China Has No Clear Strategy And It's OK

[Genesis]

Many have called Beijing's recent moves lacking a real strategy and it's counterproductive. Beijing may not have a real strategy yet, but it is not counterproductive. Those that called it counterproductive are the truly shortsighted men instead of the men they are calling shortsighted.

There is no clear way to establish influence in today's world, to do nothing is the truly counterproductive initiative, and adds nothing if not reinforces America's right to rule. Current Chinese power may not be as strong as ten years or even five years from now, but it's certainly enough to crush any of the supposed opposition we face now, be it politically, economically and militarily. Yet here we are.

What will happen in ten, twenty years that will have such a dramatic effect that a US retreat will be plausible? The answer is nothing, we will be where we are 15 years ago, except this time, decades would have passed doing nothing.

For as much as people like to remind of 1914 and 1939, it is the seven year war that should be referenced. 1914 and 1939 saw the German empire wanting the entire continental Europe, rather than Fredrick's limited goal of establishing overwhelming regional influence and having a real say on the continental table.

China isn't trying to take over America's global influence, at least not yet, and China is certainly not trying to take over America or even challenge the government of those of her allies.

Now to China's current moves, why stir the pot? Before 2007, China doesn't know what stands in front of our goal of regional influence, now it's as clear as day. As long as we know what the obstacles are, it's just a matter of overcoming them. America can certainly try to stop us, but we are comfortable with a competition, and if nothing else, we are in this conversation, which has never happened before this point.

To reference an event from Japan, China is like Tokugawa Ieyasu during the battle of Sekigahara, while America is like Mitsunari, there are forces all around us, but unlike Mitsunari who keep trying to appease those indecisive and incompetent generals, Tokugawa fired on Kobayakawa, who was his savior to force him into the battle.

Like Tokugawa, China may not have a clear view of what to expect with this firing of the gun, but what is for sure is the world will start to change. Even if the results are all negative, one overwhelming positive is now we have the ability to start changing for the better.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Our number 1 goal (both officially and unofficially) is economic development.

Everything else flows from that. Right now we are still in the development phase, but we are still strong enough that no country on Earth can mount a successful land invasion of China.

Every year that passes, our position improves. And it is going to keep improving for the foreseeable future.

Basically, the guys in Zhongnanhai know what they are doing. It's easy to second-guess their moves when we don't have access to all the classified information that they have.

 

[Genesis]

Our number 1 goal (both officially and unofficially) is economic development.

Everything else flows from that. Right now we are still in the development phase, but we are still strong enough that no country on Earth can mount a successful land invasion of China.

Every year that passes, our position improves. And it is going to keep improving for the foreseeable future.

Basically, the guys in Zhongnanhai know what they are doing. It's easy to second-guess their moves when we don't have access to all the classified information that they have.

Whether China knows what its doing isn't relevant, who in this world can say they know 100% what to do.

Before now, who can say they knew 100% all the US will do is do a few drive bys after a country directly challenges them, who can predict that the Philippines and the rest would act so strongly against us, who could have predicted that ASEAN couldn't unite on their issues and who could predict China could so easily meet our short term goals.

Now in 2016, everyone's stance on China's role in Asia is clear. Now it's just a matter of changing their opinion.

As always I maintain, politically solve Vietnam, and America, diplomatically solve Malaysia and Indonesia, economically solve Japan, and South Korea, while militarily solve the Philippines. I would mention India, but at 1,600 per capita, they would not do anything short of an attack on their home land.


Economically China will be fine. Anyone that says otherwise, obviously has no idea where China started from.

 

[Shotgunner51]

keep a low profile and dont think you are special and you deserve special privileges........if you followed the footsteps of japan and germany you will get your hineys kicked , you do not have enough nukes and there is a cap on your nukes imposed by russia and america.........when push comes to shove russia will side with the west.

Agree.

Financially China only devote a pacifist level of GDP (1.28% for FY2015) in defence, and only maintain a minimum level of thermonuclear stockpile (294 megatons as of 2009), all strategic only. In conventional forces, PLA is retrenching 300 thousands of personnel mostly in the Army from this year.

The primary focus is on economic development, as well as expanding financially rewarding trade-investment ties with every other nations in the world.

http://www.ycsg.yale.edu/assets/downloads/ICNND_Report-EliminatingNuclearThreats.pdf
Nuclear Disarmament China | NTI
China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence
2015年中国中央本级国防预算拟增长10.1%-中新网
World GDP Ranking 2015 | Data and Charts - knoema.com

 

[21stCentury]

Is this from a article op-ed? Regardless, I wouldn't say China doesn't have a clear strategy, but rather a long term comprehensive one at that.

