Blast in Quetta kills 84 Shias, injures 200

[Abingdonboy]

@muse I think what you are trying to say but are not clearly stating is that the PA and ISI are not homogeneous creatures. Rather there are factions within these entities that appear to be working to their own agendas. As such it is hard for those Pakistanis who are, understandably, patriotic and trust their military and intel agencies, to square away the notion that these elements are both the protectors of the nation at the same time others, in the same uniform, are those seeking to do Pakistan harm. Of course there are the "good" elements in the PA/ISI who are genuinely trying to fight the terrorist menace but when they are effectively fighting their own organisations their hands are tied.

The depressing part of this is that it is going to take some pretty exceptional circumstances for the current situation to be combated. So the status quo will go on unchanged.


As they say- to change something, first something must change.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

The first thing to do is to admit that you have a problem - the second thing is to be clear as to what the problem is, in it's particulars, and third targeting and decapitation of the leadership of the militant intellectual and operations leadership.

We do not need revolution, and evolution is bleeding us dry -- we need to resolve to act regardless of obstacles, however, we cannot act unless we get 1,2, and 3 right in that order.

I am of the opinion that the leadership knows exactly that there is a huge problem, clearly and precisely, and it is moving to target and eliminate the terrorists, as fast as it capabilities permit it. Do you know why I think that? Because the leadership knows that it will itself be destroyed if they do not get this right. This is a fight for survival, and nothing concentrates the mind as a fight to the death.

 

[LURKER]

Khameini sent a condolence message when 100 shias were murdered in quetta last month. I don't think they want to do more than that and further isolate themselves by antagonising pakistani power centre(s).

OT but sending a condolence letter is not as same as condoning the so called freedom struggle of Kashmir...does that not antagonize India ??

 

[muse]

Try to look at it through a different dynamic :

None of this was happening in the '90s when the so-called Petrodollars were flowing in full force, when both Saudi sponsored religious seminaries & Iranian Cultural Centres were in full swing competing with each other. Why ? Because despite our failure to check that intrusion we had a grip on things because we weren't nearly as preoccupied as we are right now !

Now Pakistan's International Standing is in shambles, our economy has nose dived to depths that one shudders to contemplate, whatever remained of our institutions are either crumbling or already derelict to the point of no return ! All of those are more than contributory towards an increase in violence because no economy equals more lawlessness & no institutions to deal with that leads to a sh*t storm !

Unfortunately in our case this was exasperated by us joining the US led War on Terror that was perceived most negatively in Pakistan from disapproval to outright violence against the State. And that is exactly why this Jihad Narrative was provided to the TTP to recruit their foot soldiers from across the length & breadth of Pakistan; I've heard Maulvis saying - Pakistan provides the US supply routes & bases to continue on their fight in Afghanistan & in that fight the US has killed many innocent Muslims. What follows is that Pakistan is accessory to murder & its justified to pick up arms against the State !
Now most Pakistanis by & large don't think along those lines but the very worst element do - Logic is after all extremely malleable ! Our failure lies in not giving a coherent, easily understood counter-narrative to that narrative & this is where everyone from the media to our civil society to our Government & the Armed Forces have terribly failed ! They just couldn't appreciate the chronic importance of perception. A disgruntled Baloch Youth or a disgruntled Pakistani from elsewhere isn't going to go on a fact finding mission to try to understand what 'comprises' & 'necessities' are in International Relations & what the probable effect of saying a 'flat NO' to US supply lines would have been for our economy, our future & perhaps even our very existence in the due course of time. Hes going to listen to the Molvi, to the Sardar & to other like-minded individuals & target the nearest enemy which happens to be a Hazara, a Punjabi Settler, a Pakistani Soldier, the Pakistani civilians who brought this Government to power, members of the State machinery etc.

Had we been able to influence popular perception on a town-to-town level as was required of us we probably wouldn't be half as bad as we are right now !

Right now the Government is dysfunctional & busy filling up their coffers without a care in the world whilst the army is fighting on multiple fronts without being able to be wholly successfully always or even decisively on a single front ! That coupled with the failure of our economy to rehabilitate these areas is crippling us in a one step forward two step back approach !

