China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict

[dbc]

Chinas economy is already bigger when measured by most practical metrics

like? youth unemployment? rotten tail buildings? NPL's held by banks? debt held by state owned enterprise? house hold debt? consumer spending? BNR write offs? exports is the only saving grace and Xi is busy trying to kill it with his zero covid policy. So what 'practical metric' makes China bigger? When the CPC's number 2 li keqiang is asking the Chinese people to prepare for real economic hardship we have you, so what do you know that the li keqiang, the man in charge of the Chinese economy does not know?

 

[beijingwalker]

like? youth unemployment? rotten tail buildings? NPL's held by banks? debt held by state owned enterprise? house hold debt? consumer spending? BNR write offs? exports is the only saving grace and Xi is busy trying to kill it with his zero covid policy. So what 'practical metric' makes China bigger? When the CPC's number 2 li keqiang is asking the Chinese people to prepare for real economic hardship we have you, so what do you know that the li keqiang, the man in charge of the Chinese economy does not know?

A country overall strength should be on total trade, industrial, agricultural and manufacturing output and productivity, of course there are many metrics, but these three decides the fundamentals.

 

[tower9]

like? youth unemployment? rotten tail buildings? NPL's held by banks? debt held by state owned enterprise? house hold debt? consumer spending? BNR write offs? exports is the only saving grace and Xi is busy trying to kill it with his zero covid policy. So what 'practical metric' makes China bigger? When the CPC's number 2 li keqiang is asking the Chinese people to prepare for real economic hardship we have you, so what do you know that the li keqiang, the man in charge of the Chinese economy does not know?

Ok you’re just repeating a bunch of sensationalistic headlines. Reality is that by almost metric of consumption and industrial production, China has not only surpassed the US but actually DWARFS the US economy.

 

[dbc]

Ok you’re just repeating a bunch of sensationalistic headlines. Reality is that by almost metric of consumption and industrial production, China has not only surpassed the US but actually DWARFS the US economy.

so li keqiang is a sensationalist. let's have them dwarfing metrics.

 

[Beast]

like? youth unemployment? rotten tail buildings? NPL's held by banks? debt held by state owned enterprise? house hold debt? consumer spending? BNR write offs? exports is the only saving grace and Xi is busy trying to kill it with his zero covid policy. So what 'practical metric' makes China bigger? When the CPC's number 2 li keqiang is asking the Chinese people to prepare for real economic hardship we have you, so what do you know that the li keqiang, the man in charge of the Chinese economy does not know?

Lol... US has no problem. No american consume drugs. Crime rate at ultra low. Shooting is rare. No unemployment. US economy are growing at 10% and no inflation. All is rosy for USA.

China may not even reed to grow, just wait for USA economy to self destruct. And India economy overtake UK not becos of brilliant of Modi but due to incompetent of B.johnson which causes UK to recess.

 

[Baba_Yaga]

A country overall strength should be on total trade, industrial, agricultural and manufacturing output and productivity, of course there are many metrics, but these three decides the fundamentals.

Your metrics are flawed, what about innovation and design? If a country has companies that design and innovate new products, but they chose to produce them in another country, it will only show up in the manufacturing output of the production country. US and Japan used to produce everything until 1990s until it got too expensive and production moved offshore. Ultimately, production will will leave China also as it gets richer, and you will see decline in manufacturing and industrial output, which will be replaced by financial services, retail, IT and Tech etc etc, that is the natural order of things. However, since China has such a large population, the pace at which companies leave will be slower than seen in US or japan, since being close to such a big market will remain profitable for a longer time.

Also as a country develops, there are lesser things left to build, Right now you are building bridges, highways etc etc, but what happens when you have already built them to every major and medium sized city? Will you build a highway twice to the same place, or build another bridge next to an existing one? So you become more developed, your construction sector will also grow at a smaller and smaller pace, until it gets stagnant, and finally registering negative growth, again impating production of concrete, steel etc etc.

 

[ziaulislam]

HONG KONG—The sharp slowdown in China’s growth in the past year is prompting many experts to reconsider when China will surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy—or even if it ever will.

Until recently, many economists assumed China’s gross domestic product measured in U.S. dollars would surpass that of the U.S. by the end of the decade, capping what many consider to be the most extraordinary economic ascent ever.

But...

China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict

Slowing growth has damped expectations that the Chinese economy will become the world’s largest by the end of the decade.

www.wsj.com

It’s an embarrassment everyday that China with 4x the population of the US is still unable to surpass US GDP. The average American is far more productive than the average Chinese.

