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Crimea gave China a pause on SCS- My POV

And yet the great majority of the debt is owed to.... yourselves. Public debt means nothing, zero, zilch, nada.

Yes, but not our neighbours. Greece can never ever pay back its debts. Even if we owe our own debts, they, too, must be paid back sometimes. If not us, it will be our children. We have to behave at least responsibly to our next generations.
 
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While not making light of the turmoil, deaths and terrible tragedy that is taking place in Crimea- Not all is bad that came out of the invasion.

For the longest, many of us were wondering how aggresive would China get in the SCS. Would they muscle themselves into annexing islands and taking up more waters as a part of their ecosystem. Even those of us who have spent decades within various foreign policy agencies, were scouring for any hints of what next. We were having a difficult time predicting the extent China would go to, and frankly how soon.

What was worse was that we had disjointed answers or solutions that we would recommend. From the extremes of suggesting we deploy our ships in the areas we felt would be of the greatest risk- after all we had the countries that were threatened, privately almost begging us to come to their aid . To simply building up the military capabilities of those nations most affected to 'sanctions'.

Never in our dreams would we have imaged Crimea taking place, and although “sanctions” were a tool we had at the back of our minds.. We were not sure of Europe and NATO going along with us is making any such sanctions, as being effective.

Simply put the world is intertwined and dependent on each other for its economies and China plays a vital role in those dependencies.

China beware:
Then Crimea happened, and although excruciating slow at the beginning, Europe and US came together much stronger, with a great deal of help from our allies in the middle east, to prove that we would not allow Russia to simply annex parts of another country.

Europe showed a lot of fortitude in taking the brunt of risks. Unlike the U.S., it was Europe that had a lot to lose from a Russian blowback with it being more dependent on Russia's oil and gas resources.

The subsequent fortitude showed has got the Chinese diplomats and regime thinking twice. Should they imagine a muscle into the South China Sea, oddly based on the notion of some homemade maps and a 9 dashed line theory- it will then have to contend with going up against a strong response from U.S and its allies.

Daniel Russel, US point man for East Asia said “"The net effect is to put more pressure on China to demonstrate that it remains committed to the peaceful resolution of the problems," Russel, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Russel said the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and others should have a "chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model."


We got your debt in our palms
The threat of it holding U.S debt, while not insignificant or really that large- would not much matter. You see the Chinese would be cutting their own foot if they risked any such economic calamity as it needs these markets to do well, to keep its economic engines going. Messing with Uncle Sam is not just easy and he comes with a lot of friends. This why you don't see the Russians selling off its assets and bonds in the U.S.

Added to this the world is watching the outcome of the case that was filed against China by the Philippines at The Hague. Although China at the offset, like a petulant child, declared it would not adhere to the rulings. A favorable ruling would give Philippines the PR victory in its legitimacy over China’s claims. And it would add more legitimacy to the rest of us, on the sidelines.

Erm, RP victory? In order to be a victory in a court case, there has to be a case first. You are jumping quite a few steps ahead.

Also, I would like to request the writer of the article to go back to basic history of international treaties. US has been laying economic sanctions on China since 1949. Many of them are still in effect today and you can see exactly how well it has worked.

Well, consider your flag, I will also state another point. You, English or US, are not representatives of European states. France and Germany are the actual pillars of EU opinions.
 
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Another case of US/ western foreign affair disaster but painted by pro western as a victory? :lol:

Next time, we will heard something like Iraq 2003 and US afganistan war are a complete success. Peace and prosperity in both countries and US intervention is a God bless BS from some sick head. :lol:
 
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Where I said that the Soviet Union still exists? We are creating new Union of nations, Eurasian Union.
Eurasian union is just economic union. Most members of it don't want Russian political power. Just trade union. They had enough from the Soviet horrors.
 
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Another case of US/ western foreign affair disaster but painted by pro western as a victory? :lol:

Next time, we will heard something like Iraq 2003 and US afganistan war are a complete success. Peace and prosperity in both countries and US intervention is a God bless BS from some sick head. :lol:

Many including your bosses would say that the U.S. being successful at simply changing regimes in those two countries, and getting a permanent U.S. presence in them is a U.S. victory. Especially in Afghanistan where we now are sitting in your backyard.