This same sh*t was happening in Iraq & the same was happening in Afghanistan in the early '90s - The vacuum created in Pakistan is deafening ! The Army can't juggle so much in so little time without the backing of the civilian apparatus - They don't have any ! The Police is politicized beyond belief, every development project is eaten from the inside & those charged with Governance would rather make a couple of bucks & send them abroad than to actually come up with something !

The ISI isn't omnipotent & omniscient & neither is the army but claiming that somehow the influx of all the aforementioned sh*t thats brewing is evidence enough for complicity is a poor case in my opinion.

Excellent - this is one discourse that many of us who have a Fauj connection find appealing, however, let me deal with the govt aspect first -- the politicians who run the state are actually running scared, because they are always scared of the army - is that really their fault? Usually it is the army that assists the state not the other way around - we who have a Fauji connection must , MUST get used to the idea that they civilians run the govt and our role is to be competent in our role, which is to kill the enemies of the state, not politics, not governance.

If today every institution is politicized, it is because the civilians are scared of the army and this politicization offers them a safeguard.

Now with regard to the heart of the problem - the civil war which is in essence a culture war - it was not just civilians, but the really the armed forces which sought to create a legitimacy for themselves in governance who introduced this evil - and it is up to the armed forces to be up front with the public, who are these militants, who is helping them, and how we are going to tackle them - see, what is happening now is that the armed forces are saying, well you can go to hell, because we have political fish to fry-- 800-1000 kgs of explosives have been accumulated (ISI does not know how or when and especially why, is this success, does this track as true? because if yes, then we don't need them, do we?) - I will guarantee that there will be no arrests, just as there were no arrests in any number of such cases, why? Because those involved are professionally related with those whose responsibility it is to prevent this.

1. Admit we have a serious problem
2. Define the problem in detail
3. Solve the problem

 

[Armstrong]

I am of the opinion that the leadership knows exactly that there is a huge problem, clearly and precisely, and it is moving to target and eliminate the terrorists, as fast as it capabilities permit it. Do you know why I think that? Because the leadership knows that it will itself be destroyed if they do not get this right. This is a fight for survival, and nothing concentrates the mind as a fight to the death.

Argus its more like :

(a) We know that there is a Problem !

(b) We do know what the Problem is !

(c) There is no consensus on how to approach it ! The Army seems to be following its own thought process doing what they deem fit whilst the Civilian Apparatus is busy gobbling up as much as they humanely can. I do sincerely hope that the Army appraised the situation correctly.

 

[KS]

Rather that time you had an enemy on which you can effectively re-direct the full force of the mujaheddin through the porous LoC. Now once the LoC is sealed , pressure builds up on the other side and it looks for any available vent to escape. Those vents are the voiceless and defenceless Pakistanis.

Think about it - as soon as the Afghan war ended in about 1988, immediately the Kashmiri insurgency broke out in 1988-1989 and that kep the mujaheddin vets and the whole insurgency industry running with no backlash. But once after the 9/11 and Parliament attack, India started putting the screws on the LoC and massively upgrading the patrolling on the borders which in tur reduced the inflitration inside our territory. Now the mujaheddin who were trained for the war against India (with a heavy dose of Islamism for use against Hindu India) suddenly found they were out of employment and went to the next nearest place where they could ply the only trade they knew. That was in Pakistan itself against those whom they found were lesser Muslims, as opposed to them purer Muslims or atleast they provided a ready pool of trained fighters for money or idealogy. I dont know why you would dismiss that outright.

 

[Hyperion]

MEOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW! Nice one bro...

Good Story !

 

[muse]

I am of the opinion that the leadership knows exactly that there is a huge problem, clearly and precisely, and it is moving to target and eliminate the terrorists, as fast as it capabilities permit it. Do you know why I think that? Because the leadership knows that it will itself be destroyed if they do not get this right. This is a fight for survival, and nothing concentrates the mind as a fight to the death.

We need the people to know - really I have come to understand that this Pakistan is in a very different place, media and public awareness are reality in Pakistan


AndI would ask you, please "show me" show me that Fauj is moving to target and eliminate - it's exactly the opposite, the politicians fearing the Fauj have come up with APC so that Fauj will not have any excuse but to eliminate the militant, their creration, their creatures.

You will note, when we ask why Fauj is not in Waziristan, the response will be terrain or any other excuse, but never a straight answer, if Indians were in Waziristan, would we be hearing excuses??? Honestly?

 

[Emmie]

Argus its more like :

(a) We know that there is a Problem !

