Drebin
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@Taygibay,
Hello dear sir, how are you doing? I'm sorry for leaving the discussion incomplete as I had Diploma exams. Anyway, you made some very interesting and knowledgeable points which not only ans the quarries but, also serve as the eye opener and, increases the thirst for attaining more knowledge. I really thank you for that .
And so continuing on with our discussion, I'd like to make a few points by quoting text from your post and one other member for reference. And, please bear with me as its going to be a very long reply.
WOW! Reading the comparative numbers for JF-17 Block-I being equivalent to 80% to F-16C/D Block 50/52+ at such a low cost is indeed an achievement of Titanic proportions. And not only that, rather development and integration of the future blocks as per PAF's needs means the A/C could end up becoming one extremely lethal, mean machine attuned for deadly pilots of PAF and technologically being right up there with elites of the aviation Industry. This in itself becomes a massive selling point and, things start to make sense in regards to potential global market as well as in pakistan's immediate neighbourhood. This project has indeed been a boon and blessing for pakistan, helping its infant Aerospace Industry usher in new era and writing a new chapter in its history. I assume the Pakistani input in Chengdu J-10 project which later evolved it into J-10B is the direct result of experience gained by PAC, during 15 years -and counting- of work on JF-17 project?
I agree with the outlined engagement scenerio of Thunder facing the said A/Cs in Indian inventory and, India winning in an isolated air conflict purely on the attrition of numbers. But what I do not agree with is India stocking and reserving the 4++ and 5th Gen: A/C ONLY for China. Although this arguement seems quite valid in reference to Indian ICBMs but, not for jets as old air conflict strategies have been completely discarded in light of new technologies, weapon systems etc available. And if not that then, IAF knows for the fact that PAF is capable of inflicting some serious damage even in conventional warfare as it is now, which could have detrimental effects on its economy in the long term leaving her incapable of waging war vs China. Then why would India risk absorbing such devastation, instead of using its shiny new jets which could drastically reduce the casualties as well as cost of war? That in my humble opinion, doesn't make any sense at all.
And speaking of China, why on earth would it ever want to go to war with India anyway? Doesn't it got enough hostile neighbours of her own ? Its in China's best interests to keep India firmly focused on us! And its actually India which is becoming overly ambitious too quickly, too soon. Of course, there's a huge part of WEST in it too but, let's leave it for another discussion .
We can't sell them, we can't live without them. LOL! Goes to tell you the kind of relations we enjoy with one of our oldest ally, USA. Thus, I'm inclined to share the sentiments of my fellow Pakistanis regarding sanctions prone American equipment and, need for indigenisation and diversification.
I'm in total agreement with you sir but, a few recent diplomatic breakthroughs do create openings and opportunities that should be cashed in aggressively. Like the recent Iran Nuclear Deal, which America went ahead with in face of severe opposition from Israel and Saudi Arabia. It resulted in loosening of sanctions and resumptions of dialogue decades after the Iranian revolution. It is indicative of US's will to pursue better relationships with the oil rich country to better support and sustain its own dwindling economy which recently went into "shut down." Furthermore, the fact that USA has showed its interest to divert its NATO supplies via Iran instead of Pakistan is another indication of an effort to improve diplomatic ties. Therefore, I think its paramount for Pakistan to take full advantage of the space created to exercise some backdoor diplomatic maneuvering for strong lobbying of Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project, which we need not just to overcome our crippling energy crisis. But, also as a foundation for building new, sustainable, long term relationship with Iran encompassing cooperation at strategic level.
So far stars seems to be aligning well for Pakistan as at recent ECO summit, Islamabad successfully engaged Tehran which agreed for renegotiation of terms and tariff of IP Gas Pipeline. Additionally, there has been news(rumors?) flying around of an anonymous state which isn't a traditional friend of Pakistan, providing 1 $Billion for construction of the pipeline inside our borders. If I was to assume anything then, I'd say that this is all happening with the blessings of United States.
Thus, contradicting your point, Iran may very well become one of the biggest future potential market for JF-17. Of course, this is all theory and too many uncertainties but, like you said yourself,"It is with vision that one builds tomorrow. Anything else is merely growing old."
Furthermore, peace is in our best interest as striving for it today is the only guaranteed way of reaping its dividends tomorrow in form of prosperity. And its equally true for our another neighbour, Afghanistan. Speaking of whom, you made some very excellent and compelling points as having strong trade and defence ties is the only way of attaining mutual understanding and lasting peace. And last week's visit of Premier Nawaz to kabul where he offered greater and active Pakistani cooperation (access to Mulla Brother/peace talks with talibaan etc) as well as support for nation building ($20 Million) is an effort directed towards just that.
Besides, there's no other nation that can play as vital a role in building peaceful and stable Afghanistan as Pakistan, because of our cultural similarities, geology, history and religion. And warranting the stability, pakistan can pledge an utmost support in defence which comprise not just military training but, also military hardware at very cost effective budget that include rifles and bullets to tanks and jets.
