C for CPEC, Callousness and Controversy

[Spectre]

Sirs:

Permit me to ask both of you a question. Regardless of which CPEC route is implemented first with a Western or Eastern alignment, just exactly how will this claimed billions of dollars in trade materialize? What will be made, exported, imported, or transported exactly? The skies will not start raining yuans or dollars simply because a few good roads and rails have been built, all by themselves.

Refer the below post to get a crash course on how 180 Billion USD of investment is gonna flow in to Pakistan by 2020. A miraculous 36 Billion USD a year. I wouldn't consider capital inflows in stock market as investment but hey what do I know

Future certainly looks bright and all is hunky dory.

To be honest with you, just by reading your posts, you are a very negative person in nature. Which is why, you like others who are ALSO negative like IK (guiessing here). Its pure psychology at works, a magnet attracts a magnet. Like minded people attract other like minded people and that includes negative and pessimistic personalities too. I am not meaning this as an offense, just letting you know your psycho-profile.

No one said ALL is well. But no one said, holly shiit, the CPEC will ruin the world and will break Pakistan. Its senseless to think that a party in the government, who brought this entire thing to existence doesn't want to broaden their vote bank to other places (even if you took their selfish agenda to remain in power always). So its senseless to think they'll ignore a whole province or two, when you connect to China THROUGH those provinces.

Your 100% confidence is speculation and gossip to me as I know a LOT of actual detail that you have no clue about. So "gossip" can't be 100% or even 10%. I can assure you with 200% FACT based knowledge that the biggest beneficiary and wealth recipients of this program after phase I (around 2018) will be the KPK and Baluchistan.

Now you can remain negative, or learn to be optimistic. World lives on hope. Ever been to an African country? There are hundreds of millions of people who can't eat properly three times a day. But they life off of hope that their next generation will get educated and some will bring in investments and grow their economies, resulting in changing the life the way it exists in there.

You have $ 46 billion worth of INVESTMENT coming in (without having an economy to even qualify for such a large investment), now Pakistan Stock Exchange went live this week, there is estimated $ 120 BILLION worth of investments about to start flowing through it, between now and 2019. Plus Russian, America, and British investments ongoing. So your country went from Bankrupt (almost) in 2012 to having $ 180 BILLION (give or take some) worth of investments in just 5 years. Something that's not happened in the ENTIRE LIFE of Pakistan.

So with $ 170-180 billion worth of $$$$, you can be rest assured this money isn't going to people's bank accounts, its going to industry and Punjab and Sindh can't absorb more than $ 30-40 billion as they already have plenty of industry and land is rare in major hubs. Majority of this money is going to the KPK and Baluchistan. None of you brought in a billion to Pakistan, including the cry babies. So common sense tells me, the people who DID bring such massive amounts of investments in, deserve to complete their vision. You have a right to criticize them when they finish their term in 2018. But don't stop the work, don't derail the progress and don't deny your country from the ONLY and most significant opportunity it has got till her existence!! Have hope and faith, world lives off hope and you ain't no African nation!!

 

[Viper0011.]

Permit me to ask both of you a question. Regardless of which CPEC route is implemented first with a Western or Eastern alignment, just exactly how will this claimed billions of dollars in trade materialize? What will be made, exported, imported, or transported exactly? The skies will not start raining yuans or dollars simply because a few good roads and rails have been built, all by themselves.

I don't know where you live in the US. But next time you are on a highway, look around it on either side. It will be the SAME scene around CPEC!!!!! Too many negative people just derailing what they know for a fact is the best thing for Pakistan!!

1) Estimated 50- 100,000 trucks will pass by daily (phase I) giving tolls and gas and services (tire, engine mechanics, etc) across this entire CPEC system. So there is your many billions in tolls and thousands of new mechanics, service, gas stations, truck stops, restaurants, etc, required to serve this transportation system.By phase III, a MILLION plus trucks will go through a day!!

2) New hotels and hospitals will be built across the CPEC corridor where business people, truckers, etc will have to stay, or get to a doctor if they get sick, etc, etc. To support these areas, more doctors will come to this area, more nurses will come, more construction companies will build housing communities.

3) Real estate will become more expensive than today. New homes will be built to support people moving here. More schools, universities, colleges will open up to support people living in these new cities. More banks, grocer stores, malls, police, fire fighters, military bases will open up.

