China Has No Clear Strategy And It's OK

[Chinese-Dragon]

Um, because the Philippines decided not to invoke the provisions of our mutual defence treaty over the issue, but something tells me, you don't really care about the facts of much of anything discussed here.

Yet America didn't even sanction China for seizing territory from their mutual defense treaty ally in 2012? Why do you think that is?

Yes, that is the real reason for the Asian arms race caused by China's actions...because China's neighbours in the region are terrified that poor China will be "framed" into going to war.

We aren't firing the first shot.

Why should we, when we are adding the most to our economy (over a trillion a year) compared to anyone else in the world? We are adding an entire India every 2 years.

It serves our purposes to wait. Our adversaries however cannot wait, they have to make the first move before our economy becomes too large to handle.

For example, right now we have an array of DF-21D and DF-26 carrier killer ballistic missiles. Wait a few years and they will start getting armed with our latest HGV warheads (which we have currently tested almost a dozen times). Time passing serves our interests the most.

Wait 5-10 years and it will be too late, the South China Sea will be entirely Chinese and our economy and military will be in the perfect position to repel any kind of attack. So for our adversaries it's NOW or never, waiting just makes us stronger.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

Yes, that is the real reason for the Asian arms race caused by China's actions...because China's neighbours int he region are terrified that poor China will be "framed" into going to war.

That's ludicrous false accusation

 

[Genesis]

No, just a statement of fact. You don't have to like it and you certainly don't have to like America, which is apparent, but that will not change the fact of what I said. If China's bluster in the SCS, for example, leads to China and say, the Philippines, to blunder into armed conflict, China will be cutting it's own throat. The countries of the region will turn against China in a New York second. China's trading partners, like the United States, will be partners no more. I don't care if you don't want to hear that and want to turn it into a, "But what about what America has done!" argument. It won't change the fact that what I am saying is absolutely true.

@Genesis , this is in answer to your post as well.

I don't even know what to say to this. This is the Trump argument of it's going to be this way because I said so.

I too don't care what America has done, China can't do what America can do, hence what Americans did is irrelevant.

Why is it Americans are all facts, but everyone else isn't. You are bring the argument that China can lose the tangible progress we made because you want it to be so, but we are the ones without facts.

If this is going to be your argument, I can say your entire government from the president to the guy that sweeps the street are cowards, as well as the voters, because it's clear as day that China is challenging your place in the sun. Since you can so easily turn us into dust. This is the only logical conclusion.

 

[Desertfalcon]

Yet America didn't even sanction China from seizing territory from their mutual defense treaty ally? Why do you think that is?

I guess you didn't understand the first time so I will state it again' because it was up to the Philippines to invoke any provisions from that treaty concerning her territory or ask for any sanctions, NOT the United States. I'm sorry if such a simple answer is just too complicated for you to understand but I can't put it anymore plainly.

I don't even know what to say to this. This is the Trump argument of it's going to be this way because I said so.

No, it's just the reality of the way it is. I'm not saying that out of emotion. It's just the cold, hard, reality of what will happen.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I guess you didn't understand the first time so I will state it again' because it was up to the Philippines to invoke any provisions from that treaty concerning her territory of ask for any sanctions, NOT the United States. I'm sorry if such a simple answer is just to complicated for you to understand but I can't put it anymore plainly.

So China seizing territory from America's mutual defense treaty allies is fine, not even worthy of sanctions, as long as they are OK with it?

(And no, the Philippines is most definitely NOT happy with the loss of Scarborough shoal. Obviously not.)

The reason America does not sanction China is because they will get hurt just as much as we will. Otherwise they would have done it already.

The reason America does not start a nuclear war with China or Russia is because they will die as well.

Why do you think China is ignoring America's red lines to stop building and militarizing the South China Sea?

The good news for you is that Trump is likely to be the next American President. And when he says "Stop building and militarizing in the South China Sea... OR ELSE" - he will actually have to back it up. Trump doesn't back down, it's not in his nature. So we'll finally get to see what the "Or else..." means.

 

[Desertfalcon]

So China seizing territory from America's mutual defense treaty allies is fine, not even worthy of sanctions, as long as they are OK with it?

This is apparently a nearly impossible concept for you to grasp, but....yes, America can't invoke a mutual defence treaty for the Philippines, unilaterally. That is up to them. Perhaps you should ask them. I'm really not sure why such an elementary concept seems to allude you. You seem to have a fairly good command of English, and yet...

 

[Genesis]

No, it's just the reality of the way it is. I'm not saying that out of emotion. It's just the cold, hard, reality of what will happen.

lol, I can't win against an argument that is just "cold, hard, reality."

Just out of ignorant curiosity, what exactly do you think will happen if you cut off trade with China? Would you just look for a trade partner else where and leave us in the cold?

 

[Desertfalcon]

Just out of ignorant curiosity, what exactly do you think will happen if you cut off trade with China? Would you just look for a trade partner else where and leave us in the cold?

