China-US Geopolitics: News & Discussions

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

All this time there was negotiation behind the scences between the two great powers.

Manila got just used. Did they know?

What matters that the two great powers find a modus operandi and work towards solving the golbal problems.

The biggest at the moment is security from extremism and global economy.

Without the two agreeing, nothing will happen.

Russia must be part of the security measures.

Economy is between US & China.

There is too much chaos under the heavens.

Time for Harmony under the Heavens. For everyone!

 

[ahojunk]

The US strategy for the SCS is unraveling. ASEAN don't give a hoot.
The so-called kangaroo court ruling is a worthless piece of paper and a farce.

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U.S. diplomatic strategy on South China Sea appears to founder
WASHINGTON | By David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick
Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:05pm EDT


In the lead-up to an international court ruling on China's claims in the South China Sea this month, United States officials talked about rallying a coalition to impose "terrible" costs to Beijing's international reputation if flouted the court's decision.

But just two weeks after the July 12 announcement by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague - which at least on paper, appeared to be a humiliating defeat for China - the U.S. strategy appears to be unraveling and the court's ruling is in danger of becoming irrelevant.

Earlier this year, U.S. officials spoke repeatedly of the need for countries in the Asia-Pacific region and elsewhere, including the European Union, to make it clear that the decision of the court should be binding.

"We need to be ready to be very loud and vocal, in harmony together ... to say that this is international law, this is incredibly important, it is binding on all parties," Amy Searight, the then-U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia, said in February.

Then in April, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China risked "terrible" damage to its reputation if it ignored The Hague's ruling.

The top lawyer from the Philippines, which brought the case against China, even said Beijing risked "outlaw" status.

The United States had backed Manila's case on the grounds that China's claims to 85 percent of the South China Sea, one of the world's busiest trade routes, were a threat to freedom of navigation and international law.

Yet after the international court rejected Beijing's position, the U.S. calls for a united front appear to have made little headway, with only six countries joining Washington in insisting that the decision should be binding.

They include the Philippines, but not several other countries with their own claims to parts of the South China Sea that might benefit if Beijing observed the decision.

China also scored a major diplomatic victory earlier this week, when the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) dropped any reference to the ruling from a joint statement at the end of a meeting of the 10-country group's foreign minister in Laos. This followed objections from Cambodia, Beijing's closest ASEAN ally.

On July 15, the European Union, distracted after Britain's vote to leave the bloc, issued a statement taking note of the ruling, but avoiding direct reference to Beijing or any assertion that the decision was binding.


RULING RISKS IRRELEVANCE

On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed satisfaction that ASEAN had issued a communique that championed the rule of law and said the omission of any reference to the arbitration case did not detract from its importance.

He also said it was "impossible" for the ruling to become irrelevant because it is legally binding.

But analysts said it now risks exactly that, not least because Washington has failed to press the issue effectively with its friends and allies.

"We should all be worried that this case is going to go down as nothing more than a footnote because its impact was only as strong as the international community was going to make it," said Greg Poling, a South China Sea expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank.

"And the international community has voted by not saying anything. The consensus seems to be 'We don’t care. We don’t want to hold China to these standards.'"

Dean Cheng, an expert on China with the Heritage Foundation think-tank, said Washington appeared reluctant to push a tougher line with Beijing - a vital economic partner as well as a strategic rival - with only a few months to go in President Barack Obama's tenure and a presidential election in November.

"What we have is China pushing very hard into the South China Sea, physically, politically, illegally and diplomatically, and the United States refraining from doing very much at all," said Cheng.

One reason for the administration's relative passivity may be its desire to prevent any major escalation of the dispute after the ruling, including further land reclamation by China or the declaration of a new air defense identification zone.

China has so far responded only with sharpened rhetoric, but analysts and officials worry that Beijing might take bolder action after it hosts the Group of 20 meeting of the world's biggest economies in September.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick in Washington and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; editing by G Crosse)

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Don't forget that Japanese strategy has also faild in SCS.

Australia is irrlevant. Just have to say what it is asked to say.

Good times ahead.

 

[ahojunk]

Good to see that China is now active on the diplomatic front.
This will help in the projection of soft power.
Two big wins so far - AIIB and OBOR.

