China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

[Martian2]

Good time for China to produce as much thermonuclear warheads as possible that can destroy both Russia and US.

It's fun to talk about thermonuclear weapons.

Realistically, they'll never be used.

It's maddening that the United States government refuses to formally acknowledge a state of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) with China.

The US government keeps pretending that it has significantly more strategic thermonuclear warheads than China. It does not.

Strategic thermonuclear warheads in reserve are useless. Without a delivery vehicle (e.g. ICBM or SLBM), the reserve thermonuclear warhead never comes into play during an actual war. An all-out nuke war will not wait one year until new ICBM or SLBM missiles are built.

 

[Jlaw]

It's fun to talk about thermonuclear weapons.

Realistically, they'll never be used.

It's maddening that the United States government refuses to formally acknowledge a state of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) with China.

The US government keeps pretending that it has significantly more strategic thermonuclear warheads than China. It does not.

Strategic thermonuclear warheads in reserve are useless. Without a delivery vehicle (e.g. ICBM or SLBM), the reserve thermonuclear warhead never comes into play during an actual war. An all-out nuke war will not wait one year until new ICBM or SLBM missiles are built.

I find it strange that they have considered using "tactical nukes" or small warheads. To me any nuke, small or big hitting Chinese or Russian soil will result in MAD.
But they do undermine China's nuke arsenal for a good reason--to get China to fully come out with a real number but that isn't going to happen.

 

[Martian2]

I find it strange that they have considered using "tactical nukes" or small warheads. To me any nuke, small or big hitting Chinese or Russian soil will result in MAD.
But they do undermine China's nuke arsenal for a good reason--to get China to fully come out with a real number but that isn't going to happen.

The United States is resorting to sensational displays of its thermonuclear might to remind Russia and China about US capability.

In my opinion, it's a three-way standoff. I think the US, Russia, and China all have the capability to level the other two.

Here's a recent US Trident II launch off the coast of Los Angeles from last month (Nov. 7 2015). It's pretty cool.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The United States is resorting to sensational displays of its thermonuclear might to remind Russia and China about US capability.

In my opinion, it's a three-way standoff. I think the US, Russia, and China all have the capability to level the other two.

Here's a recent US Trident II launch off the coast of Los Angeles from last month (Nov. 7 2015). It's pretty cool.

This was probably a JL-2 test back in several years ago.

US only has 725 strategic nuclear warheads aimed at China under New START treaty

You've read the misleading mainstream media propaganda. The US has tens of thousands of nuclear warheads. Most of these warheads are tactical and cannot reach China.

Let's talk about strategic nuclear warheads that are capable of hitting China.

The U.S.-Russian New START treaty entered into force on February 5, 2011 (see citation from U.S. Department of State below)..

By the New START treaty deadline of February 5 2018, the U.S. and Russia are each limited to a maximum of 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads (see paragraph two under "Aggregate limits:" in the citation below).

Under the long-standing U.S. SIOP plan (which calls for a simultaneous nuclear strike on Russia and China) and its classified successor, we have to divide the US strategic nuclear arsenal into two halves. Both Russia and China are continental sized. This means the U.S. only has 725 strategic nuclear warheads available under the New START treaty to aim at China.
----------

New START

1550 in half should be 775.

 

[Martian2]

This was probably a JL-2 test back in several years ago.

1550 in half should be 775.

You're right. 1,550 divided by 2 is 775. I apologize for the error. Sometimes, I write posts when I'm tired.

After we subtract the subsonic and non-stealthy B-52s (which will never reach their targets in a nuke war), the number is closer to 700.

 

[somebozo]

Nuclear firepower is very important. Russia annexed 20% of Georgia, an U.N. member, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The United States did nothing. To the contrary, the United States offered a "reset" to the Russians. This is called appeasement.

Aren't all of you curious to see what happens when The Dragon roars someday? Will the U.S. also do nothing? That is my prediction.

Most of the powers work in passive mode..the did not do anything Hitler roared..neither they did anything when communism was flourishing..they let both destroy themselves under their own weight...as long at it did not impact their economy or kill their people..everyone washed hands in Saddam weapon trade..but leaving him alone to handle the mess once the funds dried out..

 

[Martian2]

Comparing American and Chinese strategic thermonuclear warheads

By February 2018, the United States is only permitted to have 1,550 strategic thermonuclear warheads. Due to a definition quirk, a bomber counts as "one" thermonuclear warhead.

1,550 thermonuclear warheads - 77 B-52H bombers - 68 B-1B bombers - 20 B-2A bombers = 1,385 thermonuclear warheads

I subtracted out the American bombers, because I don't think they can reach their targets (due to EMP vulnerability).

