All Clear: India To Sign Deal For 36 Rafales This Month!!!!!!!!

[Blue Marlin]

Source Based Info:

1. The deal is for 36+18
2. India has assured a minimum of 80+ flyaway in increments bought from Merignac plan
3. The 50% plan offset under DPP 2016 is the route for MII
4. The IN has requested MOD for IAC 1 modified type 2 more carriers and IAC2 type 2 carriers. IAC1 modified version will carry 2 squadrons of Rafale M. Coupled with land based training and needs is normally totalled 1.5 - 2 x the ACC birds so around 50 birds per IAC1 mod type is planned for purchase. This need implies 100 Rafale M straight forward and perhaps another 1-2 squads for shore based totalling 120-140 odd Rafale M for conventional carriers upto 2030.
5. MOD has not approved this plan as of now and has indicated a detailed meeting soon.
6. IAC 2 N propulsion plans may add either another 100-150 odd rafales at 3 squadrons per carrier with land based reserves all together totaling approx 8 squardrons. USA has offerred F35 for such numbers with customisations
7. IAC2 aircraft decision not yet taken and discussion for a suitable package underway negotiated with both Dassault and LM
8. IAF has defined SFC need 80+ Rafales and 6 squadrons for activities totaling close to 190

Awaiting more concrete information

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @SR-91 @anant_s
India may become a much larger user of Rafale as its evidently clear that 5th Gen program will come much closer to 2027-2030 timeline giving a opportunity of 12-15 years to upgrade every depletion of squadron strength.


In anticipation for order , Dassault has started working for Indian order from June 2015. The original order was suppose to happen in August 2015 end. This is as per Ex Dassault people in forums

so this would mean that the sale is the first of a few block orders?

also the last paragraph. dassault continues building the jets regardless of who its for either the french air force or for export. from my understanding it takes 18 months (approx) from raw materials to finished product. even if hypothetically india canceled the order, they will be sent else where. remember the eygpt fiasco? they wanted rafales asap, so jets destined for the french air force which were nearly complete had to be modified to be sent to eygpt.
thats me being picky, dont take it personally.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

I'm not sure if AMCA is going to be a reality. Eventually LCA Mark 2, Rafale and FGFA will fulfill almost all requirements of IAF and then UCAV will start to make their presence felt.
AMCA might start looking redundant thought.
@Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA

As harsh it may sound we dont have technology of 5th Gen with us. Nor its under R&D atm. So if its available in the market and can be bought then its different. I doubt that any country would sell 5th Gen technology modules to be integrated in a Indian AMCA project and let India have a 5th Gen bird. The only way is inhouse R&D which will take at least 15-20 years for delivering the whole technology for AMCA to be developed and and fulfill IAF/IN needs.

A part of the program can be bought via FGFA project but that itself is delayed as the main engine and Indian variant with integration of French and Israeli subsystems is at least a decade away. Again i doubt Russia may fully allow all tech integration into AMCA unless we pay a good sizeable amount as R&D cost sharing their Russian expenses.

That coupled with present MIC state of our country is not mature enough to handle a 5th Gen high end fighter. The pvt sector MIC for LCA itself is being setup properly now. The maturity of that set up and results itself will demonstrate the ability to further evolve the MIC to handle a more ambitious project.HAL is more or less already occupied fully with LCA project and upgrading Su30 MKI to Super Su30 standards later to FGFA program partner in a JV with a pvt sector company

We can do it but then get ready to invest say $2-3 Bn every year for next 15 years and dont ask question about results for next decade at least.. Its a tough task for any government when stakes are so high and considerable issues are there which cannot be out rightly solved.

so this would mean that the sale is the first of a few block orders?

also the last paragraph. dassault continues building the jets regardless of who its for either the french air force or for export. from my understanding it takes 18 months (approx) from raw materials to finished product. even if hypothetically india canceled the order, they will be sent else where. remember the eygpt fiasco? they wanted rafales asap, so jets destined for the french air force which were nearly complete had to be modified to be sent to eygpt.
thats me being picky, dont take it personally.

Yes sir, you are correct on both the things..

