3. China - 294 megatons (China has over half the nuclear firepower of the United States)
So 294 MT is half of 1273 MT?
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3. China - 294 megatons (China has over half the nuclear firepower of the United States)
Four brigades of DF-41 ICBMs (Heilongjiang, Henan, Xinjiang, and Tibet Provinces) with one re-load per DF-41 TEL yields 96 total DF-41 ICBMs.
China could have deployed 96 DF-41 ICBMs.
Let's count the total number of Chinese DF-41 ICBMs.
Chinese media, Russia's Sputnik News, and Russia's RT have reported that China has deployed three brigades of DF-41 ICBMs.
The DF-41 ICBM locations are:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China (see video below)
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)
However, there appears to be a possible fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade in Tibet Province in southwestern China (see picture below). The terrain looks like the Tibetan plateau. The wide distribution of DF-41 ICBMs throughout continental-sized China is logical.
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Re-load of DF-41 ICBM
Chinese media have reported the deployment of three brigades of DF-41 ICBMs. There is photographic evidence of a possible fourth brigade of DF-41 ICBMs on the Tibetan plateau. However, we have only counted the number of DF-41 ICBM TELs (ie. Transporter Erector Launcher).
It is inefficient to fire only one ballistic missile per launcher. It is more logical to fire two ballistic missiles per launcher. This process is called re-loading. A DF-41 TEL can either be re-loaded with another DF-41 ICBM missile nearby or the DF-41 TEL can drive to a hidden re-supply location for another DF-41 ICBM.
If you accept that China has one re-load missile for each DF-41 TEL then the total number of Chinese DF-41 ICBMs has to be doubled.
Four brigades of DF-41 ICBMs (Heilongjiang, Henan, Xinjiang, and Tibet Provinces) with one re-load per DF-41 TEL yields 96 total DF-41 ICBMs.
4 DF-41 ICBM brigades x 12 DF-41 ICBM ballistic missiles per brigade x 2 (for the re-load) = 96 total DF-41 ICBMs
96 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs for each DF-41 ICBM = 960 thermonuclear warheads on DF-41 ICBMs
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By the way, ballistic missile re-loading was a common practice. Thus, the US-Soviet/Russian START treaty specifically prohibits missile reloading (including silo-based ICBMs). However, China is not a signatory to any arms-control treaty on ICBMs and is not bound by the prohibition on ICBM reload.
China Conducts Second Flight Test of New Long-Range Missile | The Washington Free Beacon
"Fisher said there are reports that the Second Artillery Corps, as China’s missile service is called, includes at least one reload missile for each mobile missile-launcher system.
If the new DF-41 is deployed in the future with a reload missile per launcher, it would vastly increase the numbers of nuclear warheads in the Chinese arsenal, as many as 120 to 240 warheads for each DF-41 [brigade] unit."
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If you haven't seen it yet, here is a Chinese DF-41 ICBM spotted at Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China. Chinese ballistic missiles are always deployed in a brigade, because it is a known standard Chinese military practice. There are charts of Chinese military brigades and the type of ballistic missiles under their control. Thus, if you spot a Chinese ballistic missile at a location then there are more nearby from the same brigade.
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This is an organization chart of a typical Chinese ballistic missile base. As you can see, the standard Chinese ballistic missile unit is a brigade. For example, in the chart below, the Hunan 803 Brigade controls 12 DF-5A ICBMs (which may have been upgraded by now to DF-5B 8-MIRV ICBMs).
Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | Asia Eye
Chart I: Organizational Structure of 55 Base
"Source: Second Artillery Handbook, July 25, 2011 (unpublished draft)"
Thank you very bery much for Calculation and Analysis brother @MartianStratfor's New Chinese ICBM Range Map
Stratfor has released an updated map of the ranges of Chinese ICBMs launched from northeastern Heilongjiang Province. I will discuss the ICBMs listed on Stratfor's map.
How Far China's Nuclear Capabilities Stretch | Stratfor
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China's DF-31 ICBM can only reach Alaska and Hawaii. "The United States currently fields 26 interceptors at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California."[1] We expect China to use the DF-31 ICBM to neutralize the anti-ballistic missile interceptor base at Fort Greely in Alaska.
China has two brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31 ICBM[2] located at:
1. Nanyang (813th Brigade)
2. Xining (Urban/Industrial Brigade or U/I Brigade)
China's DF-31A ICBM can reach every major American city except Miami, Florida.
China has seven brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31A ICBM[3] located at:
1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi
China's DF-5A/B ICBM can reach all of the United States.
China has eight brigades of the liquid-fuel DF-5A/B ICBM[4] located at:
1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)
China's DF-41 ICBM can also reach all of the United States.
China probably has four brigades of the solid-fuel DF-41 ICBM[5] located at:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)
d. There appears to be a fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade on the Chinese Tibetan Plateau (see picture below) in Tibet Province, China.
