Afghanistan: As US retreats, India needs plan B

[fd24]

I am posting something i have mentioned before on this forum which happens to be quite relevant to this thread ,

Do Pakistanis really think that Americans after having thousands of their soldiers die in this war will completely abandon this country just to allow things to get back to where they were ?

Do you really think so ? I know you are intelligent enough, they wont.

There is too much at stake in Afghanistan for not only USA but Europe , Iran , Russia and India as well . None of these countries want to see Taliban to become strong in Afghanistan again because that would be a nightmare for them and a paradise for terrorists .

Pakistan alone no matter how much it tries will not be able to counter the influence of all those nations. You know it as well .

You have to deal with one fact and so do all Pakistanis , All the countries above listed will never allow the Taliban to come back to power in Afghanistan again , even if they manage to do that the NATO will be back in Afghanistan in no time and you know how much time it took for them to overthrow the Talib government in 2001 , a few days if i remember correctly ?

Americans have not even left Germany , Japan and Korea completely after many decades during which they faced many recessions , you think they will leave Afghanistan ?

So yeah thats about it . Its better for Pakistan to accept this reality and accept the fact that all of Afg's neighbours will have good relations with them and try to maintain good relations with the Afghan civilian govt. Your support to the Taliban has already alienated the average Afghan , don't make the situation any worse for yourself and help your own cause .

I agree with you but Nick what you must also look at is they simply comes a time when from their perspective. Are they any closer in having completion? Are they any closer to the end of their tour than they were 10 years ago? Can they afford it anymore? There is an election next year and does Obama want this dragging on and on? Is it going to get him back in? Mate its a real sticky dilema for them. Its like they are on a rope bridge and in the middle. Do they go on or do they come back? Is it risky enough to go across?

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

LeT is a Kashmiri phenomenon.....while i cant comment on a banned organization that no longer exists, like all Pakistanis I sympathize with the Kashmiri cause and haven't been shy to admit my moral support to Kashmiri cause.

as for Haqqanis, their leadership and majority of their men are in Afghanistan.....i laugh at you indians because you don't even know the ground realities in Afghanistan; you also conveniently overlook the fact that there are a plethora of taleban and pro-taleban factions in Afghanistan.....Haqqanis are just one fish in the pond.

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

Pakistan Armed Forces are always ready, and trained to fight and kill the enemy.

like any other Armed Forces, really.

the US operation was a rude awakening, one that hurt their interests. They understand why. Unfortunately, the lack of communication between the Pentagon and the State Department is becoming more evident. And in fact, Hillary Clinton blushed and turned red at the same time when she implied that without Pakistani cooperation, ''victory'' in Afghanistan is not attainable. 2 questions that come to my mind are

a.) how do they define victory

b.) why (or rather how CAN) they use media-'diplomacy' with Pakistan and then expect Pakistan to cooperate


Pakistan can retaliate if and whenever the order is given by the government. That applies as much to hindustan as it does to ANY other force in the region --invited or uninvited. I can assure you on that.

I agree. I remember when Pakistani armored/mechanized forces rolled on tanks in Afghanistan after US violated its sovereignty by conducting a raid deep inside Pakistan using Special Op forces on May 2.

Also, PAF has started bombing American outposts in the border area with Pakistan retaliating in response to the latest drone strike in Pakistan territory.

Please stop it! You're just making it worse.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

your weak attempt at sarcasm is amusing. . . and not all for the right reasons.

why should Pakistan have to do those things when in fact the Afghan resistance fighters and the NATO forces are already engaged in their own battles. . .

just a few weeks ago they downed a Chinook. The young chaps fighting in the coalition forces should be home with their families. Not at war with an enemy they don't even know or recognize. An enemy they will fail and be unable to subjugate --as is evident by the surge, and the subsequent rise in attacks against their positions, bases and outposts.








p.s. i remember something about a ''cold start doctrine'' after 10 kids shot up your financial capital.....please stop it first

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

your weak attempt at sarcasm is amusing. . . and not all for the right reasons.

why should Pakistan have to do those things when in fact the Afghan resistance fighters and the NATO forces are already engaged in their own battles. . .

just a few weeks ago they downed a Chinook. The young chaps fighting in the coalition forces should be home with their families. Not at war with an enemy they don't even know or recognize. An enemy they will fail and be unable to subjugate.

We were getting too serious, I just wanted to bring in some humor. Please don't mind.

No respectable nation should use armed groups as an instrument of state policy. No respectable nation should provide safe havens to terrorists operating in other country.

Pakistan does both of them and that is why we are not on the same page.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Afghanistanis seem to be saying that its it ISI who assassinated Rabbani

Kabul to Drop Trilateral Peace Effort - WSJ.com

Beyond ridiculous and not worthy of analysis or discussion. The Pakistani State faced a magnanimous loss when he was killed.