 

[gambit]

??? What country is interested in doing a land invasion in China? .Taiwan??...Russia? ...Vietnam? ..India? ...Japan?

...and before you say the US...please explain what purpose it would serve of sending thousands of our tanks driving around in your countryside. You have some strategic mountain or something we have to put a flag on?

Yes, cool...US troops in Shanghai...and so what is the purpose again?

Just a way for him to talk tough for China. Too much video games and not enough serious reading on the subject. Although, we can excuse him for living in China where such information are top secret anyway.

What he does not understand is that an invasion is not a thing to even talk lightly about. In the old days, an invading army lived off the land and that often did not work out too well. Today, an invading army can live on its own provisions but that would require preparations to the scale of something like D-Day or Desert Storm.

Next, what would China done that would warrant the American military to willingly go to the other side of the world and occupy a foreign land ? One way is to act like Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Another is to attack US directly in some ways, and today, a cyber attack whose effects are American deaths would definitely qualify.

But the bottom line is this...If the US feels an invasion of mainland China is necessary, all restraints, including nuclear, will be off. The US can do it but the Chinese will not allow it -- with everything at their disposal.

 

[Desertfalcon]

Our number 1 goal (both officially and unofficially) is economic development.

From the perspective of those watching China's actions in the SCS, it would seem that China's number 1 goal, is to take all the progress she has made in the last many decades by opening up her economy and being a reliable trading partner with the West, Japan, etc., and throwing it all away in the name of Chinese nationalism and bravado. The second that one round is fired between China and any other country in the region, or against the United States or it's allies there, the Chinese can kiss goodbye, everything they have worked so hard for, since the great reforms of Deng Xiaoping. Madness...

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

From the perspective of those watching China's actions in the SCS, it would seem that China's number 1 goal, is to take all the progress she has made in the last many decades by opening up her economy and being a reliable trading partner with the West, Japan, etc., and throwing it all away in the name of Chinese nationalism and bravado. The second that one round is fired between China and any other country in the region, or against the United States or it's allies there, the Chinese can kiss goodbye, everything they have worked so hard for, since the great reforms of Deng Xiaoping. Madness...

Is that supposed to be a joke?

America is in a state of constant war, they invaded 3 countries in the past decade alone (Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya) and are bombing countless others, from Syria to Yemen to Pakistan.

Now China will throw away everything we worked for by starting a war? But it's OK for America to start countless wars and bombings across the planet right?

And no, we have no intention of starting a war. The only way a war will start is when another country attacks us first. Then we will have full rights to retaliate with overwhelming force, since we will be the defending side.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Just a way for him to talk tough for China. Too much video games and not enough serious reading on the subject. Although, we can excuse him for living in China where such information are top secret anyway.

What he does not understand is that an invasion is not a thing to even talk lightly about. In the old days, an invading army lived off the land and that often did not work out too well. Today, an invading army can live on its own provisions but that would require preparations to the scale of something like D-Day or Desert Storm.

Next, what would China done that would warrant the American military to willingly go to the other side of the world and occupy a foreign land ? One way is to act like Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Another is to attack US directly in some ways, and today, a cyber attack whose effects are American deaths would definitely qualify.

But the bottom line is this...If the US feels an invasion of mainland China is necessary, all restraints, including nuclear, will be off. The US can do it but the Chinese will not allow it -- with everything at their disposal.

Maybe this all boils down to lingering fear due to Japan's invasion and a feeling of military helplessness in not being able to take Taiwan back in the First Or Second Taiwan Strait crisis.

 

[Genesis]

From the perspective of those watching China's actions in the SCS, it would seem that China's number 1 goal, is to take all the progress she has made in the last many decades by opening up her economy and being a reliable trading partner with the West, Japan, etc., and throwing it all away in the name of Chinese nationalism and bravado.

America's refusal to let China have more power in IMF and other such organizations is well known. America made China agree to a host of conditions before letting China into WTO to keep China down. Didn't work out that way, but that's our initiative. America stopping our ships to Iran, sending carriers to intimidate us, bombing our embassy, and getting in the way of Taiwan and us, which is a internal conflict to all that knows the history.

