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Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

@Nilgiri @Chinese-Dragon @Blue Marlin @PARIKRAMA @Taygibay

Why i feel 36 Rafale would be the only IAF's order. (Rest made of Tejas and SU30)
At least,those 36 will be built in France. :coffee:
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Let's wait and see for more details when deal is effectively signed.
well its been hell really. even the selection process was badly setup as mentioned by @MilSpec.
the navy is get aircraft carriers with emals and india has the mig 29k which is the only carrier capable jet but it does not need a catapult only a ramp. so why why build an airfract carrier with emals when it does not have jets that need it? the rafale m will come to the indian navy which is quiet likely or the f18 hornet. also russia said they will configure the mig 29k's for emal launch. so there is some prospects left in regards for india. honestly vauban your right it will only be a jet 36 order with no likely possibility of future block orders. this will be very costly for india, quiet literally infact and it already is and it has not even landed in india.
 
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We will have to wait and see what the final deal's details are like before I will comment on the ToT, offset requirements.

Tbh, fighters are just one small part of overall Indian defense scenario. The most important things have already been "indigenized"... i.e missile hardware, basic material design + production, fuels + propellants, basic + middle level flight hardware/software....and promising advance in sensors, electronics, naval hardware and space systems.

Right now the operationalising of the production chain strategy for such things (where they are currently inefficient and highly monopolized) is the focus of the current govt....by bringing in large capable private firms at various levels and not having to saddle advanced multiple-source defence production with govt controlled enterprises only (like before).

I am very fine with running 2 major acquisitions for IAF concurrently, one more foreign based (Rafale), one more local based (LCA) till the dust firmly settles on the strategy for the next generation platforms....(in theory given what India is coming from and what India aspires to).

This is still after all the transition period, and it will last for a few more decades. Both blind Fanboys and extreme naysayers should not distract from the pragmatic reality and lofty goals. This year will be an interesting one....but I am certain it will not be "business as usual" as in the past....especially w.r.t production line for the LCA being set up.

Indian members here tend to believe in the miracle of ToT too much as if the technologies can be actually transplanted. ToT is mere a "Book" you bought, and it is up to you to read and digest it and turn the "story" into your own. Just look back in India's history of defense industries, how much you have actually benefited from all those ToTs that you paid a fortune for?

Your guys like to stand on a "moral high ground", and laugh at China's "copy and paste" effort, but it is an effective way for a technically backward country to catch up industrial leaders, especially in defense industries where nobody will actually share the core technologies with you. China and India imported Su-27/30 family Russian fighters about the same time, while India has to ask Russian to upgrade its fleet, Chinese are mass-producing J-11, J-15, J-16 with incremental improvements on each subsequent batch.

I hope, with private sector getting involved in defense industries, India will break the cycle and come up with its own advanced defense products in the near future. Just don't "sleep" on ToT.
 
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Indian members here tend to believe in the miracle of ToT too much as if the technologies can be actually transplanted. ToT is mere a "Book" you bought, and it is up to you to read and digest it and turn the "story" into your own. Just look back in India's history of defense industries, how much you have actually benefited from all those ToTs that you paid a fortune for?

Well its highly variable experience. Some were quite good (if you read up on the Sepecat Jaguar for example and the DARIN upgrade that resulted from long term intrinsic ToT combined with local research and development).

The somewhat other side from same program is in fact as far back as the 80s, India developed a local fix for the aircrafts nose landing gear issue (it would collapse quite frequently on landing) which was later claimed by the company itself and used to address aircraft under service in other countries...at no cost to them.

Same thing with Russians/USSR. All sorts of technology have permeated from the ToT signed for all Mig series production...mostly related to production side manufacturing methods. On other hand a lot of ToT for say tanks and vehicles was simply bolting on armour to tank body....but thats normally because India did not press for much massive fundamental ToT requirement there since we developed local technology already at CVRDE and other such RnD places.

The only really lacking ToT has been Jet engine technology....no one wants to part with anything too crucial so its a long term process.

There is decent knowledge and experience inflow coming in....on the balance sheet overall its ok....to get something you got to pay something....so sometimes we get a good injection of technology at very low margin and that balances the high margin "easy tech" ToT that is sometimes part of the same deal.

The main problem with Indian defence production has little to do with the ToT story but with the effective production operationalising.

This can only come with ample and consolidated investment and a balanced public-private approach to design, development and production. Before it was terribly skewed by over-relying on a few PSUs that had their own vested interests and deep rooted inefficiencies. The root cause of this approach was from the low "tech" demand from Indian armed forces given its low budget (especially on per capita terms)...so the margins were not that high to develop a consolidated defence production base. The margins (and progress) only existed where there was significant spin off effects to other sectors (like electronics, communications, power equipment, traction etc..).

For example my uncle worked (before he retired) for a company called BEL which is one of these PSUs that benefited from a lot of the spinoffs coming from the direct ToT imported from USSR (and later Ukraine) regarding battlefield communications technology. Now BEL makes very good quality sets and has even diversified to other related areas like tactical radars and WLRs by its own RnD that was spawned/enhanced from the initial ToT.