With 1,385 strategic thermonuclear warheads under a verifiable New START treaty, the US has to divide its arsenal into two to simultaneously strike continent-sized Russia and China.

1,385 / 2 = 693 thermonuclear warheads aimed by the US at China
----------

Now, let's look at how many Chinese strategic warheads are aimed at the US in a counter-strike.

Eight known Chinese DF-5A/B ICBM brigades

1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)

Assuming all eight brigades have been upgraded to DF-5B ICBMs (or will soon be fully upgraded in the near future):

8 DF-5B brigades x 12 DF-5B ICBMs per brigade x 8 MIRVs per DF-5B ICBM = 768 Chinese thermonuclear warheads from DF-5B ICBMs

Seven known Chinese DF-31A ICBM brigades

1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi

7 DF-31A brigades x 12 ICBMs per brigade x 3 MIRVs per DF-31A ICBM = 252 thermonuclear warheads from DF-31A ICBMs

Five Chinese Type 094 SSBNs

The fifth Chinese Type 094 SSBN was seen in dry dock about 1 1/2 years ago. It should be operational by now.

5 Type 094 SSBNs x 12 JL-2 SLBMs per Type 094 SSBN x 8 MIRVs per JL-2 SLBM = 480 thermonuclear warheads from JL-2 SLBMs

China should have produced 100 DF-41 ICBMs during the past 42 months

It's been 3 1/2 years since the first known DF-41 ICBM launch. That's 42 months.

42 x 2 = 84 DF-41 ICBMs (probable lower bound)
42 x 3 = 126 DF-41 ICBMs (probable upper bound)

Assuming an average of 100 DF-41 ICBMs (probable middle estimate) with 10 MIRVs per missile, that's an additional 1,000 thermonuclear warheads on DF-41 ICBMs.

Adding up all of China's strategic thermonuclear warheads.

DF-5B thermonuclear warheads: 768
DF-31A thermonuclear warheads: 252
JL-2 thermonuclear warheads: 480
DF-41 thermonuclear warheads: 1,000

In total, China should presently have about 2,500 strategic thermonuclear warheads.

China should have 3 1/2 times more strategic thermonuclear warheads aimed at the US than vice versa. However, a thermonuclear war is unwinnable. 693 thermonuclear explosions plus radioactive fallout would render China unrecognizable.

China technically should have significantly more strategic thermonuclear warheads than the US, but Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) would ensure their non-use. It is illogical and completely insane for one mature thermonuclear power to launch a nuke war against another mature thermonuclear power.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Comparing American and Chinese strategic thermonuclear warheads

By February 2018, the United States is only permitted to have 1,550 strategic thermonuclear warheads. Due to a definition quirk, a bomber counts as "one" thermonuclear warhead.

1,550 thermonuclear warheads - 77 B-52H bombers - 68 B-1B bombers - 20 B-2A bombers = 1,385 thermonuclear warheads

I subtracted out the American bombers, because I don't think they can reach their targets (due to EMP vulnerability).

With 1,385 strategic thermonuclear warheads under a verifiable New START treaty, the US has to divide its arsenal into two to simultaneously strike continent-sized Russia and China.

1,385 / 2 = 693 thermonuclear warheads aimed by the US at China
----------

Now, let's look at how many Chinese strategic warheads are aimed at the US in a counter-strike.

Eight known Chinese DF-5A/B ICBM brigades

1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)

Assuming all eight brigades have been upgraded to DF-5B ICBMs (or will soon be fully upgraded in the near future):

8 DF-5B brigades x 12 DF-5B ICBMs per brigade x 8 MIRVs per DF-5B ICBM = 768 Chinese thermonuclear warheads from DF-5B ICBMs

Seven known Chinese DF-31A ICBM brigades

1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi

7 DF-31A brigades x 12 ICBMs per brigade x 3 MIRVs per DF-31A ICBM = 252 thermonuclear warheads from DF-31A ICBMs

Five Chinese Type 094 SSBNs

The fifth Chinese Type 094 SSBN was seen in dry dock about 1 1/2 years ago. It should be operational by now.

5 Type 094 SSBNs x 12 JL-2 SLBMs per Type 094 SSBN x 8 MIRVs per JL-2 SLBM = 480 thermonuclear warheads from JL-2 SLBMs

China should have produced 100 DF-41 ICBMs during the past 42 months

It's been 3 1/2 years since the first known DF-41 ICBM launch. That's 42 months.

