Crimea gave China a pause on SCS- My POV

[Foggy_Bottom]

While not making light of the turmoil, deaths and terrible tragedy that is taking place in Crimea- Not all is bad that came out of the invasion.

For the longest, many of us were wondering how aggresive would China get in the SCS. Would they muscle themselves into annexing islands and taking up more waters as a part of their ecosystem. Even those of us who have spent decades within various foreign policy agencies, were scouring for any hints of what next. We were having a difficult time predicting the extent China would go to, and frankly how soon.

What was worse was that we had disjointed answers or solutions that we would recommend. From the extremes of suggesting we deploy our ships in the areas we felt would be of the greatest risk- after all we had the countries that were threatened, privately almost begging us to come to their aid . To simply building up the military capabilities of those nations most affected to 'sanctions'.

Never in our dreams would we have imaged Crimea taking place, and although “sanctions” were a tool we had at the back of our minds.. We were not sure of Europe and NATO going along with us is making any such sanctions, as being effective.

Simply put the world is intertwined and dependent on each other for its economies and China plays a vital role in those dependencies.

China beware:
Then Crimea happened, and although excruciating slow at the beginning, Europe and US came together much stronger, with a great deal of help from our allies in the middle east, to prove that we would not allow Russia to simply annex parts of another country.

Europe showed a lot of fortitude in taking the brunt of risks. Unlike the U.S., it was Europe that had a lot to lose from a Russian blowback with it being more dependent on Russia's oil and gas resources.

The subsequent fortitude showed has got the Chinese diplomats and regime thinking twice. Should they imagine a muscle into the South China Sea, oddly based on the notion of some homemade maps and a 9 dashed line theory- it will then have to contend with going up against a strong response from U.S and its allies.

Daniel Russel, US point man for East Asia said “"The net effect is to put more pressure on China to demonstrate that it remains committed to the peaceful resolution of the problems," Russel, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Russel said the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and others should have a "chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model."

We got your debt in our palms
The threat of it holding U.S debt, while not insignificant or really that large- would not much matter. You see the Chinese would be cutting their own foot if they risked any such economic calamity as it needs these markets to do well, to keep its economic engines going. Messing with Uncle Sam is not just easy and he comes with a lot of friends. This why you don't see the Russians selling off its assets and bonds in the U.S.

Added to this the world is watching the outcome of the case that was filed against China by the Philippines at The Hague. Although China at the offset, like a petulant child, declared it would not adhere to the rulings. A favorable ruling would give Philippines the PR victory in its legitimacy over China’s claims. And it would add more legitimacy to the rest of us, on the sidelines.

 

[Genesis]

PR victory, well good for the Philippines, they should put that on their wall, cause that's about the only victory they ever had.

China doesn't need to annex South China Sea, what would we do with it even if we could? We want to challenge the US, and right now is not the time to do so, regardless of Crimea and after math.

The dispute started in 2007 and if we were to go back to the original date, it was in the 70s. It's not a recent dispute, if this year is Crimea effect what was the other 40 odd years or 5-6 years depending on how you count.

I'm going to have to do a write up on the building up capabilities of our neighbors later, this is ridicules, we had a bad year this year, by our standard, but it's still far more productive than even India.

Two "AEGIS" ships entered service, 4 more launched, well more than 2 cause 052C is also entering service. 4th 071 launched, 2 10,000 ton coast guard ships launched 1000-5,000 ton coast guard ships entering service left right and center.

There's much more like J-20,31, 10, 16, 15, et al. Missiles, hypersonic vehicles, and much more.

Future of air cav units in high altitude areas in Z-18 is finalized and entering mass production.

Put all our neighbors together, and they can't match this year alone with 10 years, and increasing their capability sounds like an option. Wow, just wow.

I'll keep going later, maybe

 

[BuddhaPalm]

We already spanked USS Cowpens in the South China Sea. Right after USA bragged about protecting Philippines from Chinese attack, we invaded Scarborough Shoal. USA could only protest and cry about it. Vietnam was next on our hit list. We spanked them so hard the VCP was almost overthrown. If USN wants to feed fishes in South China Sea, they are welcome to enter the dragon's lair! Our nukes are ready to wipe out every single man, woman and child in America. Only weaklings play economic sanction games. We go straight for the megaton air burst above Manhattan.

