Abingdonboy
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The logic of these things is always disarmingly simple but the media get themselves lost chasing their tails with figures. They never stop to ask the most fundamental questions.If you see a basic math,
As stated, India has more to gain with France then it does with Russia. Now, I don't know which side has intiated it but am I the only one that has noticed a descernable chill in Indo-Russian ties in the last 18 months? Modi has visited France 3 times, Doval has done so 4 times (that we know of), Hollande has visited India once, the French DM has visited 2/3 times etc. The Indo-Russian interaction by comparison has been minimal- almost on the level of Indo-UK interaction!Personally i would rather want AMCA to have a not just FGFA tech but also Rafale tech. and for that FGFA if it comes HAL is there. But if Rafale does not come AMCA wont get that tech, reactor tech wont come, Barracuda tech wont come to SSN program, LCA Navy program gets delayed with no one helping us solve under carriage issues ad smart cities, investments and what not...
If I was going to place bets I would find it hard to beleive that Russia comes out the winner when pitted against France, the GoI doesn't even seem to be trying to play "fair" anymore- they have a predetermined "winner" and are getting all the ducks in a row now whilst the Russians scramble around.
France just needs to get Dassualt to tow the line, I would be rather amazed if they are able to dictate policy to their government or at least interfere to at a strategic level.
@Taygibay @Vauban @halloweene
Thats how USD Ruble looks like. Ruble has devaluated so much that USD has run amok.
In simple words if in 2012 1st Jan the contratc of FGFA was estimated say at USD 25 Bn then in Rubles that was 802.875 Bn rubles.
Fast forward to present day say at 75.3835 exchange rate the ruble converted into USD is USD 10.65 Bn
Judging by talks of 12 Bn that could have happened in when USD/Ruble was in 66ish range and thats bang in December timeline when PM NaMo visited
And now talking USD 8 bn means two things.
The whole cost for the program has been revised downward
Second the cost of Ruble devaluation has helped it bring lower compared to 4 years back time.
Nice analysis bro! Indian media at its best.
And naturally the reality will be a bit more nuanced than that. The Indian side has some very shrewd negotiators so, say, what if the Indian side proposed 50% of the deal would be paid in USD and 50% in Rubles? As the above analysis doesn't take into account the true cost of the deal TO INDIA. As India's currency is not the USD but the Rupee which makes any Ruble/USD ER almost irrelevent. What you have to focus on is the relative Rupee ERs.
The Rupee/USD ER is at its highest for a while now whilst the Rupee/Ruble ER is rather favourable.
Anyway, I'm less and less convinced the FGFA will ever see the light of day now. It's 2016 now, the first FGFA prototype should have been in ASTE's hands almost 2 years ago, there is almost nothing to show as far as the FGFA project is concerned and it's ment to enter service in 6 years? Good luck with that! Russia has doubled down with the Su-35 and ordered more of them, clearly the plane the FGFA is meant to be a derivative of isn't itself coming anytime soon.
Even when Russia's economy was stagnating as opposed to in recession it was taking India for a ride, now its economy is in a tail spin how exactly do we expect the Russians to fund their share of the project? It's time India got itself away from being Russia's cash cow.