(b) We do know what the Problem is !

(c) There is no consensus on how to approach it ! The Army seems to be following its own thought process doing what they deem fit whilst the Civilian Apparatus is busy gobbling up as much as they humanely can. I do sincerely hope that the Army appraised the situation correctly.

There's a reason for this discord! Political entities don't want to be held responsible for repercussions, unfortunately in Pakistan it's the political entities who are always made scapegoat - whether it's 71 or 99, politicos are demonized.

Bit bitter but true, no consensus will be ever made on any approach to Baluchistan situation. It's the army who have to take on this task alone...

 

[Armstrong]

Excellent - this is one discourse that many of us who have a Fauj connection find appealing, however, let me deal with the govt aspect first -- the politicians who run the state are actually running scared, because they are always scared of the army - is that really their fault? Usually it is the army that assists the state not the other way around - we who have a Fauji connection must , MUST get used to the idea that they civilians run the govt and our role is to be competent in our role, which is to kill the enemies of the state, not politics, not governance.

If today every institution is politicized, it is because the civilians are scared of the army and this politicization offers them a safeguard.

Now with regard to the heart of the problem - the civil war which is in essence a culture war - it was not just civilians, but the really the armed forces which sought to create a legitimacy for themselves in governance who introduced this evil - and it is up to the armed forces to be up front with the public, who are these militants, who is helping them, and how we are going to tackle them - see, what is happening now is that the armed forces are saying, well you can go to hell, because we have political fish to fry-- 800-1000 kgs of explosives have been accumulated (ISI does not know how or when and especially why, is this success, does this track as true? because if yes, then we don't need them, do we?) - I will guarantee that there will be no arrests, just as there were no arrests in any number of such cases, why? Because those involved are professionally related with those whose responsibility it is to prevent this.

1. Admit we have a serious problem
2. Define the problem in detail
3. Solve the problem

Unfortunately whatever Fauji connection I had dried up back when Grandpa retired from the Army in '65 & he wasn't all that endeared to how it was being run even back then.

You've presumed too much for I wasn't asserting that the Army should operate above & beyond its mandate ! Perhaps an example would elucidate better - You had an Army operation in Swat, in some Tribal Agencies & even in Baluchistan; when it was done where was the Civilian Apparatus to take over from there ? Where was the Police to maintain Law & Order, where were the relevant departments to develop those areas in the much vaunted 3D formula that the Civilian Executive talks about ? You had the Defense by the Army where was the Development & the Deterrence ? Why did the Army feel the need to maintain military presence in Swat still ? Because the Civilian Institutions did nothing to instil confidence in the people of those areas or to follow up with their mandated tasks.

The raison detre you give for the politicization of every Institution doesn't hold for me in the least bit because the 111 Brigade doesn't need more than a few seconds to topple a democratically elected Government no amount of politicization of the Army, the Judiciary or any other Institution is going to save the Civilian Executive's skin by being there boys against the Army.
Those Institutions are politicized for the same reason Institutions are politicized the world over - Decadence, Corruption & Nepotism ! The MNA doesn't have his guy as the SP in his town because hes afraid the Army may come & whisk him away he has it because he wants to give favors & receive some, he wants to maintain his hold over his area & he wants to benefit from whatever corruption the Police itself is involved in, in a classical symbiotic relationship.

Had the Armed Forces, currently any political ambition, the PPP led Government has given them numerous opportunities to topple it & declare Martial Law or pull off a Musharaf like Chief-Executive farce. Even the people would welcome that in preference to the sh*t this Government has subjected Pakistan to.

I agree that the ISPR is very poor when it comes to public perception management & they haven't presented a counter-narrative to tackle the problem; they are terribly guilty on this front !

As far as the ISI's incompetence viz vie the explosives are concerned - Do you know how easy it is to make these explosives ? From what I've heard you get most if not all of the stuff from your local departmental store. The ISI has tipped off different relevant bodies in the past of a probable attack & many a times explosive laden trucks smuggling them into Pakistan from Afghanistan have been caught ! Thwarting terror bid: FC seizes prohibited material near Quetta – The Express Tribune And this is one of many other examples. One horrible act that didn't get caught across a 1000 km+ border that is indefensible & cannot be manned should not be taken to be evidence to suggest that the complicity of the ISI, the FC or the Army !