Dassault says besides India they are hopeful of 3 more deals this year.. (4 for whole year)

 

[Abingdonboy]

Source Based Info:

1. The deal is for 36+18
2. India has assured a minimum of 80+ flyaway in increments bought from Merignac plan
3. The 50% plan offset under DPP 2016 is the route for MII
4. The IN has requested MOD for IAC 1 modified type 2 more carriers and IAC2 type 2 carriers. IAC1 modified version will carry 2 squadrons of Rafale M. Coupled with land based training and needs is normally totalled 1.5 - 2 x the ACC birds so around 50 birds per IAC1 mod type is planned for purchase. This need implies 100 Rafale M straight forward and perhaps another 1-2 squads for shore based totalling 120-140 odd Rafale M for conventional carriers upto 2030.
5. MOD has not approved this plan as of now and has indicated a detailed meeting soon.
6. IAC 2 N propulsion plans may add either another 100-150 odd rafales at 3 squadrons per carrier with land based reserves all together totaling approx 8 squardrons. USA has offerred F35 for such numbers with customisations
7. IAC2 aircraft decision not yet taken and discussion for a suitable package underway negotiated with both Dassault and LM
8. IAF has defined SFC need 80+ Rafales and 6 squadrons for activities totaling close to 190

Awaiting more concrete information

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @SR-91 @anant_s
India may become a much larger user of Rafale as its evidently clear that 5th Gen program will come much closer to 2027-2030 timeline giving a opportunity of 12-15 years to upgrade every depletion of squadron strength.


In anticipation for order , Dassault has started working for Indian order from June 2015. The original order was suppose to happen in August 2015 end. This is as per Ex Dassault people in forums

300++ Rafales? Bold predictions my friend but naturally would be a HUGE MII coup.

I certainly am sure Rafales under MII will be a reality, the numbers are unclear (but they will have to be large to justify a brand new production line).

+ 80 Rafales for the IAF being built in the Merignac plant whilst the Indian production line is raised would be an optimal strategy to get these birds into service asap and arrest the severe ongoing SQN depletion.

Don't go crazy . 36 at this stage and possibly +18 is the final count for Rafale in indian military . Since more than that will jeopardize our indigenous fighter program for next two decades .

Haha what? Nonsense. 126-189 was always the minimum number of Rafales the IAF wanted, there is no link to the LCA/AMCA or even FGFA.

I'm not sure if AMCA is going to be a reality. Eventually LCA Mark 2, Rafale and FGFA will fulfill almost all requirements of IAF and then UCAV will start to make their presence felt.
AMCA might start looking redundant thought.
@Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA

AMCA will be pursued for long term industrial benefits and to replace the Mirage 2000s, Jaguar DARIN III and MiG-29UPGs in the long term. The Rafales are for immediate requirements to replace the MiG-21s and MiG-27s and will address the inevitable shortfall coming with delays in the FGFA project.

 

[[Bregs]]

Nothing short of 108 rafales will do for IAF, what remains to be seen is how the make in india deal of this fighter aircraft progresses

 

[Manas]

Haha what? Nonsense. 126-189 was always the minimum number of Rafales the IAF wanted, there is no link to the LCA/AMCA or even FGFA.

You don't get every thing you want . Simple .
It wasn't not case the IAF would have been flying Rafales now . Every time i read numbers like 126 and above i laugh since its fanboy pipe dream that would never realize .

54 is the maximum realist number for IAF Rafales , same as the number of Mirage 2000 IAF currently has in its inventory .

 

[Spectre]

There will be AMCA Mk1 to Mk4 which will have a,b,c,d in for each number. Final ASQR will be the TiE fighter which can launched from an Imperial Class Destroyer. And flown by clones.

Why you tell lies? India getting X-Wings.

 

[Abingdonboy]

You don't get every thing you want . Simple .
It wasn't not case the IAF would have been flying Rafales now . Every time i read numbers like 126 and above i laugh since its fanboy pipe dream that would never realize .

You realise the MMRCA was for 126 aircraft ans was ONLY cancelled on technical grounds (negotiations collapsed) not because the IAF was being unrealistic. So how it is a "pipe dream" I will never know, the 126-189 figure has NEVER changed and in fact with the LCA induction being pushed back and FGFA nowhere to be seen the urgency to induct the Rafale is greater today than it has ever been.

