China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict

[Baba_Yaga]

You are delusion. Of cos sourgrape will claim it's no necessary. Tell me how do u ship heavy equipment from point to point rapidly over a distance of 1000km? By air freight? Lol..

And for 500-700km travel distance. You think taking a flight will save u much time compare to high speed rail? And don't tell me to drive becos that will take u a whopping 6-7 hrs to accomplish that compare to high speed rail of 2 hrs.

Ok, lets asume i have sour grapes. Now tell me, how often does one need to transport heavy equipment in a few hours? Can you even fit a bulldozer or a crain or even a truck inside a high speed rail compartment,

You also didnt answer if a standard shipping carriage can fit in a high speed train carriage or if any of high speed trains in China are cargo trains.

Your second point is valid, but only a few routes are economically suitable for high speed passenger rail. Your railways are bleeding money and in huge debt because you built them to literally middle of nowhere.

 

[Beast]

Ok, lets asume i have sour grapes. Now tell me, how often does one need to transport heavy equipment in a few hours? Can you even fit a bulldozer or a crain or even a truck inside a high speed rail compartment,

You also didnt answer if a standard shipping carriage can fit in a high speed train carriage or if any of high speed trains in China are cargo trains.

Your second point is valid, but only a few routes are economically suitable for high speed passenger rail. Your railways are bleeding money and in huge debt because you built them to literally middle of nowhere.

If customers need, of cos there is demand. Not every 30 tons equipment is a tractor or large vehicle. How about big engine parts, generator or even grains like rice , beans and food? Don't tell me u use air freight to ship such things. You are not gonna earn any profit from it.

 

[Baba_Yaga]

If customers need, of cos there is demand. Not every 30 tons equipment is a tractor or large vehicle. How about big engine parts, generator or even grains like rice , beans and food? Don't tell me u use air freight to ship such things. You are not gonna earn any profit from it.

You still didnt answer my question, i am only low iq indian and depending on answer from you high iq person. Please tell my low iq brain how this

fits inside

 

[MH.Yang]

As long as China has the capital to invest in robotics to outpace labor costs; I.e. increasing worker productivity AND catches up in terms of key technologies to continue to capture market share it will keep advancing. Without these two fundamentals it will be fall behind due to demographics.

The next 30 years will be crucial, as China will have to return to positive demographics; finding a way to encourage its youth to start to have 2-3 children per couple. For that there is going to have to be a massive wealth transfer, primarily in the form of housing (which will also help deal with the housing crisis).

Finally China will need to really get BRI up an running and help its partner nations get their act together so they can absorb more Chinese exports, offsetting efforts to curtail Chinese industrial development. This will also be a more useful and productive outlet for Chinese investment then continued investment in Chinese real estate. BRI would also help China lower its cost of importing raw materials and exporting finished goods, making it more competitive with Europe and even the US.

The US knows it’s in a marathon and as long as it debt to GDP is lower then that of its competition and is also the reserve currency of the world it will be able to outpace any competition. If China has any hope of competing, it will have to make its currency a world reserve currency as well as lower its Debt to GDP ratio.

But just like any other country, vested interests in China probably will hold back their country from making needed economic reforms before its too late, and we might just be seeing a larger version of what happened to Japan over the last 30 years.

Robots can only replace cheap labor, not engineers, technicians and other occupations.

In fact, China surpassed the USA because Americans abandoned stem and pursued careers such as finance and sports. China's advantage lies in its huge number of STEM talents. The advantage of the USA is that it can absorb stem talents from all over the world.

If China's population continues to shrink, the number of STEM talents will be less and less. This is the most terrible thing.

In 30 years, perhaps China will have only 900 million people. How can the talents provided by our 900 million people defeat the talents provided by their 9 billion people?

So our real enemies are those conservative nationalists. We must move towards a pluralistic society and open our doors to the world. We also need to absorb talents from all over the world.

 

[MultaniGuy]

HONG KONG—The sharp slowdown in China’s growth in the past year is prompting many experts to reconsider when China will surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy—or even if it ever will.

Until recently, many economists assumed China’s gross domestic product measured in U.S. dollars would surpass that of the U.S. by the end of the decade, capping what many consider to be the most extraordinary economic ascent ever.

But...

China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict

Slowing growth has damped expectations that the Chinese economy will become the world’s largest by the end of the decade.

www.wsj.com

It’s an embarrassment everyday that China with 4x the population of the US is still unable to surpass US GDP. The average American is far more productive than the average Chinese.

What nonsense.

Just trying to water down China's economic development.

It is forecasted that China will overtake USA economically by 2030 if not by 2025.

China is growing by each day. Nothing can stop it now.

 

[MH.Yang]

Even if China overtakes America still per capita income of China would be much lower

You can't use per capita income to consider a country with low taxes, high welfare and first-class infrastructure.

 

[FuturePAF]

Robots can only replace cheap labor, not engineers, technicians and other occupations.

In fact, China surpassed the USA because Americans abandoned stem and pursued careers such as finance and sports. China's advantage lies in its huge number of STEM talents. The advantage of the USA is that it can absorb stem talents from all over the world.

If China's population continues to shrink, the number of STEM talents will be less and less. This is the most terrible thing.

In 30 years, perhaps China will have only 900 million people. How can the talents provided by our 900 million people defeat the talents provided by their 9 billion people?

So our real enemies are those conservative nationalists. We must move towards a pluralistic society and open our doors to the world. We also need to absorb talents from all over the world.