42 x 2 = 84 DF-41 ICBMs (probable lower bound)
42 x 3 = 126 DF-41 ICBMs (probable upper bound)

Assuming an average of 100 DF-41 ICBMs (probable middle estimate) with 10 MIRVs per missile, that's an additional 1,000 thermonuclear warheads on DF-41 ICBMs.

Adding up all of China's strategic thermonuclear warheads.

DF-5B thermonuclear warheads: 768
DF-31A thermonuclear warheads: 252
JL-2 thermonuclear warheads: 480
DF-41 thermonuclear warheads: 1,000

In total, China should presently have about 2,500 strategic thermonuclear warheads.

China should have 3 1/2 times more strategic thermonuclear warheads aimed at the US than vice versa. However, a thermonuclear war is unwinnable. 693 thermonuclear explosions plus radioactive fallout would render China unrecognizable.

China technically should have significantly more strategic thermonuclear warheads than the US, but Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) would ensure their non-use. It is illogical and completely insane for one mature thermonuclear power to launch a nuke war against another mature thermonuclear power.

Under the MAD deterrence principle, size of thermonuclear stockpile should be kept at a level adequate to serve the purpose i.e. assured-destruction. Using Russia as a benchmark which is 1273 megatons, an over-kill level, maybe China should double the reported 294 megatons to say 600 megatons. We have to note that it's not just North America but potential launch sites in other parts of world, some redundancy capacity needed.

Of course delivery systems, missile defence, space and cyber warfare are all equally important as thermonuclear stockpile. Progress in various sectors this year so far are alright e.g. DF-ZF, 41, 5B-MIRV, BMD/low-orbit ASAT, 094, DN-3, Beidou, but not enough. Need faster progress next year.

 

[Martian2]

Under the MAD deterrence principle, size of thermonuclear stockpile should be kept at a level adequate to serve the purpose i.e. assured-destruction. Using Russia as a benchmark which is 1273 megatons, an over-kill level, maybe China should double the reported 294 megatons to say 600 megatons. We have to note that it's not just North America but potential launch sites in other parts of world, some redundancy capacity needed.

Of course delivery systems, missile defence, space and cyber warfare are all equally important as thermonuclear stockpile. Progress in various sectors this year so far are alright e.g. DF-ZF, 41, 5B-MIRV, BMD/low-orbit ASAT, 094, DN-3, Beidou, but not enough. Need faster progress next year.

The 294 megaton estimate is about 10 to 15 years old.

Let's calculate a current estimate.

DF-5B thermonuclear warheads: 768
DF-31A thermonuclear warheads: 252
JL-2 thermonuclear warheads: 480
DF-41 thermonuclear warheads: 1,000

Each DF-5B warhead is a half-megaton. Eight DF-5B warheads equal 4 megatons. The original DF-5A had a single five-megaton warhead. There are eight DF-5B brigades. Each brigade has 12 ICBMs. The sum of 96 DF-5B ICBMs contains 384 megatons.

There are seven DF-31A brigades. Each brigade has 12 ICBMs. There are a total of 84 DF-31A ICBMs. Each DF-31A can carry a single one-megaton warhead or three smaller ones. An estimate of the total DF-31A megatonnage is 84 megatons.

There are five Type 094 SSBNs. Each JL-2 SLBM can carry a one-megaton warhead or eight smaller warheads. An estimate of the total JL-2 megatonnage is: 5 Type 094 SSBNs x 12 JL-2 SLBMs x one megaton = 60 megatons

There should be about 100 DF-41 ICBMs. China has already conducted five tests, so you know China has a lot of them. Also, we've seen pictures of DF-41 ICBMs coming out of the manufacturing plant or being tested on an angled speed track.

100 DF-41 ICBMs with a one-megaton warhead or ten smaller warheads. An estimate of the total DF-41 ICBM yield is 100 megatons.

Let's add up all of the megatons.

DF-5B: 384 megatons
DF-31A: 84 megatons
JL-2: 60 megatons
DF-41: 100 megatons

A contemporary estimate of China's total strategic megatonnage is 628 megatons.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The 294 megaton estimate is about 10 to 15 years old.

Let's calculate a current estimate.

DF-5B thermonuclear warheads: 768
DF-31A thermonuclear warheads: 252
JL-2 thermonuclear warheads: 480
DF-41 thermonuclear warheads: 1,000

Each DF-5B warhead is a half-megaton. Eight DF-5B warheads equal 4 megatons. The original DF-5A had a single five-megaton warhead. There are eight DF-5B brigades. Each brigade has 12 ICBMs. The sum of 96 DF-5B ICBMs contain 384 megatons.

