Capabilities of PAF Dassault MIRAGE-III/V.

[FuturePAF]

Welcome. The delta conundrum needs to be seen in the perspective of PAF's quest to acquire the M2Ks. We made 3 attempts and the best one was in the 90s when our friend MuradK was involved. Had it not been for Zardari sticking his dirty fingers along with the French Sarkozy we might have even acquired it. In the early 2000 as a sign of desperation we approached the French again for 59 units but the offer was withdrawn by them and we were pushed toward the really expensive Rafale which was beyond our means. I guess we were too far advanced in the JFT project to consider buying the whole M2K assembly line in one big deal which might have been cost prohibitive but have given us the French version of the JFT experience. The M53 were old and cost prohibitive but could we have negotiated for M88s on the M2ks and more importantly would the Ffrench have agreed? I dont know the answer to that. I do however think PAF contiues to look for 3 squadrons of Deltas/Multirole platforms.
A

If the PAF is looking for 3 Squadrons (~51 aircraft) of Delta, why not acquire the J-10CE? In all aspect, a superior aircraft then the Mirage 2000 (arguably equal to the Rafale), and the PAF could customize it as it has when every other Chinese platform it has acquired. When the WS-15 matures, it would theoretically allow the plane to super-cruise and be as efficient to operate, if not more so, then the Eurofighters the PAF was considering a while back, but at a fraction of the price.

BTW, If Pakistan acquires 3 squadrons of J-10CE, it should also add a clause into the purchase to be able to emergency lease with the option to buy a further 3 squadrons of J-10's. A wartime resupply option could ease the burden on the PAF to have as many fighters, if they have the knowledge they can be resupplied in a matter of days, with a fresh batch of J-10s.

Something akin to the wartime resupply in the 1973 mid east war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nickel_Grass

P.S. The planned purchase of 36 J-10B in 2006 was approximately $1.4 Billion or $39 million each. How much do you think the J-10CE in 2019 dollars would cost? The J-10 has a larger flight envelope then the JF-17 and is finally a mature design in the form of the J-10CE with AESA (although that fan art J-10D looked great ). 50 J-10CE would allow the PAF to break its dependence on the F-16, and for a relatively reasonable price.

Also with the added thrust planned on the WS-15 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_WS-15), it could allow the J-10 to carry 2 of a smaller version of the CX-1 Missile per aircraft, far out to sea, to defend against any possibly blockade in time of crisis.

something akin to the Brahmos NG
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-cc39f8933cc739c8167fa58b4d59e5e8.webp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-10#Pakistan

 

[Tamiyah]

If the PAF is looking for 3 Squadrons (~51 aircraft) of Delta, why not acquire the J-10CE? In all aspect, a superior aircraft then the Mirage 2000 (arguably equal to the Rafale), and the PAF could customize it as it has when every other Chinese platform it has acquired. When the WS-15 matures, it would theoretically allow the plane to super-cruise and be as efficient to operate, if not more so, then the Eurofighters the PAF was considering a while back, but at a fraction of the price.

BTW, If Pakistan acquires 3 squadrons of J-10CE, it should also add a clause into the purchase to be able to emergency lease with the option to buy a further 3 squadrons of J-10's. A wartime resupply option could ease the burden on the PAF to have as many fighters, if they have the knowledge they can be resupplied in a matter of days, with a fresh batch of J-10s.

Something akin to the wartime resupply in the 1973 mid east war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nickel_Grass

Do our economical conditions allow us?

 

[FuturePAF]

Do our economical conditions allow us?

We can spread out a purchase over the next 5-10 years, but we have to retire our Mirages soon and need to plan accordingly. We can start with a purchase of 2 squadron as originally planned during Musharraf's time, but the money will have to be found once the economy is straighten out.

The PAF should wait and see over the next 2-3 years, but let CAC and China know Pakistan is interested if the economy improves enough, so training can be started as soon as possible.

 

[Tamiyah]

We can spread out a purchase over the next 5-10 years, but we have to retire our Mirages soon and need to plan accordingly. We can start with a purchase of 2 squadron as originally planned during Musharraf's time, but the money will have to be found once the economy is straighten out.

The PAF should wait and see over the next 2-3 years, but let CAC and China know Pakistan is interested if the economy improves enough, so training can be started as soon as possible.

Yes. J10 is the techonology of present and mirage were of past.