As far are your 'no one getting caught because those who are involved are professionally related to those who are tasked with its prevention' comment is concerned - On what basis do you give such a sweeping statement ?

Baring half-arsed media reports riddled with talk of unnamed sources & secret reports what evidence does one have to substantiate such an assertion ?

 

[iPhone]

You wanna give your Gawadar port to the Chinese? Take this then. Vested interests who don't wanna see that collaboration will continue to make sure blochistan is in shambles. Expect much worse violence in future unless Pakistan backs out of this deal for good.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

Argus its more like :

(a) We know that there is a Problem !

(b) We do know what the Problem is !

(c) There is no consensus on how to approach it ! The Army seems to be following its own thought process doing what they deem fit whilst the Civilian Apparatus is busy gobbling up as much as they humanely can. I do sincerely hope that the Army appraised the situation correctly.

The enormity and the many facets of the problem virtually ensures that there will never be complete unanimity. Progress will come with little steps on many fronts, with sidesteps and setbacks along the way.

Please do not write off the civilian apparatus so quickly. It too will limp along for better or for worse, in a semi-alive, moribund sort of way that seems to be its standard mode of operation. Yes, it is corrupt, but it s a know way of corruption that people know how to work with.

The Army leadership is fully apprised too. Please see my comments below to Muse.

We need the people to know - really I have come to understand that this Pakistan is in a very different place, media and public awareness are reality in Pakistan


AndI would ask you, please "show me" show me that Fauj is moving to target and eliminate - it's exactly the opposite, the politicians fearing the Fauj have come up with APC so that Fauj will not have any excuse but to eliminate the militant, their creration, their creatures.

You will note, when we ask why Fauj is not in Waziristan, the response will be terrain or any other excuse, but never a straight answer, if Indians were in Waziristan, would we be hearing excuses??? Honestly?

What you see as a lack of progress is merely a demonstration of how realistically the Army leaderships knows the gaps in its abilities, for it itself does not buy the glorified image that it has created in the minds of the people. The Army is ill-equipped, ill-trained, and ill-suited to fight a guerrilla war, because for the last 65 years, it has been trained to look only to the East. It is changing, but an organization managed by WW2 standards can change itself only so quickly, and no quicker.

 

[Armstrong]

There's a reason for this discord! Political entities don't want to be held responsible for repercussions, unfortunately in Pakistan it's the political entities who are always made scapegoat - whether it's 71 or 99, politicos are demonized.

Bit bitter but true, no consensus will be ever made on any approach to Baluchistan situation. It's the army who have to take on this task alone...

I think its less because of political ownership than it is because of the different opinions on getting into this mess & consequently different opinions on how to solve it !

On one hand you've got people who think that a disengagement from the US led War On Terror would rob the Jihadis of their Jihad Narrative & the people of the Tribal Areas, backed by the Army, are the best force we have at ridding extremism from those lands & sending it back from whence it came from.

On the other hand you've got those who think that continuing on the way we are would eventually pay dividends seeing that the TTP are already driven out of our lands & into neighboring Afghanistan with each successive year their network is becoming that much weaker - A little like what the US did with Al-Qaeeda ! But can we afford to make such assumptions that we've got the stamina to see this through & the TTP really is withering the way we think it is ?

Either way the consensus on whats the problem is the same in both of these two approaches.

 

[muse]

Perhaps an example would elucidate better - You had an Army operation in Swat, in some Tribal Agencies & even in Baluchistan; when it was done where was the Civilian Apparatus to take over from there ? Where was the Police to maintain Law & Order, where were the relevant departments to develop those areas in the much vaunted 3D formula that the Civilian Executive talks about ? You had the Defense by the Army where was the Development & the Deterrence ? Why did the Army feel the need to maintain military presence in Swat still ? Because the Civilian Institutions did nothing to instil confidence in the people of those areas or to follow up with their mandated tasks.

while it is justified, lets be conscious that there was not and there is not security there for civilians officials go about their work - recall Malalai - And can the economy support the cost of sustained presence - and we all know the area is still not safe.

 

[Armstrong]

while it is justified, lets be conscious that there was not and there is not security there for civilians officials go about their work - recall Malalai - And can the economy support the cost of sustained presence - and we all know the area is still not safe.

And that my friend is the conundrum we find ourselves in...don't we ! Do we have the stamina to see this through ? I don't think so.