There are seven DF-31A brigades. Each brigade has 12 ICBMs. There are a total of 84 DF-31A ICBMs. Each DF-31A can carry a single one-megaton warhead or three smaller ones. An estimate of the total DF-31A megatonnage is 84 megatons.

There are five Type 094 SSBNs. Each JL-2 SLBM can carry a one-megaton warhead or eight smaller warheads. An estimate of the total JL-2 megatonnage is: 5 Type 094 SSBNs x 12 JL-2 SLBMs x one megaton = 60 megatons

There should be about 100 DF-41 ICBMs. China has already conducted five tests, so you know China has a lot of them. Also, we've seen pictures of DF-41 ICBMs coming out of the manufacturing plant or being tested on an angled speed track.

100 DF-41 ICBMs with a one-megaton warhead or ten smaller warheads. An estimate of the total DF-41 ICBM yield is 100 megatons.

Let's add up all of the megatons.

DF-5B: 384 megatons
DF-31A: 84 megatons
JL-2: 60 megatons
DF-41: 100 megatons

A contemporary estimate of China's total strategic megatonnage is 628 megatons.

According to Huanqiu:

JL-2 = 50 tonnes
JL-2A = 57 tonnes

The diameter of the JL-2A has also been increased from 2 meters of the JL-2 to 2.25 meters.

首曝高清图：巨浪2让中国水下核威慑力剧增(2)_环球军事网

 

[Shotgunner51]

According to Huanqiu:

JL-2 = 50 tonnes
JL-2A = 57 tonnes

The diameter of the JL-2A has also been increased from 2 meters of the JL-2 to 2.25 meters.

首曝高清图：巨浪2让中国水下核威慑力剧增(2)_环球军事网

Does it mean that JL-2A can carry warheads of higher yield than 5 megaton, without loosing range?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Does it mean that JL-2A can carry warheads of higher yield than 5 megaton, without loosing range?

The DF-41 can carry a single 5 megaton warhead with a range still beyond 14000 km, so I guess it should be slightly less for the JL-2A.

The DF-41 is absolutely a monster with 21 meters in the length and 2.5 meters in the diameter, and it should also weigh about 80 tonnes.

I am expecting the JL-2A to carry eight 500KT thermonuclear warheads with a range up to 8000 km or four 500KT thermonuclear warheads with a range up to 12000 km.

@Martian2, the DF-31A now should be upgraded into the DF-31B.

I think the DF-31B should fully phase out the DF-31A by 2020.

 

[Martian2]

Correcting DF-41 ICBM 10-MIRV warhead yield to 225 kilotons each

I underestimated the yield of China's new DF-41 ICBM with 10 MIRVs.

I had used an estimate of 100 kilotons per warhead. That is incorrect. According to The Diplomat, the proper yield is 150 kilotons to 300 kilotons per warhead.

I took the average to reach a 225 kiloton yield for each DF-41 ICBM MIRV warhead.

This means each DF-41 ICBM carries a total of 2.25 megatons (not the one megaton that I assumed earlier).

China Tests New Missile Capable of Hitting Entire United States | The Diplomat

----------

Here is my revised estimate of China's total yield from its strategic thermonuclear warheads.

DF-5B: 384 megatons
DF-31B: 84 megatons
JL-2: 60 megatons
DF-41: 225 megatons

The best estimate of China's total megatonnage from strategic thermonuclear warheads is 753 megatons.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The original Type 094, the boats #1 and #2 belong to this subclass.

The slightly improved Type 094A, the boats #3 and #4 belong to this subclass.

The further more improved Type 094B or Type 094G, the boats #5 to #8 belong to this subclass.

 

[Martian2]

The original Type 094, the boats #1 and #2 belong to this subclass.
View attachment 283826


The slightly improved Type 094A, the boats #3 and #4 belong to this subclass.
View attachment 283827


The further more improved Type 094B or Type 094G, the boats #5 to #8 belong to this subclass.
View attachment 283828

The second picture of China's Type 094 SSBN intrigued me. It looks like it has 18 launch tubes. The picture can be found in an April 27, 2015 Popular Science article on the Type 094 SSBN.

I've never seen a Chinese SSBN with more than 6 launch tubes on each side. The picture looks like a Type 094 upgrade. To be fair, one to two years ago on Chinese Defence Forum (CDF), you ChineseTiger1986 claimed there was a Type 094 SSBN upgrade in the works.

Chinese Navy Stars in Latest U.S.Intelligence Report | Popular Science