 

[Raphael]

For someone who was formerly a goon in the US State Department, this is some really shabby second-rate propaganda, full of logical holes and unbelievable speculations about China's thought process. Maybe that's why you don't work there any more? Your "analysis" wouldn't even be fit for the comment section at "Voice of America", where monkeys slinging feces at each other would pass for enlightened discourse.

The reality is Russia muscled in on Crimea and the US could only look on helplessly like a cuckold. All the cheerleaders in Eastern Europe were expecting Superman to swoop and push Russia behind the Urals, and instead, they found triumphant Russians in fact inching towards them, ready to assume their Cold War borders. The world also got to see what happens to a when a country with a stable geopolitical orbit, like Ukraine prior to 2014, makes a sudden and demented lurch towards whoring themselves out to the US, and that outcome is civil war, death and economic collapse.

The results speak for themselves. The Central European countries, with the exception of Poland, after an initial outburst, have suddenly decided to prioritize relations with Russia. McCain, true to his notorious reputation as a hothead, was so furious at the Hungarian PM for failing to follow the US-written script that he called him a "neo-fascist dictator". This is the kind of tantrum we would expect the most destitute banana republics to throw, and yet it was seemingly the "leader of the free world" who lost its cool . People in the Balkans are also furious that the EU sabotaged their chance to score cheap Russian gas via the South stream pipeline and consequently have condemned them to total economic penury.

The sanctions "BS" has been totally overplayed - sanctions were applied the moment Russia moved into Ukraine, and yet only recently has Russia shown any sign of breaking a sweat. That's because the US played the only card in its hand: pressuring Saudi Arabia to boost the output of oil, and thereby giving an abortion to its nascent shale oil industry. Once Russia rides this tide over with China's assistance (see China Buys Record Russia Crude as Putin Seeks to Avoid Recession - Bloomberg) the US will be totally out of options, and staring down a revanchist Russia hungry for blood.

Anyway, as faulty as his propaganda is, the OP was nevertheless right in that Crimea set two important precedents. The first was that countries can restore their territorial integrity, denied to them by the errors of history, if the right opportunity comes along. The second is that the US is a paper tiger: it huffs and puffs about allowing its cronies and prostitute states to keep their illegitimate territories looted from others, but when the shooting starts, they will tread very cautiously.

If anything, Crimea only accelerated China's schedule for restoring its territorial integrity in the South China Sea. What was once planned for maybe the 2040's and 2050's has now been pushed forward by decades. China has been reclaiming land and building airstrips in the SCS, and whereas the US might have once interposed a mighty carrier group to stop China, the post-Crimea US, cuckolded by Russia, can only summon the strength to issue a plea for a hiatus on construction. Certain prostitute states around the rim of the SCS thought they had bagged such an intimidating, muscular sugar daddy client, only to find out now that this bad boy is way past his prime .

@ChineseTiger1986
@Chinese-Dragon, @TaiShang, @AgentOrange, @Keel, @senheiser, @vostok

 

[vostok]

For someone who was formerly a goon in the US State Department, this is some really shabby second-rate propaganda, full of logical holes and unbelievable speculations about China's thought process. Maybe that's why you don't work there any more? Your "analysis" wouldn't even be fit for the comment section at "Voice of America", where monkeys slinging feces at each other would pass for enlightened discourse.

The reality is Russia muscled in on Crimea and the US could only look on helplessly like a cuckold. All the cheerleaders in Eastern Europe were expecting Superman to swoop and push Russia behind the Urals, and instead, they found triumphant Russians in fact inching towards them, ready to assume their Cold War borders. The world also got to see what happens to a when a country with a stable geopolitical orbit, like Ukraine prior to 2014, makes a sudden and demented lurch towards whoring themselves out to the US, and that outcome is civil war, death and economic collapse.