4) More businesses and labor will move here, specially the one's that are in shipping and distribution business.
When the population here is growing and this connects to China, Central Russian states and to Iran......where do you think companies like Nestle, Proctor and Gamble and others will open up their distribution centers? Remember, this area will get a lot of tax incentives for the businesses to move here. Same thing the US, the UK and others do.

5) The Chinese have signed MOU's already, where they'll setup Huwaei, Hair and other electronics and manufacturing giants to build assemble and ship products DIRECTLY from CPEC areas / industry hubs to the destination country. This will revolutionize Pakistan's job market and industry by itself!!

A good comparison of what is about to happen here, is Texas. Texas has attracted the largest business migration from across the US into Texas based on her superior infrastructure around Dallas and Austin area. They have cities filled with all kinds of industries and the economy is stable. Even oil crash has no impact on Texas's economy. The CPEC is being built on the SAME concept. It will be an economy of its own!!

Good thing is, since this is all going to be brand new, everything will be computerized and on the record, meaning no one can evade taxes like older business have been doing. So that alone will increase your tax payers by 200% over the next 5-10 years, providing serious amounts of cash to help finance other public welfare projects and get off the loan wagon!!

This new CPEC related economy, will actually be stronger and more profitable for Pakistan as a state, and without any impact from other countries economy, etc, as you are connecting to many countries directly. Do you have more questions? I have a feeling that you'll still come up with some more negativity!!

 

[Viper0011.]

Refer the below post to get a crash course on how 180 Billion USD of investment is gonna flow in to Pakistan by 2020. A miraculous 36 Billion USD a year. I wouldn't consider capital inflows in stock market as investment but hey what do I know

Future certainly looks bright and all is hunky dory.

What's a "capital influx" when you buy stocks....what is it called? Investing into Securities!!!! "INVESTING" is the key word. So Capital Inflows are really "investments" (and have always been). Your jealousy doesn't change the fact

Also, when HCL or other got billions of investments (or "capital influx" as you called it) what do they do with that moeny? Invest into OTHER projects to grow their businesses and then grow the stocks so the people providing "capital influx" can gain profit on the stock. So the $ 120 billion through the stock marekt will ALSO go into MORE projects which will grow Pakistani businesses.

Lack of common sense mixed with jealousy much???? Yea, it'll burn for a LONG time!! Sorry.

Allow me to show you how Pakistan's stock market related funds are doing, and I am listing what was available BEFORE the actual stock market started this week. From this point on, things will ONLY go higher and better (above Google, Amazon and others due to top returns over the past three years, since the current government took the office). The lowest stock price is $ 1124.21 per stock and highest is like $ 2901.00.

Symbol Name Last Trade Type Industry/Category Exchange
^DJSAFPKT Dow Jones SAFE Pakistan Total R $ 2,895.17 Last Trade Index DJI

^DJSAFPK Dow Jones SAFE Pakistan Index $ 1,716.28 Last Trade Index DJI

^DWPKDT Dow Jones Pakistan Total Stock $ 1,839.98 Last Trade Index DJI

^DJSFPKTR Dow Jones SAFE Pakistan Titans $ 2,901.11 Last Trade Index DJI

^DWPKD Dow Jones Pakistan Total Stock $ 1,124.21 Last Trade Index DJI

^DJSFPKT Dow Jones SAFE Pakistan Titans $ 1,602.65 Last Trade Index DJI

WIPAK.L FTSE Pakistan Index $ 2,133.98 Last Trade Index LSE

^DWPK Dow Jones Pakistan Total Stock $ 1,964.41 Last Trade Index DJI

^DWPKT Dow Jones Pakistan Total Stock $ 3,215.11 Last Trade Index DJI

@Icarus @Syed.Ali.Haider @TaimiKhan @saiyan0321 @Ammara Chaudhry @mr42O @Leader @Jaanbaz @Jango : Guys - check out the above Pakistani securities and their last trade value as of yesterday. If this isn't performance, I don't know what is.

Google is trading at $705, Amazon is at $ 584, GE is at $ 28.02, Lockheed Martin is at $ 214.99, Apple is at $ 97.39, and ALL the above Pakistani ETF's are WAY over all these top US stocks!!!!!

