China confirms takeover of Gwadar port: Report

[ahfatzia]

Erm, what rail link? Heck, there is not even a properly engineered all-season road link in existence.

My first post was based on the assumption of a rail link can be build through the Khunjerab Pass because the idea was kicking around by both governments for years. If it's possible then the Gwadar Port is a goldmine and the Pakistani economy will lifted overnight. If it's not then China will only loses what she already put in so far. while she's waiting for the outcome of the viability of the rail she can always find a different usages of the port.

My money is on the possibility of a rail because it's so important for China, the few central Asian countries and especially Pakistan.

BTW you seem to stuck on the old fashioned way- if it's so hard then is impossible.

 

[VCheng]

My first post was based on the assumption of a rail link can be build through the Khunjerab Pass because the idea was kicking around by both governments for years. If it's possible then the Gwadar Port is a goldmine and the Pakistani economy will lifted overnight. If it's not then China will only loses what she already put in so far. ................

I am not stuck in any old fashioned way, I just evaluate facts realistically. Leave the Khunjerab Pass alone, let's just consider a rail link from Rawalpindi to Gilgit for starters to have an idea of just how difficult and expensive a rail link over Khunjerab will be. Without such links, Gwadar is of limited use at best for China, and an alternative seaport for Pakistan only.

 

[ahfatzia]

I am not stuck in any old fashioned way, I just evaluate facts realistically. Leave the Khunjerab Pass alone, let's just consider a rail link from Rawalpindi to Gilgit for starters to have an idea of just how dificult and expensive a rail link over Khunjerab will be. Without such links, Gwadar is of limited use at best for China, and an alternative seaport for Pakistan only.

You're right if you're going by the difficulty of the terrains, but I'm looking at it from a risk and reward angle and it simply can not ignore by both countries, however difficult.

Nevertheless China can still make the port profitable even without the rail link because of her huge cargo volume and merchant fleet in which can only grow larger as years go by. It's like Warren Buffet style of investing but of course it won't come close if rail is possible.

 

[VCheng]

You're right if you're going by the difficulty of the terrains, but I'm looking at it from a risk and reward angle and it simply can not ignore by both countries, however difficult.

Nevertheless China can still make the port profitable even without the rail link because of her huge cargo volume and merchant fleet in which can only grow larger as years go by. It's like Warren Buffet style of investing but of course it won't come close if rail is possible.

Have you ever traveled the KKH up to Khunjerab? A rail line through there will be astronomically difficult and hugely expensive, without a doubt.

Even for the rising cargo volume, there is simply no need for ships to stop at Gwadar as an intermediate station given existing patterns of mercantile shipping.

 

[ahfatzia]

Have you ever traveled the KKH up to Khunjerab? A rail line through there will be astronomically difficult and hugely expensive, without a doubt.

Even for the rising cargo volume, there is simply no need for ships to stop at Gwadar as an intermediate station given existing patterns of mercantile shipping.

I'm an optimist and I believe man can do many thing where they seem impossible by some.

I never been in that part of the world however I did study some of the terrain when my friends took a motorcycle trip into China from Islamabad a few years back and someday I'll be with them the next trip, hopefully. Peace and prosperous.

 

[VCheng]

I'm an optimist and I believe man can do many thing where they seem impossible by some.

I never been in that part of the world however I did study some of the terrain when my friends took a motorcycle trip into China from Islamabad a few years back and someday I'll be with them the next trip, hopefully. Peace and prosperous.

Oh man can achieve wonders alright, I agree, but economics is economics.

 

[Developereo]

Oh man can achieve wonders alright, I agree, but economics is economics.

Gwadar's importance transcends economics: it has strategic value besides the trade route itself. It is within shouting distance of the US fleet in the Gulf; it is well placed in relation to India, including its activities in ChahBahar, etc.

Coming to economics, the equation is never static. Shale gas used to be economically prohibitive until recently, but no more. The Chinese are pragmatic, if nothing else, and there is a concept of investing in ventures which you expect will gain value over time, especially if the costs can be amortized over time and space. It would be unwise to state categorically that Gwadar will never be economically viable and, given China's deep pockets, their outlays are mere chump change.

My concern about Gwadar is not about its viability from an economic or strategic point, but the security situation in Pakistan. Roads can be built and rail links connected, but it's all only as good as the weakest link which, in Pakistan's case, is the security situation along the corridor.

 

[A1Kaid]

Port operations should have never been given to PSA, all well have to take risks in business.

 

[Nishan_101]

Better if GoP has paid $1.1 Billion Dollar to the Chinese in cash and take on the fulla uthority of gawadar Port along with making gawadar Port authority by utilizing the people from KPT as well as Port Qasim who have great experience in this field along with getting expertise from Germany, Japan or S.Korea for creating three mega Shipyards there along with one in the Karachi as well and upgrading the over all facility.

Although we don't have money but this $1.1 Billion Dollar can be recovered in 1 year of time.

 

[VCheng]

Gwadar's importance transcends economics: it has strategic value besides the trade route itself. It is within shouting distance of the US fleet in the Gulf; it is well placed in relation to India, including its activities in ChahBahar, etc.

Very few things transcend economics, primarily religion. One may fervently believe as an article of faith that Gwadar is supremely important, but where is the proof of its strategic value? What does its proximity have to do with the US fleet, unless China bases a considerable fleet presence there, and even then it would be doubtful in terms of its efficacy in countering US military capabilities in the region? What does "well-placed" mean in relation to Chahbahar? The value of Chahbahar to India is in the rail link to Afghanistan being built, thus bypassing Pakistan. How does Gwadar affect that at all?