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Active policies broaden China’s diplomacy
Source:Global Times Published: 2016-7-28 23:48:01

The width and depth of China's diplomacy have been greatly expanded since China has implemented a more active foreign policy in recent years. This has aroused deep concern from the US. Washington's elites have made stereotyped analyses of China's strategic intentions from a geopolitical perspective. Out of anxiety, they are keen on analyzing China's diplomatic failures, more like seeking grounds to comfort themselves.

A commentary published by Foreign Policy recently reviewed the foreign policy failures China has made over the past few years. It claimed the US is being welcomed in Asia because of China's diplomatic blunders. It also pointed out China's diplomatic setbacks in Europe, taking the refusal of the EU to grant China "market economy status" as evidence.

China does face a string of challenges in the South China Sea and Northeast Asia. But they do not represent the whole picture. In fact, our diplomatic strategies have become more clear-cut and active, and some strategic breakthroughs, which are beyond imagination, have been made to reshape China's diplomatic landscape.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a highlight. The bank was successfully founded despite obstructions by the US and Japan. It's a diplomatic masterpiece by a new emerging economy. The One Belt, One Road initiative, as an important blueprint for regional cooperation, not only has a clear vision but also conforms to reality. Giving full play to the advantages of China's economies of scale, and focusing China's foreign relations on win-win cooperation, the initiative demonstrates a new mindset of China that is different to those of out-dated expansionist powers.

EU members have maintained a sound relationship with China. Our close partners span from Africa to Latin America. China-Russia relations have been unprecedentedly consolidated; the AIIB and the "Belt and Road" initiative have gained wide popularity in China's periphery; a China-centered East Asian economic pattern has taken shape, and the connectivity between China and surrounding countries is gradually advancing.

Chinese diplomacy in recent years has witnessed new problems. The root cause is that the US rebalance to the Asia-Pacific has strategically squeezed China. So far, the frictions between China and a few neighboring countries are still controllable. By preventing the Philippines and Vietnam from further nibbling away at China's reefs, islands as well as maritime interests, and our success in island construction, China has gained the momentum in safeguarding its sovereignty. The interference of the US and Japan has complicated the South China Sea issue, but wrangling with them has helped boost China's capabilities of handling international disputes.

A rising power will always be suppressed by an established power. China as a rapidly developing country must do more in diplomacy. There will be ups and downs in the process, but the results matter more. China's peaceful rise is a fact. This is enough to give China's diplomacy a high score.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

China does not wish to replace US.

Chinese paradigm is totally different than that of the US.

China needs to master the art of communication.

Chinese diplomacy is evolving rather well.

But soft power only happens with effective communication.

Chinese cultural industry must play an important role in this.

 

[ahojunk]

The big 2 have many avenues to chit chat and look after their interests.

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Stable development of Sino-U.S. ties in interest of both sides: Yang
2016-07-26 11:10 | chinadaily.com.cn | Editor: Feng Shuang

Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi (R) shakes hands with US National Security Advisor Susan Rice in Beijing, July 25, 2016. (Photo/Xinhua)

State Councilor Yang Jiechi said he hopes that China and the U.S. could make efforts to expand cooperation in various fields and manage and control their differences in a constructive way.

He made the comment when meeting with visiting U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice in Beijing on Monday.

Yang said, as one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world, the China-U.S. ties have made progress in terms of practical cooperation in various fields, but it also faces a lot of challenges.

"To maintain the stable development of China-U.S. bilateral ties is in line with the interests of both sides and this requires concerted efforts from both countries," he told Rice, who is visiting China from Sunday to Wednesday.

Yang said that he hoped China and the U.S. could stick to the principles of no conflicts, no confrontation, mutual respects and cooperation for win-win results, and focus on their common interests to expand cooperation.

He also noted that both sides should manage and control differences in a constructive way in order to push forward the consistent and stable development of bilateral ties.

During the meeting, Yang emphasized Beijing's firm opposition on the arbitration case, saying that China will continue to steadfastly safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea.

China strongly urges the U.S. to seriously treat China's concern and not to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea, he said.