The total number of thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs can be calculated.
DF-31: 2 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 24 DF-31 ICBMs
DF-31A: 7 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 84 DF-31A ICBMs
DF-5A/B: 8 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 96 DF-5A/B ICBMs
DF-41: 4 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 48 DF-41 ICBMs
The DF-31 can only carry a single warhead. Thus, there are 24 thermonuclear warheads carried on the DF-31 ICBMs.
We should assume all DF-31A ICBMs are being upgraded to the DF-31B 3-MIRV variant.[6] Each DF-31A/B can carry three MIRVs. 84 DF-31A/B ICBMs x 3 = 252 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-5A missiles are being upgraded to DF-5B 8-MIRV missiles.[7] 96 DF-5B x 8 MIRVs = 768 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs on each missile.[8] 48 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs= 480 thermonuclear warheads.
The current total is 1,524 thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs (which does not include SLBMs).
I think the technical definition of a re-load for an ICBM in a silo is that another ICBM can be fired within 24 hours.
If you accept China has one re-load ICBM per TEL or Silo then you have to double China's total to 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
Does 3,048 land-based Chinese thermonuclear warheads seem like a lot? It is important to remember that China detonated its first 3.3-megaton thermonuclear bomb in 1967. That was 50 years ago. China's economy is huge and it had 50 years to build 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
References:
1. Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) - GlobalSecurity.org
2. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia
3. China: New START-type report | Nuclear Forces
Map of known DF-5A and DF-5B ICBM silo locations
Looking at an old map of known DF-5A and DF-5B silo locations, we see three brigades. Two brigades are DF-5A five-megaton single-warhead ICBMs and one brigade is DF-5B 10-MIRVed ICBMs.
As an aside, the map shows the locations of four DF-31A brigades
"Beijing has been retrofitting single-warhead ICBMs with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles.
For the past several months, China has been upgrading single-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), according to U.S. intelligence agencies, The Washington Times reports.
'China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads,' the head of U.S. Strategic Command Admiral Cecil D. Haney said in a January 22 speech."
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China puts on show of force with DF-31B mobile ICBM missile test | South China Morning Post
"The People's Liberation Army launched a Dongfeng-31B on September 25 from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Centre - also known as the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre - in Shanxi province, according to US-based online newspaper The Washington Free Beacon.
The DF-31B is an upgraded version of the DF-31A and the launch was at least the second time the PLA's Second Artillery Corps had tested a DF-31 missile in the past three months. In late July, the PLA conducted a flight test of a DF-31A in what was the fourth known flight test of that missile in two years.
...
'The DF-31A was designed to carry three warheads. I think the new DF-31B is possibly a multi-warhead version with higher accuracy,' Wong said."
7. China adds warheads to older DF-5s | The Washington Times
"China’s military has begun retrofitting single-warhead DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles, according to U.S. defense officials. The upgrading of the DF-5 missiles with multiple warheads, known as MIRVs, was detected by U.S. intelligence agencies within the past several months.
The addition of three warheads on the long-range missiles marks a significant shift for China’s nuclear arsenal that is increasing in both warheads and missile systems under a major buildup."
8. DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD."
China's DF-31 ICBM can only reach Alaska and Hawaii. "The United States currently fields 26 interceptors at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California."[1] We expect China to use the DF-31 ICBM to neutralize the anti-ballistic missile interceptor base at Fort Greely in Alaska.
China Tests [DF-5C ICBM] Missile With 10 Warheads | The Washington Free Beacon
In the previous post, I said: "Fourthly, let's benchmark China's DF-5B against the Russian SS-18 Satan ICBM. The DF-5B has a larger diameter at 11 feet vs the SS-18's 10-foot diameter. Both the DF-5B and the Russian SS-18 have the same length at 106 feet. The Russian SS-18 was 'deployed with 10 warheads and up to 40 penetration aids and the missile's high throw-weight made it theoretically capable of carrying more warheads or penetration aids.' Thus, there is every reason to believe China's DF-5B ICBM can carry at least 10 thermonuclear warheads."
My insight was right on target. The Washington Free Beacon just reported a test of China's DF-5C ICBM with 10 MIRVs (see article below).
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China Tests Missile With 10 Warheads | The Washington Free Beacon
"China flight tested a new variant of a long-range missile with 10 warheads in what defense officials say represents a dramatic shift in Beijing's strategic nuclear posture.
The flight test of the DF-5C missile was carried out earlier this month using 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs. The test of the inert warheads was monitored closely by U.S. intelligence agencies, said two officials familiar with reports of the missile test.
The missile was fired from the Taiyuan Space Launch Center in central China and flew to an impact range in the western Chinese desert.
...
The test of a missile with 10 warheads is significant because it indicates the secretive Chinese military is increasing the number of warheads in its arsenal."