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China invades another Phil. Island.

America has a FULL mutual defence treaty with the Philippines. The Philippines is an ex-American colony and one of their strongest allies in the world.

And it's been that way for the past half century.

But everyone knows America isn't going to fight against another major power for the sake of their pawns. We saw this with the Philippines in 2012, Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, etc. In every single case, the American "ally" lost territory.

They are called pawns for a reason. In chess, pawns are the expendable ones. That's what they get for selling out their security to an American mutual defence treaty, now they all look at their maps and wonder why chunks of their nation are missing.
Yes, a sane post at last after 3 pages of India China mud slinging over English grammar and bwawawah .

I think you are completely right, at the end of the day the US is a super power and it will do what it takes to protect its interests and it will not fight on behalf of anyone unless it is in its interests to do so. It is stupid to leave the defence of your country so dependent in another. as Nilijohn pointed out a country of 100 million should have been able to protect its own interests better than this.
 
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A unilateral strike is antithetical to Chinese defense policy in modern years, which has largely been built upon strategic defense. We have to try to understand that the Chinese, themselves, are not really expansionist powers, given how they have conducted territorial settlments with their nieghbors in the past. As in regards to Korea and Japan --- disagreement is merely on maritime territoriality, which is slowly being de-fissured as we speak through careful mediation and through intergovernmental approach.

In fact the way China (Mainland) works to de-escalate with Tokyo is to utilize the conduit , which is the Chinese Province of Taiwan, as the channel to develop mutually comprehensive and inclusive mechanisms of joint fisheries cooperation, joint exploration, and joint development, joint patrol of the Senkakus/ Diaoyutais. This is an indirect recogntion on Tokyo's part of Chinese legitmacy of their claims, and Tokyo's willingness to collaborate, cooperate. Just this week, in fact , @Ind4Ever bhai, both Tokyo and Taipei (Beijing) convened on a new round of Bilateral Joint Fisheries agreements involving the Senkakus / Diaoyutais --- and relations between Greater China and Japan is slowly, gradually developed comprehensively and holistically.

Taiwan, Japan holding fishery talks in Taipei | Politics | FOCUS TAIWAN - CNA ENGLISH NEWS

I suppose , and i would deign to conjecture that as time progresses and as with China's tacit recognition of cooperative bilateralism, we will see more integration in political and inter-governmental mechanisms between Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul. As for China's development in the South China Seas , well Japan is a non-claimant and thus will not involve herself directly in that situation. However, we do hope and pray all relevant parties cooperate peacefully for a mutually inclusive and developmentally-inclined, peaceful approach to the situation. We hope to see a win-win scenario. And we know that China is instrumental to this liberational philosophy.

Well said, my friend! The overall strategic guideline of China's foreign diplomacy is "neighboring countries as the primary, major countries as the key, developing countries as the base, and multilateralism/cooperation as the active variable."

Hence, none of China's moves are against non-aggressive nations. None of them against Japan or Korea. In fact, as you have stated it before, China has sorted out all of its land disputes except one and in the process has given more land than it took. This is China's spirit, but, maritime boundaries will not be so easily forsaken because of their strategic importance.

Whatever we are doing, it is with the US encirclement in mind.

Political response? It is evident. The Philippine Election 2016 will see the rise of a pro-China presidential elect. What is clear is that this new President-elect will be greatly cooperative with Tokyo ( ;) ) and also with Beijing.

America we remain through VFA (visiting forces agreement), but they will be limited to that. I would even say that the Filipino Congress, which really has a split agenda (there are many anti-Americans in the Philippine Congress; as there are many pro-American). A rise of a pro-China president would consolidate the base and implement a more equidistant policy.

The grounding will be used as political capital, i think. Expect a massive reclamation project to begin within a week's time.

In fact, Japan's island development capability is exemplary in terms of efficiency and the quality of the structure. I guess excelling in what we are doing is an East Asian spirit.

They will do nothing. Absolutely nothing. :)

In fact, US is busy with signing peace deal with Iran and following Russia's red lines in Syria.

All the Best .I hopes our govt will do whatever within our limit to help Japan .

We are already doing. About to complete the CJK FTA. Our bilateral trade is somewhere around 300billion. Not a bad mutual help.