We were getting too serious, I just wanted to bring in some humor. Please don't mind.

No respectable nation should use armed groups as an instrument of state policy. No respectable nation should provide safe havens to terrorists operating in other country.

Pakistan does both of them and that is why we are not on the same page.

blind statements in front of flashing cameras and mics would not suffice.


as i said earlier, Pakistan should (and likely will) maintain its stand, firmly. Very firmly, actually. By the way, your country supported the Northern Alliance which is not exactly a group of peace activists.....though interestingly enough, arms from Northern Alliance are actually making their way into Taleb hands. Welcome to Afghanistan

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

Beyond ridiculous and not worthy of analysis or discussion. The Pakistani State faced a magnanimous loss when he was killed.

You're saying that the deputy national-security adviser of Afghanistan is lying.

You CoAS says Admiral Mullen is lying.

Pakistan also says India is lying.

How can we help?

---------- Post added at 01:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:16 AM ----------

By the way, your country supported the Northern Alliance which is not exactly a group of peace activists.....though interestingly enough, arms from Northern Alliance are actually making their way into Taleb hands. Welcome to Afghanistan

Point noted.

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

I agree with you but Nick what you must also look at is they simply comes a time when from their perspective. Are they any closer in having completion? Are they any closer to the end of their tour than they were 10 years ago? Can they afford it anymore? There is an election next year and does Obama want this dragging on and on? Is it going to get him back in? Mate its a real sticky dilema for them. Its like they are on a rope bridge and in the middle. Do they go on or do they come back? Is it risky enough to go across?

Well to be honest American adventure in Afghanistan has nott been a complete failure , though it is far from a success. They have been able to kill Osama and have made Al qaeda much weaker than it was .

They removed Taliban from power and have made it weaker then it was back in 2001 and the Afghans have finally got a taste of democracy and a little affluence which will go a long way in making that country civilised .

The only failure has been that the Afghan Taliban have not been completely defeated and continue to be strong enough to carry out attacks , that the Americans will take care of through a prolonged existence in Afghanistan( going into decades) and helping train afghan police and troops and providing them the best weapons .

About the elections , I follow the news in America and American boards on the net as well and trust me they don't give a rats' a$$ about what is happening in Afghanistan . Whether Obama wins or loses the next election will depend solely on the state of the unemployment in USA and that has got nothing to do with Afghanistan . Afghnistan is the least of the concerns for the average American .

---------- Post added at 01:22 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:19 AM ----------

LeT is a Kashmiri phenomenon.....while i cant comment on a banned organization that no longer exists, like all Pakistanis I sympathize with the Kashmiri cause and haven't been shy to admit my moral support to Kashmiri cause.

as for Haqqanis, their leadership and majority of their men are in Afghanistan.....i laugh at you indians because you don't even know the ground realities in Afghanistan; you also conveniently overlook the fact that there are a plethora of taleban and pro-taleban factions in Afghanistan.....Haqqanis are just one fish in the pond.

Most LET operatives are from Pakistani AZAD kashmir and Punjab who operate in Kashmir .

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

You're saying that the deputy national-security adviser of Afghanistan is lying.

You CoAS says Admiral Mullen is lying.

Pakistan also says India is lying.

How can we help?[

we fundamentally disagree with statements made by General Mullen......his own White House and State Dept. are distancing themselves from his language as well.

strangely enough, it is only the US and not other NATO countries that are going on and on about the Haqqani faction. This should be looked into, especially since there are NATO member states (US included) who have a line of communication with the Haqqani network. They are in contact with eachother. Even now. Face-saving measures are just for media consumption, for people like yourself.

as for indian lying -- well as archrivals and enemies for 6+ decades we've been doing a lot more to eachother than just ''lying''


what can you do? Be a good neighbour, stay out of our way

don't take actions which would undermine Pakistan or cause harm to Pakistan because that isn't a smart policy at all. Playing with fire can be dangerous.

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

Abu, I guess you realize we don't agree on anything.

Fundamentally this is the problem - I think no country should interfere in the affairs of other countries by proxies. You think there can be exceptions, viz, in Kashmir and Afghanistan.

We're still trying to have better relations with you. Here is today's gift India supports Pakistan’s EU waiver package

B-bye Have a good day!

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Well to be honest American adventure in Afghanistan has nott been a complete failure , though it is far from a success. They have been able to kill Osama and have made Al qaeda much weaker than it was

agreed, but what about Al Qaeda in Yemen; in the Maghreb? Al Qaeda in Central Asia and in African States such as Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea? It's a de-centralized movement, one which has no credibility or much support in the Arab and Muslim world --as witnessed during Revolution such as that in A.R Egypt.