 

[araz]

If the PAF is looking for 3 Squadrons (~51 aircraft) of Delta, why not acquire the J-10CE? In all aspect, a superior aircraft then the Mirage 2000 (arguably equal to the Rafale), and the PAF could customize it as it has when every other Chinese platform it has acquired. When the WS-15 matures, it would theoretically allow the plane to super-cruise and be as efficient to operate, if not more so, then the Eurofighters the PAF was considering a while back, but at a fraction of the price.

BTW, If Pakistan acquires 3 squadrons of J-10CE, it should also add a clause into the purchase to be able to emergency lease with the option to buy a further 3 squadrons of J-10's. A wartime resupply option could ease the burden on the PAF to have as many fighters, if they have the knowledge they can be resupplied in a matter of days, with a fresh batch of J-10s.

Something akin to the wartime resupply in the 1973 mid east war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nickel_Grass

P.S. The planned purchase of 36 J-10B in 2006 was approximately $1.4 Billion or $39 million each. How much do you think the J-10CE in 2019 dollars would cost? The J-10 has a larger flight envelope then the JF-17 and is finally a mature design in the form of the J-10CE with AESA (although that fan art J-10D looked great ). 50 J-10CE would allow the PAF to break its dependence on the F-16, and for a relatively reasonable price.

Also with the added thrust planned on the WS-15 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_WS-15), it could allow the J-10 to carry 2 of a smaller version of the CX-1 Missile per aircraft, far out to sea, to defend against any possibly blockade in time of crisis.

something akin to the Brahmos NG
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-cc39f8933cc739c8167fa58b4d59e5e8.webp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-10#Pakistan

Rumour has it the Chinese were demanding 60 million per piece. PAF wanted to pay 40 something per aircraft. So at the moment it is a question of who is more desperate, ie the seller or the buyer. If the option of 16s opens up(very unlikely but not impossible), the negotiations could take an interesting turn that is if PAF wants to go down that route. The problem from my perspective is still the fact that the J10c is a bit of an unknown quantity, as against a fully matured and battle proven platform in the 16/52s. This could work both ways as an unknown quantity has an advantage of its own. Let us see what transpires and with what engine and modifications if at all.
A

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

As it has come up again in the last few post---reader---if you ever be in a position to make a major major weapons system defense purchase---never stop it just for the reason of corruption.

Because once you stop it---it will be very difficult to get it again---.

Your enemy will get stronger---and you will be left behind eating dirt---.

10-15-20 years later you would be wishing that you had made that deal---.

Make the deal keeping in mind what it brings to the table---. Your major weapons procurement must give the enemy food for thought to come to the peace table---.

If an outrageous deal brings peace---then you have have already won---.

Muslims should always remember Golda Meir when making deal---. She made an outrageously expensive deal---she basically bought peace with that deal---.

I wish our colleague MURADK had that vision---.

 

[FuturePAF]

Rumour has it the Chinese were demanding 60 million per piece. PAF wanted to pay 40 something per aircraft. So at the moment it is a question of who is more desperate, ie the seller or the buyer. If the option of 16s opens up(very unlikely but not impossible), the negotiations could take an interesting turn that is if PAF wants to go down that route. The problem from my perspective is still the fact that the J10c is a bit of an unknown quantity, as against a fully matured and battle proven platform in the 16/52s. This could work both ways as an unknown quantity has an advantage of its own. Let us see what transpires and with what engine and modifications if at all.
A

The J-10 back in 2006 was not that much better then the JF-17 in areas that mattered. Comparing a hypothetical JF-17 Block III with all the bells and whistles, the J-10 will have to have more than "double" the capability to justify double the price.

Capabilities that may justify the 60 million dollar asking price would be:
Sensor fusion, a super-crusing engine with high enough thrust for a great then 1.0 TWR in standard thrust and full combat loadout, the latest sensors, world class weapons, low RCS through shaping and RAM, electronic defenses and offensive systems, self protection decoys, IRST, HMD

Considering CAC has already integrated these onto the J-20; applying them to the J-10 shouldn't be a problem. The limitation would be doing all this within the $60 million dollar budget. If CAC can do this, then Pakistan should go for the J-10CE; it would be a more capable fighter then even the Rafale, and give the PAF qualitative advantage for a relatively modest price. 3 squadrons at $ 3 billion spread out over 5 years would allow the PAF to keep up with the IAF until Project AZM is ready.