These and more all happened long before we started the South China Sea episode. It's not out of nowhere that we want influence in our neighborhood and the world.

As to throwing it all away, China last year became America's biggest trade partner, surpassing Canada, China has been the biggest trade partner for Japan for a while, and China is Eu's close second biggest trade partner.

Unless I am very much mistaken, we started to build the islands in 2014. Either the US, EU, and Japan which started even earlier, has some super delayed reflexes, or your assumption are not based on facts.

The second that one round is fired between China and any other country in the region, or against the United States or it's allies there, the Chinese can kiss goodbye, everything they have worked so hard for, since the great reforms of Deng Xiaoping. Madness...

Why would a shoot be fired? The key is to stir the pot enough to see what's inside, not so much that we begin to spill onto the floor.

Hopefully, one day you would not make assumptions, but see what is actually happening. You say there is a possibility of firing a shot? Possibly. However, just like when US bombed our embassy and American jet was shoot down. As long as the countries involved don't want a war yet, these kind of incidents can be brushed aside.

While if there is to be a war, a Saudi business man can attack America and Iraq becomes the country that gets invaded.


If we are to stick to topic, China wants a position on the adult table, as all great powers eventually do, what's your suggestion? Wait till America dies of old age?

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

China has no clear strategy and It's ok, this is the way to keep enemies confuse but we need to have a clear counter strategy for the potential foes.

 

[Desertfalcon]

Is that supposed to be a joke?

No, just a statement of fact. You don't have to like it and you certainly don't have to like America, which is apparent, but that will not change the fact of what I said. If China's bluster in the SCS, for example, leads to China and say, the Philippines, to blunder into armed conflict, China will be cutting it's own throat. The countries of the region will turn against China in a New York second. China's trading partners, like the United States, will be partners no more. I don't care if you don't want to hear that and want to turn it into a, "But what about what America has done!" argument. It won't change the fact that what I am saying is absolutely true.

@Genesis , this is in answer to your post as well.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

No, just a statement of fact. You don't have to like it and you certainly don't have to like America, which is apparent, but that will not change the fact of what I said. If China's bluster in the SCS, for example, leads to China and say, the Philippines, to blunder into armed conflict, China will be cutting it's own throat. The countries of the region will turn against China in a New York second. China's trading partners, like the United States, will be partners no more. I don't care if you don't want to hear that and want to turn it into a, "But what about what America has done!" argument. It won't change the fact that what I am saying is absolutely true.

So how come China seized the Scarborough shoal from the Philippines in 2012 and the world didn't end?

You know America has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines right?

But instead of starting a war, America watched quietly as their treaty ally lost territory. Where is the war? Where are the sanctions? Can you tell me?

In any event, we won't be firing the first shot. We are the ones adding a trillion to our GDP every single year, we are the ones who benefit the most as time passes.

We are waiting for someone else to fire the first shot. Which they will have to do eventually, before China's economy grows too large to handle. Since a direct attack is literally the only possible thing that will stop China's momentum.

Our adversaries know that every year they wait, we add another trillion to our economy. Time is on our side, not theirs. Every year they fail to rack up the courage to strike, is another trillion under our belt.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

No, just a statement of fact. You don't have to like it and you certainly don't have to like America, which is apparent, but that will not change the fact of what I said. If China's bluster in the SCS, for example, leads to China and say, the Philippines, to blunder into armed conflict, China will be cutting it's own throat. The countries of the region will turn against China in a New York second. China's trading partners, like the United States, will be partners no more. I don't care if you don't want to hear that and want to turn it into a, "But what about what America has done!" argument. It won't change the fact that what I am saying is absolutely true.

@Genesis , this is in answer to your post as well.

Well that certainly can be done, try to fabricate an incident in SCS and we will know what will happen next, I would like to see the domino effect on China, on others SCS countries and as much as on US.

 

[Desertfalcon]

So how come China seized the Scarborough shoal from the Philippines in 2012 and the world didn't end?

Um, because the Philippines decided not to invoke the provisions of our mutual defence treaty over the issue, but something tells me, you don't really care about the facts of much of anything discussed here.

Well that certainly can be done, try to fabricate an incident in SCS and we will know what will happen next, I would like to see the domino effect on China, on others SCS countries and as much as on US.

Yes, that is the real reason for the Asian arms race caused by China's actions...because China's neighbours in the region are terrified that poor China will be "framed" into going to war.