So an in depth analysis, taking into account:

a) socialist and later monopolist PSU mindset of Indian defence production

b) the time it took to really increase the defence budget to levels to provide sustainable margins and requirements...given GDP size, taxation. opportunity costs etc

...is really a very detailed and complicated thing to do....and there is no black and white answer I am afraid.

Your guys like to stand on a "moral high ground", and laugh at China's "copy and paste" effort, but it is an effective way for a technically backward country to catch up industrial leaders, especially in defense industries where nobody will actually share the core technologies with you. China and India imported Su-27/30 family Russian fighters about the same time, while India has to ask Russian to upgrade its fleet, Chinese are mass-producing J-11, J-15, J-16 with incremental improvements on each subsequent batch.

Well I am never one of those "guys". I have always been appreciative of the Chinese strategy and its one that we can learn from for sure. It is interesting to notice that Modi has been very impressed by China's defence sector and economy as a whole. Thats why there is now a big push along those lines in many industries....but we cannot go "cold turkey" so to speak....there will have to be a transition over a decade maybe (hopefully less).

There are many bright spots in Indian defence sector right now who's concepts and experience will serve as the beacon for the areas that are still stuck in the old inefficient "low absorption and lack of continued development"...so there will be an effective overhaul of all the crucial "value-added" items like aviation, propulsion and surveillance. Some will be big ticket stuff, some will be back to the basics like small arms and munitions (with added focus on Quality development, production and assurance).

I hope, with private sector getting involved in defense industries, India will break the cycle and come up with its own advanced defense products in the near future. Just don't "sleep" on ToT.

Yup I hope so too. Sleeping on ToT was the hallmark of the previous govt. This govt is slowly getting the wheels rolling in areas that have been quite resistant to better and more efficient RnD strategy and production.
 
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Why do I feel 36 Rafale would be the only IAF's order?

Are you nuts, mec? Has your inner fanboy died or something? o_O
Get 36 Rafales in IAF's hands, wait a year and collect 300+ IAF pilots clamouring to get one too! :smitten:
That simple! :p: Then the Navy guys notice the hoopla and since the letter M magically appears ...

Come on, trust your champion! Tsssk, all that self-doubting and pessimism, how very French, mon gars!

Bonsoir chez vous, Tay.
 
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36 intial fly aways got follow on order of 18,
So this initial deal itself is for 54 crafts. That's the least.

Next comes the make in India part.
 
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36 intial fly aways got follow on order of 18,
So this initial deal itself is for 54 crafts. That's the least.

Next comes the make in India part.

>next part make in India

and how long will that take to finalize that aspect? this whole process and tender has gone at a snails pace.

who is blame India or France or both?? is the relationship that toxic??


if you had went the Typhoon,Gripen, Mig-35 the whole process and cost would have been cheaper

if you went with the F-16 of F-18 the process and cost would have went even faster

I know compatibility is a big must, but I don't think Rafale is 2 to 3 times better than the other jets that were offered.
 
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The figure which look big in Euro has many components including the planes and weapons which is estimated around Euro 4Bn and the rest major support services and infrastructure, training spares etc etc which is estimated around a similar price of Euro 5 Bn. This itself makes up Euro 9 Bn which may come down by 10-15% and eventually become Euro 7.5 Bn.

On figure which may not change much but may get under different heads is customization part. Estimated around Euro 2 Bn. If India has requested for a customized Snecma M88 like say Snecma M88 - INDE over Snecma M88-4E then this itself will cost good. Bcz we operate at very extreme weather and altitudes, no one knows for sure that if Rafale has to say Cross the Himalayas what would be the effect of the same in its MTOW especially since Rafale is suppose to do more of terrain hugging low altitude flying capable.. Perhaps wary of such a move, India may have requested for a customized engine development for Indian Rafales to operate under such extreme conditions and challenging needs.

On top a new engine will mean few thing surely
  • India wont settle for just 54 for a customized engine
  • The new engine development even if its ongoing will take at least 2 years so yes Indian rafales should come in 3 years minimum
  • A increase in thrust by 5%-10% implies a much better scenario for A2A role.
@Vauban
What you are saying is a possibility but if what source says about a customised Engine requirement and others costing India a fortune and all that turns out close to truth not a gospel than the numbers have to go up as we are not so economically well off as say UAE who may want M88-9 for just 60 odd jets. Knowing India, it will order minimum 3-4 times of the deal size just to ensure this cost gets reduced via multiple platforms.

The biggest challenge perhaps is the fact that almost a decade and few years here and there back, at one point of time, India did indicate a humongous crush for Mirages. The expectation was huge, the love never seen before and a commitment in verbal terms for very high 100s in fact closer to 150s which alas broke down to just 50 odd numbers.

France is wary of a repeat of such story. And this time GOI is also playing a bit smart with at least indicating the requirement in writing so that a confidence can be given which cannot be broken. But i still believe France is not trusting us fully. Its understandable in that sense.