Coming to economics, the equation is never static. Shale gas used to be economically prohibitive until recently, but no more. The Chinese are pragmatic, if nothing else, and there is a concept of investing in ventures which you expect will gain value over time, especially if the costs can be amortized over time and space. It would be unwise to state categorically that Gwadar will never be economically viable and, given China's deep pockets, their outlays are mere chump change.

Your shale gas analogy does not apply here, given that it is a commodity subject to laws of supply and demand, and with prices driven down by technological advances of fracking. Yes, I agree that China has deep pockets and usually a long term view of things, but how does that help it defeat earthquakes, terrain, altitude and weather across the Hindu Kush mountains? China will look at the economics of investing even "chump change" of a few billion dollars in Gwadar's links very pragmatically and come to the same conclusions about their lack of viability. Its actions will speak louder than any words you and I might say here.

My concern about Gwadar is not about its viability from an economic or strategic point, but the security situation in Pakistan. Roads can be built and rail links connected, but it's all only as good as the weakest link which, in Pakistan's case, is the security situation along the corridor.

I would turn that contention around: It will be far easier, comparatively speaking, to ensure security in Baluchistan and elsewhere in Pakistan, difficult as it might appear, than to defeat logistical problems in ensuring commercially viable transportation links through Gwadar to western China across the Hindu Kush range, given that there are comparatively cheaper workarounds available.

For Gwadar, cold economics will prevail over fervent faith, most assuredly.

 

[Developereo]

Very few things transcend economics, primarily religion. One may fervently believe as an article of faith that Gwadar is supremely important, but where is the proof of its strategic value? What does its proximity have to do with the US fleet, unless China bases a considerable fleet presence there, and even then it would be doubtful in terms of its efficacy in countering US military capabilities in the region? What does "well-placed" mean in relation to Chahbahar? The value of Chahbahar to India is in the rail link to Afghanistan being built, thus bypassing Pakistan. How does Gwadar affect that at all?

Strategic national interests trump economics any day of the week: that's the difference between world powers and other countries. At the end of they day, just breaking even on Gwadar is good enough for China, and even that is a "nice to have", given its other advantages. Even a "loss leader" can be supported indefinitely if it provides other benefits.

Your analysis of Gwadar's strategic importance is facetiously naive. You know as well as I that's it's rarely about direct physical combat; there are all sorts of activities that a well-placed base can facilitate which have nothing to do with firing shots at the other guys. There's no need to spell everything out.

Your shale gas analogy does not apply here, given that it is a commodity subject to laws of supply and demand, and with prices driven down by technological advances of fracking. Yes, I agree that China has deep pockets and usually a long term view of things, but how does that help it defeat earthquakes, terrain, altitude and weather across the Hindu Kush mountains? China will look at the economics of investing even "chump change" of a few billion dollars in Gwadar's links very pragmatically and come to the same conclusions about their lack of viability. Its actions will speak louder than any words you and I might say here.

The whole of economics is about supply and demand. The analogy was meant to illustrate the fact that technology advances and what is economically unfeasible today can become feasible tomorrow. History is full of examples where previously unsurmountable physical barriers were tamed and commerce across them is an everyday occurrence.

I would turn that contention around: It will be far easier, comparatively speaking, to ensure security in Baluchistan and elsewhere in Pakistan, difficult as it might appear, than to defeat logistical problems in ensuring commercially viable transportation links through Gwadar to western China across the Hindu Kush range, given that there are comparatively cheaper workarounds available.

The Chinese are well aware of all the physical challenges, but have decided that the project is worth pursuing. Whether it's insurance, just in case, or they feel confident of its economic viability is known only to them and we'll find out in due time.

They are willing to put their money where their mouth is, and the Chinese are pragmatic if nothing else.

 

[VCheng]

................

They are willing to put their money where their mouth is, and the Chinese are pragmatic if nothing else.

Agreed.

Like I said before, China's actions will speak louder than any words you and I might say here. I will be happy to send you a case of your favorite libation if and when Gwadar is a success economically or strategically.

 

[Developereo]

I will be happy to send you a case of your favorite libation if and when Gwadar is a success economically or strategically.

How will we ever know the latter?

 

[VCheng]

How will we ever know the latter?

Actually, that is a very good question: Just how is Gwadar of strategic importance?

I can see how it represents a second port in addition to Karachi for Pakistan, and thus a good solution to meet the growing needs of the country, but I cannot see how it can be a valuable resource worth a large investment to China (or CAS/Russia) without good road/rail links - which are not going to be feasible for a long time yet, if ever, compared to alternatives, given the many insurmountable obstacles in their path, both geographical and non-geographical.

Gwadar has a better chance of being an economic success story for Pakistan, yes. Anything more is dubious.

Of course, I would be interested in your thoughts on the reasons for its perceived strategic importance for discussion here, Sir. I hope you indulge me.

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Edit:

stra·te·gic (str-tjk) also stra·te·gi·cal (-j-kl)
adj.
1. Of or relating to strategy.
2.
a. Important or essential in relation to a plan of action: a strategic withdrawal.
b. Essential to the effective conduct of war: strategic materials.
c. Highly important to an intended objective: The staff discussed strategic marketing factors.
3. Intended to destroy the military potential of an enemy: strategic bombing.

So exactly how is Gwadar "strategic"?

 

[regular]

Excellent! its best for both China and Pakistan to help each other and handing over the Gawadar port to China is the best step taken by Pakistan to enhance its economy......Cuz China is going to handle it excellently and both countries are going to benefit from its use.......