According to Yang, given the current global political and economic situation, to ensure fruitful results to be yielded in the G20 leaders' summit to be held in Hangzhou in September, will help to send the world a message of confidence and inject vitality to the growth of global economy.

China and the U.S., as the top two largest economies, are indispensable in this regard, he said, calling for close cooperation between the two countries to promote the G20 to play an effective role in global economic governance.

Rice said her visit aims to pave the way for U.S. President Barack Obama's participation in the G20 summit and his meeting with President Xi Jinping.

She said, just as President Obama has noted there is no more consequential relationship than U.S.-China ties, and the U.S. welcomes a prosperous and stable China to play active role in international affairs.

The U.S.-China cooperation has yielded great progress in addressing global challenges such as climate change and Ebola, Rice said, adding that bilateral cooperation has reached an unprecedented level.

Washington hopes to enhance mutual understanding and deepen cooperation with China in bilateral areas such as military-to-military as well as in regional and international issues such as peacekeeping, Rice said.

The U.S. hopes that the two sides could properly manage, control and solve their differences, she added.

The U.S. is willing to work together with China and ensure the leaders' meeting in Hangzhou a success and the G20 summit a success, Rice said.

 

[ahojunk]

The big 2 are looking after their own interests. Obama is thinking about his legacy.
When big countries reach an agreement, small countries would "be sacrificed if required".
Vietnam, Philippines, are you listening?

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Obama hopes for steady ties with Beijing in long run
2016-07-28 08:37 | China Daily | Editor: Wang Fan

Despite recent tensions in the South China Sea, Washington has made it clear to Beijing that President Barack Obama wants a stable transfer to the next U.S. leader of the progress made on ties with Beijing during his eight years in office.

U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice brought the message during her latest visit, a source with the Foreign Ministry told China Daily on Wednesday.

"Rice spent roughly 70 percent of her time in meetings here discussing cooperation, and only 30 percent on other issues," said the source, who requested anonymity.

Rice was in China from Sunday to Wednesday, mainly to prepare for Obama's attendance at the G20 Leaders' Summit in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, in September. She met with President Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials, including State Councilor Yang Jiechi.

The visit came amid tensions in the South China Sea after Beijing rejected a July 12 arbitration ruling in a case unilaterally brought by the Philippines over maritime disputes with China.

"Both sides agreed that we won't let disputes define the relations," the source said.

News releases issued by both sides afterward focused on bilateral cooperation, without directly mentioning the South China Sea issue.

However, the source said the two sides did discuss issues including the South China Sea and the advanced missile defense system that the United States and the Republic of Korea decided to deploy in the ROK, a move that has drawn strong opposition from China and Russia.

"We made our stances clear that the U.S. should not cite the tribunal ruling on the South China Sea issue and that inappropriate handling of the THAAD anti-missile system will overshadow China-U.S. relations," he said.

Rice spent a long time discussing anti-terrorism cooperation in meetings with Chinese officials, and she also touched on many other topics, including a bilateral investment treaty and military cooperation, he added.

"She also said that President Obama is glad to see a prosperous China, which is in the interests of the U.S., and that Washington is willing to work with Beijing to ensure a successful G20 summit," the source said.

Liu Youfa, former vice-president of the China Institute of International Studies, said, "Rice's remarks sent a signal to some Asian countries that the U.S.-China relations are not only about the South China Sea.

"It is also a warning that these countries' plan to take advantage of conflicts between the U.S. and China to seek their interests is unsustainable and shortsighted."

Jin Canrong, dean of the School of International Studies with Renmin University of China, said that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry took a similar low-profile stance on Monday while meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting.

"Washington has noticed the anger in China against the U.S. on the South China Sea issue, not only from the government but also the ordinary people. They know that is not good for U.S. interests."

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

The big 2 are looking after their own interests. Obama is thinking about his legacy.
When big countries reach an agreement, small countries would "be sacrificed if required".
Vietnam, Philippines, are you listening?

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Obama hopes for steady ties with Beijing in long run
2016-07-28 08:37 | China Daily | Editor: Wang Fan

Despite recent tensions in the South China Sea, Washington has made it clear to Beijing that President Barack Obama wants a stable transfer to the next U.S. leader of the progress made on ties with Beijing during his eight years in office.

