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Ababeel SSM - Pakistan gains MIRV technology.

Still pissed off for 2020 march parade, I thought Ababeel might have appeared this time.

Allah ki marzi :(
Ababeel was sabotages by US operator related to the program .... it will take some time to come back on the track .....

remember few years back there was a news of arrest of some high ranking person from one of the sensitive organization .....???
 
Ababeel saved the day on Feb 28th evening, when pakistan got the news of india was ready to launch missiles on pakistan airbases and pakistan told US that MIRVs are ready along with CMs. rest assure, Ababeel is operational
 
Pakistani second strike is land based.
Sea based nuclear capability is an added extra.
India doesn't have enough nuclear weapons to scorch entire Pakistan and neither has Pakistan .
At best or worst , both countries can target a few large cities of each other and kill a few millions.

Sea based second strike was a must have between USSR and USA because both had gigatons of nukes and could turn each other into wastelands of burning charcoal.
In Pakistan india scenario both don't need sea based deterrent for each other.
In fact Pakistan is already at an advantage because of highly mobile nukes.
Which are very hard to track and neutralise
*the following is in context of a full scale war between India/Pak to the point where nukes are being considered*

Despite the fact that Pak has mobile nukes...and India doesn't have enough nukes to scorch entire Pak...
...the potential possibility of trying to neutralize Pak's first strike capability remains. Whether or not such scenarios are realistic...or could yield a desirable outcome...is not the question.

What's in question is the "thought"...in Indian calculus...if they think there's even a remote chance to completely destroy or even partially destroy Pak's land based first strike capability...drastically reducing the amount of missiles(nuclear tipped) Pak can launch at India...they WILL go for it. The alternative case of inaction means nuked cities on their end. Hence they will take whatever action necessary(even if it only works in theory and yields zero results) to try to destroy Pak's land based nukes.

It is therefore important to address this "thought" that exists. It should be eliminated entirely and with a nuclear sub along with nuclear tipped MIRV SLBMs...this "thought" would cease to exist. The enemy needs to be convinced that there is NO such scenario where they can walk away without a cost. That's the very purpose of MIRV SLBM(boomers). With that capability in Pak's hands...it doesn't matter what India purchases(Rafales, S400, future more high tech acquisitions, etc.) and in how much quantity...they will KNOW for sure that any DEFINITIVE full scale war with Pak will cost them dearly. No hypotheticals, no strategies, and no air defenses can change the outcome significantly enough where they can hope to have a win. Any such definitive war would mean both countries would lose.

Now to consider the financial costs...yes indeed Pak is in no position to afford that at the moment. However Pak can definitely try to piecemeal it. So for example right now Pak's current missiles can benefit from MIRV(especially considering India's stepped up efforts of missile defenses)...hence Pak has Ababeel in development.

Pak can also work on an ICBM(not publicly) without exorbitant costs involved...mainly bcuz it's not like Pak will be working on it from scratch. Pak has a long history of developing ballistic missiles...and the step up to ICBM would be the next sequential goal built atop prior research and experience.

As for nuclear reactor to power a nuclear sub...as per rumors that is ongoing. However even if it is not...it could be worked on with Chinese assistance.

These three things can be worked on now in present conditions(economically and technologically). Further steps can be taken afterwards...while simultaneously improving the economy. Then in perhaps 20 years time...Pak can consider actively building such a capability(as discussed above).
 
Ababeel was sabotages by US operator related to the program .... it will take some time to come back on the track .....

remember few years back there was a news of arrest of some high ranking person from one of the sensitive organization .....???

Doctor Wasim Akram (Employed at Sensitive Organisation)

This or are you talking about someone else?
 
Ababeel was sabotages by US operator related to the program .... it will take some time to come back on the track .....

remember few years back there was a news of arrest of some high ranking person from one of the sensitive organization .....???
Well there's no rush anyway. The existing missile capabilities of Pakistan are enough already .
However the sooner they can revive ababeel program the better.
 
Ababeel was sabotages by US operator related to the program .... it will take some time to come back on the track .....

remember few years back there was a news of arrest of some high ranking person from one of the sensitive organization .....???
That is something new to me o_Oo_O:o:
 
Hmmm, well we never got confirmation IF he was hanged or still alive, along him were Lieutenant General & a Brigadier Raja Rizwan.
The Brigadier was hanged. It was in the news.
The Lt general was imprisoned for 14 years.
Don't know about the civilian. He was sentenced, but hanged or not is unknown.