So ya, Afghanistan could become another very, very lucrative market not just for JF-17s but an array of military hardware.
Apart from that, I am in complete agreement with your three point sell, development and market strategy .
On the side note, I'd like to take this opportunity to ask you two more questions;
Thanks for your time and your and comments of senior members and participators are a source of infinite wisdom. Thanks all.
Peace.
Hello dear sir, how are you doing? I'm sorry for leaving the discussion incomplete as I had Diploma exams. Anyway, you made some very interesting and knowledgeable points which not only ans the quarries but, also serve as the eye opener and, increases the thirst for attaining more knowledge. I really thank you for that .
And so continuing on with our discussion, I'd like to make a few points by quoting text from your post and one other member for reference. And, please bear with me as its going to be a very long reply.
First on the "light" thing. Most numbers for the Thunder are around 80% of the equivalent ones for the Falcon of the blocks owned by Pakistan! The avionics are not superior either? Its only valid superiority is that it allows the PAF to use BVR missiles which is awesome on a national level.
WOW! Reading the comparative numbers for JF-17 Block-I being equivalent to 80% to F-16C/D Block 50/52+ at such a low cost is indeed an achievement of Titanic proportions. And not only that, rather development and integration of the future blocks as per PAF's needs means the A/C could end up becoming one extremely lethal, mean machine attuned for deadly pilots of PAF and technologically being right up there with elites of the aviation Industry. This in itself becomes a massive selling point and, things start to make sense in regards to potential global market as well as in pakistan's immediate neighbourhood. This project has indeed been a boon and blessing for pakistan, helping its infant Aerospace Industry usher in new era and writing a new chapter in its history. I assume the Pakistani input in Chengdu J-10 project which later evolved it into J-10B is the direct result of experience gained by PAC, during 15 years -and counting- of work on JF-17 project?
You should really keep in mind that the JF_17 will likely face TEJAS, MiG-29 or 27 in a war with India, Mirage 2000 at best! The Su-30 and Rafale if/when MMRCA comes thru will be for China? Which then explains why numbers are just about meaningless outside of scenarii and strategic tactical considerations. Let's be honest that if a new war had India and Pakistan facing each other and no one else involved or intervening so that both used all their might, in the air, India would win if only by attrition of numbers of the PAF fighters?
I agree with the outlined engagement scenerio of Thunder facing the said A/Cs in Indian inventory and, India winning in an isolated air conflict purely on the attrition of numbers. But what I do not agree with is India stocking and reserving the 4++ and 5th Gen: A/C ONLY for China. Although this arguement seems quite valid in reference to Indian ICBMs but, not for jets as old air conflict strategies have been completely discarded in light of new technologies, weapon systems etc available. And if not that then, IAF knows for the fact that PAF is capable of inflicting some serious damage even in conventional warfare as it is now, which could have detrimental effects on its economy in the long term leaving her incapable of waging war vs China. Then why would India risk absorbing such devastation, instead of using its shiny new jets which could drastically reduce the casualties as well as cost of war? That in my humble opinion, doesn't make any sense at all.
And speaking of China, why on earth would it ever want to go to war with India anyway? Doesn't it got enough hostile neighbours of her own ? Its in China's best interests to keep India firmly focused on us! And its actually India which is becoming overly ambitious too quickly, too soon. Of course, there's a huge part of WEST in it too but, let's leave it for another discussion .
Moving on to your plan for it.
There are two problems with your idea, IMHoO. First, selling relatively recent US planes is harder than it seems. You'd have to sell these to a nation that the USA fully supports otherwise they'd quickly become useless for lack of support, bombs, parts, etc? Those are rare as if they have the money for it, the US will prefer to sell them new planes or barring that sell them used ones from the USAF?
The second bug is that as long as the USA meaningfully services the F-16s sold to the PAF, they should be kept in function to fight in the scenario outlined above of facing India.
We can't sell them, we can't live without them. LOL! Goes to tell you the kind of relations we enjoy with one of our oldest ally, USA. Thus, I'm inclined to share the sentiments of my fellow Pakistanis regarding sanctions prone American equipment and, need for indigenisation and diversification.
The alternative that I would favor goes towards sales of the JF-17 itself? I did write in the export thread that too much should not be expected but there is a market, you know? Any Nation not wanting to align to RU-China and too poor to get the expensive Western toys ( Raffy-Typhie or even Gripen ) should consider the Thunder. Just think that even the South Africans are finding their Gripens expensive to run? And let's keep in mind that most rich Muslim nations buy Western uber-jets and that selling to Iran would break the bond with America?
From this, we can draw a plan :
1- state a neutral selling strategy : not to rogue states nor religiously driven;
2- plan to use the proceeds to fuel development of the JF-17's blocks thus insuring new (re-)orders;
3- put the rest of the money in the future aircraft of the PAF whether that be a buy or ideally a co-development again but this time on equal footing or with Pakistan as main designer?