I hope this explains to you how the entire globe is looking at Pakistani market that they are willing to pay 3 times the cost of Google and Apple to hold Pakistani ETF's due to extreme profits the Pakistani market has been providing!! And these were the same people / financial institutes who declared Pakistan bankrupt in 2012!!

I think this ends the debate IMO as to the future of Pakistan from an investments and CPEC's related growth, and the current government's efforts to boost Pakistan's economy.

The journey is about to take Pakistan right below Australia in the next 10+ years. Just watch

 

[Neutron]

A true story
There were three ships which were nearby when the Titanic sunk.

One of them was known as the Sampson. It was 7 miles away from the Titanic and they saw the white flares signaling danger, but because the crew had been hunting seals illegally and didn’t want to be caught, they turned and went the opposite direction away from the Titanic. This ship represents us and people like us if we are so busy looking inward at our own sin and lives that we can’t recognize when someone else is in need.

The next ship was the Californian. This ship was only 14 miles away from the Titanic, but they were surrounded by ice fields and the captain looked out and saw the white flares, but because the conditions weren’t favorable and it was dark, he decided to go back to bed and wait until morning. The crew tried to convince themselves that nothing was happening. This ship represents those of us who say I can’t do anything now. The conditions aren’t right for it and so we wait until conditions are perfect before going out.

The last ship was the Carpathia. This ship was actually headed in a southern direction 58 miles away from the Titanic when they heard the distress cries over the radio. The captain of this ship knelt down, prayed to God for direction and then turned the ship around and went full steam ahead through the ice fields. This was the ship that saved the 705 survivors of the Titanic.

When the captain looked back at the ice fields they had come through, he said Someone else hands must have been at the helm of this ship! This ship represents those who would pray to God for direction and then go without hesitation.
+++
Life whispers in your soul and speaks to your heart. We need to take time to listen and to these whispers and take heed.

My take: Pakistan needs Carpathia.. Got plenty of other types around.

 

[Icarus]

I have read your posts and i have a very clear understanding of CPEC. Your posts talk about an ideal situation where all is well. And as per our past and present, all is not well.

And i can tell you with 100% confidence, if initially eastern route is made operational, all investment will go on that side and once that starts, nothing will go towards the area known as western route. I hope we never see that day, but if we did then hope we both are here on this forum and i will ask you that now tell who was right and who was wrong.

Sir Inshallah the Western Route will be the first to be operationalized provided that the project is not halted by this political immaturity that is being displayed by our leaders.

Sirs:

Permit me to ask both of you a question. Regardless of which CPEC route is implemented first with a Western or Eastern alignment, just exactly how will this claimed billions of dollars in trade materialize? What will be made, exported, imported, or transported exactly? The skies will not start raining yuans or dollars simply because a few good roads and rails have been built, all by themselves.

First phase is to establish Gwadar as a trading outpost and as a transit point. Then the haulage of goods to and from China, intended for Africa, Europe and Middle East will be routed through the CPEC which is a significant portion of the global trade volume, the duties off that should be a significant source of income in itself and then subsequently this trade impetus, theoretically speaking, should spur more investment. Its an ambitious goal but its something to work towards.

 

[VCheng]

First phase is to establish Gwadar as a trading outpost and as a transit point. Then the haulage of goods to and from China, intended for Africa, Europe and Middle East will be routed through the CPEC which is a significant portion of the global trade volume, the duties off that should be a significant source of income in itself and then subsequently this trade impetus, theoretically speaking, should spur more investment. Its an ambitious goal but its something to work towards.

But my question is precisely this: what "goods" are these? Who is producing them and where are they going? Chinese goods already have great transportation networks originating from its eastern seaboard.

 

[Spectre]

What's a "capital influx" when you buy stocks....what is it called? Investing into Securities!!!! "INVESTING" is the key word. So Capital Inflows are really "investments" have always been. Your jealousy doesn't change the fact

Also, when HCL or other got billions of investments (or "capital influx" as you called it) what do they do with that moeny? Invest into OTHER projects to grow their businesses and then grow the stocks so the people providing "capital influx" can gain profit on the stock. So the $ 120 billion through the stock marekt will ALSO go into MORE projects which will grow Pakistani businesses.

Lack of common sense mixed with jealousy much???? Yea, it'll burn for a LONG time!! Sorry.

