The Kiyani Doctrine. General Kiyani had visited NATO in Brussels and very clearly described Pakistan’s interests and what it would take to get Pakistanis on board. Apparently NATO, ISAF, the UK and the US seem to have bought the Kiyani Doctrine–Pakistan is a regional power and Afghanistan is within Pakistan’s sphere of influence not India’s. President Hamid Karzai met General Kiyani and continued the discussion which General Kiyani which had started in Kabul. Mr. Karzai also debriefed General Kiyani on his discussions with Iranian president Mr. Ahmedinejad.
Kabul knows that Islamabad remains a powerful regional player and its longtime links to the Taliban could make it an indispensable part of talks. AP
“The Afghans are not in a position to take on Pakistan,” Ahmed Rashid
…the [Indian] Afghan policy is a microcosm of a larger malaise that the Indian foreign policy and security establishment needs to tackle. There is no evidence that Delhi has the political will to have a course correction in this aspect. Ambassador Bhadrakumar of Asia Times.
Mr. Karzai also met with Prime Minister Gilani and President Zardari. Mr. Karzai was told in no uncertain terms that Afghan Taliban arrested in Pakistan would be tried in Pakistan and not extradited to Afghanistan. Mr. Kiyani is a bit angry at Bharat for supporting his rival Abdullah Abdullah during a tough election. Mr Abdullah is not accepted as a Pakhtun (even though his mother is a Pakhtun). The Indian bred Mr. Abdullah cannot speak Pushto.
Speculation over Pakistan’s role in peace talks with the Taliban has increased in recent weeks following Islamabad’s February arrest of the group’s No. 2 leader in a joint raid with the CIA.
The arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, considered a likely channel in any talks with the top Taliban leadership, came as a surprise. He was one of the first senior Taliban commanders captured by Pakistan. Associated Press
Analysts are saying that the arrested Taliban was part of the Karzai strategy to secure his survival. Mr. Karzai had wanted to take these pro-Indian militants who were trying to sabotage the peace deal and work directly with Bharat. The ISI got wind of these independent actors and picked them up. Some analysts are claiming that the US and Pakistan are defining the mechanism for talks with Mulla Omar, Mulla Baradar, Hamid Karzai and Pakistan. Certain analysts are claiming that the ISI has secured a key role in bringing peace to Pakistan. Saleem Shehzad of Asia Times has suggested that there is increasing convergence between Washington and Islamabad. Shehzad seems to think that there is congruency between American and US thinking on Afghanistan. According to Shehzad General Kiyani laid down Pakistani demands to the US–and these were accepted by American–as consecrated by the London Conference. Mr. Ahmed Rashid has suggested that Mullah Baradar was trying to bypass Pakistan–hence the visit of the PM Manmohan Singh to Saudi Arabia. Some Pakistani analysts have gone to the extent of saying that Mulla Baradar is a “guest” of Pakistan, and is part of a strategy of being used for reconciliation with Mullah Omar of Afghanistan.
Captured Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is “singing like a male canary,” according to intelligence officials, reports Fox News. Baradar, who remains under Pakistani custody, is providing vital information about the Taliban and other extremist groups in the region. After a series of arrests, the Afghan Taliban’s leadership has reportedly dispersed across Pakistan to avoid capture. The pressure on the Taliban is undermining insurgencies in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, said Western officials. Huffington Post.
The Bharati (aka Indian) media is full of mistrust of Mr. Karzai. This probably reflects Delhi’s internal thinking–and its insecurity in the new Afghanistan which will look like the Afghanistan of the nineties. Mr. Karzai is being pulled by Delhi in one direction and the 60 members of the London conference in another direction. If Mr. Karzai is to survive, he has to make his political choices.
Karzai recently made a renewed push to jump-start peace talks with the Taliban, which ruled Afghanistan until late 2001 and since then has lead a bloody insurgency against the U.S.-backed government in Kabul.
Pakistan has offered to help negotiate with the militants. But many observers believe Afghanistan wants to keep Pakistan out of any talks, suspicious of Islamabad’s support of the Taliban government while the militants were in power.
Karzai tried to dispel that speculation during a joint news conference with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani as part of a two-day trip to Pakistan — his first since he was re-elected in a fraud-marred vote last year.
He thanked Gilani “for offering support to Afghanistan’s efforts for reconciliation,” and added: “Indeed, Pakistan has a significantly important role to play there, and Afghanistan welcomes that role.” Associated Press.
Ambassador Bhadrakumar’s in depth analysis of Bharati foreign policy is poignant and very pertinent.
Delhi had put all its eggs in the American basket and now needs to activate its regional policies. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is scheduled to arrive in Delhi at the weekend. The Indian foreign minister is scheduled to visit China next month and possibly Iran by the end of March. The annual summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in June in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, becomes of added interest to Delhi.
However, the heart of the matter is that the Afghan policy is a microcosm of a larger malaise that the Indian foreign policy andsecurity establishment needs to tackle. There is no evidence that Delhi has the political will to have a course correction in this aspect.