They have long ridden the assumption of American power and American hegemony, which is slowly starting to deteriorate at the rise of a resurgent China. In fact this is natural really, the responses, since for far too long the region was dpendent on the American guarantee. China's unequivocal rise as a global leader , and her overwhelming , comprehensive strategy to connect all markets through the One Belt One Road Paradigm in conjunction with the Maritime Silk Road Paradigm --- aims to supplant emphasis on the United States as global protector with China's own version of Soft Power and Cultural Paradigm of the Neo-Tianxia Praxis.

My friend, please come to Japan to teach and do research! Your conceptualizations are strong and reflective of China's 5000 years old diplomacy culture. Of course, do not anticipate a fake British created amalgamation called a country to understand the fine details of long term diplomacy.

Tianxia is an idea, from which I believe Kant borrowed a lot consciously or unconsciously, suggesting perpetual peace or universal harmony between all peoples. It is a 3000 year-old concept. Under the Zhou's conceptualization, all-under heaven (Tianxia) suggested:

1. an open network of world governments and sub-states
2.universal institutions
3. sub states are free in their internal affairs except political legitimacy (loose federalism)
4. institutionally-held balance
5. freedom to travel and work

That's the conceptualization during the Zhou.

No international condemnation,where is Obama,where is Japan or the other countries?

Japan is a neighbor and historical partner of China. Obama is busy elsewhere because of Turkey. Leave the guy alone.
The Chinese never had the national character of overzealous expansionism (thank G_d) ! The Chinese are, in general, a very peaceful people, centered in their trade, development, in peace. They have always been a reactionary people, and trusting, tho sensitive of past wrongs. Tho not closed to opening their hearts to past aggression. In fact, Japan is very lucky to have a neighbor like China , tho we have wronged them in the past, they are able to work with us, even accept us amongst them to trade, and to engage in culture exchanges, friendship exchanges.

I guess that's (being wronged but still keeping an open heart) is a historical legacy of China's centeredness. Hence, our historical brothers might at times be engaged in harmful acts but what to do with them? We cannot go Monroe Doctrine on them; this is not in our diplomatic gene. We will not interfere in our neighbors' internal business to ensure friendly regimes.

We are not the US -- we are the anti-thesis of the the US.

So, what remains for China is to promote regional cooperation through inclusive development.
 
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Yes, a sane post at last after 3 pages of India China mud slinging over English grammar and bwawawah .

I think you are completely right, at the end of the day the US is a super power and it will do what it takes to protect its interests and it will not fight on behalf of anyone unless it is in its interests to do so. It is stupid to leave the defence of your country so dependent in another. as Nilijohn pointed out a country of 100 million should have been able to protect its own interests better than this.

I think you guys in India have a saying (I've heard it quoted around this forum): "When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled".

The lesson is not to be the grass. Ukraine, Georgia, the Philippines, etc. they all tried to play power games with the expectation that America would come and save them. The result is big chunks of their maps are now missing.

Switzerland never got invaded during WW2. Why? Because they could fight for themselves, their entire country was armed to the teeth so nobody bothered them. They didn't try to play games with larger powers, they took care of themselves first.
 
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meh.we do not care those islands should belong to which country.
just let those countries circled the south china sea give the money together and share those oil and gas.
PH 10billions
viet 20billions
malaysia 30billions
china 100billions
then we can have a agreement.
 
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America has a FULL mutual defence treaty with the Philippines. The Philippines is an ex-American colony and one of their strongest allies in the world.

And it's been that way for the past half century.

But everyone knows America isn't going to fight against another major power for the sake of their pawns. We saw this with the Philippines in 2012, Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, etc. In every single case, the American "ally" lost territory.

They are called pawns for a reason. In chess, pawns are the expendable ones. That's what they get for selling out their security to an American mutual defence treaty, now they all look at their maps and wonder why chunks of their nation are missing.

Heck what US obligation toward Georgia and Ukraine as they were neither US ally
 
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I do believe freedom of navigation will continue just as before, business as usual. Different nations, China included, have overlapping claims of sovereign territory, that's it.

In this island incident (even if proven true, which I doubt) I don't see any other factor in Chinese intention other than purely signalling sovereign claim, nothing else. China will continue to adopt a pacifist approach towards this dispute, dialogue with Philippines is the key, does not intend to escalate tension unless being attacked.

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Thanks for the answer, but I want to ask what kind of freedom actually that China might impose...?

In this video it seems that China tries to make SCS area that he has as their territorial that needs to defend

 
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Well, some Filipinos think US is obligated to die for their land grabbing, and Vietnamese and Indians here are just dying to see China and US beat the sh1t out of each other. US should make its defense pack more specific to Filipinos so they will not have some unrealistic fantasy.