U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice brought the message during her latest visit, a source with the Foreign Ministry told China Daily on Wednesday.

"Rice spent roughly 70 percent of her time in meetings here discussing cooperation, and only 30 percent on other issues," said the source, who requested anonymity.

Rice was in China from Sunday to Wednesday, mainly to prepare for Obama's attendance at the G20 Leaders' Summit in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, in September. She met with President Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials, including State Councilor Yang Jiechi.

The visit came amid tensions in the South China Sea after Beijing rejected a July 12 arbitration ruling in a case unilaterally brought by the Philippines over maritime disputes with China.

"Both sides agreed that we won't let disputes define the relations," the source said.

News releases issued by both sides afterward focused on bilateral cooperation, without directly mentioning the South China Sea issue.

However, the source said the two sides did discuss issues including the South China Sea and the advanced missile defense system that the United States and the Republic of Korea decided to deploy in the ROK, a move that has drawn strong opposition from China and Russia.

"We made our stances clear that the U.S. should not cite the tribunal ruling on the South China Sea issue and that inappropriate handling of the THAAD anti-missile system will overshadow China-U.S. relations," he said.

Rice spent a long time discussing anti-terrorism cooperation in meetings with Chinese officials, and she also touched on many other topics, including a bilateral investment treaty and military cooperation, he added.

"She also said that President Obama is glad to see a prosperous China, which is in the interests of the U.S., and that Washington is willing to work with Beijing to ensure a successful G20 summit," the source said.

Liu Youfa, former vice-president of the China Institute of International Studies, said, "Rice's remarks sent a signal to some Asian countries that the U.S.-China relations are not only about the South China Sea.

"It is also a warning that these countries' plan to take advantage of conflicts between the U.S. and China to seek their interests is unsustainable and shortsighted."

Jin Canrong, dean of the School of International Studies with Renmin University of China, said that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry took a similar low-profile stance on Monday while meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting.

"Washington has noticed the anger in China against the U.S. on the South China Sea issue, not only from the government but also the ordinary people. They know that is not good for U.S. interests."

The he must stop his pivotting...useless and wasteful effort.

I, for one, am for cooperative and constructive relationship between the two great powers.

Prs. Xi has extended his hand of friendship to the americans.

A healthy and strong american market is good thing for China and the other way round.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

The he must stop his pivotting...useless and wasteful effort.

I, for one, am for cooperative and constructive relationship between the two great powers.

Prs. Xi has extended his hand of friendship to the americans.

A healthy and strong american market is good thing for China and the other way round.

You can't just as someone to stop of what he's doing unless you have something in exchange either something he like or he fear.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

You can't just as someone to stop of what he's doing unless you have something in exchange either something he like or he fear.

I understand you, young brother.

I just do not wish to see the coming conflict. Only chaos and destruction.

Trouble makers should realise that their day under the sun is over.

They can even join the Community of Prosperity. But their hearts must change first.

I know, I sound naive and foolish. I know.

Sometimes, I fear that the only path might be the one you suggest.

Indeed, the moment of great choice is nearing.

It just troubles me, as a Taoist. Thats all.

 

[ahojunk]

The two big boys are getting along with one another.

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US warship visit ‘eases tensions’
(Global Times) 08:45, August 10, 2016

Chinese experts said the first visit on Monday by a US warship to China since the arbitration court ruled on the South China Sea issue is a sign of easing Sino-US relations.

The missile destroyer USS Benfold held signals exercises with the Chinese Navy after arriving in a port in Qingdao, East China's Shandong Province, and the Chinese side held a reception on the ship, according to the Associated Press.

"This port visit is a tremendous opportunity to build relationships between sailors based on shared interests and perspectives," Benfold commander Justin Harts said in a statement released on the US Navy's official website Sunday.

The visit, which comes on the heels of China's participation in the Rim of the Pacific 2016 maritime exercises, is a sign the two countries are willing to control disparities and actively push the relationship between navies forward, Zhang Junshe, a researcher at the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Naval Military Studies Research Institute, told the Global Times on Monday.