Watch us circle you. ;)
 
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Many including your bosses would say that the U.S. being successful at simply changing regimes in those two countries, and getting a permanent U.S. presence in them is a U.S. victory. Especially in Afghanistan where we now are sitting in your backyard.

Watch us circle you. ;)

:lol:

Another self comforting assessment. We already watch how US squander its fortune build up by Clinton and if afganistan stay is so strategic, why US policy maker is so desperate to exit all troops from there? :lol:
 
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:lol:

Another self comforting assessment. We already watch how US squander its fortune build up by Clinton and if afganistan stay is so strategic, why US policy maker is so desperate to exit all troops from there? :lol:

We are still leaving a force behind, will have a substantial presence, and have signed SOFA agreement with Afghanistan.

Someday you will catch up to actual information available to the free world.
 
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Never in our dreams would we have imaged Crimea taking place -
Whaaa....? How, after Georgia, could you possibly miss it? You know that with the Georgia escapade Putin grasped the ancient Russia-steals-from-the-weak meme for his own. Consequently all potential border conflicts, from the Caucasus to the Arctic, from Danzig Bay to Big Diomede, should have been reviewed and evaluated immediately. Did Condoleeza Rice really not order this? How could you guys have missed the immense risk/reward calculation of political, economic, and military gain to Putin by his stealing back Crimea from a putative ally/easily compromised enemy? Did you really think after Georgia that any treaty would stop him?
 
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Whaaa....? How, after Georgia, could you possibly miss it? You know that with the Georgia escapade Putin grasped the ancient Russia-steals-from-the-weak meme for his own. Consequently all potential border conflicts, from the Caucasus to the Arctic, from Danzig Bay to Big Diomede, should have been reviewed and evaluated immediately. Did Condoleeza Rice really not order this? How could you guys have missed the immense risk/reward calculation of political, economic, and military gain to Putin by his stealing back Crimea from a putative ally/easily compromised enemy? Did you really think after Georgia that any treaty would stop him?

Because unlike Georgia , Ukraine had a pro russian head of state in place. We did not see the uprising having such a 180 effect that lead to putin's actions.
 
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Because unlike Georgia , Ukraine had a pro russian head of state in place. We did not see the uprising having such a 180 effect that lead to putin's actions.
Gaaaahhhh! Czechezslovakia! Afghanistan! Russians like to attack weak pro-Russian allies and install puppets. (You know their crude joke about allies, women, and beatings, I presume.) Plus you forgot that once self-isolated by seizing control of political media the Kremlin necessarily resumed being self-referential and obsessive: once they got hung up on something they'd stay hung up on it, bringing to bear all resources deemed necessary to "fix" matters, rather than stopping to think that their perceptions or priorities were to blame.

Good grief, twenty years without the USSR and Kremlinology is all in tatters, I thought State had a better institutional memory than that.
 
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While not making light of the turmoil, deaths and terrible tragedy that is taking place in Crimea- Not all is bad that came out of the invasion.

For the longest, many of us were wondering how aggresive would China get in the SCS. Would they muscle themselves into annexing islands and taking up more waters as a part of their ecosystem. Even those of us who have spent decades within various foreign policy agencies, were scouring for any hints of what next. We were having a difficult time predicting the extent China would go to, and frankly how soon.

What was worse was that we had disjointed answers or solutions that we would recommend. From the extremes of suggesting we deploy our ships in the areas we felt would be of the greatest risk- after all we had the countries that were threatened, privately almost begging us to come to their aid . To simply building up the military capabilities of those nations most affected to 'sanctions'.

Never in our dreams would we have imaged Crimea taking place, and although “sanctions” were a tool we had at the back of our minds.. We were not sure of Europe and NATO going along with us is making any such sanctions, as being effective.

Simply put the world is intertwined and dependent on each other for its economies and China plays a vital role in those dependencies.

China beware:
Then Crimea happened, and although excruciating slow at the beginning, Europe and US came together much stronger, with a great deal of help from our allies in the middle east, to prove that we would not allow Russia to simply annex parts of another country.

Europe showed a lot of fortitude in taking the brunt of risks. Unlike the U.S., it was Europe that had a lot to lose from a Russian blowback with it being more dependent on Russia's oil and gas resources.