54 is the maximum realist number for IAF Rafales , same as the number of Mirage 2000 IAF currently has in its inventory .

The Mirage 2000s were bought in the 1980s when India's economy/defence budget was but a fraction of what it is today. The IAF today is the 4th largest in the world, in a decade India will be the 5th/4th largest economy, in 15 years the third. There is no case for equating the Mirage 2000 procurement for the Rafale's- apples and organges.

 

[Grevion]

@PARIKRAMA What is the current state of AMCA? I might have missed the news but the last I heard was that the govt. was to clear the full funding for the project at the end of 2015. There were news of funding being released for the UCAV project but none for the AMCA.
Thanks in advance.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

TBH the North Korea Nuke test itself will create heightened tensions in SCS. To contain and protect SKorea who may also wish to seek nuclear weapons to bring in parity with North and feel secured, USA to dissuade will increase troops from present 28K odd to much higher number coupled with advance ballistic SAMs (Patriot and THAAD). We may see far more patrolling and perhaps 2 CBGs in that region.

Coupled with Shino Abe pushing for military expansion which the pacifist Japan has resisted but in view of the threat from North Korea and Raising Nuclear tensions, the military expansion of Japanese forces stands assured for Abe.

This single development will see a far greater engagement vs a vs the issue of North Korea and militarisation of the region..

All that is bad news for China as effectively the military buildup they expected over 2 decades will now be completed in just years bcz of a N threat.

Thats why India should stay away from SCS.. Its too hot to handle now.. Better avoid it for finalising plans for Indian Ocean.

Excellent analysis & spot on.bravo!!

 

[anant_s]

Offtopic:
This is about Fifth generation fighter concept.
Strangely other than some NATO allies, that are willing to purchase F-35, big European military powers don't seem to pursuing any VLO program.
Now in longer run say 20-25 years from now, Chinese J 31 and some diluted versions of PAK FA would surely be available to several countries which might be able to afford them. This might affect military balance and campaigns like Rafale bombing in Libya will not be easy tasks to perform.
Secondly, Russia would want to flex its muscle again in Eastern Europe, which makes it a case for large European powers to develop their own VLO fighters. For some reason they are not.
Now my question is in this environment and Indian context, is J 20 the only only threat India is perceiving right now?
This might answer why government has actually agreed to devote lion's share of funds to Rafale while waiting for PAK FA to mature.
@Abingdonboy @Oscar @Taygibay

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@PARIKRAMA What is the current state of AMCA? I might have missed the news but the last I heard was that the govt. was to clear the full funding for the project at the end of 2015. There were news of funding being released for the UCAV project but none for the AMCA.
Thanks in advance.

Still awaiting to see light of the day Sir..
Not sure if we have funds available uptill March 2016 post acquisition of other systems/platforms for such a project..
Sadly, a large part of Defense budget is being consumed for Personnel expenses (serving and retiring).
Another issue is DAC approved SSN projects that money is earmarked and per year tranche is already kept aside.
Implying black projects gets higher priority over new projects of other categories

 

[Super Falcon]

How many times you finalise and sign the same deal get over it i thought modi in french visit signed it

 

[anant_s]

How many times you finalise and sign the same deal get over it i thought modi in french visit signed it

Sir,
that was an agreement showing In Principle willingness to buy.
A final deal is a legally binding process that will allow France to supply fighters under some set of commercial rules.
However considering the mess that was left after MMRCA debacle, signing a binding agreement in less than an year after PM Modi's visit to France is pretty quick.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

Offtopic:
This is about Fifth generation fighter concept.
Strangely other than some NATO allies, that are willing to purchase F-35, big European military powers don't seem to pursuing any VLO program.
Now in longer run say 20-25 years from now, Chinese J 31 and some diluted versions of PAK FA would surely be available to several countries which might be able to afford them. This might affect military balance and campaigns like Rafale bombing in Libya will not be easy tasks to perform.
Secondly, Russia would want to flex its muscle again in Eastern Europe, which makes it a case for large European powers to develop their own VLO fighters. For some reason they are not.
Now my question is in this environment and Indian context, is J 20 the only only threat India is perceiving right now?
This might answer why government has actually agreed to devote lion's share of funds to Rafale while waiting for PAK FA to mature.
@Abingdonboy @Oscar @Taygibay

This actually is something that has gone unobserved by many defence experts.Not only are there no such platforms in the planning stage by France & the nations which make up the Eurofighter consortium , than the other prominent members of western Europe / NATO have plumbed for the F-35.