In a heartbeat, as the saying goes. America was about the wealthiest country in the world and a superpower before we had any trade with China, and we will remain so if it ends. Lots of other developing countries in the world to do business with.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

This is apparently a nearly impossible concept for you to grasp, but....yes, America can't invoke a mutual defence treaty for the Philippines. That is up to them. Perhaps you should ask them. I'm really not sure why such an elementary concept seems to allude you. You seem to have a fairly good command of English, and yet...

Your argument is disingenuous here.

In your first post you were pushing some doomsday scenario IF China goes too far in the South China Sea.

Yet China already went too far, we forcibly seized territory from an American mutual defense treaty ally (the Philippines), and America didn't even sanction us.

So if America didn't sanction us over something that serious, tell me how do you think that threat holds any water now?

America doesn't sanction us because it will hurt them too. That's it. Otherwise they would have done it already.

You'll have to wait for Trump to become President before such an economically suicidal proposition will actually be invoked (and/or a direct war is started), and to be fair that could be as soon as Trump 2016.

 

[Desertfalcon]

Your argument is disingenuous here.

Ya, I can’t help you buddy. I've explained it three different times and you are just beating a dead horse. I can't help it if the concept is just too complicated for you to get. You are just desperate to try and invent an issue where there just isn’t' one.

 

[Genesis]

In a heartbeat, as the saying goes. America was about the wealthiest country in the world and a superpower before we had any trade with China, and we will remain so if it ends. Lots of other developing countries in the world to do business with.

why did you do business with us? Or why continue up to this point. Why not help India, Philippines, any country in Latin America or ASEAN or Africa before we reached this point?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

In a heartbeat, as the saying goes.

Then do it.

If China believed that America really would cut off trade completely (and cause significant amounts of damage to both these economies) then that would probably be the biggest ever deterrent to China, maybe more so than nuclear weapons.

The problem is that nobody in the world believes that America will do that, since it will hurt them just as much. Hell they won't even sanction China for Scarborough shoal, so they will use the nuclear option for something less serious than that? Sorry the logic does not hold.

When you draw a red line you need to back it up, or it won't be taken seriously. We don't believe America's red lines, that's why China's buildup and militarization of the South China Sea continues unabated.

 

[Desertfalcon]

why did you do business with us?

Because after the reforms of Deng Xiaoping, China became a reliable trading partner and a country we could do business with. We still can, but Chinese actions in places like the SCS have definitely strained those relations. America still very much wants to maintain good relations with China. My only point is that China needs to understand that if she does blunder into a war with our allies, with counties we have long-standing defence agreements with, then all bets are off.

If China believed that America really would cut off trade completely (and cause significant amounts of damage to both these economies) then that would probably be the biggest ever deterrent to China, maybe more so than nuclear weapons.

The problem is that nobody in the world believes that America will do that

And that is exactly what makes the situation in the SCS so very, very, dangerous, i.e., that China or at least, many Chinese such as yourself, so completely and totally misread America's resolve.

 

[Genesis]

Because after the reforms of Deng Xiaoping, China became a reliable trading partner and a country we could do business with. We still can, but Chinese actions in places like the SCS have definitely strained those relations. America still very much wants to maintain good relations with China. My only point is that China needs to understand that if she does blunder into a war with our allies, with counties we have long-standing defence agreements with, then all bets are off.

So all the cyber attack allegations, human rights, territorial disputes, ip violations, stealing all the jobs away from America, creating competing organizations like AIIB, selling nuclear reactors, selling drones, weapons, and I can think of at least 100 other things, we are still very much on good footing?

Even assuming that we are on good footing, do you not like the places I mentioned better at this point? Why continue to prop up a regime that at least you don't like as much? Especially considering Philippines, Thailand, a few African nations like Egypt and Middle East nations like Saudi are your allies and has to figure better. If nothing else India is a democracy and not authoritarian.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Because after the reforms of Deng Xiaoping, China became a reliable trading partner and a country we could do business with. We still can, but Chinese actions in places like the SCS have definitely strained those relations. America still very much wants to maintain good relations with China. My only point is that China needs to understand that if she does blunder into a war with our allies, with counties we have long-standing defence agreements with, then all bets are off.

That's the entire point.

China is gaining the most from peace. By far, nobody else in the world is close to adding a trillion to their economy every year.

So why should we rock the boat? We are not firing any shots, we are not launching cruise missiles or airstrikes on other countries.

However, the same is not true for our adversaries, whose position vis a vis China gets weaker as time goes by. They are the ones who need to make the first move before it is too late, before China becomes too strong to handle.

China won't fire the first shot, that is for certain. However, America's dear allies might fire a shot "by accident" and drag them into a war that they never wanted. So they might want to ease their finger off the trigger a little bit. Or not, depending on how they want it to play out.