In retrospect, Delhi’s hare-brained idea of a US-led “quadripartite alliance” against China, the “Tibet card”, the dilution of a 2003 strategic understanding with Iran, neglect of the traditional friendship with Russia, the lukewarm attitude toward the SCO, exaggerated notions within the establishment regarding the US-India strategic partnership as an alternative to an independent foreign policy and diversified external relationships – all these appear now like dreadful pantomimes out of India’s foreign policy chronicle of recent years that Delhi would rather not think about. Asia Times. Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
General Patraeus still harping on old tune about Quetta Shura
Strategic Depth: Strength of Pakistan lies in a secure Afghanistan
Why are Pakistani peace deals considered capitulation and US peace deals in…
“But it also has an interest that is somewhat different than ours, and that is their strategic depth and always has been for a country that’s very narrow and has its historic enemy to its east. So again, we just have to appreciate this”. General Petraeus
“This is not unique, of course, just to Afghanistan and Pakistan and throughout the world. We have interests, they have interests. What we want to do is find the conversion interest, understand where they are divergent and try to make progress together,” General Petraeus.
No extradition, Karzai told. Pakistan owns Afghan reconciliation
Why was Karzai sent to Islamabad?
Green Flag over mountain cauldron
Pakhtuns make up about 40 percent of the population of Afghanistan. Mr. Karzai is a Pakhtun, belonging to one of the smaller tribes. For the first time in history, Afghanistan’s smaller ethnic groups play disproportionate roles in the government and the military. This has created the Taliban uprising who are mainly Pakhtuns and have close links with their brothers and sisters across the border in Pakistan. In fact million of Paktuns have been born in Pakistan and still live in Pakistan.
Afghanistan, Pakistan we’re conjoined twins. Karzai
“India is a close friend of Afghanistan but Pakistan is a brother of Afghanistan. Pakistan is a twin brother … we’re conjoined twins, there’s no separation,” Karzai.
The Afghan president welcomed Islamabad’s offers of support for Afghanistan’s efforts at reconciliation.
Pakistan “has a significantly important role to play in that and Afghanistan would welcome that role”. Karzai
Karzai’s government has called on Islamabad to extradite Baradar but some analysts suggest he could become a bargaining chip for a Pakistan determined to have a say in Afghanistan’s future.
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said Pakistan was “consulting legal experts” with regard to the extradition request but reiterated willingness to assist Afghan-led peace efforts.
Beneath the flowery language, Mr. Karzai was disappointed at being politely rebuffed by Prime Minister Gilani. During the exclusive and delegation level talks President Zardari stressed for enhanced interaction between the two countries to better cope with the issues of terrorism and extremism.
Critics have accused the Pakistani government of protecting Taliban leaders to maintain good relations with the group in anticipation of Western forces eventually withdrawing from the country — an allegation denied by Pakistan.
Some analysts have speculated the country was trying to guarantee itself a seat at the negotiating table.
“The Afghans see this as an undermining of their (peace) initiative,” said Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani expert on the Taliban.
…Despite long-standing tension between the two countries, Kabul knows that Islamabad remains a powerful regional player and its longtime links to the Taliban could make it an indispensable part of talks.
“The Afghans are not in a position to take on Pakistan,” said Rashid. Associated Press
Mr. Karzai a former Unocal representative is a self-professed Taliban himself and had been proposed by the Taliban as the UN representative. He lived in exile in Quetta and enjoyed the hospitality of the Baloch and Pakistan. Pakistan still hosts 3 million Afghan refugees who have refused to be repatriated and or go back to Afghanistan.
(Reuters) – Afghanistan does not want a proxy war between Pakistan and India or anybody else fought on its soil, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said Thursday during a visit to Pakistan.
Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan are vying for influence in Afghanistan, complicating U.S.-led efforts to end an intensifying Taliban insurgency and bring stability to Afghanistan more than eight years after the Taliban were ousted. Reuters
The US and the UK are putting pressure on Mr. Karzai to deal with the Taliban, and Pakistan’s role is seen as crucial to that venture.
Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan is close to the core of Islamabad’s national security interests and Pakistan has to be a partner in finding solutions in its western conflict-hit neighbor…British Foreign Secretary David Miliband
David Miliband emphasized Wednesday while also urging Afghans to pursue a political settlement in their country.
“Pakistan is essential here. It holds many of the keys to security and dialogue. It clearly has to be a partner in finding solutions in Afghanistan.” David Miliband.
Of course, Pakistan will only act according to its own sense of its national interest, he remarked. David Miliband
It is perpetually worried about India’s relationship with Afghanistan. David Miliband.
“That is only natural. Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan is close to the core of its national security interests. David Miliband
Pakistan fears the build up of a non-Pashtun Afghan National Army on their doorstep.David Miliband
Karzai said he did not want any country using Afghanistan against another. His visit comes after Pakistan has intensified efforts to fight militancy, winning U.S. praise.
“The bottom line is, Afghanistan does not want any proxy wars on its territory,” Karzai told a news conference with Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani.
“It does not want a proxy war between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan, it does not want a proxy war between Iran and the United States in Afghanistan,” he said.