The results speak for themselves. The Central European countries, with the exception of Poland, after an initial outburst, have suddenly decided to prioritize relations with Russia. McCain, true to his notorious reputation as a hothead, was so furious at the Hungarian PM for failing to follow the US-written script that he called him a "neo-fascist dictator". This is the kind of tantrum we would expect the most destitute banana republics to throw, and yet it was seemingly the "leader of the free world" who lost its cool . People in the Balkans are also furious that the EU sabotaged their chance to score cheap Russian gas via the South stream pipeline and consequently have condemned them to total economic penury.

The sanctions "BS" has been totally overplayed - sanctions were applied the moment Russia moved into Ukraine, and yet only recently has Russia shown any sign of breaking a sweat. That's because the US played the only card in its hand: pressuring Saudi Arabia to boost the output of oil, and thereby giving an abortion to its nascent shale oil industry. Once Russia rides this tide over with China's assistance (see China Buys Record Russia Crude as Putin Seeks to Avoid Recession - Bloomberg) the US will be totally out of options, and staring down a revanchist Russia hungry for blood.

Anyway, as faulty as his propaganda is, the OP was nevertheless right in that Crimea set two important precedents. The first was that countries can restore their territorial integrity, denied to them by the errors of history, if the right opportunity comes along. The second is that the US is a paper tiger: it huffs and puffs about allowing its cronies and prostitute states to keep their illegitimate territories looted from others, but when the shooting starts, they will tread very cautiously.

If anything, Crimea only accelerated China's schedule for restoring its territorial integrity in the South China Sea. What was once planned for maybe the 2040's and 2050's has now been pushed forward by decades. China has been reclaiming land and building airstrips in the SCS, and whereas the US might have once interposed a mighty carrier group to stop China, the post-Crimea US, cuckolded by Russia, can only summon the strength to issue a plea for a hiatus on construction. Certain prostitute states around the rim of the SCS thought they had bagged such an intimidating, muscular sugar daddy client, only to find out now that this bad boy is way past his prime .

@ChineseTiger1986
@Chinese-Dragon, @TaiShang, @AgentOrange, @Keel, @senheiser, @vostok

I agree with all. Except "revanchist Russia, hungry for blood."
There is no revanchist Russia. Russia just live in the world and try to develop. If the United States thought that the victory in the Cold War - this is the end of history, they are severely mistaken. In fact, it was a retreat into strategic depth. And now begins the return of the lost positions.

 

[Sanchez]

US formerly declared that they have no opinions about the sovereignty issues on SCS but push their small pinoy boys and viets to challenge the position of China. If you are so ignorant and blind about the history of SCS or the sovereignty of Philippines, wtf do you want to talk sh't here? Bring some old US maps and show us how the territory borders of Philippine was defined by the US colonists. It's no longer OK for you cowboys screwing around the world.

 

[AgentOrange]

For someone who was formerly a goon in the US State Department, this is some really shabby second-rate propaganda, full of logical holes and unbelievable speculations about China's thought process. Maybe that's why you don't work there any more?

Maybe he was a janitor at the State Department? Technically that would still make him a "retired state department worker" with tons of classified insight - i.e. he knows what the Secretary of State had for lunch when he cleans up the toilets after work. Of course this would also explain his out-of-touch conclusions despite his claimed "decades of experience."

Certain prostitute states around the rim of the SCS thought they had bagged such an intimidating, muscular sugar daddy client, only to find out now that this bad boy is way past his prime

Not only that, but those aforementioned nations thought that with their new pimp, they could afford to become more muscular in their foreign policy. Only to find out support for their deeds is limited to a few vague and non-committal utterances. Thoroughly disabused of any chance at a quick land grab, those banana republics now resort to non-enforceable kangaroo courts in the hopes of drawing a world's attention that's fixated elsewhere and on more important things.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

For someone who was formerly a goon in the US State Department, this is some really shabby second-rate propaganda, full of logical holes and unbelievable speculations about China's thought process. Maybe that's why you don't work there any more? Your "analysis" wouldn't even be fit for the comment section at "Voice of America", where monkeys slinging feces at each other would pass for enlightened discourse.

