Actually I don't see how Russia and China are with you when they're neutral as you just stated. If Russia is really determined to face the USA, then why don't they help their buddy Iran? Why don't they veto the sanctions, and give you guys advanced weaponry?
Well, first let's assume they're neutral. Isn't it better than being fully against us like in 1980's? That's one point, which is still valid.
I guess you didn't read my previous post attentively. The Chinese are helping Iran right now. They are helping Iran to evade sanctions and are probably active in space technology proliferation as well.
I hate to repeat myself, but things have changed very quickly since last year. First of all, Medmedev in the Kremlin had a different idea than Putin about cooperation with west. Medmedev believed that cooperation with west would solve the expansion of NATO which is engulfing Russia and would also help Russia to boos her economy. Putin, on the other hand, had a different mind-set in his previous term. So that's the first change made in the Kremlin.
But as I told you, it's not only about supporting Iran. It's about a much wider game and geopolitics. You could clearly see that Russia and China have stood firm against military intervention in Syria so far. That's probably not going to change as Syria is the only Russian military base in the Mediterranean. As long as Russia wants Syria, it must want Iran as well, because without Iran's support the regime of Syria would be a lot weaker. That's one way of seeing it.
The other way of seeing it is very easy once you know the Middle East well. Iran, without doubt, is one of the most important countries of the Middle East and the world when it comes to geopolitics. It's a country with close to 80 million people, with one of the world's largest university population and one of the world's largest scientific output that has thousands of kilometers of direct and coastal borders with more than 10 states that all of them are of strategic importance for Russia, China and world economy. That means if you maintain good ties with Iran, you could access more than 10 important countries. Some of these countries like Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, are land-locked countries and that even strengthens Iran's geographic location significance. I wouldn't even go to details that how much the Caucasus and Central Asia is important for Russia and how much Iran's role is important to help Russia have influence over there.
Regarding energy sources, Iran could significantly change energy equations against the Russian federation if it becomes allied with the west. Iran has the world's 3rd largest oil reserves, the world's 2 largest natural gas reserves after Russia (Russia and Iran together hold almost one-half of the world's natural gas reserves) and Iran is also one of the richest countries in minerals and ores. To be more precise, Iran has vast amounts of copper, iron, zirconium, zinc(the world's largest), helium gas (the world's largest), lead, uranium(the world's 10th largest), etc...
The fact that today's Iran has been isolated by the world is to the benefit of Russia. Because for that reason, Russia has succeeded to impose her interests on the European countries who desperately need Russia's gas for cold winters in North Europe. If Iran comes out of this situation, and it will come out of this situation if the USA changes the regime of Iran with military force, Russia will lose a big market in North and Central Europe to Iran and there's no doubt about it. On the other hand, a post-war Iran, allied with the west, could totally change the equations in the Caucasus which could be a big blow to the Russians in there. And we're not even talking about how neighboring a US-allied country like Iran through the Caspian sea, which would enjoy the NATO very soon if it becomes a US ally, would directly threaten Russia's national security and interests.
Russia has to stick to Iran, not because she loves Iran, but because it has to. Iran allied with the USA/NATO would be a nightmare for the Kremlin for sure.
About China, you should see what China lacks! China lacks oil and energy sources. It lacks almost nothing else. And for that purpose, China will always eye Iran's energy sources. Today the USA is present in Afghanistan, but do you think it's always going to be that way? The USA, sooner or later, will have to reduce its military presence in Afghanistan, and once that is done, Afghanistan will be a corridor between Iran and China. We'll build huge pipelines to send our oil and gas to China through the little border it shares with Afghanistan. You should also know that Iran's position is important for China because if Iran falls to the hands of the USA, then Pakistan will be engulfed by pro-USA states and then either Pakistan will change her mind and turns to the west which means China will lose an ally or India will gain more power and will exert tremendous pressure on Pakistan.
I could write a full several page article about how a regime change Iran could piss on all Russian and Chinese dreams. There's no doubt that Russia and China will support Iran in case of a direct military conflict with the USA because if they don't do so they'll lose much.