When the original test was done in 2017. Me and @JamD jointly did some size calculations on this thread
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/abab...s-mirv-technology.474136/page-55#post-9139060

Later I matched those dimensions with largest TEL Pakistan has, the one carrying Shaheen-3 ,and here is how an Ababeel mounted on that TEL will look like

PicsArt_01-25-04.01.26.jpg


Ababeel was sabotages by US operator related to the program .... it will take some time to come back on the track .....

remember few years back there was a news of arrest of some high ranking person from one of the sensitive organization .....???
The other possibility is that a new rocket is being developed for Ababeel?
The original test borrowed Shaheen-3 first and second stage and Ababeels third stage and warhead assembly was mounted on that.
 
The Brigadier was hanged. It was in the news.
The Lt general was imprisoned for 14 years.
Don't know about the civilian. He was sentenced, but hanged or not is unknown.

When the original test was done in 2017. Me and @JamD jointly did some size calculations on this thread
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/abab...s-mirv-technology.474136/page-55#post-9139060

Later I matched those dimensions with largest TEL Pakistan has, the one carrying Shaheen-3 ,and here is how an Ababeel mounted on that TEL will look like

View attachment 634594


The other possibility is that a new rocket is being developed for Ababeel?
The original test borrowed Shaheen-3 first and second stage and Ababeels third stage and warhead assembly was mounted on that.
It's funny you should say that. I've thought about this too. Disclaimer: what follows is completely wild speculation.

Ababeel is best viewed as a technology demonstrator for the MIRV bus/third stage and not a new system (at least not yet). As you pointed out it used S3 as its base. S2 and S3 have the same (or very similar) diameter motors. As we can see in the Ababeel this leads to an awkward phallic looking missile which cant be great for aerodynamics or storage/carriage. I strongly suspect that a newer, larger diameter rocket motor is being worked upon for the Ababeel. Wide enough so that the MIRV bus sits flush. This will probably mean a reduction in length. As a larger diameter solid rocket comes with a host of challenges I think it will be some time before we see the next iteration of the Ababeel. If the Ababeel ends up being wider I can quote this post to claim calling it first lol.
 
It's funny you should say that. I've thought about this too. Disclaimer: what follows is completely wild speculation.

Ababeel is best viewed as a technology demonstrator for the MIRV bus/third stage and not a new system (at least not yet). As you pointed out it used S3 as its base. S2 and S3 have the same (or very similar) diameter motors. As we can see in the Ababeel this leads to an awkward phallic looking missile which cant be great for aerodynamics or storage/carriage. I strongly suspect that a newer, larger diameter rocket motor is being worked upon for the Ababeel. Wide enough so that the MIRV bus sits flush. This will probably mean a reduction in length. As a larger diameter solid rocket comes with a host of challenges I think it will be some time before we see the next iteration of the Ababeel. If the Ababeel ends up being wider I can quote this post to claim calling it first lol.
It's funny you should say that. I've thought about this too. Disclaimer: what follows is completely wild speculation.

Ababeel is best viewed as a technology demonstrator for the MIRV bus/third stage and not a new system (at least not yet). As you pointed out it used S3 as its base. S2 and S3 have the same (or very similar) diameter motors. As we can see in the Ababeel this leads to an awkward phallic looking missile which cant be great for aerodynamics or storage/carriage. I strongly suspect that a newer, larger diameter rocket motor is being worked upon for the Ababeel. Wide enough so that the MIRV bus sits flush. This will probably mean a reduction in length. As a larger diameter solid rocket comes with a host of challenges I think it will be some time before we see the next iteration of the Ababeel. If the Ababeel ends up being wider I can quote this post to claim calling it first lol.
Yes, you can claim to be the Missile Nostradamus when the new version of Ababeel is revealed :lol:

On a serious note, the original version of the missile is more than 20 meters long. About the same length as Agni-4 with 4000 Km range or 2 meters shorter than Topol-M with stupid thousand Kilometers range. But the due to using Shaheen-3 stage 1 and 2 the missile is very thin for its length at about 1.6 meters wide on stage 1 and 2 and then 1.8 meters warhead assembly.
This arrangement may be fine for Silo or the slow moving TEL Agni-V uses, but not for the highly mobile fast TEL Pakistan uses. Because such thin and top heavy structure may not have much integrity.
Ideally the missile should be shorter by at least 2 meters , to a length of 18 meters, and the entire missile should be of same diameter or 1.8 meters.
Currently Pakistan doesn't have such rocket motor and a new one may well be under development.
The odd shape of Ababeel also took a toll on the missile's speed , and its much slower than S-3 in the boost phase, which is not good due to the Indian ABM threat.
 

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