The reality is Russia muscled in on Crimea and the US could only look on helplessly like a cuckold. All the cheerleaders in Eastern Europe were expecting Superman to swoop and push Russia behind the Urals, and instead, they found triumphant Russians in fact inching towards them, ready to assume their Cold War borders. The world also got to see what happens to a when a country with a stable geopolitical orbit, like Ukraine prior to 2014, makes a sudden and demented lurch towards whoring themselves out to the US, and that outcome is civil war, death and economic collapse.

The results speak for themselves. The Central European countries, with the exception of Poland, after an initial outburst, have suddenly decided to prioritize relations with Russia. McCain, true to his notorious reputation as a hothead, was so furious at the Hungarian PM for failing to follow the US-written script that he called him a "neo-fascist dictator". This is the kind of tantrum we would expect the most destitute banana republics to throw, and yet it was seemingly the "leader of the free world" who lost its cool . People in the Balkans are also furious that the EU sabotaged their chance to score cheap Russian gas via the South stream pipeline and consequently have condemned them to total economic penury.

The sanctions "BS" has been totally overplayed - sanctions were applied the moment Russia moved into Ukraine, and yet only recently has Russia shown any sign of breaking a sweat. That's because the US played the only card in its hand: pressuring Saudi Arabia to boost the output of oil, and thereby giving an abortion to its nascent shale oil industry. Once Russia rides this tide over with China's assistance (see China Buys Record Russia Crude as Putin Seeks to Avoid Recession - Bloomberg) the US will be totally out of options, and staring down a revanchist Russia hungry for blood.

Anyway, as faulty as his propaganda is, the OP was nevertheless right in that Crimea set two important precedents. The first was that countries can restore their territorial integrity, denied to them by the errors of history, if the right opportunity comes along. The second is that the US is a paper tiger: it huffs and puffs about allowing its cronies and prostitute states to keep their illegitimate territories looted from others, but when the shooting starts, they will tread very cautiously.

If anything, Crimea only accelerated China's schedule for restoring its territorial integrity in the South China Sea. What was once planned for maybe the 2040's and 2050's has now been pushed forward by decades. China has been reclaiming land and building airstrips in the SCS, and whereas the US might have once interposed a mighty carrier group to stop China, the post-Crimea US, cuckolded by Russia, can only summon the strength to issue a plea for a hiatus on construction. Certain prostitute states around the rim of the SCS thought they had bagged such an intimidating, muscular sugar daddy client, only to find out now that this bad boy is way past his prime .

@ChineseTiger1986
@Chinese-Dragon, @TaiShang, @AgentOrange, @Keel, @senheiser, @vostok

You know @US_statedept_retired is actually an Indian right?

Plenty of senior members here, including several of my fellow Think Tanks have noticed that he posts exactly like the other Indian members here, and takes the Indian line on almost everything.

He also has an extremely poor knowledge of basic geopolitics. He thought that my city Hong Kong was a disputed territory, and classed it with Kashmir while he was attacking some of the Pakistani members here.

 

[AgentOrange]

You know @US_statedept_retired is actually an Indian right?

Plenty of senior members here, including several of my fellow Think Tanks have noticed that he posts exactly like the other Indian members here, and takes the Indian line on almost everything.

He also has an extremely poor knowledge of basic geopolitics. He thought that my city Hong Kong was a disputed territory, and classed it with Kashmir while he was attacking some of the Pakistani members here.

That's what I thought also. US_statedept_retired is a fraud. IMO, it should be a bannable offense to pose as a professional of any sort in the hopes of lending false credibility to an argument. @Horus

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

For someone who was formerly a goon in the US State Department, this is some really shabby second-rate propaganda, full of logical holes and unbelievable speculations about China's thought process. Maybe that's why you don't work there any more? Your "analysis" wouldn't even be fit for the comment section at "Voice of America", where monkeys slinging feces at each other would pass for enlightened discourse.

The reality is Russia muscled in on Crimea and the US could only look on helplessly like a cuckold. All the cheerleaders in Eastern Europe were expecting Superman to swoop and push Russia behind the Urals, and instead, they found triumphant Russians in fact inching towards them, ready to assume their Cold War borders. The world also got to see what happens to a when a country with a stable geopolitical orbit, like Ukraine prior to 2014, makes a sudden and demented lurch towards whoring themselves out to the US, and that outcome is civil war, death and economic collapse.