I believe it's good for India.If the Rafale deal does mature in a few years into the nos thrown by @PARIKRAMA & @Abingdonboy , we'd have a full fledged 4.5 gen industry & an alternative partner for AMCA or a 5 th Gen fighter assuming the FGFA programme is stillborn ( this bit of info will require 2-3 years to confirm ).

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Offtopic:
This is about Fifth generation fighter concept.
Strangely other than some NATO allies, that are willing to purchase F-35, big European military powers don't seem to pursuing any VLO program.
Now in longer run say 20-25 years from now, Chinese J 31 and some diluted versions of PAK FA would surely be available to several countries which might be able to afford them. This might affect military balance and campaigns like Rafale bombing in Libya will not be easy tasks to perform.
Secondly, Russia would want to flex its muscle again in Eastern Europe, which makes it a case for large European powers to develop their own VLO fighters. For some reason they are not.
Now my question is in this environment and Indian context, is J 20 the only only threat India is perceiving right now?
This might answer why government has actually agreed to devote lion's share of funds to Rafale while waiting for PAK FA to mature.
@Abingdonboy @Oscar @Taygibay

With honesty if you look for a span of say next 25 years, most of our old fleet would have retired even after MLUs...
The MKI if you say has a life of max 40 years with MLU, it implies the initial inducted birds may see retirement too..
This leaves a very precarious position for us as other than the leftover MKI, FGFAs planned, LCA and Rafale may become the major strength of IAF. The only other addition could be AMCA discussed later.

Rafale may not be completely a legacy fighter with 5th gen birds all around or downgraded 5th gen birds.As the platform continues to upgrade to be relevant especially since France has not opted for any 5th Gen program implying they are sure to upgrade the capabilities of rafale to some what similar levels. So engaging say newer frontiers with other modern jets or downgraded from 5th Gen platform will not be too much of an issue for rafale.. It should IMHO fight in a equal footing if not without a advantage. The F3R2 program earlier called F4 in 2023-25 timeline is just the first of the steps.. Its continuous evolution program will definitely improve Rafale much higher than planned Su30 MKI super 30 standard program any day.

A VLO fighter in concept was only when the radar technology was not that advanced. In reality with the newer capable AESA radars in different bands, the VLO as a concept itself is being challenged. Especially since VLO birds essentially are spending much longer in hangar then in air and are costly to maintain (Eg RAM coating usage again and again)

As i had posted earlier, the VLO concept as per western ideology seems to be more of Director role where it uses information access from different platforms along with its own sensor to direct "actors" which are non VLO/LO/Normal jets to handle a battle . A director directing a move with other casts.

The Russian concept seems more to rely closer to LO and compromise a bit for actor role as frontline fighter and use quasi director role for some advantage. Its as if the director and lead actor of the movie being the same. So you can see the role, responsibility puts it in between position.

If i look from Indian program angle, India does have an ambition for a VLO director to augment LO actors like FGFA and Rafales for air superiority and DPSA missions. That program is the AMCA. IF you go by the brochure its almost like F35 characteristics and borrows heavily the best of every known 5th Gen bird information.

The threats in true sense is not the J Series rather the humongous numbers advantage of Chinese AF. If you see they have over 400 4th Gen fighters and in 25 years that can easily double that number. True a VLO Director very well use the JXXs 4th Gen as rookies/pawns in the game of chess as opening move and then cherry pick other higher end closer to 4.5+/5th Gen birds to further the annihilation of IAF fleet by war of attrition.

But the question to ask is will India and China really have a situation of conflict or continued hostility. I see economic competition but inter dependency. Perhaps thats why IAF may never have more than max 1000 jets or say 50 odd squadrons at any time of life.. The threat perception in the coming world may not be from the countries like China or Pakistan.. It will be more from Rogue regimes if any.. So fleet will be more for deterrence and posture rather than actual usage..thats my thots really.