Well I'm reading some really strange posts from a few "Analysts" who I thought had at least some comprehension abilities. Lots of talk about "obligations" and "mutual defense treaties"

I think you and I are on the same page that the US sees incidents on any of the islands/atolls whose ownership is indeterminate as simple "squatting" (whether done by China, Vietnam, Philippines, etc). The US doesn't have any treaties that say we are supposed to defend some territory that is being squatted on. We don't recognize that and we don't recognize man-made islands either.
 
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How many times have you Indian threaten to disband the UN? While the lower caste of Indian threaten to leave, their elite is begging others to join P5. LOL :rofl::rofl:

Anytime something happens to their dislike, internet Indians threaten to leave the UN and urge others to do the same, setting up a new mechanism. Basically, the intrinsic inferiority complex sets in because they are not, and will never be, a P5.

The funnier thing is nobody takes Indian opinion seriously. Look at all major international frameworks, India is not particularly sought after.

Iran's P5+1.

Korea's SPT.

Syrian ceasefire talks.

India is irrelevant as it deserves. Yet they construct grand ideas in the form of an Aristotelian utopia, such as Indo-Pacific century.

Joke of the academia.
 
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Aint US the global sheriff who pokes his nose every where ?
US might poke its nose in every conflict out there but starting a war is another thing.

Regarding SCS; US would want to [bait] China.

Chinese should do there best to avoid the bait.

Russia took back crimea what did US do other than sanctions. Against China they dont stand a chance, any sanctions will backfire.
So?

US was not obligated to protect Georgia from Russian aggression. However, US have made it clear to Russia that Bashar Al-Assad has to step down in Syria, no ifs and buts about it.

Where US is willing to take a stand, it does it.
 
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Well I'm reading some really strange posts from a few "Analysts" who I thought had at least some comprehension abilities. Lots of talk about "obligations" and "mutual defense treaties"

I think you and I are on the same page that the US sees incidents on any of the islands/atolls whose ownership is indeterminate as simple "squatting" (whether done by China, Vietnam, Philippines, etc). The US doesn't have any treaties that say we are supposed to defend some territory that is being squatted on. We don't recognize that and we don't recognize man-made islands either.


US recent FONOPS in SCS may have given those countries a wrong impression that US is standing up against China on their behalf, so their unrealistic expectation raises as the situations gets tense. US should only act on its own national interest. Sure US has the obligation to protect its allies under the defense treaty, should China attacks Filipino mainland. But why in the world US soldiers should die for the reefs that Filipinos thought they should own, 20 years after the treaty was signed?
 
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No problems only fools think caste still exists. Also, only fools think caste is inherent to India only LOL....What happens when an Indian married a Chinese girl?
You practically invent caste system and fully incorporate into the Indian society, even to this day, it's still matter.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/02/economist-explains-9


Anytime something happens to their dislike, internet Indians threaten to leave the UN and urge others to do the same, setting up a new mechanism. Basically, the intrinsic inferiority complex sets in because they are not, and will never be, a P5.

The funnier thing is nobody takes Indian opinion seriously. Look at all major international frameworks, India is not particularly sought after.

Iran's P5+1.

Korea's SPT.

Syrian ceasefire talks.

India is irrelevant as it deserves. Yet they construct grand ideas in the form of an Aristotelian utopia, such as Indo-Pacific century.

Joke of the academia.
These Indians are like little whiny kids. If they don't get what they want, they cry and pound their head against the wall or floor to get attention. LOL :rofl:
 
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Filipinos still live in colonial era. They think that every one listens to colonial masters as them. In 21st century, all colonial masters including United States are very weak. They need to share the power with independent countries such as China.

Filipinos are so naive that they could dump a ship in a reef and claimed the reef theirs. This is 21st century with everything under the monitor of internet. Even if you have the support of all western media and they can help you brand China as an invader, it is useless because the internet has weaken the power of western propaganda media significantly. Just as Voice of America and CNN, before the internet, Chinese thought them as sacred media; in the internet era, most Chinese treat them as bitches of media.
 
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Philippines attempted to pull the same move they did in the 1990's by purposely running a ship aground. They think by doing that, they can lay actual claim to an island without being challenged. Maybe they should check the year first. It's not the same China without the ability to project naval power anymore.
 
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Most Filipinos do not have internet. But this doesn't mean that this is not an internet era.
 
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