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AirBlue Commercial Aircraft Crashes in Islamabad

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CRASH SCENE: Rescue workers searched for survivors after an Airblue jet carrying 152 people veered off course in monsoon rains and crashed near Islamabad, Pakistan, Wednesday, killing everyone on board.
 
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Rescue workers search the wreckage at the site of the crash of an Airblue passenger plane on the outskirts of Islamabad

---------- Post added at 02:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:27 AM ----------

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Officials at a public information centre at answer phones at the Benazir Bhutto International Airport after an Airblue passenger plane crashed on the outskirts of Islamabad.
 
This aircraft involved in the accident, registered under AP-BJB, was MSN (Manufacturer Serial Number) 1218, on 28 July 2010
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This aircraft involved in the accident, registered under AP-BJB, was MSN (Manufacturer Serial Number) 1218, on 28 July 2010
 
Reference Document on the Pakistan Crash
Of course condolences to all affected by this crash; and of course, as with nearly all such disasters, it will take a while to figure out what actually occurred. For roundup of first reactions, see this Atlantic Wire item. But as a basic reference document, it's worth being aware of the info shown below. It is a scan, from an aviator in Pakistan, of a Jeppesen approach plate* for the airport in Islamabad where the crash occurred. This is the approach -- ILS DME Runway 30 -- the plane was reportedly attempting when it crashed.
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What this shows and why it matters:
- Nothing in and of itself. It's just a basic document for understanding the airport and one of its "instrument approaches," which planes would use to land in bad weather;

- It helps put in perspective one analysis in a Pakistani newspaper (also quoted in Atlantic Wire), which made it sound as if the pilots might have been doing something rash or unsafe with a "circling" landing.
This analysis was
:
If you are using runway 12** as it seems (the Murree road side) there is no ILS [instrument landing system]. The ILS is on runway 30 (the opposite side). So the procedure (which I never thought was safe) is you fly the ILS to 30 and then you break off and turn right and fly parallel to the Margalla hills and then turn back in and land on 12. It's not a circle but more of a race-track pattern.

You may ask why not have the aircraft turn left rather than right towards the Margalla Hills. The reason is that on the left of runway 30 is Dhamial Air Base, GHQ and so on and as far as I remember that is all so-called "Restricted" airspace. You cannot fly over it.

Final point, when you are flying parallel to the Margalla Hills, you are required to keep the airport on your left in sight. So I can visualize the captain in the left seat looking left. Maybe the [flight officer] was flying and craning his neck too. They just seem to have drifted into the Margalla Hills -- perhaps because of high winds. They lost what is called "Situational Awareness". Basically they did not know where they were.


Well, maybe. The bottom pane on the approach chart shows the "decision altitude," or "minimum descent altitude," for the airplane under different circumstances. Basically this is how close to the ground the airplane is allowed to get while relying strictly on instrument guidance. If the pilots cannot see the ground (or runway lights etc -- there are elaborate rules) by that point, they have to abort the approach and execute a "missed approach," also known as "going around," in which they climb away from the runway and then try again or head somewhere else.

In the best circumstances, with the plane headed for a "straight-in" landing in the same direction as the approach, this ILS procedure would allow them to get within 309 feet of the ground purely on instrument guidance. But for a "circle to land," approach, in which the plane would intend to land in the opposite direction from the approach, the minimum descent altitude could be as high as 842 feet above the ground. It would be illegal to go any lower than that if they couldn't see.


In a "circling" approach, the airplane would descend from the southeast -- the lower right of the chart shown above -- and then, once the pilots saw the runway, fly parallel alongside it to the other end (upper left of chart), at which point they would turn around and land in a northwest-to-southeast direction. You do this when the instrument approach guidance works only in one direction, but the winds favor a landing the other way.

On the one hand, this kind of landing is by definition more complicated than a "straight-in," with the runway right in front of you the whole time. On the other hand, the idea of flying alongside the runway in one direction ("downwind"), and then reversing course (turning to "base" and "final") to land in the opposite direction is a perfectly normal way to operate in good weather.*** And according to the rules for "circle to land," you can't attempt this kind of landing unless you have a clear view of the runway the whole time. Which makes it seem unlikely that the pilots would not have noticed if the plane were just drifting off to the side, into the hills. But for now that's just hypothesis too. For a discussion of other hypotheses, see the BBC here.

Bad weather is ultimately responsible for most of what goes wrong in aviation.**** Fog or clouds that keep pilots from seeing the runway (the Polish airline tragedy), strong or gusty winds that complicate the process of touching down, icing in below-freezing clouds (Colgan in Buffalo), severe turbulence from thunderstorms (probably the Air France flight over the Atlantic), etc. From first reports of this incident, weather appears to have played a big part, but this is all tentative. For the moment, if you read about a "circling approach" being involved, look to this chart to understand what that means.
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* Jeppesen plates are proprietary and copyrighted, also, this is an out of date version of the plate -- thus my helpful photo-shopped addition of the "Not for Navigation" warnings!

** Runways have numbers according to their compass direction. Runway 12, in this case, has a compass direction of 120 degrees -- roughly southeast. The runway number is the compass direction divided by 10. But since nearly all runways can be used in both directions, the same strip of asphalt has two names, depending on which way you're heading. These opposite directions are of course separated by 180 compass degrees (half of a 360 degree circle). If you're headed southeast on the runway at Islamabad, you are on Runway 12. If you're on that exact same runway but headed the other way, the compass direction is 300 degrees (northwest), and you are on Runway 30. And if you are taxiing at the Islamabad airport, you would see markers pointing toward "Runway 12/30" -- the same strip of asphalt, with two different names.