The AP report said Harts refused to comment on the disputes in the South China Sea.

Having military exchanges with China also benefits the US, that's why it continues conducting such activities despite calls in the US to punish China for its rejection of the South China Sea ruling, Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Monday.

China rejected last month's ruling on the South China Sea by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague and refused to take part in the arbitration. It has strongly criticized US involvement in the case.

Wu said that China develops its military to safeguard its sovereignty and interests, while the US wants to contain China with help from its allies, but the two sides need to maintain relatively stable relations to avoid accidental military conflicts.

Liu Feng, an expert on Chinese maritime issues, told the Global Times both China and the US have strengths on the South China Sea issue - China is geographically closer to the region and enjoys greater economic influence, while the US has a political, military and diplomatic edge.

Chinese and American troops and officials will visit the Benfold, conduct professional exchanges and participate in sports activities, an insider told the Global Times on Tuesday, adding that the two sides will hold joint exercises, including maritime search and rescue drills.

 

[ahojunk]

China, US officials downplay anti-trade rhetoric
(Xinhua) 11:07, August 12, 2016

Against the backdrop of rising anti-trade sentiment around the world, many government officials and businessmen from both China and the US still believed that trade and investment could benefit people from both countries, and called for further understanding and interaction between the two countries.

"If you address the focus of anti-trade, you show them ways how trade is good, positive and productive, and creates ... higher paying jobs, creates more opportunities, enables people to be innovative," Michael Stack, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, told Xinhua, at an event held by China General Chamber of Commerce-USA.

Stack described the presidential campaign rhetoric about China as "sensational."
China and the US do have different views in some areas, but both countries can continue communication to clarify the differences and find common ground for cooperation, he said.

As long as the China-US relationship is fair and benefiting both countries, it's a strong relationship both sides can keep working on, said Stack.

Zhang Qiyue, Chinese consul general in New York, also called on both countries to understand and interact more with each other. A strong and healthy relationship can not only benefit people from both countries, but also contributes stability and development to the world, said Zhang at the event.

Protectionism in the United States is rising, especially in the presidential election year, Xu Chen, president of the Bank of China USA, told Xinhua. But he emphasized that presidential nominees' actions were worth more attention than their rhetoric.

In regard to the rising anti-trade sentiment, Xu said that globalization boosted economy around the world, but did leave some people behind. He suggested improving social safety net to help those affected by the globalization.

With China's economic restructuring going forward, more and more Chinese companies showed great enthusiasm in investing in the United States.

Data from the US Commerce Department showed that Chinese investment was the fastest-growing source of foreign direct investment in the United States in 2014. Chinese investment in the US not only created jobs for local economy but also contributed millions of reinvestment to the US market.

In 2013, US affiliates of Chinese-owned firms employed over 37,000 US workers, and invested 449 million US dollars in research and development, said the Commerce Department.

Despite rising Chinese investment in the US, Chinese companies are still facing some obstacles, such as frequent national security reviews by the US, complicated and uncoordinated policies by US federal government departments, said Xu.

Xu called on companies and government agencies from China and the US to communicate more and build trust to clear these hurdles.

 

[ahojunk]

There is no twist, the two big guys are constantly talking with each other at various levels.
Nations don't have permanent allies, they have permanent interests; their interests.

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U.S. destroyer visit latest twist in China-U.S. military ties
By: The Associated Press, August 9, 2016 (Photo Credit: Borg Wong/AP)

U.S. Navy sailors stand on deck as the guided missile destroyer USS Benfold arrives in port in Qingdao in eastern China's Shandong Province, Aug. 8, 2016. Photo Credit: Borg Wong/AP


QINGDAO, China — The visit of the U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer USS Benfold to the northern Chinese port of Qingdao this week is the latest development in a long-term effort to build trust between the countries' militaries amid tensions and a rivalry for dominance in Asia.

Though China resents the highly visible presence of the U.S. armed forces in Asia, especially the South China Sea, it has gradually overcome its reluctance and shown a willingness to engage that the sides hope will help avoid conflicts.

Below is a look at the Benfold's visit and some of the steps the sides have taken to build their relationship:


WHAT'S THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE VISIT?