You are right that attracting top talent is the key. There are also a lot of talented people around the world that don’t get a chance to emigrate to western countries.

The more China opens to the world, the more it can benefit from the talents of the world population, and be more attract for business in other countries. Currently the US has great people to people connections between immigrants and their home countries. If foreigners see China as a place they can emigrate to, even for a number of years, like Dubai, it will help attract top talent. Guest worker programs have been very useful in bring in top talent. And the children of these immigrants/guest workers can be more creative then other workers, because they have learned to adapt to two different environments.

A great example are the Turkish-Germans couple that founded the company that developed the Biontech COVID Vaccine.

Speaking of the COVID vaccine. Another thing that will help end the lockdowns in China is when there is a new vaccine that is updated to the latest strain of the virus. In the US, we are about to start mass distribution of the new vaccine in a couple months, so hopefully by next year, we will be fully out of the woods. Hopefully China and other countries also have a vaccine/booster ready around the same tile, so that the whole world can put this virus behind us.

 

[Beast]

You still didnt answer my question, i am only low iq indian and depending on answer from you high iq person. Please tell my low iq brain how this

fits inside

HighSpeedRail Freight in China: cargo-partner

www.cargo-partner.com

You want to fit a ship container into a train? Why?

 

[kankan326]

Your metrics are flawed, what about innovation and design? If a country has companies that design and innovate new products, but they chose to produce them in another country, it will only show up in the manufacturing output of the production country.

Can you name some industries that China relies on buying idea or technology from US? Your knowledge is outdated. China is innovation motivated economy now.

 

[aviator_fan]

And living standards. China has higher living standards than the US.



US GDP per capita will reach 1 million USD per person per year shortly driven by money printing.

Please define living standards: Chinese laborers can't send their kids to school in the city unless they have a haiku. They need Govt permission to start working in the city.

Next you are going to say that China has higher living standards than EU: if that is the case why do rich Chinese visit all the over the world and continue to immigrate as well and purchase properties. Why is nobody immigrating to China? Or purchasing properties in China.

Even the Hong Kong Chinese now made a beeline for UK.

I am not saying the West is superior. It has its own issues, and if somebody wrote false statements I will say the same thing. Stop making your country as some super human superpower that has everything perfect and superior

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Please define living standards: Chinese laborers can't send their kids to school in the city unless they have a haiku. They need Govt permission to start working in the city.

Next you are going to say that China has higher living standards than EU: if that is the case why do rich Chinese visit all the over the world and continue to immigrate as well and purchase properties. Why is nobody immigrating to China? Or purchasing properties in China.

Even the Hong Kong Chinese now made a beeline for UK.

I am not saying the West is superior. It has its own issues, and if somebody wrote false statements I will say the same thing. Stop making your country as some super human superpower that has everything perfect and superior

China has better education than the US, lower crime than the US, better public transportation than the US, longer life expectancy than the US, better medical facilities than the US, better consumer electronics than the US.

 

[aviator_fan]

If customers need, of cos there is demand. Not every 30 tons equipment is a tractor or large vehicle. How about big engine parts, generator or even grains like rice , beans and food? Don't tell me u use air freight to ship such things. You are not gonna earn any profit from it.

Where have you been: 16-wheeler trucks. And aircraft engines are transported by air. Its called multi-modal transport. Doesn't mean that if you have seen rail transport work in China, that for other parts of the world no option works. Nobody wakes up in the morning and needs rice and the rice has to be shipped by high speed rail. Thats not how supply chains work.

The world prospered over the last 30 years because it was interconnected. China, the west. Not because China is a set of super humans and did it all on its own

Can you name some industries that China relies on buying idea or technology from US? Your knowledge is outdated. China is innovation motivated economy now.

The obvious one is aviation: for 25 years China has been purchasing Boeing and Airbus airliners. The new C919 airliner has 40% of its major high-value equipment all imported. GE/Safran engines , Honeywell for avionics and so on...

China's industry is advanced and should be admired but its not at the expense of the rest of the world being stupid. Don't ask questions that have obvious answers. If Chinese sensors allow you, read more than what the Govt makes you read.

 

[aviator_fan]

China has better education than the US, lower crime than the US, better public transportation than the US, longer life expectancy than the US, better medical facilities than the US, better consumer electronics than the US.

Also a declining population, 20M less females then men in about a decade, 2 years into the pandemic still not a suitable vaccine and puts its entire population in lockdown in cities with 20m people, and a premier who thinks he is king and should be ruling the sole party till infinity

 

[Beast]

16 wheel transport by air? Which world are u living in for such commercial deal for mass scale? Tell me?

 

[MH.Yang]

Please define living standards: Chinese laborers can't send their kids to school in the city unless they have a haiku. They need Govt permission to start working in the city.

Next you are going to say that China has higher living standards than EU: if that is the case why do rich Chinese visit all the over the world and continue to immigrate as well and purchase properties. Why is nobody immigrating to China? Or purchasing properties in China.

Even the Hong Kong Chinese now made a beeline for UK.

I am not saying the West is superior. It has its own issues, and if somebody wrote false statements I will say the same thing. Stop making your country as some super human superpower that has everything perfect and superior

China's household registration system does restrict the places where children can study (unless you are excellent and can pass the exam to enter a key school whose enrollment is not restricted by the region).

But the Hukou will not limit the area where you work and live. But the Chinese govt is not so stupid. Restricting people's places of work will have a devastating impact on the economy.