Götterdämmerung
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I tend to disagree. techs today are not in the old dimension of that catch up, knowledge spreads much faster than old times, tech exchange through trade, coop, etc, and internet brings up everything.
I would say 5 years is the right meter for a race up. in the past people thought China need 20 years for a stealth jet made close to F22, yet J20 clearly mocks that "underestimate".
He explained to me why it takes much longer time to master the art of building large passenger airplanes. There are a lot of things that cannot be solved simply by using super computers but by experience and trial & error, even at Airbus. Changes and innovations are progressing in baby steps, fuel efficiency and economy are absolutely crucial to be successful in commercial air transports, things that are secondary in fighter aircrafts. The wishes of airline companies are endless, but they want the most economic and safest option as well. Imagine building a lift in an airplane (A380 has it) and what sort of problems may arise. Every screw and bolt has to withstand all the turbulences and contortions without getting stuck at any time. The material must be light like feather, tough like steel, elastic like a rubber band and all that must be affordable at the same time. Oh, of course they want to have a fabulous design with a pleasant haptic that is easy to use and to clean. The company that produces this lift started 20 years ago to design and develop it.
Now, I'm just talking about a minor part of the plane.
The company producing the lift for the A380
Lift-Systeme | Verteidigung & Zivile Systeme | JENOPTIK AG
A380-Profiteur: Die Firma, die für Airbus den Himmelslift baut - SPIEGEL ONLINE