The incentive for CAC and China in general would be a blockbuster system it can market to all friendly nations that want a fighter like the F-16 Block 70/72 at much more affordable prices. Above $60 million, the J-10CE would be competing with the likes of the F-35 at $80 Million, or even second hand Eurofighters, that could claim capabilities similar to the F-16 Block 70/72. $60 million would be a price that would allow them to sweep the market; Friendly ASEAN countries and Mideast countries looking to expand defense ties to China would be prime customers.

 

[Armchair]

J-10Cs start at 60 million and are also costly in terms of logistics and CPFH. 50 J-10s could cost as much as 80 million per plane, all said and done.

PAF could re-manufacture Mirages. By this I don't mean overhaul, I mean re-manufacture parts using 3D printing. Other parts can use various metallurgical methods like electrolysis. These can include structural parts.

If they standardize on an engine like the RD-93 then they can truly make them common and cheap to operate. The RD-93s which have been up-tuned for the JFT can be downtuned for better CPFH.

PAF could lease some J-10Cs from China for 5 years and accelerate the Azm project.

The J-10 back in 2006 was not that much better then the JF-17 in areas that mattered. Comparing a hypothetical JF-17 Block III with all the bells and whistles, the J-10 will have to have more than "double" the capability to justify double the price.

Its not a matter of double the capability, air combat just doesn't work like that. Marginal improvements in capability costs a lot but offers advantage in battle. J-10s, Rafale and Eurofigher are designed for high altitude and high speed combat. They are masters of combat above 200 FL. They give a pilot an advantage in getting the first shot in BVR combat. This marginal improvement is enough for them to be worth the extra price.

 

[araz]

The J-10 back in 2006 was not that much better then the JF-17 in areas that mattered. Comparing a hypothetical JF-17 Block III with all the bells and whistles, the J-10 will have to have more than "double" the capability to justify double the price.

Capabilities that may justify the 60 million dollar asking price would be:
Sensor fusion, a super-crusing engine with high enough thrust for a great then 1.0 TWR in standard thrust and full combat loadout, the latest sensors, world class weapons, low RCS through shaping and RAM, electronic defenses and offensive systems, self protection decoys, IRST, HMD

Considering CAC has already integrated these onto the J-20; applying them to the J-10 shouldn't be a problem. The limitation would be doing all this within the $60 million dollar budget. If CAC can do this, then Pakistan should go for the J-10CE; it would be a more capable fighter then even the Rafale, and give the PAF qualitative advantage for a relatively modest price. 3 squadrons at $ 3 billion spread out over 5 years would allow the PAF to keep up with the IAF until Project AZM is ready.

The incentive for CAC and China in general would be a blockbuster system it can market to all friendly nations that want a fighter like the F-16 Block 70/72 at much more affordable prices. Above $60 million, the J-10CE would be competing with the likes of the F-35 at $80 Million, or even second hand Eurofighters, that could claim capabilities similar to the F-16 Block 70/72. $60 million would be a price that would allow them to sweep the market; Friendly ASEAN countries and Mideast countries looking to expand defense ties to China would be prime customers.

You know as well as I do that sales in the mid weight class are slowing world wide due to austerity measures as well as multiple products. There is also international bullying to buy military hardware by the big 2 which at least the rest of the nations need to contend with. Will J10survive in this market remains ti be seen. I still doubt that the Chinese will sell J10 just yet while they are still getting upto gear with J20, J16s and J31. They have a potentially good product in the light weight category where it is unrivalled in its class and due to lack of competitors has a niche which can be exploited. I think the time is to project JFT with vigour and get sales as well as establish oneself in the 4/4.5 generation market. Later on the same market can be utilized for replacement products in 5th generation products. The strangle hold of the fighter Jet mafia is very strong and needs to be broken and I doubt one can do it in the mid weight category.
Lastly I doubt the Chinese still have an engine that can do what you want the J10C to do. The engine manufacturing and proving to the world that these engines are reliable is a major weakness ofcthe Chinese systems. A testament to that is the PAF choice of RD93 instead of a comparable Chinese product. We have a lot of hoo haa but no proven product from China which can break that reputation( including the WS10 as of now) YET in my limited knowledge. I wish theChinese the best of luck and steady progress with this venture

 

[FuturePAF]

J-10Cs start at 60 million and are also costly in terms of logistics and CPFH. 50 J-10s could cost as much as 80 million per plane, all said and done.