The results speak for themselves. The Central European countries, with the exception of Poland, after an initial outburst, have suddenly decided to prioritize relations with Russia. McCain, true to his notorious reputation as a hothead, was so furious at the Hungarian PM for failing to follow the US-written script that he called him a "neo-fascist dictator". This is the kind of tantrum we would expect the most destitute banana republics to throw, and yet it was seemingly the "leader of the free world" who lost its cool . People in the Balkans are also furious that the EU sabotaged their chance to score cheap Russian gas via the South stream pipeline and consequently have condemned them to total economic penury.

The sanctions "BS" has been totally overplayed - sanctions were applied the moment Russia moved into Ukraine, and yet only recently has Russia shown any sign of breaking a sweat. That's because the US played the only card in its hand: pressuring Saudi Arabia to boost the output of oil, and thereby giving an abortion to its nascent shale oil industry. Once Russia rides this tide over with China's assistance (see China Buys Record Russia Crude as Putin Seeks to Avoid Recession - Bloomberg) the US will be totally out of options, and staring down a revanchist Russia hungry for blood.

Anyway, as faulty as his propaganda is, the OP was nevertheless right in that Crimea set two important precedents. The first was that countries can restore their territorial integrity, denied to them by the errors of history, if the right opportunity comes along. The second is that the US is a paper tiger: it huffs and puffs about allowing its cronies and prostitute states to keep their illegitimate territories looted from others, but when the shooting starts, they will tread very cautiously.

If anything, Crimea only accelerated China's schedule for restoring its territorial integrity in the South China Sea. What was once planned for maybe the 2040's and 2050's has now been pushed forward by decades. China has been reclaiming land and building airstrips in the SCS, and whereas the US might have once interposed a mighty carrier group to stop China, the post-Crimea US, cuckolded by Russia, can only summon the strength to issue a plea for a hiatus on construction. Certain prostitute states around the rim of the SCS thought they had bagged such an intimidating, muscular sugar daddy client, only to find out now that this bad boy is way past his prime .

@ChineseTiger1986
@Chinese-Dragon, @TaiShang, @AgentOrange, @Keel, @senheiser, @vostok

Beauty they say is in the eye of the beholder. But beauty in the case of the Chinese, we say, is in the voice of the masters letter. You act like the new rich, you know like hillbillies who just got some new wealth. Let me put up some quick counter arguments and lay some facts on the table.

• Ukraine is not a NATO ally nor did we have any treaty in place like we have with Taiwan, to protect it. Those living outside the Chinese sphere of influence would know the obvious reasons to why the U.S. did not militarily intervene. Why intervene when we have the power to make them pay dearly. That is why after all your bluster you don't dare to take on Taiwan, a country we have a treaty obligation to protect, while only seemingly to put up weak protests while we keep arming them. Just recently we ignored you like a redheaded stepchild, and added more to its arsenal.
• To a realistic, they would see that after we've managed to break up the USSR, we got most of its union members into our fold. To even a semi-literate it would undoubtedly look like more and more countries are lurching towards the U.S. HELL! even Cuba now is " lurching" into the U.S arms.
• On the flip side, the one's you chose to partner with, an eclectic group of who's who of troubled states, like Iraq, Libya, Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, North Korea.... should I go on? Have each seen them sidelined in the world or are floundering in the wind under U.S pressures OR have come into our fold.

Everytime you go hope a country shows any allegiance to you, throw your veto powers to protect either their despots or terrorists groups. They are left to face the music from the west- with you being sidelined.​

• Ukraine was pro Russia till their own internal struggles and people wanted another way. Something I don't expect you understand because of the brutal annihilation of any dissent in China, . See, nobody in the world says we want to have an union based on the one existing in China.

Moving on

Sanctions has not been overplayed nor is it somehow lessened because its showing up to be effective, now. Sanctions are the death knell, tolling its bells at Russia, .........and there is a lot more to come.

