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http://www.forbes.com/sites/andersc...al-court-on-the-south-china-sea/#136b279d2887
Nguyen Van Hung, captain of Vietnamese Coast Guard vessel No. 8003, speaks over a walkie-talkie while being flanked by a Chinese Coast Guard ship, left, in disputed waters claimed by both China and Vietnam west of the Paracel islands, Vietnam, on May 15, 2014. Vietnam’s demand that a Chinese oil rig be removed from contested waters near the Paracel Islands reflected a renewed chill and continuing between the two Communist nations. Photographer: Oanh Ha/Bloomberg
Now that the Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration voted resoundingly in Philippines’ favor on the South China Sea, it is Vietnam’s turn to bring an arbitration case. China has interfered massively in Vietnam’s economic development — not only against its fishing, but against its offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction. China justifies its interference in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) based on China’s recently-claimed 9-dash line — the same 1930s line that the Court invalidated yesterday in the Philippine legal victory.
In 2012, China cut the cables of seismic equipment used by Vietnam to explore its own EEZ for oil and gas. Starting in 2014, China repeatedly explored for oil within Vietnam’s 200 nautical mile EEZ, with its high-tech $1 billion HS 981 drilling rig. Subsidized Chinese steel-hulled boats regularly sink wooden Vietnamese fishing boats in disputed areas of the South China Sea, most recently last weekend. In what the Vietnamese describe as a “merciless and pitiless” incident, Chinese boats tried to prevent rescuers from retrieving fishermen thrown overboard.
With the Court’s ruling yesterday, nothing stops Vietnam from bringing a similar arbitration case against China — and getting an almost certain win. Vietnam has done a great job of patching up its differences with countries more reasonable than China. Vietnam even submitted a joint submission with Malaysia on their shared continental shelf — a model of cooperation and reason. Vietnam still claims all of the Spratlys and Paracel Islands, but one senses none of the stridency and intensity regarding these claims that was exhibited by China on their 9-dash line claim.
My prediction is that Vietnamese leaders simply want — and will soon petition — the Court to ascertain the limits of their EEZ, based on 200 nautical miles from the coastline, plus additional continental shelf. Once this is settled, Vietnam will be theoretically free to fully utilize its EEZ.
Enforcement of Vietnam’s claim is another matter. China’s reaction to the Philippine’s successful case over the coming months will help Vietnam know what to expect after a new ruling in its favor. But there is now every reason for Vietnam to bring an arbitration case. As President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines discovered, there is no reason to bargain with China prior to a PCA ruling, as the PCA ruling strengthened the bargaining position of the Philippines. China knew this, which is why China was so desperate for bilateral negotiations prior to yesterday’s ruling. Vietnam’s bargaining position with China will be similarly strengthened by bringing a case and receiving a ruling from the Hague tribunal.
Let’s hope Vietnam now takes action.
Nguyen Van Hung, captain of Vietnamese Coast Guard vessel No. 8003, speaks over a walkie-talkie while being flanked by a Chinese Coast Guard ship, left, in disputed waters claimed by both China and Vietnam west of the Paracel islands, Vietnam, on May 15, 2014. Vietnam’s demand that a Chinese oil rig be removed from contested waters near the Paracel Islands reflected a renewed chill and continuing between the two Communist nations. Photographer: Oanh Ha/Bloomberg
Now that the Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration voted resoundingly in Philippines’ favor on the South China Sea, it is Vietnam’s turn to bring an arbitration case. China has interfered massively in Vietnam’s economic development — not only against its fishing, but against its offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction. China justifies its interference in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) based on China’s recently-claimed 9-dash line — the same 1930s line that the Court invalidated yesterday in the Philippine legal victory.
In 2012, China cut the cables of seismic equipment used by Vietnam to explore its own EEZ for oil and gas. Starting in 2014, China repeatedly explored for oil within Vietnam’s 200 nautical mile EEZ, with its high-tech $1 billion HS 981 drilling rig. Subsidized Chinese steel-hulled boats regularly sink wooden Vietnamese fishing boats in disputed areas of the South China Sea, most recently last weekend. In what the Vietnamese describe as a “merciless and pitiless” incident, Chinese boats tried to prevent rescuers from retrieving fishermen thrown overboard.
With the Court’s ruling yesterday, nothing stops Vietnam from bringing a similar arbitration case against China — and getting an almost certain win. Vietnam has done a great job of patching up its differences with countries more reasonable than China. Vietnam even submitted a joint submission with Malaysia on their shared continental shelf — a model of cooperation and reason. Vietnam still claims all of the Spratlys and Paracel Islands, but one senses none of the stridency and intensity regarding these claims that was exhibited by China on their 9-dash line claim.
My prediction is that Vietnamese leaders simply want — and will soon petition — the Court to ascertain the limits of their EEZ, based on 200 nautical miles from the coastline, plus additional continental shelf. Once this is settled, Vietnam will be theoretically free to fully utilize its EEZ.
Enforcement of Vietnam’s claim is another matter. China’s reaction to the Philippine’s successful case over the coming months will help Vietnam know what to expect after a new ruling in its favor. But there is now every reason for Vietnam to bring an arbitration case. As President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines discovered, there is no reason to bargain with China prior to a PCA ruling, as the PCA ruling strengthened the bargaining position of the Philippines. China knew this, which is why China was so desperate for bilateral negotiations prior to yesterday’s ruling. Vietnam’s bargaining position with China will be similarly strengthened by bringing a case and receiving a ruling from the Hague tribunal.
Let’s hope Vietnam now takes action.
