BD’s economy; apparent, noticed and unnoticed.

[TopCat]

What is the minimum HDI require to be a middle income country??? Pakistan and Bangladesh for now has same HDI but with upgrading base year it will be lagged behind. But Pakistan is a middle income country. Any idea on it.

Now it all left to infrastructure. You cant live in hell hole and still call it a middle income country. Even though PK is economically weak now still life is quite handsome there compared to India and BD. PK can easily pass as upper middle income country if their per capita reaches to that level.

 

[Skies]

Instead of going into detail lets make it to the point. From where you have got the imaginary figure that for lower middle income country per capita GDP as of 2011 should be 1876.68 USD? If this is the case neither Pakistan is lower middle income country nor India even with 1500 USD per capita. They also not likely to be one by 2021 with 3335 USD per capita. So, it is not a big deal if Bangladesh also can not be if we go by your logic.

Even under present circumstances Bangladesh within a decade will cross per capita GDP of Pakistan. If we accept your argument even with that Bangladesh wont be middle income country by 2021 then what will be the condition of Pakistan???

Now lets see what is the definition of countries by certain income level. I am using World Bank's definition that you are saying have used here.

How we Classify Countries | Data

Income group: Economies are divided according to 2011 GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are: low income, $1,025 or less; lower middle income, $1,026 - $4,035; upper middle income, $4,036 - $12,475; and high income, $12,476 or more.

Now tell me in which angle it appeared to you Bangladesh wont cross the $1026 per capia income mark by 2021.

What is appearing to me you are using average income of all middle income countries and coming up with that value. But that is irrelevant here.

I made detail to avoid answer and questions again and again.

I got from worldbank data (look: Row 19, year 2011): http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls why would I come with imaginary numbers when I made a thread on it?

It seems you did not read the first post completely where the table and data link were given. You are reading from a different perspective now, you have to give time.

Pk is an unstable country now, so I did not put that country in that comparison list at my first post. I counted the groups and stable countries only.

No India is in that Lower middle country already, its GDP/capita was around 1488$ in 2011. check the datasheet.

Why bringing unstable PK again? Did not I give the example of USA and China in the first post?

Gross national income (GNI) per capita can be used to classify economy, but I used GDP per capita which was also used by World Bank : http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls and my whole observation was based on that data sheet. And then I used forecasting technique of linear equation to show that what will be GDP/capita of BD in 2021. And found that the people who think BD will be in the list of Middle Income country by 2021 are wrong! Also the range to be in the list of Middle Income county increases year to year (I shown in earlier posts). BD will not be in Lower middle country's list with 1488$ (It's India's GDP per capita in 2011 and it is in the list Lower middle country already) in 2021.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

I made detail to avoid answer and questions again and again.

I got from worldbank data (look: Row 19, year 2011): http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls why would I come with imaginary numbers when I made a thread on it?

It seems you did not read the first post completely where the table and data link were given. You are reading from a different perspective now, you have to give time.

Pk is an unstable country now, so I did not put that country in that comparison list at my first post. I counted the groups and stable countries only.

No India is in that Lower middle country already, its GDP/capita was around 1488$ in 2011. check the datasheet.

Why bringing unstable PK again? Did not I give the example of USA and China in the first post?

Gross national income (GNI) per capita can be used to classify economy, but I used GDP per capita which was also used by World Bank : http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls and my whole observation was based on that data sheet. And then I used forecasting technique of linear equation to show that what will be GDP/capita of BD in 2021. And found that the people who think BD will be in the list of Middle Income country by 2021 are wrong! Also the range to be in the list of Middle Income county increases year to year (I shown in earlier posts). BD will not be in Lower middle country's list with 1488$ (It's India's GDP per capita in 2011 and it is in the list Lower middle country already) in 2021.

Bottom line you have just used the average of the all per capita GDP of the middle income countries to justifies your claim that I have just confirmed seeing the report. 1800 usd GDP per Capita is not required to be a lower middle income country instead it is the present average of GDP per capita of all lower middle income countries. Same way at row 29 it provided average GDP per capita of all the South Asian countries.

Before writing such an article and opening a thread you should have checked that.

So, Bangladesh will be a middle income country by 2021 even much earlier then that but it may be ranked lowest in the list of lower middle income countries.