The Benfold's visit is the first to China by an American warship since Beijing responded furiously to a Hague-based international arbitration tribunal's ruling that its expansive South China Sea maritime claims had no basis in law. The fact the visit went ahead appears to show that Beijing now values the military-to-military relationship too much to allow it to be derailed by other events as was once the case. Qingdao is the base of China's northern fleet and is thus less sensitive than ports to the south closer to hotspots, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.


HOW HAVE THE SIDES RESPONDED TO THE ARBITRATION RULING?

China was incensed by the ruling and declared it null and void. It renewed its commitment to defend its sovereignty claims and continue work on man-made islands in the Spratly island group that have been heavily criticized by the U.S. and others as adding to regional tensions. Beijing has also launched what it says will be regular aerial patrols over the South China Sea and says it will consider whether to declare an air defense identification zone over all or part of the water body. The U.S. has called on China to respect the ruling, but has not staged another freedom of navigation mission in which its ships sail near China's artificial islands, which draw warnings and rebukes from Beijing.


WHAT HAVE THE SIDES DONE TO BUILD TRUST?

Apart from exchanging visits, China and the U.S. have sought to reach agreements on the rules of the road and work with each other on non-combat oriented training missions. At a multilateral forum in Qingdao in 2014, the two navies agreed to a Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea that seems to have allowed them to avoid confrontations. Last year, they added a similar agreement on aerial encounters between their military pilots that calls for, among other things, maintaining a secure distance, communicating clearly and avoiding rude body language. This year, China also took part in the world's largest maritime drills, known as RimPac, hosted by the U.S. every two years near Hawaii.


WHAT'S THE OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE?

China says it wants to turn a page on the arbitration ruling through bilateral talks with other claimants, although the U.S., Philippines and others resist that. The man-made islands will continue to be a source of tension, while the U.S. presence in the region will continue to grow. At the same time, China is narrowing the still-considerable gap with the U.S. Navy, adding to its fleet of high-tech destroyers similar to the Benfold and building homemade aircraft carriers to join the single, heavily refurbished Ukrainian one it has now. That will make it even more crucial that the sides build trust and relationships to help overcome future problems.

Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

 

[ahojunk]

The 2 big boys will avoid each other, they won't fight.

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Chinese and U.S. militaries must avoid crisis
2016-08-26 10:38 | China Daily | Editor: Feng Shuang

Missile frigate Yuncheng launches an anti-ship missile during a military exercise in the water area near South China's Hainan Island and Xisha islands, July 8, 2016. (Photo/Xinhua)


News of the Sino-Russian joint exercise, Joint-Sea 2016, in the South China Sea in September is apparently irritating to the Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet Admiral Scott Swift, who, despite visiting China in early August, described the joint drill as an action "not increasing the stability within the region" but "could have been conducted" in other places.

Russia's involvement in the South China Sea is not something the United States is happy about. A China-Russia exercise could easily dwarf the joint exercise of the U.S. and the Philippines. It will also show China is not standing alone after the ruling of the arbitral tribunal. It also contrasts with the U.S.' failed bid to call on Japan, Australia and India to join its patrols in the South China Sea.

China has held joint exercises with both Russia and the U.S., but those exercises were fundamentally different in purpose. The Sino-Russian exercise this September reflects the strategic partnership between the two nations which is not, but next only to, an alliance. Both countries have criticized the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system in the Republic of Korea. They believe the move would destabilize the strategic equilibrium on the Korean Peninsula and damage China's and Russia's strategic security. Recent years also found the drills extended to previously uncharted waters in the Mediterranean and the Sea of Japan. The scenarios became increasingly sophisticated and were not confined to tactical level. Last May the two countries also held a joint computer-assisted anti-missile drill.

This is in sharp contrast to the subdued military exercises between China and the U.S. which are restricted to "non-sensitive" humanitarian areas such as humanitarian aid and disaster relief, and anti-piracy and rescue missions at sea. Both sides have made painstaking efforts to explore new areas, but there is a glass ceiling for further cooperation. Since 2000 the U.S. Congress has forbidden exchanges between the U.S. military and China's People's Liberation Army in 12 operational areas because the PLA could learn too much from such exchanges and "create a national security risk".

