Australia is at a point where it has to choose between its ally America and its economic backer Chin

[Shajida Khan]

You do know we're debating based on @Beast hypothetical situation that China and Australia stop trading, who will hurt more? actually after i read your above argument, i decided not to waste my time any further
"If losing 1/3 of your total export is not a big deal" what is?
Your counter argument was simply irrelevant to what we've been going through

Well, how about Australia looses 33% of her total export but China has to put almost half of her iron and steel plants out of commission and reduce her power generation by 40%. Who will hurt more?

 

[Mista]

It will not. USA and western has demonstrated such attitude and yet they once rule the world. Now its Chinese turn. In fact, Chinese is better becos we do not imposed culture change nor government system on other sovereign nation unlike the west. Chinese do not have the attitude of my system is superior than your system.

Mark my words. China will take over USA as its dominate force. Australian need to prepare for this coming. Its not for Australian to choose but circumstances choose you.

China will be the largest single factor but not the total factor in the equation. By then the world will have multi-poles of power and even the strongest pole will not dominate and rule the world.

 

[grey boy 2]

He quoted TOTAL export..........Not export to a particular country.

Learn how to relate with my previous "Facts" with the connection of my post here,
"Facts" don't lie, but you do by twisting and spinning will get you no where 月九

 

[Beast]

Yep. Trade is mutually beneficial and both sides will lose in a trade war. If you keep using trade to threaten your partners, your trade creditability with other countries will also be hurt and you will lose more than you gain.

China credibililties is better than some nation who uses brute forces to outright evade a legal government of a sovereign nation based on false hope of democracy.

 

[Shajida Khan]

US dollar collapse is more likely than Chinese economy crashed. The China Russia reminbi swap deal for oil has already send chill to the Federal. If few more countries start joining this game. I can for sure the collapse of US dollar is coming sooner than I expected

You were talking about possibilities and as far as probabilities go, I believe we --as in whole of humanity-- are really really bad at comparing and estimating probabilities, especially regarding large scale 'world-wide' events. We only realize in hind sight. Before 2007, people used to believe, real estate in US will never go down. Well it did. Right now you are all too sure of Chinese rise and dominance, lets see how it plays out. I will not rule out the possibility of Chinese fizzle as well, Japan has shown us how spectularly you can screw up with speculative growth in Real Estate and credit fuled bubble. China is also doing that to a large extent.

 

[Beast]

Well, how about Australia looses 33% of her total export but China has to put almost half of her iron and steel plants out of commission and reduce her power generation by 40%. Who will hurt more?

Where did you get those figures? Guess you didnt know other nation can export and make up what Australia can offer. Yet Australia can't make up the sudden lose of 33% trade lost? You think Europe or USA has the money to make up China lost? Or you think Europe or American is still as rich as pre WWII times?

Europe are struggling with migrant influx problem and think they can spare you extra money? USA has mountain of debt which can never repaid. You think Uncle Sam will be kind enough?

 

[grey boy 2]

Well, how about Australia looses 33% of her total export but China has to put almost half of her iron and steel plants out of commission and reduce her power generation by 40%. Who will hurt more?

Yes, we're doomed
Iron Ore: 2017 World Market Review and Forecast

https://mcgroup.co.uk/researches/iron-ore

 

[Shajida Khan]

Where did you get those figures? Guess you didnt know other nation can export and make up what Australia can offer. Yet Australia can't make up the sudden lose of 33% trade lost? You think Europe or USA has the money to make up China lost? Or you think Europe or American is still as rich as pre WWII times?

Europe are struggling with migrant influx problem and think they can spare you extra money? USA has mountain of debt which can never repaid. You think Uncle Sam will be kind enough?

Did you read my original post?
See who are the biggest producer of Iron Ore, it is China (1.3-1.5 billion tonne), Australia (830-840 million tonne), Brazil (430-440 million tonne) and India (130 million tonne). BTW, Australian ore also happens to be richer in Iron content. If you rule out Australia, you have to source that ore from some where else or stop production. Who can fill in for Australia? I doubt anyone.

Similar argument exist with coal.

Yes, we're doomed
Iron Ore: 2017 World Market Review and Forecast

https://mcgroup.co.uk/researches/iron-ore

Yes you are, if you boycott Australian Ore. Your own piechart shows that.

 

[grey boy 2]

Did you read my original post?
See who are the biggest producer of Iron Ore, it is China (1.3-1.5 billion tonne), Australia (830-840 million tonne), Brazil (430-440 million tonne) and India (130 million tonne). BTW, Australian ore also happens to be richer in Iron content. If you rule out Australia, you have to source that ore from some where else or stop production. Who can fill in for Australia? I doubt anyone.

Similar argument exist with coal.


Yes you are, if you boycott Australian Ore. Your own piechart shows that.

OK, i rest my case here and let the viewers to be the judge then

 

[Mista]

You do know we're debating based on @Beast hypothetical situation that China and Australia stop trading, who will hurt more? actually after i read your above argument, i decided not to waste my time any further
"If losing 1/3 of your total export is not a big deal" what is?
Your counter argument was simply irrelevant to what we've been going through

1)Net exports rather than just exports is calculated in the GDP.


2)Even if you only count exports, it only contributes to 0.046% of the GDP ($60 billion of exports for an economy of $1.3 trillion). And that's assuming the exports to China will not flow to other countries such as China's manufacturing competitors.