Allow me to show you how Pakistan's stock market related funds are doing, and I am listing what was available BEFORE the actual start market started this week. From this point on, things will ONLY go higher and better (above Google, Amazon and others due to top returns over the past three years, since the current government took the office). The lowest stock price is $ 1124.21 per stock and highest is like $ 2901.00.

Symbol Name Last Trade Type Industry/Category Exchange
^DJSAFPKT Dow Jones SAFE Pakistan Total R $ 2,895.17 Last Trade Index DJI

^DJSAFPK Dow Jones SAFE Pakistan Index $ 1,716.28 Last Trade Index DJI

^DWPKDT Dow Jones Pakistan Total Stock $ 1,839.98 Last Trade Index DJI

^DJSFPKTR Dow Jones SAFE Pakistan Titans $ 2,901.11 Last Trade Index DJI

^DWPKD Dow Jones Pakistan Total Stock $ 1,124.21 Last Trade Index DJI

^DJSFPKT Dow Jones SAFE Pakistan Titans $ 1,602.65 Last Trade Index DJI

WIPAK.L FTSE Pakistan Index $ 2,133.98 Last Trade Index LSE

^DWPK Dow Jones Pakistan Total Stock $ 1,964.41 Last Trade Index DJI

^DWPKT Dow Jones Pakistan Total Stock $ 3,215.11 Last Trade Index DJI

@Icarus @Syed.Ali.Haider @TaimiKhan @saiyan0321 @Ammara Chaudhry @mr42O @Leader @Jaanbaz @Jango : Guys - check out the above Pakistani securities and their last trade value as of yesterday. If this isn't performance, I don't know what is. Google is trading at $705, Amazon is at $ 584, GE is at $ 28.02, Lockheed Martin is at 214.99, Apple is at 97.39 and ALL the above from Pakistan are WAY over all these top US stocks!!!!! I hope this explains to you how the entire globe is looking at Pakistani market that they are willing to pay 3 times the cost of Google and Apple to hold Pakistani EFT's due to extreme profits Pakistani market has been providing!!And these were the same people who declared Pakistan bankrupt in 2012!!

I think this ends the debate IMO as to the future of Pakistan from an investments and CPEC's related growth. The journey is about to take Pakistan right below Australia in the next 10+ years. Just watch

@Icarus it is indeed sad to see that you have rated the quoted positively considering this post doesn't even have even an iota of financial logic.

FYI investment in stock markets or HCL in this example are secondary investment. The company in these cases doesn't get a single pence out of this "investment" the gain/losses are shared by the traders who are often themselves foreign institutions . The money which comes in is easy money with no lock in period like in FDI.

All traders are looking to make a quick buck and capitalize on the low base. As soon as they deem that the stocks are over-valued they will bail out. Real investors in stock market who bring in certain stability are domestic retail investors.

We have all seen that BSE/NSE or for that matter Shanghai Stock Markets suffer from flight to quality in turbulent times. In such cases the losses are often born by small local investors. Companies as I have earlier stated remain divorced too an extent from both the secondary investments which constitute majority of stock market activity and pull outs.

The thing which could have been beneficial is not quick and easy money in stock exchanges but funding of start-ups, Foreign Direct Investment and greenfield investment. Thus Chinese investment is Gold in this regard and I would consider the 46 Billion out of 180 Billion as Kosher.

The only real investment happens in STOCK MARKET are in primary securities like IPO's or follow on offers which are once in a blue moon event for any company.

Anyway if you remember from our earlier conversations I have nothing against Pakistan - infact I whole heartedly support it's economic development and prosperity as that would give Pakistan a substantial stake in peace process b/w our countries. I just cant stand the blatant ignorance and smug arrogance on display. It is better to be realistic and plan for the future based on ground realities than indulging in wool-gathering.

@Syed.Ali.Haider @rainman @Nihonjin1051 your views on the veracity of my post as you guys have experience in financial markets as I assume.

 

[Icarus]

But my question is precisely this: what "goods" are these? Who is producing them and where are they going? Chinese goods already have great transportation networks originating from its eastern seaboard.

Indeed, however the eastern ports are not suitable for traffic towards ME, Africa and Europe when a land route through Pakistan can cut the travelling time by up to two-thirds and correspondingly the travel time as well. As for the "Products", they include Chinese exports intended for said region as well as fossil fuels as imports for West and Central China.

