Coming into light USAs strike against Pakistan?

[Majnun]

USA has been trying for years to somehow drastically weaken Pakistan at the least. But thanks to Musharraf, this has not been possible. And his latest refusals to certain very important requests by the US-namely Negroponte- has America after Musharraf's blood now. He is the only barrier between Pakistan and any US invasion. If he leaves either a completely corrupt US puppet like Bhutto comes or an equally corrupt blundering and inept persona like Nawaz Sharif or a party like Jamaat Ulema Islami comes and that leaves their way open. Now they want Musharraf removed.

 

[Majnun]

mr, t-bird , there is a theory in which a enemy of the enemy can become best friend.


comming to ur points, as u mentioned, my dear,

1. frist of all , joining IRAN strategicaly will issolate usa not pakistan because, of the war front,
because by making war front expanding from IRAN TO PAKISTAN will be imposible to attack for USA, BECAUSE of its expenses , its huge battle field and the number of troops to make that actuly happen?



it will boost both pakistan and iran politicly , socialy , defensivly and it will bring stop to USAs invasion to every muslim state on this EARTH.


i dont think that USA can make it a reason to attack us , if pakistan make IRAN A PARTENER for peace , a partener in , war on terror and in ecnomics and in trade.


if , pakistan can do that, u look how fast this alliance can grow, one thing is sure there are countries, and nations which actully doesnt like this single SUPER POWER dominated WORLD.

I think if, pakistan can try! the alliance what USA is trying to kill ? it would be a fatal blow to USA. and also it will certnly bring some order to world.


this will surely can, be a source of atraction for CHINA + RUSSIA ???

SURLY, usa doesnt have might to attack pakistan and iran same, time and about pakistani nuek assistance the story already ended today, US inttelignce report says that iran already stop its nuek activity?


if, pakistan is a target it, will be going to attack, any reason can be put and same to iran also so, if we and iranians both have same enemy, and if both were the target s, why should not face enemy togather???


about J-10s my friend, in war u need weapons with skills, so if we can use our skills with most getable advnce weapon i think we can defend our selves at least.


and about, AMERICAN FORCES comming from all sides, certnly our borders with CHINA AND IRAN , i think impossible to access for usa?


plz, dont loss hopes, or dont be affraid by USAs miltry might have fun.


because, we r muslims , and we were taught there will be victory if do our best:cheers: ......

Most of your points are correct but you have said that with borders of China and Iran access is impossible for USA. India shares our longest border.

 

[t-birds]

Mr Jantobanto, What i meant to say was that Iran is already isolated and has sanctions placed on them by not the US, but the World Community and has been accused by the West as being "Determined to gain Nuclear weapons" as stated by the US president after the US inteligence report was released. And anyway when has this ever stopped America from carrying out its ambitions. The war in Iraq where UN Nuclear watchdogs wrote a report on Iraqi weapons was cast aside and rest im sure you know.

The US inteligence report was written by the US's secret service and i'm sure that it would not have been publised without the white house approval, thus a Change in the US stance on Iran is probably the case.

And also i dont believe the sanctions on Iran would be lifted because of this.....

Pakistan has in the past been accused of selling Nuclear Technology to Iran in the past through Abdul Qadeers networks and that could justify an invasion not just by the US but the whole of Europe as well....!!!

Also please note that Iran is a shiite country who stands by India's accession over Kashmir...!!! so why would the Iranians back the pakistanis against the US...??? There are also US airbases in pakistan which threaten the Iranians with thus i dont think they would be seemingly willingly to help...

Also please note that i never said that the US would invade pakistan...!!! that would not be possible with there men so thinly stretched. I said that the US could get our arch rival India to invade who have the means and the army to occupy pakistan. The US would only send in Special forces from Afghanstan, (i.e. the other side of the border) to attack our Nuclear installions and missile sites using advance technology and blame it was the Indian army.

And also i do not think that Iran would help Pakistan against a war with India (indirect US).

And with regards to J10s.... how many J10s would China be able to provide.... especially at short notice. And how would they be able to provide them if the Docks are block aided by US / Indian Navy. The karakoram highway which india can easily monitor with there positions in Siachen glaciers would be easy targets.

"Have Fun"....!!!! i'm sure the people in countries such as Iraq and afghanstan are having a party...!!!

And where "best" is concerned i do not believe we are even half that...

 

[Bushroda]

Points 3 I am not familiar with, could you provide links to validate those?

