First Point
I was quoting Oscar's specific estimation, but indeed you have brought up similar views, and I have agreed with you on them. Yes, you should be credited with advocating the merits on the JH-7A, if not the originator of the view (I will take your word on in), a vocal proponent nonetheless.
Second Point
You are correct, I am not as familiar with the maintenance record of British origin aircraft. The reason I argued for the Tornado was the potential availability of the air frames, at potentially affordable acquisition prices, with modern capabilities, and in a short period of time, presuming the PAF pilots have years of experience on them. I know that's a lot of IFs, hence the caveat that the PAF should study the Tornados for their suitability per their experience with it, if any. Another HUGE caveat is the supply of weapons to arms said Tornados. Without access to smart munitions, these planes would be nothing more than fancy iron bombs platforms.
Therefore at the end of my post, I advocated either the J-10Ce which can carry 8000kg or the JH-7A which can carry 6500kg per Deagel.com
Third Point
Yes, on the acquisition of the JH-7A, it can be done with a lot more flexibility. Not only in terms of the financing but the equipment, and the variety of munitions it can carry. Upgrading the Design, engines, and avionics can all be done if we are requesting a 1500 T/R AESA radar, to match those of the Tornado, and finally scrap the Mirages. We could also buy brand new aircraft that would last 30 years with an increase use of composites and some reshaping to minimize stress on the air frame. You are correct, there is no other aircraft the PAF can acquire with so much potential, at such little cost, from a trusted ally.
Fourth Point
Indeed the JH-7A could change the way India operates in the Arabian Sea, if not at its land bases close to the border and further in land. Tornados regularly flew stable at 600 knots under 100 feet off the deck. The new WS-19 engines, if they could super-cruise; could potentially push that record and then some. Delhi is less than 400 km from the border. A supersonic flyover alone, on the deck, would rattle the Indians to their bones, akin to the psychological effect of the Osirak raid near Baghdad.
Only Caveat
For as good as the JH-7A is; it is still primarily designed as a strike platform. We need to acquire the J-10CE in
equal numbers to provide adequate escort protection, for long range missions. (We can no longer trust on the F-16, and the JF-17 for all its accolades, is a short-legged defensive fighter) We need to be able to go offensive if we are to make a paradigm shift in regional dynamics. The PAF can not afford to absorb attacks when the danger is eminent. The PAF needs to think more like the IDF-AF.
BUT, this can only be possible once we have secured a stable economy, and these two platforms. I know that's not what you want to hear, but we need to fight the inner demons before we can face the external ones.
I know you were not pleased with the PAF during the February Skirmish, but not getting derailed in rebuilding the Economy was a more important requirement, so that long term we are able to properly defend ourselves.
Hats off to you Sir. I hope the PAF takes your advice and goes for the JH-7A (as well as the J-10CE).
In the short term, acquiring types the PAF operates buys them more time with a type they have already sunk pilot training, infrastructure, maintenance, and all other kinds of familiarity, but long term, once the economic crisis passes, they need to recapitalize the force with capabilities adequate enough to meet the threat.
The threat is not only conventional but political. Pakistan's ties with the west could change on a whim, and that is not a long term solution to a constant threat from India. Hence acquiring more F-16s, unless for free or nearly free are not worth it, as PAF decided when it had the choice. The same goes for the Mirage. The PAF knows what it wants if it had the budget. The military needs to help root out any corruption preventing the nation from getting its economy back on track, the enemies within are worse then those on the outside.
The Block III is great in all capabilities, but is limited by short range, a limited payload, and generally smaller sensors. the doctrine dictates the platforms we need, and the PAF needs to think more Offensive if its to change the regional dynamics, and had an adequate defense going forwards. the Enemy is getting bolder, and need to know the PAF can counter them conventionally.
Hence the need to get the J-10CE, and help modernize and acquire the JH-7A; at least 68 aircraft each (4 full squadrons each), along with the last 50 JF-17 Block IIIs would allow the PAF to retire most of the Mirages and most of the F-7s. We would need to still field the last remnants of the Mirages and F-7s, if we intent to keep our numbers up, retiring them once we induct Project AZM/5th Gen Fighter. Hence the modest upgrades of the youngest Mirage air-frames would allow the force to have modern capabilities at all levels. Maybe 50 Mirages, and 30 twin seat F-7PGs for Pilot training.
An Order of battle by 2030 would be as follows:
76 F-16s
68 JH-7A (could be build an reach full operational capability by 2027)
68 J-10CE (could be build an reach full operational capability by 2027)
149 JF-17 (Last Three Squadrons of JF-17s could be build and operational by 2024)
and the last 80 Mirages and F-7s to be replaced when we get 5 Squadrons of 5th gen jets
(50 Mirages could be upgraded over the next 3-5 years, and all fully operational by 2024)
Should more F-16s become available, we could scale back Mirage upgrades and speed up retirement of the F-7s, and if even more F-16s come in retire the mirages all together.
We need to get 4 Squadrons of J-10CEs and 4 Squadrons of JH-7As.
P.S. When Upgrading the JH-7A Design; studying the research on future medium supersonic bombers will have to be looked at, so that what we field in the mid 2020s is still potent by 2050. Pakistan could work with the Chinese on a "Medium Range Semi-Stealthy Tactical Bomber"; a replacement for the JH-7A. Powered by two Ws-19 Engines; If we are looking for 60-80 Aircraft, and the Chinese plan to replace their JH-7/Jh-7A fleet of 270; a 350 aircraft program could get top priority and be fielded by middle of the next decade; especially that the WS-19 engines are showing progress.
From
Janes for your contemplation pleasure:
https://www.janes.com/article/85813/china-may-be-developing-first-two-seat-stealth-combat-aircraft
Blend the Knowledge gained from the J-20 with the designs from the American ATF program. Here is one particularly interesting design; similar to the JH-7 and the Tornado; but a delta wing. Considering they will be flying low to the ground or low over the sea; weapons hanging under the wings would not raise the RCS much, even if Awacs aircraft are around.
Source:
https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/The_General_Dynamics_ATF_proposal/5-1811184/
Wings with this shape would have lower wing loading and therefore a lower stalling speed and allow a better sustained turn performance (to better escape enemy defenses). A wing of this shape would allow the plane to be relatively smaller but still have decent range, and fly-by-wire technology would allow it to fly nap of the earth low level flying to avoid detection. The F-16XL also showed the wing shape made for a smoother ride at low altitude. The F-16Xl failed to secure a production contract because it could not super-cruise, a need to keep its IR signature low. Luckily the WS-19 is under-development, and as the engine for the PLANAF carrier force; super-cruise is a program goal. The Research from the F-16XL, under NASA, showed how to eliminate laminar flow and achieve super-cruise with the engine technology at the time. Hence the validity of this design for the long range strike role was vindicated.
Considering this design came from General Dynamics; this is a stealthier derivative of the F-16XL; which was planned as a deep strike platform. The payload alone speaks for itself.
