Great post!
I also feel the same way, there is a very high chance that they had inside information. To me it seems, that the insider relayed the info that, this particular convoy is a good candidate. They are lightly armed, no recon party etc etc. It also seems to me that they were hit where they didn't expect it, the convoy was probably not given all the due precautions (light protection, no survey party) because the FC (or who ever was in charge) deemed this area to be safe. This all points to a highly mobile adversary in that region. Where they can converge on location on short notice. Scary stuff.
Another thing to note is that, the cameraman continues to stay close to the location and he is filming the helicopters that arrived to help. He is about 5 km away. Thats not very far, they should have been caught. Can FC request a UAV from the airforce to arrive to help, perhaps later the FC can pay the cost of using it?
This cat and mouse game has to end. Balochistan is massive in area no doubt. Army has deployed two infantry Divisions and FC is almost the same strength (2 divisions roughly). Covering such a frontage is next to impossible but not entirely impossible. The problem is infront of us but there are a lot of variables that can be played with like tactics, deployment of men and material, use of weaponry, mobile recon, intelligence and surveillance units etc. In PMA, during second term or maybe third term i think, there is an exercise where "ambush" tactics are taught and cadets demonstrate practically, so the Army officers are well versed on such military applications. The question remains for FC. The FC of KPK has been active in Ops with regular Army and has seen lots of action. The FC in Baluchistan is still on a learning curve unfortunately as Ops conducted in KPK have not been conducted in Baluchistan. It would be hard to believe but before 2002, the LMG mounted on a pickup was just hung on mount, not even properly fixed as it was never brought in use. After 2002, everything changed in KPK. Coming to this incident, it was planned poorly and thus a heavy price was paid.
There exists a term called "threat matrix", it can pin point the level of threat to be faced according to some some criteria's. Looks like the threat matrix was not even visited before moving out as a convoy. OGDCL employs helicopters and small aircrafts also to land in far flung areas at its gas sites. OGDCL identified the security threat and not only assigned own guards but also requested FC for escort. While OGDCL considered the threat to be high, it seems FC under estimated the threat and took it as a routine mission. We wouldn't have known that OGDCL employees were travelling towards a site that day, its not like they are foreign dignitaries and media will surely report it. The unfortunate incident happened and then media reported it. The gas sites in Sui are also protected by Army, an infantry battalion is usually responsible for defending that area and its troops are scattered all over the area.
I made a thread on another force that exists in Pakistan. Its called National Guard. It has four branches but the important ones are Mujahid and Janbaz force. These are light infantry and deployed on LOC also. They are tasked with providing AD in populated areas during war like towns and cities. NG is trained to defend an area from enemy attack, while FC is trained for policing urban areas. Their tasks are different so training is different too. Next is Balochistan constabulary numbering 8000+ whose training standards have "tried" to be maintained by imparting training from regular infantry Battalions (as an example i remember 22 Punjab Regt was tasked with it). There is also a Balochsitan Highway patrol covering 155 km of road who failed to detect the set up for this ambush. The Balochistan police and costabulary have been trained in AT Ops by Army's 48 FF and 6 AK infantry regiments. The Elite Police in Balochistan numbering 10,000 is protecting VIPs in Quetta. Then there are Levies and Khasadars, a very basic form of tribal policing.
If you look at northern end of Baluchistan, Army and FC are deployed while on the southern end are Pakistan Marines. The whole area in between these two ends has presence of LEAs that i mentioned above except NG.
The intelligence agencies deployed in Balochistan is a story for another day and their inter-working/information sharing skill is something to be desired. In their own indepenedent sphere, they will work day and night producing results. Working together, especially where concerns of local sardars and local government employees come in, thats where the problems start to arise.
Army and Chief own the regular troops, but it seems no one owns FC. The FC commanders at different levels are deputed from Army who have a stay of 2-3 years, however irresponsible service in FC (or Rangers) has nullified promotions of many officers. It seemed once that Pakistan Marines are treated orphans only but Balochistan FC is suffering the same fate. This is what happens when the PSP officers in-charge of a department are made to sit thousands of kms away as in case of officers in Ministry of Interior. IG FC may write to them which they may or may not approve. At least the COAS visits the troops he is responsible for and conducts regular CCs meetings.
Maybe you know or maybe you dont know that there are places in Balochistan where writ of Government has no value and Police is helpless. Those places are palaces and areas of sardars. I can tell you an incident in which one of the teams from my organisation was providing communication in some area of Balochistan. The local sardar had a sprawling palace there and was a good host. A feeder cable of few 100 meters was stolen from the team on site. Police said they were helpless. Sardars men produced the feeder cable after a hue and cry was raised. No one has the right to ask what goes in and out of such palaces. Anybody can be kidnapped and thrown there for eternity. What if miscreants and insurgents find refuge there ? Police dare not ask. Levies are their own men from tribes. If FC is sent then political issues arise. if Army is sent in, then Top Brass wants dictatorship in the country. Blaming on all LEAs but no practical steps in real sense have been taken by Government to bring Balochistan under its writ completely.
So when all the Military top brass and Generals are cursed at on this forum, why aren't other factors concerning Balochistan looked at ? Are PSP officers just drinking tea in their offices in Islamabad ? What about the Government employees sitting in Quetta handling different security departments ?
NO. Its a trend of few PDF members to at once start cursing Generals without understanding even an iota of the ground situation. I can't sit and judge members on their posts but it has become hectic to portray a picture sometimes.
The Baloch tribes have their own enmities also. I asked an Army officer once why he was awarded T(QA) as a medal (Tamgha e Quaid e Azam). He responded that he was instrumental in getting a peace treaty signed between two rival Baloch tribes as he was sent on duty in that area to curb down violence.
That helicopter you mentioned flying seemed a Naval Sea King to me which could have flown from the Ormara Naval base after FC convoy troops had sent wireless calls on radios. FC can request fire support but the assets can be sent only if available, its not about operating cost.
MRAPs are required but is that the only solution ? I dont know. And i dont think that MRAP is the only solution. Yelling MRAPs on top of the lungs here or cursing Military Generals while doing nothing practically is just way to vent out. I see the same members posting same stuff in the same recurring incidents, its been years now.
Ask anyone of the the members here who mentioned they felt pain for FC troops and their families, who among them has written to Ijaz Shah ? The reply is probably no one has, but it would be really impressive to see if they put a pen where their mouth is.