 

[VCheng]

@Syed.Ali.Haider @rainman @Nihonjin1051 your views on the veracity of my post.

Just look at the historical trends, returns and volume of trade for all those funds quoted and the truth is before all to see.

50k trucks a day is a truck every two seconds. A million trucks is 11 trucks per second. 36 billion dollars of annual investment is 3 billion per month.

That is a lot.





(Of BS.)

 

[tested]

A true story
There were three ships which were nearby when the Titanic sunk.

One of them was known as the Sampson. It was 7 miles away from the Titanic and they saw the white flares signaling danger, but because the crew had been hunting seals illegally and didn’t want to be caught, they turned and went the opposite direction away from the Titanic. This ship represents us and people like us if we are so busy looking inward at our own sin and lives that we can’t recognize when someone else is in need.

The next ship was the Californian. This ship was only 14 miles away from the Titanic, but they were surrounded by ice fields and the captain looked out and saw the white flares, but because the conditions weren’t favorable and it was dark, he decided to go back to bed and wait until morning. The crew tried to convince themselves that nothing was happening. This ship represents those of us who say I can’t do anything now. The conditions aren’t right for it and so we wait until conditions are perfect before going out.

The last ship was the Carpathia. This ship was actually headed in a southern direction 58 miles away from the Titanic when they heard the distress cries over the radio. The captain of this ship knelt down, prayed to God for direction and then turned the ship around and went full steam ahead through the ice fields. This was the ship that saved the 705 survivors of the Titanic.

When the captain looked back at the ice fields they had come through, he said Someone else hands must have been at the helm of this ship! This ship represents those who would pray to God for direction and then go without hesitation.
+++
Life whispers in your soul and speaks to your heart. We need to take time to listen and to these whispers and take heed.

My take: Pakistan needs Carpathia.. Got plenty of other types around.

Extremely well written

 

[VCheng]

Indeed, however the eastern ports are not suitable for traffic towards ME, Africa and Europe when a land route through Pakistan can cut the travelling time by up to two-thirds and correspondingly the travel time as well. As for the "Products", they include Chinese exports intended for said region as well as fossil fuels as imports for West and Central China.

Sir, that would work only if the goods were time-critical and if the cost for transport is competitive. And oil would need its own infrastructure that will likely be not economically feasible for many reasons.

Extremely well written

Sir Rostron was not a Muslim, was he?

 

[Spectre]

Just look at the historical trends, returns and volume of trade for all those funds quoted and the truth is before all to see.

50k trucks a day is a truck every two seconds. A million trucks is 11 trucks per second. 36 billion dollars of investment is 3 billion per month.

That is a lot.





(Of BS.)

Even discounting historing trends of returns and volumes - Even assuming they are providing stellar returns and are blue chip securities - it still doesn't help but see the complete ignorance on display when the person claiming to be know all in such matters states that these investments would fuel Pakistan's growth.

In most stable of Markets like US and UK there is at best a tangential correlation b/w stock markets and economy in developing markets like India and China that correlation is even more tenuous and in Pakistan where the Stock Market is just in it's infancy it is laughable to presume that the Stock Markets would fuel growth even if the "Bulls are reigning Supreme"

 

[tested]

Sir, that would work only if the goods were time-critical and if the cost for transport is competitive. And oil would need its own infrastructure that will likely be not economically feasible for many reasons.



Sir Rostron was not a Muslim, was he?

No, but we are all humans are we not. All capable of good and all capable of bad.

Indeed, however the eastern ports are not suitable for traffic towards ME, Africa and Europe when a land route through Pakistan can cut the travelling time by up to two-thirds and correspondingly the travel time as well. As for the "Products", they include Chinese exports intended for said region as well as fossil fuels as imports for West and Central China.

Icarus, I will say this and only this much , because I am a person of analysis...and because me being an Indian automatically means that if I say its 'day' outside, Pakistanis would make it out to be 'night'.

Take it for what you feel it is worth based on a shallow analysis.

1. The overwhelming majority of Chinese factories are located on or near their Eastern seaboard.
2. The overwhelming consumers/population density in China are in the Eastern half.
----
3. Pakistan is connected to China at its Western most tip.
4. The distance between where Pakistan is connected to China to its Eastern most tip is roughly 4000kms(I increased it a little for the sake of ease of comprehension)
5. The length of Pakistan from its Northern tip to its port in Gwadar is roughly around 2300 kms

Therefore for any goods to be transported from Chinese factories to Africa would have to traverse a road distance of around 6000 kms give or take.