Here are couple of links that speak the same
Economic Threat May Push Pakistan to Nukes - Report
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

With respect to point 2, and perhaps tiying in 3 indirectly - while any conflict over the "cutoff" of waters could be potentially resolved utilizing the mechanism provided for in the IWT, the threat would arise from the amount of time it would take to resolve the issue, and If India were to cutoff the water, before any arbitration was complete. That would be a situation that would devastate Pakistan economically and socially - it would have catastrophic effects on sixty percent of the population that lives in the rural areas and depends upon that water for their existence.

Even if the gravity of the point 2 is as serious as you say it still doesn't hide the fact that Pak has a very shallow threshold for nuclear exchange. Let's say if India decides to cut off water supply during a severe draught Pak can still just bomb the dam that holds the water. Afterall I believe that Babur can be laden with enough explosives to bring down a dam.

Perhaps I should clarify what I meant earlier.

The US is bothered about Pakistan's doctrine - in fact that would be one of the reasons I believe the US will not take the gamble to invade or bomb Pakistan.

At the moment with all the news coming from US press on confiscating Pak's nuclear arsenal it doesn't seem that US has even heard about the doctrine anywhere. Or maybe they are calling the bluff? The biggest concern for US would be a rogue nuke going off anywhere on US soil or in its controlled territory and to avoid it, they wouldn't flinch an eye to abondon India's interest. Afterall, no matter how good an ally one is.. In the end, everyone is on his own.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Janto,

Fine. I now understand the rationale of your post.

T Bird raises an interesting issue (if I have understood him/ her right) - the decimation of Pakistan into smaller in dependent entities. It is idealistic for the Imperial times, but one wonders if it is relevant in modern turbulent times.


T Bird,

By decimating Pakistan and having a whole lot of landlocked 'Nations'. it will only increase the headaches of those who 'organise' such unfortunate situations!

It may appeal to the self pity syndrome of those who feel that the world is conspiring to decimate Pakistan but personally I am of the belief that it is better to have a stabilised and vibrant Pakistan, than a moth eaten conglomerate of bread basket cases in the neighbourhood.

It pains me to see the chicanery and conspiracy that is afoot to defame the good that Musharraf has done for Pakistan!

He maybe a dictator, if some of you all want to label him so, but he was and is a benevolent dictator like Fredrick the Great of Germany.

Elect your favourite 'democratic' political leader as your PM and let the fun begin!

I assure you India or Russia or the US will require to lift a finger!

You will!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Here are couple of links that speak the same
Economic Threat May Push Pakistan to Nukes - Report
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

Even if the gravity of the point 2 is as serious as you say it still doesn't hide the fact that Pak has a very shallow threshold for nuclear exchange. Let's say if India decides to cut off water supply during a severe draught Pak can still just bomb the dam that holds the water. Afterall I believe that Babur can be laden with enough explosives to bring down a dam.

At the moment with all the news coming from US press on confiscating Pak's nuclear arsenal it doesn't seem that US has even heard about the doctrine anywhere. Or maybe they are calling the bluff? The biggest concern for US would be a rogue nuke going off anywhere on US soil or in its controlled territory and to avoid it, they wouldn't flinch an eye to abondon India's interest. Afterall, no matter how good an ally one is.. In the end, everyone is on his own.

Thanks for the links.

A quote from the paper on the NPEC site:

In fact, Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai, director of Pakistan’s Strategic
Plans Division (SPD)—the military organization created in 1999 to oversee the development,
custody, and employment of nuclear weapons—affirmed to a pair of Italian physicists in 2002
that Pakistan would not make its nuclear doctrine public, as India did in August 1999.7

That would indicate that our understanding of Pakistan's doctrine is primarily speculative, and that the thresholds mentioned are "educated guesswork". The first part of the paper also discusses how Pakistan does believe that it can use its conventional forces effectively, which would imply that conventional forces will be used and exhausted before the doctrine comes into play. But to continue with the discussion on the thresholds mentioned -

It may be a matter of perspective, but I do not think that the use of nukes in situation 2 implies a narrow threshold. As far as using missiles, bombs or what have you - I imagine those options will all be considered and utilized before the "threshold" is crossed. You seem to be taking the doctrine a little too literally - "India announces plans to abrogate IWT - and Pakistan launches nukes"! Thats just silly and a gross misrepresentation and exaggeration of what the doctrine allegedly calls for.

With respect to "strangulation of the economy" - that needs further clarification as to what it means before simply assuming that it might refer to "trade embargoes" or such. My guess is that "economic strangulation" would refer to a naval blockade of Pakistan, which would seem to only come about as a result of a military conflict - and again, it would be silly to assume that Pakistan would not utilize all conventional means at its disposal before it considers the "threshold" to be crossed.

