While not making light of the turmoil, deaths and terrible tragedy that is taking place in Crimea- Not all is bad that came out of the invasion.
For the longest, many of us were wondering how aggresive would China get in the SCS. Would they muscle themselves into annexing islands and taking up more waters as a part of their ecosystem. Even those of us who have spent decades within various foreign policy agencies, were scouring for any hints of what next. We were having a difficult time predicting the extent China would go to, and frankly how soon.
What was worse was that we had disjointed answers or solutions that we would recommend. From the extremes of suggesting we deploy our ships in the areas we felt would be of the greatest risk- after all we had the countries that were threatened, privately almost begging us to come to their aid . To simply building up the military capabilities of those nations most affected to 'sanctions'.
Never in our dreams would we have imaged Crimea taking place, and although “sanctions” were a tool we had at the back of our minds.. We were not sure of Europe and NATO going along with us is making any such sanctions, as being effective.
Simply put the world is intertwined and dependent on each other for its economies and China plays a vital role in those dependencies.
China beware:
Then Crimea happened, and although excruciating slow at the beginning, Europe and US came together much stronger, with a great deal of help from our allies in the middle east, to prove that we would not allow Russia to simply annex parts of another country.
Europe showed a lot of fortitude in taking the brunt of risks. Unlike the U.S., it was Europe that had a lot to lose from a Russian blowback with it being more dependent on Russia's oil and gas resources.
The subsequent fortitude showed has got the Chinese diplomats and regime thinking twice. Should they imagine a muscle into the South China Sea, oddly based on the notion of some homemade maps and a 9 dashed line theory- it will then have to contend with going up against a strong response from U.S and its allies.
Daniel Russel, US point man for East Asia said “"The net effect is to put more pressure on China to demonstrate that it remains committed to the peaceful resolution of the problems," Russel, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Russel said the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and others should have a "chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model."
We got your debt in our palms
The threat of it holding U.S debt, while not insignificant or really that large- would not much matter. You see the Chinese would be cutting their own foot if they risked any such economic calamity as it needs these markets to do well, to keep its economic engines going. Messing with Uncle Sam is not just easy and he comes with a lot of friends. This why you don't see the Russians selling off its assets and bonds in the U.S.
Added to this the world is watching the outcome of the case that was filed against China by the Philippines at The Hague. Although China at the offset, like a petulant child, declared it would not adhere to the rulings. A favorable ruling would give Philippines the PR victory in its legitimacy over China’s claims. And it would add more legitimacy to the rest of us, on the sidelines.
In 15-20 years China can actually become another "Could have been a global superpower" case. I can list the reasons if you want.