As to China buying Russian oil and gas, well- that has been in the works for a decade now. It helps China reduce its dependence on coal. It's not something new you have done to show solidarity in this crisis. You trying to spin it as such, is based on pure ignorance in knowing how long this deal has been around & in the works

Couple of quick points on the tardiness regrading sanctions. A. No sanction shows up and hurts the economy right away. It always take a couple of quarters , sometimes longer, to play out its effects B. The sanctions were staggered, with hard hitting ones coming in much later in the cycle.

Oil production was not boosted by Saudis, rather they refuse to lower it. Nor did we pressure them one bit on it. Now, I don't expect you to know this because let's face it- the bossman has not brought you up to speed, and since you will never bother to actually research the reasons behind the fall in prices- Well, the result is that we read yet another ignorant claim made by you

The reasons for drop in oil prices are many:.
1. The U.S., if you have not heard from the Minister of Talking points, has increased its shale oil production by an additional 4 million barrels per day. For the first time the U.S. is no longer importing oil form Nigeria and imports from OPEC have been cut in half.

2. Libya, yes that libya where you had many investments, to only helplessly watch it collapse by NATO- has increased its oil production to near 800,000 barrels much sooner than expected, and are poised to reach 1 million barrels per day, quickly.

3. Then OPEC has a problem. Saudis and its partners are at a price war among themselves and it sure helps the rest.

Finally we have a host other smaller contributing factors including a weak economic outlook in Europe

SCS
For now you are grabbing pretty insignificant pieces of land strips and I will even give you that have room for a bit more bold moves within.; But anything more, beware China.

Oh and one more thing. In a cuckold relationship all parties agree to the 'screwing' over. It is NOT about one helplessly watching the other two, rather it is about that 'one' enjoying it too. You should have known better since some of your politicians were caught in cuckold relationship- with their pictures splashed all over the net.

 

[Zerozen]

I agree with all. Except "revanchist Russia, hungry for blood."
There is no revanchist Russia. Russia just live in the world and try to develop. If the United States thought that the victory in the Cold War - this is the end of history, they are severely mistaken. In fact, it was a retreat into strategic depth. And now begins the return of the lost positions.

You can sugar and honey coated if you want. Soviet Union is no more and its dissolution was a catastrophe to itself

 

[vostok]

You can sugar and honey coated if you want. Soviet Union is no more and its dissolution was a catastrophe to itself

Where I said that the Soviet Union still exists? We are creating new Union of nations, Eurasian Union.

 

[American_Millenium]

For someone who was formerly a goon in the US State Department, this is some really shabby second-rate propaganda, full of logical holes and unbelievable speculations about China's thought process. Maybe that's why you don't work there any more? Your "analysis" wouldn't even be fit for the comment section at "Voice of America", where monkeys slinging feces at each other would pass for enlightened discourse.

The reality is Russia muscled in on Crimea and the US could only look on helplessly like a cuckold. All the cheerleaders in Eastern Europe were expecting Superman to swoop and push Russia behind the Urals, and instead, they found triumphant Russians in fact inching towards them, ready to assume their Cold War borders. The world also got to see what happens to a when a country with a stable geopolitical orbit, like Ukraine prior to 2014, makes a sudden and demented lurch towards whoring themselves out to the US, and that outcome is civil war, death and economic collapse.

The results speak for themselves. The Central European countries, with the exception of Poland, after an initial outburst, have suddenly decided to prioritize relations with Russia. McCain, true to his notorious reputation as a hothead, was so furious at the Hungarian PM for failing to follow the US-written script that he called him a "neo-fascist dictator". This is the kind of tantrum we would expect the most destitute banana republics to throw, and yet it was seemingly the "leader of the free world" who lost its cool . People in the Balkans are also furious that the EU sabotaged their chance to score cheap Russian gas via the South stream pipeline and consequently have condemned them to total economic penury.

The sanctions "BS" has been totally overplayed - sanctions were applied the moment Russia moved into Ukraine, and yet only recently has Russia shown any sign of breaking a sweat. That's because the US played the only card in its hand: pressuring Saudi Arabia to boost the output of oil, and thereby giving an abortion to its nascent shale oil industry. Once Russia rides this tide over with China's assistance (see China Buys Record Russia Crude as Putin Seeks to Avoid Recession - Bloomberg) the US will be totally out of options, and staring down a revanchist Russia hungry for blood.