The news coming out of the US can continue to scream the arrival of the Armageddon from Pakistan - and it is also admitting that there really are no good options, which to me indicates that they are well aware that it would be nigh impossible to get every section of the PA on board and every nuke accounted for in case they had to intervene (we are looking at probably over a hundred to 2 hundred nukes according to recent estimates).

Most of this irresponsible nonsense from the US, like I said before, is most probably an attempt to keep Pakistan on its toes wrt to its nuclear controls, which are already quite comprehensive. I don't really see any chance of the doomsday scenario in Pakistan coming true, and therefore nor do I see any attempt by the US to secure anything.

The Western media nowadays can never turn down an invitation for good old "Muslim Bomb Doomsday scenarios". It sells!

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The Western media nowadays can never turn down an invite for good old "Muslim Bomb Doomsday scenarios". It sells!

The source and invitation (dislike the American 'invite') to most of the posts here and the people getting hyper without calm analysis!

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

[IceCold]

but one thing is sure that CHINA will be with us, and we can count on CHINA.

Get one thing straight in your head, china will not intervene in a direct confrontation with the US for pakistan. Remember there is no permanent friendship and no permanent enemity as the situation changes so does the interests and hence the friendship. Besides this will not be a full scale invasion, all that US will do if it tries to carry on with this kind of misadventure will be an airstrike, to counter that we need to prepare ourselves and that does not include relying on a third nation no matter how close the relationship are. We have already seen that once in 71 and most recently in kargil.

also we need to include INDIA as our newly found freind?

Dude are you serious about it. You are talking about a country that doesnt let go a single chance of hurting pakistan and her interests in the region. You seriously believe that in case of such an attack, india actually will discourage it and instead favour pakistan. India more then even the US itself is looking for a chance to destroy pakistan's nuclear weapons, having US do it for her will be like a dream come true, all india needs is to give US a little assist and trust me they will do it to the best of their capabilities if ever a situation arrises. God bless Pakistan

 

[jantobanto]

my, dear ICE COLD , let me assure u that after geting threatend by USA 2 times in one month.

many options in line , but a lot of activity is going on behind the curtains. and let me enlight u that already PAKARMY is in consultations with CHINESE ARAMD FORCES. with the passge of time u will know by urself.


i , cant give u more than that, even wana tell a lot , all i can say is that there are reports that, pakistan and china planing some IMPORTANT MILLITRY EXERSICES including AIRFORCES.

DUDE , wht kind of languge u r using, is that ENGLISH?
OR is USAs SLANG?

DUDE DD WHT IS THIS?
i think u r imperssd by newyork yankes, kind of staff


let me tell u, CHINA IS most trusted , most tryied , friend PAKISTAN ever had.

in case of US STIKE ON PAKISTAN, CHINA will be standing shoulder to shoulder.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Janto,

Interesting post, but I am sure Officer of Engineers would give you the efficacy of the Chinese interaction better than most.

 

[IceCold]

my,dear ICE COLD ,let me assure u that after geting threatend by USA 2 times in one month.

many options in line,but a lot of activity is going on behind the curtains. and let me enlight u that already PAKARMY is in consultations with CHINESE ARAMD FORCES. with the passge of time u will know by urself.


i,cant give u more than that, even wana tell a lot,all i can say is that there are reports that,pakistan and china planing some IMPORTANT MILLITRY EXERSICES including AIRFORCES.

There is no need for an assurance why because it is an obivious thing that after getting threats, armed forces get a highalert. But two things come in mind here 1) How seriously is this threat? Because there isnt any official war sounding to me, i dont know where are you getting your resources from but this is not the first time propaganda about pakistan nuclear weapons is being launched within western media and a few senators just stand up in the congress to shout about it. Nothing more. Before that obama was doing it, but does that make a threat real and 2) even if it do the only way to deter this threat is the same way pakistan deter from india. we have actually something that could hit back to the main land i.e USA. Since we dont have something, its actually useless to think we can deter against such an act.
As for military planning with china, this is not something new, in 65 war a delagation went to china to ask for assistance, same in every war, but i gave you the example of 71, kargil then again in 2002 when we were actually on the brink of a war with india, china actually refrained from a direct statement in favour of pakistan which would criticize india.
As for the military exercises, again this is not the first time we are doing so and i highly doubt that we are actually doing it by keeping US in mind. I know exercises are planned with china but i am not sure how are you actually relating it in this context.