They removed Taliban from power and have made it weaker then it was back in 2001

weaker than what it was in 2001? doubtful...

and the Afghans have finally got a taste of democracy and a little affluence which will go a long way in making that country civilised .

uh huh

The only failure has been that the Afghan Taliban have not been completely defeated and continue to be strong enough to carry out attacks , that the Americans will take care of through a prolonged existence in Afghanistan( going into decades) and helping train afghan police and troops and providing them the best weapons .

NATO has access to the best weapons -- infantry and air support.....they have had access to the best weapons (infantry and air support) for well over the decade during this conflict

noteworthy of mention

the Afghan police and 'army' have little to no discipline; their desertion rates are high and in fact the number of turncoats we have witnessed should raise some level of alarm

About the elections , I follow the news in America and American boards on the net as well and trust me they don't give a rats' a$$ about what is happening in Afghanistan . Whether Obama wins or loses the next election will depend solely on the state of the unemployment in USA and that has got nothing to do with Afghanistan . Afghnistan is the least of the concerns for the average American

the average American realizes, or is starting to realize that this war (like the Iraq war) are unwinnable and in fact have damaged America's image in the world --especially the Muslim world.

and it's actually sad that many of those young men were sent to die for a cause they dont even know or recognize. I have spoken to a few marines who were deployed; they told me they asked themselves every day what the hell they were doing there. They'd whack a few talebs for a few hours (when shot at), have an M.R.E. then call it a day and head back to base. For every one they killed, 5 more took their place. Many of the villages in which they sought information from -- more often than not there was a taleban (or pro taleb) warlord or two who actually controlled the area.

i think America is best served by addressing its real issues -- the domestic ones. Afghanistan is one country that has never been kind to invaders --- your former soviet friends learned it, the hard way of course, as we all know.

Most LET operatives are from Pakistani AZAD kashmir and Punjab who operate in Kashmir .

its an armed Kashmiri resistance movement....they have support in iOk as well, though Kashmiri resistance groups are moving more towards the use of media (especially social media) which I think is a sign of maturity and in fact --far more effective than just ammunitions. This is one reason why facebook and other social network sites are banned in iOk -- but we digress.

 

[Emmie]

In my opinion no plan on Afghanistan suits India... Pakistan and US are the examples.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Abu, I guess you realize we don't agree on anything.

Fundamentally this is the problem - I think no country should interfere in the affairs of other countries by proxies. You think there can be exceptions, viz, in Kashmir and Afghanistan.

We're still trying to have better relations with you. Here is today's gift India supports Pakistan’s EU waiver package

B-bye Have a good day!

we havent agreed on a lot of things in over 6 decades.....but that's okay.

yes, have a good day.

 

[Emmie]

Ok bilal, lets talk about the future of Afghanistan and the Indian role. Lets quickly write some scenarios and discuss from there on

1. America pulls out fully owing to the pressure at home. This means US looses everything that they fought for in Afghanistan - 1% chances

2. America maintains a small presence after 2014 - changing tactics from CI to CT. 98.9% chances
That's what the noises in Washington seem to be saying.

3. America goes into a low level confrontation with Pak. 0.1 % chances

Scenario number 3 seems to be an exaggeration. Let me know, what you know about Haqqanis? USA never bothered to slap sanctions on Haqqanis until past few hours. Interestingly, sanctions do not encompass the whole Haqqani network.

 

[misterme2]

We already know what it is costing the US for gaining such greater "insights". No thanks.

Whatever you are going to loose. Taliban will regroup and focus on India. Simple, join now and get help, or suffer and beg for help...your choice.

---------- Post added at 04:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:58 PM ----------

Pal I think you've got your facts wrong, the Indian state/IA gave been fighting various insurgencies with much success for over 60 years. The insurgencies they have fought have pioneered devestaion and horror, many forint countries look TO IA for help and advice in CI, one US Army general said last year after returning from Afghanistan the India practically wrote the book on CI ops and that was why they needed to be more involved in Afghanistan. IA has pioneered CI ops and has paid harsh lessons in blood, the RR are considered by many to be the finest CI force in the world and many IA schools the best CI schools anywhere. Having said that I don't think committing IA to ops in Afghanistan would do any good and would erode all the goodwill India has earnt on the ground in Afghanistan not to mention the human loss of IA soldiers that would no doubt occur.

Ya think they may have been stroking your ego??

---------- Post added at 05:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:59 PM ----------

You think Pakistan has been getting the upper hand in last couple decades ?? ever??

Depends what you define upper hand? Bleeding India....yup enough. Of course, the politicans don;t feel the pinch, only the common folk