How Pakistan is coming to terms with global realities

[AA_]

Egypt not so much. It’s the Pakistan of the Middle East. Run by folks who will gladly kill their own to line their pockets. I dreaded comparing the two but it’s obvious that Egypt and Pakistan are identical nations corrupt setup. Anyone who’s been to Egypt and Pakistan can attest to this.

 

[LeGenD]

Caught off-guard when under Chinese patronage, the two Middle Eastern giants Saudi Arabia and Iran buried their mutual hatchet for good; for the client states like Pakistan it was a new reality; that too a shocking one. The recent flurry of activity, coupled with a ‘painful courtship’ with the western financial system, meaning the IMF, Pakistan is opening up to the previously prohibited domains in foreign policy; all suggest that the country establishment seems to be coming to terms with ground, rather global, realities.

The gradual delinking of the Saudi defence establishment from the American axis; talks of joint Iranian-Saudi patrolling of the Persian Gulf, was the first takeaway from the change. Coupled with that, a more than warm reception meted out to the Iranian Hajj pilgrims in the Holy Cities, coupled with a breathing space for traditional Iranian allies the Shi’a Muslims in visiting the famous Medina cemetery all point out to changing patterns in the domain of foreign policy.

In that environment, the Pakistani establishment, which has been extra careful, as regards warmth with the anti-USA in the Middle East, has been caught by surprise. Pakistan like Turkey and Iraq has been an energy-deficient economy. While the latter two states have been straightforward in their dealing with the Americans, regarding the imperative of dependence on Iranian natural gas reserves, Pakistan has been more than faithful towards seeking Saudi or US approval for the same.


That refusal to avail the Iranian offer has its consequences for the Pakistani economy; whose POL bill inflated naturally, when the so-called CNG-fitted vehicles have no other option but to run the engines on petrol. Learning a bit from that blunder, there have been efforts to buy relatively cheap Iranian electricity for border areas of Balochistan.

Here it is ironic to observe that while the ‘compromised’ journalists following the establishment line have been trying to pit the Shaheed Beheshti port in Chahbahar against the Gwadar port in Pakistani Balochistan, the Pakistani port city is dependent upon that same Iranian electricity to get the show running.

The winds of change can be felt the way the military contacts with the Iranian defence establishment spearheaded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) seem to be the preferred line of action for the dominant decision makers in Pakistan.

A month ago, the establishment of joint markets in the border areas close to the border between the Pakistani and Iranian Balochistan had been indicative of that change of heart. Likewise, the visit of the top man in the army; as well as contacts between the respective Navies and Air Force as well as diplomats, all indicate a new defence paradigm. The reasons for that change of heart rest in the fact that the other option available for Pakistan can be the prohibited path; tying up with Israel.

Ever since the Trump years’ build-up against Iran for a possible military strike with the connivance of Saudi Arabia has been on the table. However, the Biden years since 2021 have taken the steam out of that option gradually. The recent emergence of Chinese diplomatic initiatives have indirectly frustrated for the time being the American and Israeli calculations. In that scenario, a hypothetical view of the situation; gives Pakistan two options: one of tying up with the Chinese ascendency or drifting towards the USA.

The on-ground situation suggests that Pakistan is apparently testing waters on both the fronts; yet its tilt seems to be towards the Chinese option. The recent flurry of visits between the Iranian and Pakistani military officials and the inroads the PAF has been able to make with the Iraqi counterpart strongly suggest Chinese encouragement.

It may be recalled that the generally pro-American Baghdad was the recipient of 36 F16s during the high time of campaigns against ISIS/Daesh. The intent has been to belittle the ground offensives against Daesh by Iranian aligned groups and give more weightage to the Iraqi efforts; and consequently cultivate the political package accrued out of it. Recently, there has been talk in the media about what can be called American disinterest in providing the Iraqis the required technical assistance. The Iraqi air force is practically experiencing the same sort of American behaviour, which the PAF faced after the 1965 War, forcing Pakistanis to look towards French and Chinese sources of weapon systems.