DUDE, wht kind of languge u r using, is that ENGLISH?
OR is USAs SLANG?

DUDE DD WHT IS THIS?
i think u r imperssd by newyork yankes,kind of staff

I dont know what are you trying to refer here, but i'm not impressed by anything and specially newyork yankes or whoever they are. I called you dude, i didnt actually found a better name then this for what you wrote earlier about a newly found friend in the name of india.

let me tell u, CHINA IS most trusted, most tryied, friend PAKISTAN ever had.

in case of US STIKE ON PAKISTAN, CHINA will be standing shoulder to shoulder.

No one is doubting about the relationship between china and pakistan but to think that china actually will stand shoulder to shoulder with pakistan, diplomatically yes but other wise, its an utter stupidity to even think like this. Self interest always come in first and right now china is in not position to challange USA and that too for pakistan, and one more thing we should also not expect china to fight for us, in case of US airstrike, we'll have very limited options like i mentioned above and we surely should not expect that actually china will fire an intercontential missle to strike US for pakistan, china except from condeming this act will not do anything more and so do we.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

There is no need for an assurance why because it is an obivious thing that after getting threats, armed forces get a highalert. But two things come in mind here 1) How seriously is this threat? Because there isnt any official war sounding to me, i dont know where are you getting your resources from but this is not the first time propaganda about pakistan nuclear weapons is being launched within western media and a few senators just stand up in the congress to shout about it. Nothing more. Before that obama was doing it, but does that make a threat real and 2) even if it do the only way to deter this threat is the same way pakistan deter from india. we have actually something that could hit back to the main land i.e USA. Since we dont have something, its actually useless to think we can deter against such an act.
As for military planning with china, this is not something new, in 65 war a delagation went to china to ask for assistance, same in every war, but i gave you the example of 71, kargil then again in 2002 when we were actually on the brink of a war with india, china actually refrained from a direct statement in favour of pakistan which would criticize india.
As for the military exercises, again this is not the first time we are doing so and i highly doubt that we are actually doing it by keeping US in mind. I know exercises are planned with china but i am not sure how are you actually relating it in this context.



I dont know what are you trying to refer here, but i'm not impressed by anything and specially newyork yankes or whoever they are. I called you dude, i didnt actually found a better name then this for what you wrote earlier about a newly found friend in the name of india.




No one is doubting about the relationship between china and pakistan but to think that china actually will stand shoulder to shoulder with pakistan, diplomatically yes but other wise, its an utter stupidity to even think like this. Self interest always come in first and right now china is in not position to challange USA and that too for pakistan, and one more thing we should also not expect china to fight for us, in case of US airstrike, we'll have very limited options like i mentioned above and we surely should not expect that actually china will fire an intercontential missle to strike US for pakistan, china except from condeming this act will not do anything more and so do we.

All these American statements are only political BS and since Pakistan FO response is calm in this case, suggests that there is no such real threat.. But if it is there then We would see that Pakistan is not any country US attacked before..... Pakistan is not so weak as few of our friends presume, Pakistani Army can defend Pakistan from US aggresion, Success is not an issue but rest assured that if America Loses one battle group in this induced War for nothing, then we will be heading for WWIII and there is no question about that.

 

[jantobanto]

about 71 war , and about KARGIL adventure, the point should be noted that in both cases that at both times PAKISTAN was in WAR with INDIA, not USA?


both times we were facing , our netural enemy and CHINA was backing us both times! but both times CHINA dosent have any real reason to send its troops to help PAK ARMY.


both times it was a regional confilict, and there wasnt any space or any role for CHINA, as a superpower to meesng

 

[Energon]

It is highly unlikely that China will directly intervene in an Indo-Pakistan conflict.

Up until 1989, it was India's pact with Russia that kept China at bay. In 1999 the world opinion was against Pakistan, and China had to follow suit by staying neutral and advising Pakistan to withdraw to the LoC.

China may however support Pakistan's low grade hostility in Kashmir since it keeps their current adversary at bay. However, if the Indo-China bilateral trade surges and all barriers are taken down then it is unlikely China will be able to support any of Pakistan's overt or covert military operations against India since the economic well being of the latter will become far more crucial.

 

[Energon]

both times we were facing , our netural enemy and CHINA was backing us both times!

China didn't give Pakistan backing of any sort during the Kargil war. They suggested Pakistan's immediate withdrawal to the LoC. If there is evidence suggesting to the contrary, please post it.