The subsequent fortitude showed has got the Chinese diplomats and regime thinking twice. Should they imagine a muscle into the South China Sea, oddly based on the notion of some homemade maps and a 9 dashed line theory- it will then have to contend with going up against a strong response from U.S and its allies.

Daniel Russel, US point man for East Asia said “"The net effect is to put more pressure on China to demonstrate that it remains committed to the peaceful resolution of the problems," Russel, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Russel said the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and others should have a "chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model."


We got your debt in our palms
The threat of it holding U.S debt, while not insignificant or really that large- would not much matter. You see the Chinese would be cutting their own foot if they risked any such economic calamity as it needs these markets to do well, to keep its economic engines going. Messing with Uncle Sam is not just easy and he comes with a lot of friends. This why you don't see the Russians selling off its assets and bonds in the U.S.

Added to this the world is watching the outcome of the case that was filed against China by the Philippines at The Hague. Although China at the offset, like a petulant child, declared it would not adhere to the rulings. A favorable ruling would give Philippines the PR victory in its legitimacy over China’s claims. And it would add more legitimacy to the rest of us, on the sidelines.


China is not stupid to try anything now,,,wait for 15-20 years when it gains more financial muscle and u will see it trying to emulate the USA model of global policeman,,,no one can do anything about that.

Thats how superpowers work and china will be the one in 15-20 years if its not already.
 
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China is not stupid to try anything now,,,wait for 15-20 years when it gains more financial muscle and u will see it trying to emulate the USA model of global policeman,,,no one can do anything about that.

Thats how superpowers work and china will be the one in 15-20 years if its not already.

Did you predict China to be a Superpower in 15-20 years? Can I ask you what do you think constitutes as being considered a " Superpower" ?
 
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Did you predict China to be a Superpower in 15-20 years? Can I ask you what do you think constitutes as being considered a " Superpower" ?
There is nothing to predict,,its a fact.

Superpower should have both a strong military and financial muscle with global reach.

China at 9 trillion gdp and growing at 6-7%+ is already a great power poised to overtake usa in absolute gdp terms in the said 15-20 years by conservative estimate and before that by a more positive estimate.

Militarily they are a lot behind and may never match usa but will be the no 2 by a huge margin from the number 3 player.

Still NATO as a whole will be the dominating force untill and unless BRICS emerges in next 20 years or so but possibility seems less
 
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There is nothing to predict,,its a fact.

Superpower should have both a strong military and financial muscle with global reach.

China at 9 trillion gdp and growing at 6-7%+ is already a great power poised to overtake usa in absolute gdp terms in the said 15-20 years by conservative estimate and before that by a more positive estimate.

Militarily they are a lot behind and may never match usa but will be the no 2 by a huge margin from the number 3 player.

Still NATO as a whole will be the dominating force untill and unless BRICS emerges in next 20 years or so but possibility seems less

Let me put this way. The next superpower would need its economical might big enough where its population numbers won't be a burden, and a resource hog. Along with an alliance similar to NATO, with not just global reach but global bases in place. They will also pretty much signal that they are going to take on NATO, which would make their economies unwelcome to a large extent.

BRICS will never be that. They will never have any such mutual military agreements. Brazil won't agree to it, Russia won't agree to it, India, S Africa won't..... and you get the picture.
 
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Let me put this way. The next superpower would need its economical might big enough where its population numbers won't be a burden, and a resource hog. Along with an alliance similar to NATO, with not just global reach but global bases in place. They will also pretty much signal that they are going to take on NATO, which would make their economies unwelcome to a large extent.

BRICS will never be that. They will never have any such mutual military agreements. Brazil won't agree to it, Russia won't agree to it, India, S Africa won't..... and you get the picture.

Please read my last line again.
Either way only an alliance of china ,india and russia is big enough in 20 years from now to challenge NATO,,but as stated earlier its highly unlikely.Mainly because india dosen't seem interested in this thing,our main priority is better life to the population and have no enmity with west or east except pakistan.Chinese are a worry but we hope a settlement will be reached in this decade.

But BRICS will serve as a pure economic block in furure,,thats a good possibility.

But who knows.

Regarding resources u might wanna take a look at chinese inroads in africa and southamerica.
 
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