Asad Umar: The Way Forward, Hyperinflation Risks & Painful Reforms | 343 | TBT

[Trango Towers]

Easy with the generalization there, boyo.

He is not superman that he didn't bend where all others did. People like Fawad Ch who had quite a following. And I just said that it's good that, he didn't join the party. I am just saying, there must have been some compromise for him not joining the new patriotic party.

Boyo loooool

Why didn't IK bend?
Why didn't SMQ bend.

But we all know you would bend

No u were not saying there would some compromise there is not even a hint of that in your original post.

 

[Drexluddin Khan Spiveyzai]

Why didn't IK bend?

IK doesn't bend. He might break but not bend.

Why didn't SMQ bend.

We both know that, don't we?

No u were not saying there would some compromise there is not even a hint of that in your original post.

I left as much to the readers' imagination but I looking back, I may have placed too much faith in the readers.

 

[SaadH]

Not sure how well I trust the opinions of someone who bungled up his year with the economy so bad it needed more rescues

What did he do exactly to "bungle up" the economy?

Uhh - if that kool-aid is economics and pragmatism rather than Ikki Kahn led idioitc “I wont ever go to IMF” idealism..

What was the need to go to IMF in the first place? Shouldn't the mess created by the previous PMLN gov't rest squarely with them? And to not blame PTI for PMLN's blunder is asking for too much?

 

[SQ8]

You might have a point back in 2019 when criticizing that cabinet team was fashionable. But now after looking at outstanding achievements of PDM/GHQ combo as an alternative, you are making yourself look like a ........ (you pick your choice here).

No I am not - if you’re a cultist you can defend what happened in 2019 and then shoot tangents on todays buffoons but I’m not the one looking like whatever you want to imagine - you are.

 

[Crimson Blue]

No I am not - if you’re a cultist you can defend what happened in 2019 and then shoot tangents on todays buffoons but I’m not the one looking like whatever you want to imagine - you are.

Some things are as obvious as day light, so you do not have to be a cultist to see those but you sure has to be blind if you cannot see those. What happened in 2018-2022 was the fastest economic growth in the recent history of Pakistan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667109061983100928

So are you just blind that you cannot see the economic recovery which started in 2019 or you just refuse to see it due to your inner grievance with a certain political figure?

 

[_NOBODY_]

Some things are as obvious as day light, so you do not have to be a cultist to see those. What happened in 2018-2022 whas the fastest economic growth in the recent history of Pakistan.

You just have to be blind if you cannot see it. But If you still cannot see it, I make it easier for you here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667109061983100928

That growth was unsustainable just like the growth that occurred during PMLN's tenure. Things were going really until Hafeez Sheikh got replaced by that retard Shaukat Tarin. This kind of growth always backfires.

 

[RoadRunner401]

Ist point SMQ is 100% Military stooge second point if any of you think Pakistan economy is growing at .029% Then i can sell you brooklyn bridge for really good price. We are in minus with no chance of turn around in sight.

 

[Crimson Blue]

That growth was unsustainable just like the growth that occurred during PMLN's tenure. Things were going really until Hafeez Sheikh got replaced by that retard Shaukat Tarin. This kind of growth always backfires.

Ok. lets see the difference between economic growth under PTI vs PMLN.

1) During 2019-2022, increase in exports, large manufacturing, textile manufacturing and agriculture growth contributed to overall GDP growth. So total economic growth was due to organic manufacturing increase. I can post numbers again if you'd like.

2) During 2013-2018 exports were stagnant, agriculture barely grew and large scale manufacturing was stagnant as well. Most of the increase was from imports and services sector (reselling imported goods) which was obviously unsustainable.

- So how does the economic growth between 2019-22 was unsustainable?

- And what sustainable economic growth formula do you have in mind that Pakistan government should follow?

 

[RoadRunner401]

I am not sure that degree of pessimism is justified. Bangladesh was held up for many years as the world's basket case that has reached Malthusian collapse. But somehow it has turned around and is now a country with hope. May be Pakistan will also find a path of redemption somehow.

Wood, Pakistan got her independence in 1947 Bangladesh got hers in 1971. I understand you are desperate and want PDM to stay in power which is good for India, But you could compare Pakistan to Isreal she also came to be around sametime or China,oh wait that doesnt help the argument you are trying to make.
Bangladesh is 52 years old Pakistan 75 but nice try.