The terrain between Western China and Eastern China is not naturally advantageous.
-----

6. Cost of sea transportation is around half that of road transportation per kilometer.
7. Change of mode of transport adds to costs and delays and companies prefer not to do it- there will be a change of transport mode as goods will have to be shifted to ships at Gwadar.
8. Chinese ports are the most efficient ports in the world and there is an existing eco system of ports and factories in Eastern China.

Goods (the kind that China really ships out to the world) are highly price sensitive, not highly time sensitive.


That said.

There are many advantages to be had if Pakistan is able to do it...and if successful it will make CPEC all that Pakistanis want it to be:

1. Convince Chinese companies to shift their factories to CPEC routes (with labour costs being far lower in Pakistan and other advantages)
This ranges from electronics to textiles!
2. Build an oil pipeline (oil can be pumped across vast distances) and this would be a sure shot earner.
3. Build a dedicated freight line from Gwadar to Eastern China.

Best of luck in the endeavor.

 

[Viper0011.]

@Icarus it is indeed sad to see that you have rated the quoted positively considering this post doesn't even have even an iota of financial logic.

FYI investment in stock markets or HCL in this example are secondary investment. The company in these cases doesn't get a single pence out of this "investment" the gain/losses are shared by the traders who are often themselves foreign institutions . The money which comes in is easy money with no lock in period like in FDI.

@Syed.Ali.Haider @rainman @Nihonjin1051 your views on the veracity of my post as you guys have experience in financial markets as I assume.

Hurt???!!!! Bring facts, not gossip. Ever worked with a team to take a company public? I have!!!!! Ever worked at the Wall Street? I have!!!! In fact as I type, on various monitors in front of me, are showing me market actions and other details from Asia, to Europe to the US!! So these investments and larger business strategy is my domain. In the next couple of years, I'll be TEACHING business strategy to the future generations of business pioneers at some top business school!! Find someone to reason with me factually and then I can respond to lower quality emotional posts of yours!!

The post I wrote had perfect content in there. I listed Pakistani EFT's which you can check yourself on google, against top Western companies. I listed their last trade value vs. Google and Apples of the world as of yesterday. And you didn't see these ultimate FACTS, you just wanted to cry instead!!!!

And I can tell how "experienced" you are. If all you think about the stocks as a "broker" trying to make a buck or two!! This is capital money coming to a business based on their performance, profit to share holders (called Share Holder's Equity). And when you do an IPO, your shares are sold, the company gets investments and the reason others want to put their hard earned money under a business in terms of stock, is they expect the business to use the stock money and grow and be MORE profitable. In turn, increasing stock values and distributions per stock in the future!! Google as an example was way below $ 100 not too many years ago. Its not over $ 700 per stock!!

1. The overwhelming majority of Chinese factories are located on or near their Eastern seaboard.
2. The overwhelming consumers/population density in China are in the Eastern half.
----
3. Pakistan is connected to China at its Western most tip.
4. The distance between where Pakistan is connected to China to its Eastern most tip is roughly 4000kms(I increased it a little for the sake of ease of comprehension)
5. The length of Pakistan from its Northern tip to its port in Gwadar is roughly around 2300 kms
.

The first two are the MAIN reason for the CPEC. The Chinese shippings take month or more to get to destinations (certain destinations) through Sea routes. Through the Western China to the ME, and Central Russian states, you cut this distance down to days!!

Plus, the Chinese businesses are planning MASSIVE investments and expansion in the Western China to grow that region (350 million + people) and that will happen primarily from the CPEC. From Eastern ports to Western China, the distance is too much and a lot more expensive. Plus you still can't connect China with Russian states and have a port close by. CPEC through Gawader does that. These same business expansions will create business hubs in Pakistan also, to assemble (and build some products too), as well as setup distribution centers. So its a win win situation for Pakistan, no matter which Arm you use to grab your ear.

 

[tested]

So its a win win situation for Pakistan, no matter which Arm you use to grab your ear.

Its a win-win without a doubt. It was the magnitude that was under discussion.