The recent news in the media about Iraqi Air Force readiness to buy Pakistani-Chinese joint production JF-17 Thunders strongly points towards the fact that Chinese have patted Pakistan on the back for that. Given the fact that Pakistan is able to overcome its foreign exchange issues with the help of massive defence exports, means that the IMF/USA/Abraham Accord options might get weaker with the passage of time. Of late Pakistan has already sold the propelled trainer aircraft to the Iraqi Air Force as part of the ongoing initiative.

Here it might be too early to jump to conclusions with regard to the foreign policy options at hand for Pakistan. For a country like Pakistan, deeply embedded in the Western financial system, trained in the Western protocols for defence as well as financial system linkages, it can be a big step if the country decides for a big disengagement. The IMF recent report does not traditionally touch on Pakistan tax collection capabilities; it has its reservations on export refinance facilities’ espoused by the central bank.

Pakistan’s current weak economic profile has the advantages and vice versa for rolling into any of the two camps. The USA having invested in Pakistan as it did with many states like Venezuela, will certainly prompt the USA not to let Pakistan slip out of its orbit. In other words, it means the USA has no presence in the region against what it can call growing Chinese and Russian influence in it.

Given the black and white drawing of the battle lines between the waning dollar regime led by the US-based capitalist regime capital and the alternate narrative led by the Chinese, Russians and Iranians are already drawn, the lineup prophetically illustrated two months back in the Wall Street Journal cover; showing Russian and Chinese leaders helping Iran’s Khamenei to scale down the proverbial staircase. The options for non-committal fence watchers like Pakistan are going to be to decide where they need to be. The month-old remarks by Hina Rabbani Khar dated June 23, 2023, that Pakistan cannot leave the western sphere for the Chinese one; apparently speaks of Pakistan non-aligned posture, it also indicates the yearning within the ruling elite, inclusive of those currently out of favour, to link up with the USA, as were Ayub, Zia and Musharraf.

Recent year’s political developments within and international developments elsewhere have reinforced the fact that Pakistan might not have the previous position in the eyes of the Chinese establishment as it used to. China’s Middle Eastern and Iran-specific initiatives suggest that Pakistan is one of the connecting states for the Chinese trade initiative, but not the prime one, which was once sought. The hybrid experiment within, when the PAF, USAF and RSAF jointly exercised in central Punjab for imaginary Iranian targets in 2020 through 2021 are a far cry from the Saudi Navy contemplating joint cooperation with Iranian Navy in the aftermath of China led mending of fences in 2023; leaving Pakistan in the literal cold.

Pakistan will really has to catch up with the new global realities, given the fact that it is not proverbially sitting on the wrong lorry, train, flight. Failing which it would only be buying further dire straits and disgrace for itself.

Another either or piece and advocacy for camp politics. These are not helpful.

Here is another reality: Chinese economy is slowing down while US is reviving its manufacturing strength and tapping alternative markets. Make no mistake: US is not going anywhere and will remain strong in the years to come. And a relatively independent US is a dangerous one.

Pakistan does not have to make an either or choice between US and China, and must seek a beneficial economic relationship with the US. In fact, Pakistan must seek a beneficial economic relationship with the entire OECD bloc. I have emphasized this stance for a long time and I hope that decision-makers will pay heed.

Saudi Arabia has to sell its oil and China has become its major buyer, it is understandable that Saudi Arabia will pivot towards the East for growth. But Saudi Arabia is not making an either or choice between US and China, it is exploring new avenues for sustainability.

If Saudi Arabia does make an either or choice then its future is bleak. Destruction of Arabs is foretold in a hadith around the time when Euphrates river will dry up. Muhammad Bin Salman needs to tread carefully.

The US has been very soft on Iraq and Afghanistan, but it might not be this soft in its next move.

