I'll just give you the overall gist - since it was posted in multiple posts over week and months
First thing first - I had stated that PTI was bringing a knife to a gun fight and will lose in the near term.
2) I stated that establishment was elbows deep in getting rid of IK (in the early days there were still some confusion) We were aware months prior to the May event.
3) I had stated that economy will take a major shock
4) I had stated that establishment will win the first battle and be successful in getting IK under constant legal wrangles and will separate IK from his leadership
5) I had stated don't hold your breadth that the judiciary will do anything meaningful - the judiciary will fail us
6) I had said that AM is a weak chief and hence he is likely to come out over the top in some of his actions - as that is generally what weak people do
7) Governance will start eroding over time and national fabric will tear
8) Criminality will increase and we'll get caught in a doom loop
Additional things I had stated which are yet to come through
1) Worsening insurgency in KPK and BL
2) Food supply challenges
Things I am surprised with:
1) The harsh treatment of ex-mil people and their families ( I did not think they would do that as I consider this an own goal - Army's influence and strength in large measure comes from this larger network - they have really hurt it and indirectly hurt themselves)
2) I had not factored or thought about the brain drain which should have been a simple calculus
Now by assessment includes:
Massive shocks to economy
Economic riots and supply chain challenges (especially around food)
Signs of military discipline eroding ***
New groups or insurgents in (main) Pakistan (Sindh and Punjab - including a rise in religious militancy especially in Punjab)
Garage sale of national assets
Hastening and departure of intelligentsia and brain drain
Pakistan crisis becoming an international "NEWS" item (by design) and potentially UN level discussions around safety of Pakistan's Nukes especially given the above ***