??
China economy is already several times bigger then USA

 

[Beast]

Your metrics are flawed, what about innovation and design? If a country has companies that design and innovate new products, but they chose to produce them in another country, it will only show up in the manufacturing output of the production country. US and Japan used to produce everything until 1990s until it got too expensive and production moved offshore. Ultimately, production will will leave China also as it gets richer, and you will see decline in manufacturing and industrial output, which will be replaced by financial services, retail, IT and Tech etc etc, that is the natural order of things. Also as a country develops, there are lesser things left to build, Right now you are building bridges, highways etc etc, but what happens when you have already built them to every major and medium sized city? Will you build a road twice to the same place? As you develop, your construction sector will also grow at a smaller and smaller pace, again impating production of concrete, steel etc etc.

Production will not move out of China anytime. That is why Yuan rise are keep in check to maintain our cost edge. China still has world class infrastructure which ensure goods are ship out at fastest and safest. Low wage countries only has the edge of low wage. They can't compete with efficiency and ease of transport compare to China. Good infrastructure bring down cost of manufacturing products. No only that. High tech and efficient production ensure low cost produced. Compare to highly ill efficient labour intensive production.

 

[Baba_Yaga]

Production will not move out of China anytime. That is why Yuan rise are keep in check to maintain our cost edge. China still has world class infrastructure which ensure goods are ship out at fastest and safest. Low wage countries only has the edge of low wage. They can't compete with efficiency and ease of transport compare to China. Good infrastructure bring down cost of manufacturing

And Japan and US doesnt have world class infrastructure? Production is already moving out of China whether you accept it or not. Also, sooner or later, all countries that want to grow will start demanding that Chinese companies produce goods in their countries rather than importing, so even if you are the most efficient, you will still have to shift production, I am sure Xiomi or Vaio or Vivo or Haier never wanted to produce in India, but we forced them to, with Tariffs and red tape and now India is second biggest cellphone manufacturer. How long before other countries start doing that? Globalization is coming to an end and you will see tariff barriers emerging, no country wants to keep importing forever, countries will chose to manufacture at a higher price in their own country, saving foreign exchange rather than import cheaper goods.

 

[dbc]

Lol... US has no problem. No american consume drugs. Crime rate at ultra low. Shooting is rare. No unemployment. US economy are growing at 10% and no inflation. All is rosy for USA.

China may not even reed to grow, just wait for USA economy to self destruct. And India economy overtake UK not becos of brilliant of Modi but due to incompetent of B.johnson which causes UK to recess.

do you ever contribute with facts? all I hear from you is rhetoric with a side order of whataboutism. What does UK and India have to do with this topic? I am waiting for those dwarfing metric from tower.

 

[Beast]

And Japan and US doesnt have world class infrastructure? Production is already moving out of China whether you accept it or not. Also, sooner or later, all countries that want to grow will start demanding that Chinese companies produce goods in their countries rather than importing, so even if you are the most efficient, you will still have to shift production, I am sure Xiomi or Vaio or Vivo or Haier never wanted to produce in India, but we forced them to, with Tariffs and red tape and now India is second biggest cellphone manufacturer. How long before other countries start doing that?

And yes, u are correct USA don't have world class infrastructure. They don't have even high speed rail to ship heavy equipemt efficiently. I don't think we need an expert to tell that.

Japan has good infrastructure but extreme high labour cost compare to China. Look at Japan GDP per Capita vs China one.

do you ever contribute with facts? all I hear from you is rhetoric with a side order of whataboutism. What does UK and India have to do with this topic? I am waiting for those dwarfing metric from tower.

Another desperate attempt by u to divert my point. You mean I maglin about problem of US economy? If u want to continue your delusion, all is rosy for american economy with no problem. Go ahead and live in your dream.

 

[Baba_Yaga]

And yes, u are correct USA don't have world class infrastructure. They don't have even high speed rail to ship heavy equipemt efficiently. I don't think we need an expert to tell that.

Japan has good infrastructure but extreme high labour cost compare to China. Look at Japan GDP per Capita vs China one.


Another desperate attempt by u to divert my point. You mean I maglin about problem of US economy? If u want to continue your delusion, all is rosy for american economy with no problem. Go ahead and live in your dream.

US doesnt have high speed rail because they dont need it, there are only a small number of viable routes. Also, genius, high speed rail in China doesnt transport freight or cargo, you only have passenger trains for high speed rail, being Chinese you should know that. Current shape of high speed rail doest allow for large volumes of cargo to be transported, even a standard shipping container wont fit inside a high speed rail train. High speed trains are limited in both size of carriage and length, limiting their utility for freight transport.