May be time will tell what gonna be an outcome. But if we stick with just 36+18, i have to say than India feels rich like UAE but has bank balance much less than UAE.:p:
 
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>next part make in India

and how long will that take to finalize that aspect? this whole process and tender has gone at a snails pace.

who is blame India or France or both?? is the relationship that toxic??


if you had went the Typhoon,Gripen, Mig-35 the whole process and cost would have been cheaper

if you went with the F-16 of F-18 the process and cost would have went even faster

I know compatibility is a big must, but I don't think Rafale is 2 to 3 times better than the other jets that were offered.

Typhoon is costlier
F18, 16, gripen all not sanction proof .
Rafale is costly but I guess it's sanction proof.

Regarding the pace of current deal, I think negotiations are overlapping with make in India part too..
Like the modifications needed..
 
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Or to double up on Sathya,
if you had went the Typhoon,Gripen, Mig-35 the whole process and cost would have been cheaper
if you went with the F-16 of F-18 the process and cost would have went even faster

of the 5 jets you mentioned, 4 did not make the cut in that race?
It's worth waiting for the drill you ordered to screw something ...
as even a bagful of hammers won't help much?

a commitment in verbal terms for very high 100s in fact closer to 150s which alas broke down to just 50 odd numbers.

Question, Parik : Did the Tejas not kill that?
Coming initially in 1985, the 2000H series was to be confirmed by the original MRCA, single M, that was
virtually made to fit for it?
Then the appearance of the LCA hiked the MTOW requirement to shoo away platforms too close to its
expected metrics and capacities?
Thus we got the MMRCA? Without Tejas, Dehli would have bought the offered Mirage production line.

The bet wasn't stupid but it was shot in the foot by the realities of jet fighter design and manufacture.

Good day both and all, Tay.
 
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Or to double up on Sathya,


of the 5 jets you mentioned, 4 did not make the cut in that race?
It's worth waiting for the drill you ordered to screw something ...
as even a bagful of hammers won't help much?



Question, Parik : Did the Tejas not kill that?
Coming initially in 1985, the 2000H series was to be confirmed by the original MRCA, single M, that was
virtually made to fit for it?
Then the appearance of the LCA hiked the MTOW requirement to shoo away platforms too close to its
expected metrics and capacities?
Thus we got the MMRCA? Without Tejas, Dehli would have bought the offered Mirage production line.

The bet wasn't stupid but it was shot in the foot by the realities of jet fighter design and manufacture.

Good day both and all, Tay.
my point is Rafale worth 2 to 3 times more than the worse performer??

it's India's money to spend. even i f they want to spend $20 billion on 36 jets that's on them.
 
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Typhoon is costlier
F18, 16, gripen all not sanction proof .
Rafale is costly but I guess it's sanction proof.

Regarding the pace of current deal, I think negotiations are overlapping with make in India part too..
Like the modifications needed..

See underlying the logic of having a smaller interceptor instead of heavier air-dominance fighter in air force is that it is cheaper. but it in this case whole logic goes for a toss as your light weight interceptor is 4 times costly to your heavier more powerful fighter. Indian air forces is like a spoilt child who is addicted to imported shiny toys.
 
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See underlying the logic of having a smaller interceptor instead of heavier air-dominance fighter in air force is that it is cheaper. but it in this case whole logic goes for a toss as your light weight interceptor is 4 times costly to your heavier more powerful fighter. Indian air forces is like a spoilt child who is addicted to imported shiny toys.

We are not looking for interceptor rather attack craft.
 
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my point is Rafale worth 2 to 3 times more than the worse performer??

That's a question for the 1st FW! 8-)
But I agree to your view except that the price thing is across generations of Western fighters
and other weapons and now other countries too! If the Chengdu plant had the same kind of
free press roaming around it as we have, maybe the unit price of the J-20 would be on TV?
Check prices from F-14 to Super-Hornet or consider that the EF is per program cost still a tad
pricier than the Rafale. We'll have to wait for concurrency to finish ( I'm betting a couple years after production ends :lol: )
in the F-35 one to know. Those toys go up in price according to MIC greed over reason if you ask me!
But rest assured that 20B$ is way off the chart.

Litening, Elbit HMCS, there are also integration costs that hike the tab which the client requires.
It really depends on what the IAF wants to do with those planes. I haven't seen their new tactics book?

A few more weeks, fingers crossed mate!
Good evening, Tay.
 
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my point is Rafale worth 2 to 3 times more than the worse performer??
Irrelevent. It's like saying, the Rafale cost 100 times more than a Cessna so just get the Cessna. Only 2 products met the 600+ requirements- Typhoon and Rafale, end of story. Bringing in products that didn't meet the criteria is a slippery slope.

And the 2-3 times figure you are quoting is pure conjecture, we have no idea at this point what the true cost to the IAF will be, I'm still expecting a price that is not too dissimilar to what the FrAF are paying for their Rafales.
 
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