That would already be a big and quick step-up! Most countries that tried either failed or took much longer? As for the market itself, Argentina or heck, even Afghanistan could be prospects. Granted that the tensions with your neighbor contradict that last idea but that is in fact one way to subdue them? IE. They'd be relying on **** help and you'd have little to fear from their AF?
Still, elsewhere as in Africa there could be markets opening. As a matter of fact, unless an agreement with China was signed, places on the continent that can't afford J-10s or align to the Chinese would likely be fine with the Thunder for a reasonable self-defence force. In addition to which, if the PAF uses its image of having professional quality pilots, some could be sent along to fly the things as many African nations do not have those?
I know all this seems to run far into the future and that your proposal carries more weight at the moment ( except for selling the F-16s really ) but it is with vision that one builds tomorrow. Anything else is merely growing old?
Talk to you soon, have a great day, Tay.
I'm in total agreement with you sir but, a few recent diplomatic breakthroughs do create openings and opportunities that should be cashed in aggressively. Like the recent Iran Nuclear Deal, which America went ahead with in face of severe opposition from Israel and Saudi Arabia. It resulted in loosening of sanctions and resumptions of dialogue decades after the Iranian revolution. It is indicative of US's will to pursue better relationships with the oil rich country to better support and sustain its own dwindling economy which recently went into "shut down." Furthermore, the fact that USA has showed its interest to divert its NATO supplies via Iran instead of Pakistan is another indication of an effort to improve diplomatic ties. Therefore, I think its paramount for Pakistan to take full advantage of the space created to exercise some backdoor diplomatic maneuvering for strong lobbying of Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project, which we need not just to overcome our crippling energy crisis. But, also as a foundation for building new, sustainable, long term relationship with Iran encompassing cooperation at strategic level.
So far stars seems to be aligning well for Pakistan as at recent ECO summit, Islamabad successfully engaged Tehran which agreed for renegotiation of terms and tariff of IP Gas Pipeline. Additionally, there has been news(rumors?) flying around of an anonymous state which isn't a traditional friend of Pakistan, providing 1 $Billion for construction of the pipeline inside our borders. If I was to assume anything then, I'd say that this is all happening with the blessings of United States.
Thus, contradicting your point, Iran may very well become one of the biggest future potential market for JF-17. Of course, this is all theory and too many uncertainties but, like you said yourself,"It is with vision that one builds tomorrow. Anything else is merely growing old."
Furthermore, peace is in our best interest as striving for it today is the only guaranteed way of reaping its dividends tomorrow in form of prosperity. And its equally true for our another neighbour, Afghanistan. Speaking of whom, you made some very excellent and compelling points as having strong trade and defence ties is the only way of attaining mutual understanding and lasting peace. And last week's visit of Premier Nawaz to kabul where he offered greater and active Pakistani cooperation (access to Mulla Brother/peace talks with talibaan etc) as well as support for nation building ($20 Million) is an effort directed towards just that.
Besides, there's no other nation that can play as vital a role in building peaceful and stable Afghanistan as Pakistan, because of our cultural similarities, geology, history and religion. And warranting the stability, pakistan can pledge an utmost support in defence which comprise not just military training but, also military hardware at very cost effective budget that include rifles and bullets to tanks and jets.
So ya, Afghanistan could become another very, very lucrative market not just for JF-17s but an array of military hardware.
Apart from that, I am in complete agreement with your three point sell, development and market strategy .
On the side note, I'd like to take this opportunity to ask you two more questions;
- What is your opinion of J10-B/FC20 as a combat aircraft overall and vs Pakistani F-16? I'm asking this because there is lots of debate here in this forum for its induction in PAF. And also, I recently read a Chinese member @jack_zx who said, "Chinese want to see J-10B in considerable number before even offering J-20. The money + interest of Chinese companies is in NOT offering Pakistan J-20 unless J-10B is flying with PAF in number." Because,"Any plane operating with PAF is a free marketing for Chinese companies (I was so proud of it when an AVIC personal said it to me in the presence of PAF personal that the world trusts PAFs standards)." For better read/understanding, please visit here. Your comments?
- Its about Chengdu J20 and Shenyang J31 actually, i.e., Which one is better for Pakistan? The reason why I ask this is because, many a member vote for J31 which is a multirole stealth 5th Gen: A/C designed as an alternate for F-35. Whereas, I differ on the basis that EVERYTHING in our inventory so far is bought, designed on this very philosophy and, it'll continue to get even better with future blocks of JF-17 and induction -if ever- of FC20. J20 on the other hand is being designed as 5th Gen: Air Superiority Fighter. Don't you think we've enough of multirole A/C and, its J20 we need particularly to thwart off the threat of HAL FGFA in future or any such aggression via Indian MMRCA?
Thanks for your time and your and comments of senior members and participators are a source of infinite wisdom. Thanks all.
Peace.
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