If the greatest challenge to China-U.S. relationship is trust, then the top priority for the two militaries is crisis management. Many accidents or near accidents have occurred, such as the Chinese and U.S. aircraft collision in 2001, the standoff between USNS Impeccable and USS Cowpens on one side and Chinese ships on the other in 2009 and 2013, and the deadly close encounter between a Chinese J-11B fighter jet with a USN P-8 in 2014. The accidents or near accidents occurred in China's exclusive economic zones. But given the PLA's increasing involvement overseas, the possibility of unplanned meeting between Chinese and the U.S. military vessels or aircraft has increased.

That is why confidence building measures such as Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea and the Rules of Behavior for Safety of Maritime and Air Encounter between China and the U.S. are important. CUES, for example, provides a set of communication and operational procedures to avoid a ship getting too close to any vessels in formation; avoid aiming guns, missiles, and fire control radars in the direction of vessels or aircraft encountered. They can help avoid miscalculations and misjudgments.

Can China and the U.S. conduct joint exercises on CUES and Rule of Behavior in the South China Sea? The Chinese and U.S. navies practiced CUES during two Rim of the Pacific Exercises in the waters off Hawaii. But it is the waters of the South China Sea that is most volatile. And China is more determined to safeguard its sovereignty after the arbitral ruling that Beijing rejected.

The U.S. has vowed to continue flying and sailing in the South China Sea in the name of "freedom of navigation". But despite China and the U.S. being at loggerheads, it is in the interest of both countries to avoid accidents, let alone a conflict, in the future. A manageable relationship between the two giants is also an assurance for littoral states in the region, because "the grass will suffer, if the elephants fight".

The author Zhou Bo is an honorary fellow at the Center on China-American Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science.

 

[ahojunk]

Could US-China Joint Coast Guard Operation Mean an Improvement in Relations?
27.08.2016

The US Coast Guard has confirmed that it conducted joint operations with China in the Pacific Ocean this summer, as a part of annual patrols preventing illegal fishing. A US Coast Guard spokesman told Japanese media that the USCG Mellon "rendezvoused and conducted a professional exchange," with two ships from the Chinese Coast Guard.

US Coast Guard District 17 spokesman Lt. Brian Dykens said, "The exchange focused on professional goodwill between coast guards." He remarked that the exchange was part of a shiprider agreement in which US Coast Guard vessels work with two ships from the same Chinese branch of maritime service. Afterwards, the Mellon resumed its scheduled duties before returning to its homeport in Seattle.

China’s Xinhua News Agency quoted a coast guard official earlier this week, saying "cooperation between the two countries’ coast guards has deepened through personnel exchanges and joint operations." It was also reported that China plans to deepen their relationship with the US Coast Guard and expand its patrols in the northern part of the Pacific Ocean.

Relations between China and the US have been strained over issues with the contested East China and South China Seas. Beijing was dissatisfied with the international arbitration court at the Hague when it ruled in July that China has no historical claim to the South China Sea. China called the ruling "waste paper."

J. Berkshire Miller, an international affairs fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations based in Tokyo, said that the joint operations were good start to the two nations mending fences, but that more cooperation is required to soothe tensions.

Miller suggested that the operations were important, "considering the key role that China’s coast guard is playing, and indeed contributing to, with regard to regional maritime tensions. That said, it is important not to place too much emphasis on the operation. This represents baseline cooperation and is a low-hanging fruit."

The analyst offers that genuine reconciliation would require more effort on China’s part. "In the East China Sea, for example, Beijing should work earnestly with Tokyo to follow through on commitments to implement crisis avoidance mechanisms surrounding the Senkaku Islands…Unfortunately, it seems that China continues to emphasize coercive actions rather than a more cooperative tact," he said.

This summer’s operations were conducted in partnership with northern Pacific nations, "to detect and deter illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing activity, including large-scale pelagic drift net fishing on the high seas," according to the US Coast Guard. Regional partners include Canada, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia.

Dykens said that the partnership has so far resulted in the seizure and removal of vessels with Chinese flags engaging in illegal high seas drift-net fishing.