PAF could re-manufacture Mirages. By this I don't mean overhaul, I mean re-manufacture parts using 3D printing. Other parts can use various metallurgical methods like electrolysis. These can include structural parts.

If they standardize on an engine like the RD-93 then they can truly make them common and cheap to operate. The RD-93s which have been up-tuned for the JFT can be downtuned for better CPFH.

PAF could lease some J-10Cs from China for 5 years and accelerate the Azm project.



Its not a matter of double the capability, air combat just doesn't work like that. Marginal improvements in capability costs a lot but offers advantage in battle. J-10s, Rafale and Eurofigher are designed for high altitude and high speed combat. They are masters of combat above 200 FL. They give a pilot an advantage in getting the first shot in BVR combat. This marginal improvement is enough for them to be worth the extra price.

The Mirages would require more than an overhaul to still be relevant in future conflicts. Electronics, Sensor Fusion, and a High enough TWR to carry long range munitions for precision strike from as far as possible will be key for future conflicts. The J-10 is expensive but with the upgrades I stated above it would give may of the capabilities of a 5th generation fighter in a relatively modest air frame.

I put double in quotes in the previous post to show that I didn't mean double literally. I agree the small improvements raise the price significantly. When its all said and done the price maybe higher than $60 million per plane, but the international market potential should incentives the Chinese to keep price as close to that price as possible, so they can win market share, and strategic alliances. Potentially moving countries into the Chinese camp.

 

[MastanKhan]

The J-10 back in 2006 was not that much better then the JF-17 in areas that mattered. Comparing a hypothetical JF-17 Block III with all the bells and whistles, the J-10 will have to have more than "double" the capability to justify double the price.

Capabilities that may justify the 60 million dollar asking price would be:
Sensor fusion, a super-crusing engine with high enough thrust for a great then 1.0 TWR in standard thrust and full combat loadout, the latest sensors, world class weapons, low RCS through shaping and RAM, electronic defenses and offensive systems, self protection decoys, IRST, HMD

Considering CAC has already integrated these onto the J-20; applying them to the J-10 shouldn't be a problem. The limitation would be doing all this within the $60 million dollar budget. If CAC can do this, then Pakistan should go for the J-10CE; it would be a more capable fighter then even the Rafale, and give the PAF qualitative advantage for a relatively modest price. 3 squadrons at $ 3 billion spread out over 5 years would allow the PAF to keep up with the IAF until Project AZM is ready.

The incentive for CAC and China in general would be a blockbuster system it can market to all friendly nations that want a fighter like the F-16 Block 70/72 at much more affordable prices. Above $60 million, the J-10CE would be competing with the likes of the F-35 at $80 Million, or even second hand Eurofighters, that could claim capabilities similar to the F-16 Block 70/72. $60 million would be a price that would allow them to sweep the market; Friendly ASEAN countries and Mideast countries looking to expand defense ties to China would be prime customers.

Hi,

I will try to give an example that will be easy to understand---.

Suppose you have a 1 yr old baby daughter---the love of your life---you wife's your parents and all the family's life---. Your child is dying of an ailment---.

The doctor prescribes a minimum 10 day MUST medicine course---.

The 10 day supply is very hard to find---there is nothing out there---but you find a generic medicine for a 5 day supply and an original for another 5 day supply---.

These are the only two options available---and nothing else---.

The generic medicine is Rs 100 a dose x 5+ Rs500

The original is Rs 500 a dose x 5 = Rs 2500

Thank you for understanding now---.

The issue over here is that the Paf found out that it is woefully ill equipped in numbers on the night of the 26th and the day of the 27th---.

Even if Paf starts to get the JF17 BLK 3---it would be not at its best in the first couple of 3 - 4 years or so because of weapons and system integration and pilots being trained for the aircraft---.

The J10C already comes with fully integrated weapons & the total EW package---the same weapons that we use on the JF17---.

So---the problem with the Paf is a lack in immediate numbers of 4th gen aircraft---.

 

[FuturePAF]

Hi,

I will try to give an example that will be easy to understand---.

Suppose you have a 1 yr old baby daughter---the love of your life---you wife's your parents and all the family's life---. Your child is dying of an ailment---.

The doctor prescribes a minimum 10 day MUST medicine course---.

The 10 day supply is very hard to find---there is nothing out there---but you find a generic medicine for a 5 day supply and an original for another 5 day supply---.

These are the only two options available---and nothing else---.