Pakistan must not put all of its eggs in one basket and develop relations with as many countries as possible including US. Meaningful information in following post:

GHQ embarrassed by White House - "No indication Afghan refugees in Pakistan have engaged in extremism"

Dobi ka kuta nah gar na ka gat ka No it was not. It was part of the Sikh Empire until the British incorporated it. Sikh empire. How many 100 miles area? Sikh occupied some part of area but not that big if we call it empire..

pdf.defence.pk

WE should drop the obsession with which country is willing to sell its jets to Pakistan. Focus on building beneficial economic relationships with other countries and develop your weapons in-house if you have to.

 

[fatman17]

You missed Egypt. Although they are now what they were, in the 70 they were the leaders of Muslim world. Even today as significant state I would put them above second tier, but below first tier (purely due to lack of natural resource the Iran/SA posses and Technology/Geopolitical position that Turkey have). Pakistan would have been in the same tier as Egypt if it had a decent economy!!

Yes with Egypt s new oil and gas discovery.

 

[nahtanbob]

Another either or piece and advocacy for camp politics. These are not helpful.

Here is another reality: Chinese economy is slowing down while US is reviving its manufacturing strength and tapping alternative markets. Make no mistake: US is not going anywhere and will remain strong in the years to come. And a relatively independent US is a dangerous one.

Pakistan does not have to make an either or choice between US and China, and must seek a beneficial economic relationship with the US. In fact, Pakistan must seek a beneficial economic relationship with the entire OECD bloc. I have emphasized this stance for a long time and I hope that decision-makers will pay heed.

Saudi Arabia has to sell its oil and China has become its major buyer, it is understandable that Saudi Arabia will pivot towards the East for growth. But Saudi Arabia is not making an either or choice between US and China, it is exploring new avenues for sustainability.

If Saudi Arabia does make an either or choice then its future is bleak. Destruction of Arabs is foretold in a hadith around the time when Euphrates river will dry up. Muhammad Bin Salman needs to tread carefully.

The US has been very soft on Iraq and Afghanistan, but it might not be this soft in its next move.

Pakistan must not put all of its eggs in one basket and develop relations with as many countries as possible including US. Meaningful information in following post:

GHQ embarrassed by White House - "No indication Afghan refugees in Pakistan have engaged in extremism"

Dobi ka kuta nah gar na ka gat ka No it was not. It was part of the Sikh Empire until the British incorporated it. Sikh empire. How many 100 miles area? Sikh occupied some part of area but not that big if we call it empire..

pdf.defence.pk

WE should drop the obsession with which country is willing to sell its jets to Pakistan. Focus on building beneficial economic relationships with other countries and develop your weapons in-house if you have to.

That would be a laser like focus on who benefits Pakistan's economy

What do you mean? Why care about any country at all, whether Iran or Turkey, or Vietnam or France? What do you suggest, close all embassies and blow up the airport?

What does Iran or Turkey do out of ordinary for Bangladesh that they have any influence whatsoever ?

France might be a little different in that they influence textile tariffs for Bangladesh and have a UN Security Council veto

Source needed.

will edit the article with the url. Sorry @waz

Why do you use the deceptive term "Pakistan" as if somehow whole of Pakistani people are in this somehow?? The correct term is PAKISTAN ARMY'S PAKISTAN. So the correct title of the thread should be:

How Pakistan Army's Pakistan is coming to terms with global realities​

@waz would it be possible to change the title of this thread please?

It is not my writing. It was an article. apologize for the confusion

 

[Ali_Baba]

WE should drop the obsession with which country is willing to sell its jets to Pakistan. Focus on building beneficial economic relationships with other countries and develop your weapons in-house if you have to.

A bit difficult when the country itself is run by the military itself.

 

[nahtanbob]

India also doesnt have power beyond its border with your logic.

Iran still has ability to influence hydrocarbon prices. It is next to oil producing countries in the Middle East. I never understood the power projection by the Turks. They have known capacity and track record of mischief.

India does not have much hard power beyond South Asia. They are focused on internal economy and on Pakistan/China.

It is world's 5th largest economy in absolute size. It has growing economic clout given the size of its economy

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