About nukes option, how isn't really an option any longer? It isn't an option when you have ICBM's with nuclear warheads capable of targeting the US. And you have no nukes, neither short nor long ranges.
You're not better than the Japanese, a couple of atomic bombs aren't out of the option. And more can follow.
OK. So let me explain to you what the difference is.
First of all, when the USA dropped little boy and fat man on Hiroshima and Nagasaki respectively, the Nazi Germany had already collapsed. The USA had very good information that the Nazi Germany was close to the Atomic bomb and actually the Nazis had a better understanding of nuclear physics at that time. The USA knew that the Japanese (or the Japs as they called them) couldn't do a jack at that time and the risk of retaliation of the kind was zero. Moreover, the Americans probably had done calculations and thought that no other country would obtain nuclear weapons in at least a decade or so and that's why they refused to share their secrets even with the ally Britain.
The situation of that time was really different. The Nazi Germany, as one of the most formidable and hated war machines of the world, had been stopped by the Japanese were insisting on the war. Many people around the globe were tired of killings, losing family members and their houses in war, etc... Everyone, in any corner of the world, wanted the war done and with the fall of Germany the supporters of the Nazi Germany had no hope to win the war any longer. In such a situation, ending the war at such a heavy price wouldn't instigate world emotions against the USA and could be simply justified. Just like how the USA has been telling for decades that the bombings were necessary to end the war especially after the Japanese refused Potsdam ultimatum.
Now, how the situation is different now? Well, first of all, there isn't any world war going now. If the USA starts a war, she has started it and after two invasions, that are widely viewed globally as an act of US unilateralism and greediness, the world opinion is very much the opposite way of what it was backing in 1945. Second of all, There are 8 nuclear states as far as I could remember now except the USA. 4 of them could be willing to proliferate nuclear weapons to finish off the USA (only one nuclear bomb dropped on New York could set the Americans back to 100 years ago economically), so there's a high risk of proliferation. Iran already has done experiments on plutonium reprocessing in laboratory size in 2003 during the Khatami era which caused the USA and the world to focus on Iran's nuclear program and finally the then-Iranian government decided to stop uranium enrichment and seal all Iranian nuclear related material under supervision of the IAEA. Iran has access to nuclear warhead carrying missiles that it has obtained from Russia and North Korea. The Russian Kh-55 missile is a cruise missile with a range of 3,000 kms capable of carrying a 200kT nuclear warhead and Iran is in possession of at least 12 of them. The Shahab-3 is speculated to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads and the IAEA in his last year's report expressed his concern regarding Iran's missile activities (which is none of their business and out of its framework though).
These are all possibilities of proliferation, but what is very likely, is that Iran would resort to dirty bombs, biological and chemical warfare if it's attacked with nukes which Iran is certainly capable of. Iran has an advanced pharmaceutical industry that produces world class vaccines and radio-pharmaceuticals. And also Iran has already mastered solid-fueled technology and multi-stage technology and has produced her own SLVs that has successfully put 3 satellites into orbit in the last 2 years. That means, to reach the US coast, Iran has the technology and it only needs to turn this technological potential into practice which is not very hard. You don't need to fully destroy the USA. Just hitting New York City would be a major blow for the USA. Even a EMP bomb detonated in GEO could cripple the US satellites and be a real pain in the a$$ for the USA. And don't forget that Israel is only 1,300 kms away from us and our medium-range missiles are capable of hitting close to 2,000 kms (Sajjil-2, Shahab-3, Sajjil-1, all have Israel under their range).
** Sorry for the long post, I'm sure you aren't going to read all of it LOL, but just for the record **
... Russian weapons arriving in Damascus , Ships docking at Tartus , The rigid stance by the Kremlin ... When are you planning an invasion by the way ?
, but truth is as I mentioned in analysis - US will bankrupt faster than win over Iran. And by winning I mean complete occupation and permanent puppet regime. Some are under illusion if US breaks through defenses they won, while not understanding it would just activate Phase2 for Iran.