*** This is known as "flying the pattern" and is how everyone learns to fly. Big airliners typically don't have to do this - though at Dulles airport, in particular, when the winds are from the north, I've often been on airliners that had to head far south ("downwind,") and then make two right turns ("base" and "final") before landing headed north.

**** For another time: the different genesis of commercial-airline versus private-pilot accidents, with flat-out pilot error playing a far larger part in the latter case. But there too weather makes a huge difference.
 
Oh man!! So sad. My condolences to the family of deceased. May Allah bless them to heaven.

"inna lillahi wa inna ilaihi'raji'oon"!
 
Well I must say that I am quite surprised that CIA/Blackwater/ISI has been blamed for this yet by the Mullahs Company.
 
Shocked and numbed

KRAKOW: One couple – Aisha and Mohammad – on the AirBlue flight were on their way to attend a funeral in Islamabad and had left their children with family in Karachi.

“What will I tell their children now,” cried Aisha’s brother Akhtar while waiting at the airport for news.

Wednesday’s plane crash sent shock waves through Karachi. It seemed as if everyone knew by at least six degrees of separation one person affected by the tragedy. The pain of the relatives stuck in Karachi was doubled by the lack of timely information and their inability to get to Islamabad quick enough.

Karachi lost six brainy young men and women who were part of the Youth Parliament Pakistan (YPP) and had gone to attend a parliamentary session in the capital. They were Hassan Javed Khan, Syeda Rabab Zehra Naqvi, Prem Chand, Bilal Jamaee, Owais bin Laiq and Syed Arsalan Ahmad.

Syed Shan-e-Hussain Naqvi, who was supposed to be on the flight, told The Express Tribune that a distant cousin and fellow youth parliamentarian Rabab Naqvi was a straight-A student.
“I was so shocked. Rabab’s father called me up and started crying. ‘My daughter is gone’,” he said.

Hussain said she was one of the best delegates in the youth parliament and was an all-rounder. “In the last session, she led a no-confidence motion against the youth parliament’s prime minister. The government changed and there had to be a new premier.”
That new prime minister was Hassan Javed Khan. He was on the plane and was to join Oxford University this fall.

Rabab’s father Muhammad Murtaza had spent time with her the evening before. “She was really happy last night,” he said. “She kept on reading till late at night and came to me and asked to pray for her. I want to go to Islamabad and see my daughter or her body myself.”

Bagwan Das, the first cousin of Prem Chand, who hailed from Sukkur told The Express Tribune that he had dropped his cousin at the airport at 7 am. “I had just reached home when we saw the news on the TV and rushed back to the airport.”

According to Bagwan Das he was the only educated person among their group of friends. “We could not sleep all the night, Chand was telling me stories of Islamabad and parliament and we went to the seashore to enjoy the weather,” he said.

Ten members of the Youth Parliament were supposed to board the flight, but only six did. Syed Shan-e-Hussain Naqvi had a confirmed seat on that plane, but decided in the morning not to go as he had to take care of some important meetings. “My parents did not even know that I had not taken the flight because I spent the night at my friend’s house,” he said. “I called to tell my parents that I didn’t go, they could not believe it. My mother just couldn’t stop crying.”
Hussain was attending phone calls since Wednesday morning as his name was on the flight passenger list released to the media.

“People are congratulating me on being alive. But my friends are dead. I don’t know whether to be happy or sad.”

Former federal sports minister Mir Mehran Khan Bijrani and his son Salman had confirmed seats but got late and missed the flight. Mehran’s son Irfan said that when they reached the airport, the flight had just taken off. So they took the next flight to Lahore, instead.

Saeed Minhas, was one of the 10 people who had reserved a ticket but didn’t go. The Gulshan-e-Iqbal resident said that the family have arranged for sadaqa and khairat in his name. “My wife called me crying,” he said. “I asked why, and she said the plane had crashed.”
Published in The Express Tribune, July 29th, 2010.

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Ace footballer was going to Berkeley


KARACHI: A University of California, Berkeley student from Karachi Grammar School was among the victims of the plane crash on Wednesday. Nineteen-year-old Misha Dawood was on her way to attend the National Women Football Championship being held in Islamabad.

“It was really hard, too hard to convince my team to get on with the game and play without their Maradona,” said Diya football club’s owner Saadia Sheikh while talking to The Express Tribune. “The girls didn’t want to play but I told them that the only way we can pay our tribute to Misha is by winning the match.”
Diya Football Club’s match against Punjab FC went ahead on Wednesday. Misha had been on her way to catch up with the team that had left for the championship on July 24. She took the first flight of the day to be there before the match started at 5 pm at Jinnah Stadium.

Misha was an excellent athlete, with a smile on her face and a friendly attitude; she was a treat to have around, Sheikh said. The mid-fielder was known as the team’s Maradona and was very excited about playing in the championship matches when Sheikh spoke to her on the phone two days ago.
The athletic captain of her school house when she attended Karachi Grammar School, Misha had just completed her first year at the University of California, Berkeley. However, she had a special place for football in her life, she would fly to Pakistan to meet her family in Karachi and participate with Diya Club at the national level every year.

She became a regular with the club in 2008, when her hattrick against Sindh Soccerites led her team to win 6-0 in the Inter-Club Women’s Football Championship.

Diya FC went on to win against the defending champion Punjab FC 2-0 and cruised into the quarter final, but without her, dedicating the win to her name.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 29th, 2010
 
Man this is really sad. May Allah grant them Heaven Inshallah.

We found survivors? Then we'll have an update on what happened soon.
 

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