 

[Skies]

Bottom line you have just used the average of the all per capita GDP of the middle income countries to justifies your claim that I have just confirmed seeing the report. 1800 usd GDP per Capita is not required to be a lower middle income country instead it is the present average of GDP per capita of all lower middle income countries. Same way at row 29 it provided average GDP per capita of all the South Asian countries.

Before writing such an article and opening a thread you should have checked that.

So, Bangladesh will be a middle income country by 2021 even much earlier then that but it may be ranked lowest in the list of lower middle income countries.

The average of the GDP per capita can be used where it is the mean value in a range. I told about the moving range in earlier posts. Now if we do +/- 400 with the mean value like 1800, then the range for Lower Middle Income country will be 1400 - 2200 USD (more than 20% +/- deviation from the mean). And the range is positively moving forward year to year.

BD had 734 GDP per capita in 2011 (it's not the average value like used in the group range), but it's no where near to that 1400 - 2200 range of 2011's Lower Middle Income country which is moving forward year to year.

Similarly, BD had 428 GDP per capita in 2005, when the range of Lower middle income country was 718-1076 (-/+ 20% deviation from the mean value of 897), no where near to that 718-1076 range of 2005. So clearly, the range is moving forward year to year.

So, calculating the forecasting method, I can see that BD will not reach the moving range in 2021, but I agree that the living standard will improve, but may not as per today's Lower Middle Income countries in future.

So, in this comparison from 2005 -2011, it is clear that BD always lags behind the moving range.

So, the vision 2021 for Middle Income country things is rhetorical and not feasible.

 

[Skies]

Bangladesh's Average Growth Rate for GDP per capita:

1961-1969 (Pakistan period, 8 years) = 4.06%

Calculation:

Equation: LN (End Year/First year)*(1/Number of years)*100

Here:

End year GDP per capita in 1969 = 129.37
First year GDP per capita in 1961 = 93.48
Number of years = 1961-1969 = 8
Result = 4.06%

1975-2011 (Bangladesh, last 36 years) = 2.73%

Calculation:

Equation: LN (End Year/First year)*(1/Number of years)*100

Here:

End year GDP per capita in 2011 = 734.99
First year GDP per capita in 1975 = 274.79
Number of years = 1975-2011 = 36
Result = 2.73%

Comment: Now it can not be said that Independent BD would have better economy! Because Independent BD has less Average Growth rate GDP per capita than E.PK. (4.06%>2.73%)

Pakistan's Average Growth Rate for GDP per capita:

1961-1969 (West Pakistan, 8 years) = 6.87%

Calculation:

Equation: LN (End Year/First year)*(1/Number of years)*100

Here:

End year GDP per capita in 1969 = 149.38
First year GDP per capita in 1961 = 86.20
Number of years = 1961-1969 = 8
Result = 6.87%

1975-2011 (Pakistan, last 36 years) = 5.48%

Calculation:

Equation: LN (End Year/First year)*(1/Number of years)*100

Here:

End year GDP per capita in 2011 = 1194.32
First year GDP per capita in 1975 = 165.58
Number of years = 1975-2011 = 36
Result = 5.48%

India's Average Growth Rate for GDP per capita:

1975-2011 (India) = 6.17%

Calculation:

Equation: LN (End Year/First year)*(1/Number of years)*100

Here:

End year GDP per capita in 2011 = 1488.51
First year GDP per capita in 1975 = 161.06
Number of years = 1975-2011 = 36
Result = 6.17%

Bangladesh, Pakistan and India's GDP per capita curve:

Open in different tab for enlarged view.

Comment: Big difference between BD vs PK and IN in trend!!


Data source: http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls

 

[TopCat]

@Eorl

You have a innovative way of analyzing things and very interesting. Keep up the good work.

But the problem is, things are not as simple as you thought to be. You just cant add up things and just divide with n numbers of years to project something in the future ignoring all the catalyst in the process.

But anyways good work there.

 

[Skies]

@Eorl

You have a innovative way of analyzing things and very interesting. Keep up the good work.

But the problem is, things are not as simple as you thought to be. You just cant add up things and just divide with n numbers of years to project something in the future ignoring all the catalyst in the process.

But anyways good work there.

Thank you, I used the method of calculus and logarithm (LN) here, method found in youtube.

Yes I agree that there also are many factors, but still historical data give strong reflection.

I intention to open this thread is to show: BD may be doing well, but not to the point exaggerated by some people.