The generic medicine is Rs 100 a dose x 5+ Rs500

The original is Rs 500 a dose x 5 = Rs 2500

Thank you for understanding now---.

The issue over here is that the Paf found out that it is woefully ill equipped in numbers on the night of the 26th and the day of the 27th---.

Even if Paf starts to get the JF17 BLK 3---it would be not at its best in the first couple of 3 - 4 years or so because of weapons and system integration and pilots being trained for the aircraft---.

The J10C already comes with fully integrated weapons & the total EW package---the same weapons that we use on the JF17---.

So---the problem with the Paf is a lack in immediate numbers of 4th gen aircraft---.

If numbers are the issue, then opening a second line to produce more JF-17 would be the solution. All the infrastructure, training, and support equipment is there and ready.

The issue I was eluding to was a cost-benefit analysis. The J-10CE, in the estimation of the PAF, is not worth the $60 million asking price. The PAF was only willing to pay $40 million . I was suggesting CAC should improve the capabilities of the J-10, to bring it more in line with those of the F-16 Block 70/72, in order to justify its long term utility to the PAF.

The CAC has nearly a decade of experience on flying and debugging the J-20. It can easily apply those same technologies to the air frame of the J-10. It would pay off for them, as they could market the upgrades to the PLAAF as ways to make their 400+ J-10 Fleet still able to operate in a region that will see hundreds of F-35s.

From your example, of Brand versus Generic. The patent has run out on the capabilities of 5th generation aircraft, it has become the new standard. China will need to match the Block 70/72 to convince PAF to get off the fence and commit. The soon PAF feels it is getting a good return on its investment, the sooner we can start inducting the J-10, and let go of the idea it can wait it out for more F-16s.

 

[MastanKhan]

If numbers are the issue, then opening a second line to produce more JF-17 would be the solution. All the infrastructure, training, and support equipment is there and ready.

The issue I was eluding to was a cost-benefit analysis. The J-10CE, in the estimation of the PAF, is not worth the $60 million asking price. The PAF was only willing to pay $40 million . I was suggesting CAC should improve the capabilities of the J-10, to bring it more in line with those of the F-16 Block 70/72, in order to justify its long term utility to the PAF.

The CAC has nearly a decade of experience on flying and debugging the J-20. It can easily apply those same technologies to the air frame of the J-10. It would pay off for them, as they could market the upgrades to the PLAAF as ways to make their 400+ J-10 Fleet still able to operate in a region that will see hundreds of F-35s.

From your example, of Brand versus Generic. The patent has run out on the capabilities of 5th generation aircraft, it has become the new standard. China will need to match the Block 70/72 to convince PAF to get off the fence and commit. The soon PAF feels it is getting a good return on its investment, the sooner we can start inducting the J-10, and let go of the idea it can wait it out for more F-16s.

Hi,

Paf has fkd up so many times over purchasing the right aircraft---that it is not even funny---.

The Mirage F1---the hawkeye---the M2K---the used M2K's---the Rafale---the F16's---and now the J10's---.

Paf is woefully low in numbers---that is why it had all its assets in the aircraft on the 27th---because it knew that if the war escalated---its assets in the air would be the determining factor---.

 

[FuturePAF]

Hi,

Paf has fkd up so many times over purchasing the right aircraft---that it is not even funny---.

The Mirage F1---the hawkeye---the M2K---the used M2K's---the Rafale---the F16's---and now the J10's---.

Paf is woefully low in numbers---that is why it had all its assets in the aircraft on the 27th---because it knew that if the war escalated---its assets in the air would be the determining factor---.

Do you think the J-10CE in its current form is worth the $60 Million price? and If so, How many aircraft would be appropriate to meet the current and developing threat?

 

[MastanKhan]

Do you think the J-10CE in its current form is worth the $60 Million price? and If so, How many aircraft would be appropriate to meet the current and developing threat?

Hi,

You are thinking like a MERCHANT / KAROBARI & NOT A WARRIOR---.

Price is fair---not the best---. Pakistan needs to create an urge of importance with the chinese ambassador to get the price worked at and get a deal done asap---. A gd number would be around 4 sqdrn's---.

But for the need---then price is secondary---.

Remember---BLK3 is a longways away---. Just because it would be going into production in 2020---does not mean that the Pilot & the aircraft JF17 BLK3 would be ready for combat---.

OTOH---the enemy Rafale coming in would be combat ready---.