 

[epebble]

Wood, Pakistan got her independence in 1947 Bangladesh got hers in 1971. I understand you are desperate and want PDM to stay in power which is good for India, But you could compare Pakistan to Isreal she also came to be around sametime or China,oh wait that doesnt help the argument you are trying to make.
Bangladesh is 52 years old Pakistan 75 but nice try.

So, your argument is that Pakistan is lost cause and will join the illustrious ranks of Somalia, Sudan, Haiti etc.? May be. I thought there is still a smidgen of hope left and all is not lost. Let's see. As a wise man once said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Crimson Blue

So how does the economic growth between 2019-22 was unsustainable?

You could look at the debt levels (both domestic and external) to begin with. And the CAD for FY 2021-22.

Regards

 

[Olympus81]

Economic policy making is a delicate balance. More so, in Pakistan’s case. To jumpstart growth one has to keep one eye on CAD. You might as well go down the route of CAD to 0 and call is sustainable while the country’s economic growth is near 0%.

In my opinion, its intellectual dishonesty calling PTI’s economic growth unsustainable. 3.5 years is no where a timeframe to gauge whether it was sustainable or not. Well in a way, atleast the detractors admit that there was economic growth in PTI’s time. That’s a good start.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Olympus81

For developing countries, a balance has to be maintained between growth, savings rate and CAD. Problem with PAK is that savings rate is really poor - 15%. As a thumb rule for every 1% additional output you need 5% savings/capital formation. Given that, it is not in Pakistan's interest to grow at more than 3% (15/5) unless you are able to rope in large amounts of FDI (in the form of equity and not debt).

The corresponding numbers for IND/BD is around 25-30%- so their natural growth rate is capped at 5-6%.

Regards

 

[_NOBODY_]

Ok. lets see the difference between economic growth under PTI vs PMLN.

1) During 2019-2022, increase in exports, large manufacturing, textile manufacturing and agriculture growth contributed to overall GDP growth. So total economic growth was due to organic manufacturing increase. I can post numbers again if you'd like.

2) During 2013-2018 exports were stagnant, agriculture barely grew and large scale manufacturing was stagnant as well. Most of the increase was from imports and services sector (reselling imported goods) which was obviously unsustainable.

- So how does the economic growth between 2019-22 was unsustainable?

- And what sustainable economic growth formula do you have in mind that Pakistan government should follow?

Any kind of growth that depletes your reserves is unsustainable. Look at Vietnam, it's economic growth increases it's reserves instead of depleting them. It's better to grow slowly and fix your fundamentals then grow your economy unsustainably. Both PMLN and PTI tried to grow the economy at a high rate despite knowing that it will bankrupt Pakistan and instead of apologizing for it, both parties have the audacity to brag about this so-called "growth".

 

[Crimson Blue]

@Crimson Blue

So how does the economic growth between 2019-22 was unsustainable?

You could look at the debt levels (both domestic and external) to begin with. And the CAD for FY 2021-22.

Regards

The reason CAD was high during fiscal year 2021-22 was mainly due to a spike in international inflation. Prices of crude oil, shipping charges and metals were through the roof. Now those prices have normalized, so CAD would have not been that high by now.

In addition government was eyeing $35 billion of total exports during year 2022-23 ($5 billion increase yoy) which would have offset the CAD further.

And by the trajectory of the exports growth, CAD would have been zero by the end of 2024.

Slowing the organic economic growth is silly for the country who has been in perpetual economic depression.

And as far as debt goes, if your economy is growing faster than debt, then its ok. Problem starts when you GDP is growing slower than your debt.

Any kind of growth that depletes your reserves is unsustainable. Look at Vietnam, it's economic growth increases it's reserves instead of depleting them. It's better to grow slowly and fix your fundamentals then grow your economy unsustainably.

You have the right idea about Vietnam but you might be listening too much to Pakistani so called financial experts on T.V shows. Those experts have 2 goals. 1) Present things in a complicated way to make finance & economy issues look harder to understand . 2) Always criticize every economic policy to give an impression that they know some hidden formula that no one else knows.

Vietnam increased her reserves by growing exports. The only magic bullet in economy is organic manufacturing growth. And organic manufacturing growth is the only fundamental that matters. Everything else (including debt & CAD) are secondary issues. If you are growing your exports $5 billion per year, thats extra $5 billion that you did not have last year.