 

[Skies]

2. Akbar Ali Khan, Bangladesh's Daily Star

"Per capita income in West Pakistan in 1950 was only four per cent higher than that of East Pakistan. In 1970 per capita income in West Pakistan exceeded that of East Pakistan by 61 percent. The increase in disparity of two wings reinforced the secessionist argument that West Pakistan was becoming richer at the expense of East Pakistan....annual per capita income growth in Bangladesh since 1972 exceeded almost every year total per capita income growth in East Pakistan in twenty years. This clearly suggests that political independence provided much more conducive environment for growth in Bangladesh than united Pakistani. . Though economic growth in East Pakistan was revived during Ayub Khan's so-called decade of reforms, growth rate in erstwhile East Pakistan was much lower than that of West Pakistan."

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...pakistan-comparison-2012-a.html#ixzz2FNqJmJqT

1. What were the per capita income in West Pakistan and East Pakistan in 1970? I do not see any data on Per capita Income/GNI before 1973 for BD and PK anywhere!

2. Bangladesh's Average Growth Rate for GDP per capita:

1961-1969 (Pakistan period, 8 years) = 4.06%
1975-2011 (Bangladesh, last 36 years) = 2.73%

I think more light should shade why we have only 2.73% average growth rate after independence (GDP per capita) in last 36 years? Based on the available data that from 1961-1969 (before 71 war, Ayub Khan's reforms) we had more average growth rate which was 4.06%.

 

[Skies]

http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/SI.POV.DDAY_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls

 

[Skies]

http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/IP.PAT.RESD_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls

http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls

 

[dollarman]

Bangladesh's Average Growth Rate for GDP per capita:

1961-1969 (Pakistan period, 8 years) = 4.06%



1975-2011 (Bangladesh, last 36 years) = 2.73%



Comment: Now it can not be said that Independent BD would have better economy! Because Independent BD has less Average Growth rate GDP per capita than E.PK. (4.06%>2.73%)

The whole of Pak (East + West) was growing at 4%. If stories of economic discrimination that BD claims are true, than West Pak was probably growing more than 4% (5 or 6 or 7 or 8%), while East Pak was growing @ a rate much lower than 4%.

Thank you, I used the method of calculus and logarithm (LN) here, method found in youtube.

There is no calculus in any of your analysis. If you are using calculus, where are derivatives, integrals, limits of the functions you are analyzing?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calculus


What you have used is very basic Compound Interest formulas to figure out average growth rates given initial and final values and investment terms in years which does use a logarithmic approach:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_interest

 

[Skies]

The whole of Pak (East + West) was growing at 4%. If stories of economic discrimination that BD claims are true, than West Pak was probably growing more than 4% (5 or 6 or 7 or 8%), while East Pak was growing @ a rate much lower than 4%.



There is no calculus in any of your analysis. If you are using calculus, where are derivatives, integrals, limits of the functions you are analyzing?

Calculus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


What you have used is very basic Compound Interest formulas to figure out average growth rates given initial and final values and investment terms in years which does use a logarithmic approach:

Compound interest - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I calculated the average growth rates for both E.pk and w.pk separately to show the differences before and after war (as people claims that W.pk was looting us), where W.pk had 6.87% and E. pk had 4.06% from 1961-1969. I do not say that there was no economic discrimination at all, but I do not exaggerate the discrimination also, and the clue to understand that is BD has only 2.73% average growth rate from 1975-2011.

Yes there is no calculus. seeing the original equation I thought there is use of limit.

And yes, I know about compound rate.

 

[Skies]

Human Development Index (HDI)
A composite index measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

I calculated the average growth rates for both E.pk and w.pk separately to show the differences before and after war (as people claims that W.pk was looting us), where W.pk had 6.87% and E. pk had 4.06% from 1961-1969. I do not say that there was no economic discrimination at all, but I do not exaggerate the discrimination also, and the clue to understand that is BD has only 2.73% average growth rate from 1975-2011.

Yes there is no calculus. seeing the original equation I thought there is use of limit.

And yes, I know about compound rate.

Please keep all of your cooked up data to yourself. From 1975-2011 BD had an average GDP growth rate of 4.39%. From 1980s it always had higher GDP growth on average then Pakistan.

From 1961-1969 E.Pak had only average growth rate of 3.88%.

 

[Skies]