Anyway, as faulty as his propaganda is, the OP was nevertheless right in that Crimea set two important precedents. The first was that countries can restore their territorial integrity, denied to them by the errors of history, if the right opportunity comes along. The second is that the US is a paper tiger: it huffs and puffs about allowing its cronies and prostitute states to keep their illegitimate territories looted from others, but when the shooting starts, they will tread very cautiously.

If anything, Crimea only accelerated China's schedule for restoring its territorial integrity in the South China Sea. What was once planned for maybe the 2040's and 2050's has now been pushed forward by decades. China has been reclaiming land and building airstrips in the SCS, and whereas the US might have once interposed a mighty carrier group to stop China, the post-Crimea US, cuckolded by Russia, can only summon the strength to issue a plea for a hiatus on construction. Certain prostitute states around the rim of the SCS thought they had bagged such an intimidating, muscular sugar daddy client, only to find out now that this bad boy is way past his prime .

@ChineseTiger1986
@Chinese-Dragon, @TaiShang, @AgentOrange, @Keel, @senheiser, @vostok

China will not be able to stem the fall of Russia, but let's say it somehow does.

Doesn't change the fact that Russia is a $2 trillion economy while NATO is a $35 trillion economy. No comparison. The only reason that Russia doesn't look like Italy or Spain geo-politically or militarily is because they are the successor state to the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had a population significantly LARGER than America (rather than 50% smaller) and was spending, for decades, the same dollar amount as the US on their military. Today they are left with thousands of surplus equipment of every variety, which is why their numbers in all categories (whether they be MBT's and APC's, or fighter aircraft and submarines) are significant and comparable to the US.

The Soviet Union had a GDP 60% the size of the US at it's height, and spent 3-4x more of it's GDP on it's military than the US. That comes out to literally TWICE or THRICE the military spending of the US in some years. Now it's GDP is 10-15% the size of the US and spends 1.0x-1.2x more of it's GDP on it's military than the US. So yes, it's might carried on to Russia, which continued to maintain the great majority of it's military equipment. Now, this equipment is old, in reserve and/or storage, not well-maintained in any reasonable sense, and even worse, is quickly becoming obsolete. And those replacements that are being fielded are not being fielded in numbers befit of the Soviet Union/United States, but at the level of a $2-$4 trillion economy.

All you have to do is take a look at the number of modern tanks, fighter aircraft, attack submarines, etc. that Russia has. Most Russian equipment was introduced pre-1992, and the equipment that was not is fielded in numbers comparable to the United Kingdom or France.

So look out for Russia to slowly, but inexorably continue to decline, as they replace their obsolete equipment (which is falling apart anyway due to lack of funds for maintenance, spare parts, and upgrades) with 1/10th what is needed to compete with the US, and 1/20th what is needed to compete with NATO. And the demographic problem doesn't do Russia any favors either. It's one of the handful of countries on the planet where the population is experiencing a net decrease per annum.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

China will not be able to stem the fall of Russia, but let's say it somehow does.

Doesn't change the fact that Russia is a $2 trillion economy while NATO is a $35 trillion economy. No comparison. The only reason that Russia doesn't look like Italy or Spain geo-politically or militarily is because they are the successor state to the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had a population significantly LARGER than America (rather than 50% smaller) and was spending, for decades, 20% more on their military. Today they are left with thousands of surplus equipment of every variety, which is why their numbers in all categories (whether they be MBT's and APC's, or fighter aircraft and submarines) are significant and comparable to the US.

NATO is a $35 billion economy with a over $40 trillion and growing debt. Germany is right now the healthiest amongst them all and yet we, too, are debt ridden and can barely support our southern neighbours.

 

[American_Millenium]

NATO is a $35 billion economy with a over $40 trillion and growing debt. Germany is right now the healthiest amongst them all and yet we, too, are debt ridden and can barely support our southern neighbours.

And yet the great majority of the debt is owed to.... yourselves. Public debt means nothing, zero, zilch, nada.