Also, you have built high speed rail to every place that didnt need it and its bleeding money, other countries make rail networks keeping profit in mind. You didnt do that and now only a few of your routes are profitable

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/China-Railway-s-debt-nears-900bn-under-expansion-push#:~:text=China Railway's total liabilities grew,yuan net loss in 2021.

 

[MH.Yang]

The economic growth brought by the United States through printing money and raising interest rates is unsustainable. This will seriously hurt the US stock market, real estate market and domestic demand, and will seriously overdraw the future economic growth rate. Had it not been for the epidemic and intolerable high inflation in the United States, the Biden administration would not have adopted such crazy measures.

China's currency exchange rate has dropped from 6.4 at the beginning of the interest rate hike to 6.9 now. The currency fell by 7%, which led to China's ugly nominal GDP. However, it has also greatly reduced the amount of China's debt and stimulated China's exports to reach a record high. Unlike GDP, China's PPP has also seen high growth this year.

It is impossible for the United States to maintain such a high interest rate for a long time. If the Biden administration does not want the debt, stock market, housing market and other economic indicators to collapse completely, they will certainly return to normal interest rates before 2024. The paper GDP that China lost will recover sooner or later. This US interest rate hike will not only delay China's overtaking of the United States, but will even significantly advance China's overtaking of the United States.

The Chinese government will also take advantage of the time window when the currency is undervalued to optimize some potential economic problems, such as reducing foreign debt and suppressing excessively high house prices. One obvious evidence is that the Chinese government did not choose to follow the US interest rate hike, just like other countries, but to reduce interest rates and RRR. This is deliberately lowering the exchange rate of CNY to a lower point.

 

[Beast]

US doesnt have high speed rail because they dont need it, there are only a small number of viable routes. Also, genius, high speed rail in China doesnt transport freight or cargo, you only have passenger trains for high speed rail, being Chinese you should know that. Current shape of high speed rail doest allow for large volumes of cargo to be transported, even a standard shipping container wont fit inside a high speed rail train. High speed trains are limited in both size of carriage and length, limiting their utility for freight transport.

Also, you have built high speed rail to every place that didnt need it and its bleeding money, other countries make rail networks keeping profit in mind. You didnt do that and now only a few of your routes are profitable

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/China-Railway-s-debt-nears-900bn-under-expansion-push#:~:text=China Railway's total liabilities grew,yuan net loss in 2021.

You are delusion. Of cos sourgrape will claim it's not necessary. Tell me how do u ship heavy equipment(30tons) from point to point rapidly over a distance of 1000km? By air freight? Lol..

And for 500-700km travel distance. You think taking a flight will save u much time compare to high speed rail? And don't tell me to drive becos that will take u a whopping 6-7 hrs to accomplish that compare to high speed rail of 2 hrs.

 

[FuturePAF]

Production will not move out of China anytime. That is why Yuan rise are keep in check to maintain our cost edge. China still has world class infrastructure which ensure goods are ship out at fastest and safest. Low wage countries only has the edge of low wage. They can't compete with efficiency and ease of transport compare to China. Good infrastructure bring down cost of manufacturing products. No only that. High tech and efficient production ensure low cost produced. Compare to highly ill efficient labour intensive production.

As long as China has the capital to invest in robotics to outpace labor costs; I.e. increasing worker productivity AND catches up in terms of key technologies to continue to capture market share it will keep advancing. Without these two fundamentals it will be fall behind due to demographics.

The next 30 years will be crucial, as China will have to return to positive demographics; finding a way to encourage its youth to start to have 2-3 children per couple. For that there is going to have to be a massive wealth transfer, primarily in the form of housing (which will also help deal with the housing crisis).

Finally China will need to really get BRI up an running and help its partner nations get their act together so they can absorb more Chinese exports, offsetting efforts to curtail Chinese industrial development. This will also be a more useful and productive outlet for Chinese investment then continued investment in Chinese real estate. BRI would also help China lower its cost of importing raw materials and exporting finished goods, making it more competitive with Europe and even the US.

The US knows it’s in a marathon and as long as it debt to GDP is lower then that of its competition and is also the reserve currency of the world it will be able to outpace any competition. If China has any hope of competing, it will have to make its currency a world reserve currency as well as lower its Debt to GDP ratio.

But just like any other country, vested interests in China probably will hold back their country from making needed economic reforms before its too late, and we might just be seeing a larger version of what happened to Japan over the last 30 years.