3)That's because Australia's economy is dependent on household consumption which make up more than half of the GDP, rather than exports.

3)Even if incomes in Australia drop by one-third because of whatever reason, their income will still be higher than many other countries and will still be considered as a developed country. Their people will certainly not starve in the streets.

 

[Viet]

I don't need the admiration, what I stated was just fact's - China and Australia are mutually benefitting each other through trade and investment - but that is just short term gains, not long term sustainability. democracy vs communism ideologies is always at confrontation.

The free trade agreement has all but demolished local manufacturing and made so many industries redundant, the Chinese are the reason the housing market spiralled out of control, causing a housing crisis. People are becoming aware of the toll the Chinese presence is having in a vast array of industries. Their right to protect their livelihood.

Having said that, this has led to the Australian government taking measures and changing laws to protect the very industries and housing market from utter collapse. Then you have the SCS and confrontation resistance from the ASEAN region's, do I need to say more?

bingo. you can do trades with everybody, even with most untrusted folks from pluto planet, but only close a military alliance with a country you trust most. trade and defence have nothing in common.

lol, you do know we can trade with ANYONE right? What did China have and the world do not? Electronic? Rare Earth? We trade with China because they are CHEAP, not because they are not replaceable. Go ahead, don't sell anything to Australia, we can get what you sell from Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia anyway.

On the other hand, if Australian did not sell you dairy, iron ore and coal, who are China going to turn to? North Korea??

chinese live in a dream world indeed. they believe the day they become rich all people will come and bow down before them, surrendering dignity and territories, thanking the new chinese master for being allowed to trade.

 

[jhungary]

Learn how to relate with my previous "Facts" with the connection of my post here,
"Facts" don't lie, but you do by twisting and spinning will get you no where 月九

lol I did not say yours are not fact, you just quote the wrong facts...

The item you quote is the total export value in 2016.

Not all 48.9 Billions of Ores, slag, ash gone to China. You have quote the total Export volume, of which, China only have 34.1% share in that pies.

Australian economy was, is, and is always going to be driven by service sector. Export and Import value or Balance of Trade is not really a big factor that made up the Australian Economy. on the other hand inward stock and FDI contribute bulk into Australian Economy, of that, US is ahead of China in 26% to 3%

If I have to choose between China stop trading with us or American stop investing with us, do you know which way Australian is going to choose? lol.

As I said, you can only threaten trade if we are third world African Country, I am cool if we stop trading with China what's 60 billions is to our economy, we may sell our stuff to other country cheaper, or get them back for strategic storage, at worse, we lose 60 billions., but we will eat shit if US stop investing in Australia You are talking about 860 billions in 2015-2016 compare to the measly 75 billions from the Chinese. THAT, MY FRIEND, IS FACT.

PS You know I do speak Chinese right? I know what is 月九, I suggest that you go fix this, I assume @waz had a talk with you?

chinese live in a dream world indeed. they believe the day they become rich all people will come and bow down before them, surrendering dignity and territories, thanking the new chinese master for being allowed to trade.

Well, I think they are confused us with some backward African Nation. Or simply gone red for us rejecting a bunch of their deal lately, not sure.

But if these people think Australian Economic will collapse because China stop trading with us, let them think lol, I have no problem people living in their dream world, just don't shove those dream to me and keep it to themselves is alright with me.

 

[Shajida Khan]

PS You know I do speak Chinese right? I know what is 月九, I suggest that you go fix this, I assume @waz had a talk with you?

What does it translate to? I guess it is a slang. In Japanese 九月 will mean 9月 or 9th month or September. But I guess it cann't be this harmless.

 

[Mista]

chinese live in a dream world indeed. they believe the day they become rich all people will come and bow down before them, surrendering dignity and territories, thanking the new chinese master for being allowed to trade.

As ridiculous as it may sound, your statement has a certain element of truth unfortunately.

lol I did not say yours are not fact, you just quote the wrong facts...

The item you quote is the total export value in 2016.

Not all 48.9 Billions of Ores, slag, ash gone to China. You have quote the total Export volume, of which, China only have 34.1% share in that pies.

Australian economy was, is, and is always going to be driven by service sector. Export and Import value or Balance of Trade is not really a big factor that made up the Australian Economy. on the other hand inward stock and FDI contribute bulk into Australian Economy, of that, US is ahead of China in 26% to 3%

If I have to choose between China stop trading with us or American stop investing with us, do you know which way Australian is going to choose? lol.

As I said, you can only threaten trade if we are third world African Country, I am cool if we stop trading with China what's 60 billions is to our economy, we may sell our stuff to other country cheaper, or get them back for strategic storage, at worse, we lose 60 billions., but we will eat shit if US stop investing in Australia You are talking about 860 billions in 2015-2016 compare to the measly 75 billions from the Chinese. THAT, MY FRIEND, IS FACT.

View attachment 395083

Not to mention investments has a longer term effect on the economy than trade. It indicates a certain level of transfer of skills, knowledge and technology, so it upgrades your economy to be more competitive in the long run.

 

[jhungary]

What does it translate to? I guess it is a slang. In Japanese 九月 will mean 9月 or 9th month or September. But I guess it cann't be this harmless.

It's a Chinese tricks you use when you want to by-pass filter in Chinese Website, it's when you add 月 and 九 together. it's along the same line as in 門 + 小, that way you can spell the following foul word.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonese_profanity#Diu

月九 = Alternative writing of Penis in Cantonese.