India has developed close relations with Karzai’s government while ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been fraught with tension over recent years, mostly over Afghan suspicion Pakistan is quietly helping the Taliban.
Analysts say Pakistan sees the Afghan Taliban as a tool to promote its interests in Afghanistan, where it wants to see a friendly government in power and to limit India’s influence.
While India accuses Pakistan of backing militants who attack its interests in Afghanistan, Pakistan accuses India of using its diplomatic missions in Afghanistan to help separatist militants in its southwestern province of Baluchistan. Reuters.
Mr. Karzai has accepted the Pakistani role in Afghanistan, and solicited help from the Islamabad in bringing peace to Kabul.
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said Pakistan was “consulting legal experts” with regard to the extradition request but reiterated willingness to assist Afghan-led peace efforts.
“In the pursuit of peace and development, for national reconciliation and reintegration, Pakistan places its full weight behind the agenda and the vision outlined by the Afghan people and their elected leadership,” he said.
“We will continue to assist the people of Afghanistan in every manner possible,” he added.
“TWINS”
Karzai said India was a very close friend and had given much support but Pakistan was like a brother.
“India is a close friend of Afghanistan but Pakistan is a brother of Afghanistan. Pakistan is a twin brother … we’re conjoined twins, there’s no separation,” he said.
Both Afghanistan and Pakistan were facing regular, deadly attacks, Karzai said hours before a roadside bomb killed four people in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar.
“We in Afghanistan are fully aware and recognize that without Pakistan, and without its cooperation in Afghanistan, Afghanistan cannot be stable or peaceful,” Karzai said.
“It is also, I believe and I hope, recognized in Pakistan that without a stable and peaceful Afghanistan, there cannot be stability or peace in Pakistan,” he said. Reuters
Ambassador Bhadrakumar says the following:
In retrospect, Delhi’s hare-brained idea of a US-led “quadripartite alliance” against China, the “Tibet card”, the dilution of a 2003 strategic understanding with Iran, neglect of the traditional friendship with Russia, the lukewarm attitude toward the SCO, exaggerated notions within the establishment regarding the US-India strategic partnership as an alternative to an independent foreign policy and diversified external relationships – all these appear now like dreadful pantomimes out of India’s foreign policy chronicle of recent years that Delhi would rather not think about. Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar
The recent arrest of several Afghan Taliban leaders in Pakistan, including top military strategist Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, has led to speculation Pakistan is changing its position on the militants in anticipation of some sort of peace process and the departure of Western forces.
Pakistan has said very little about the arrests, only officially confirming the arrest of Baradar. Gilani said he and Karzai discussed an Afghan request for Baradar’s extradition.
“We have our own judiciary … we are consulting the legal experts too, and we’ll sit with them and discuss it and get back to the honorable president,” Gilani told the news conference.
A Pakistan court late last month barred the government from sending captured Afghan Taliban leaders abroad.
The Pakistani interior minister had earlier said Baradar was being investigated for crimes in Pakistan and would be tried there in the first instance. Reuters.
A Joint Declaration issued at the end of two-day visit of President Hamid Karzai on “Next Steps in Afghanistan-Pakistan Comprehensive Cooperation” expressed determination by the two sides to realize the full potential of their vast human and natural resources for the progress and prosperity of their peoples.
Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to evolve joint strategies for early implementation of trans-Afghan energy projects, with particular focus on CASA-1000 and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Gas Pipeline.
The two countries agreed to attach priority to undertaking completion of Peshawar-Jalalabad Expressway and completing feasibility study of Peshawar-Jalalabad rail link.
They also agreed to develop plans of action for customs harmonization and trade facilitation to facilitate bilateral trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan and to optimally utilize the natural comparative economic advantage of the two countries so as to enhance bilateral trade to $ 5 billion by the Year 2015.
The two sides also agreed to establish a Silk Route CEOs Forum, and establish Pakistan-Afghanistan Reconstruction Consortium, pool public and private corporate resources for reconstruction and development.
It was also decided to explore establishment of a Joint Investment Company to undertake joint development projects, including initiatives to develop region’s vast mineral and hydel wealth and also to consider setting up Economic and Industrial Zones.
The two countries decided to enhance the number of scholarships for Afghan students in Pakistani educational institutions from the current 1000 to 2000 and to make special arrangements for female Afghan students.
It was also decided to set up an Institute on Management, Business Administration and Faculty Training in Afghanistan.
Ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been uneasy since Pakistan’s independence in 1947 but have warmed since a civilian government came to power in Islamabad in 2008.
At times, Karzai and former Pakistani military leader Pervez Musharraf were hardly on speaking terms. Reuters. (Additional reporting by Ibrahim Shinwari; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Paul Tait)
Afghan President Karzai urged for a partnership which allows realization of the full potential of human and natural resources and want greater connectivity, more trade and economic cooperation. He called for new development projects and investments in the two countries driven by energy corridors in the region.
Karzai thanked for Pakistan’s support and efforts for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of Afghanistan.
President Zardari pointed that Pakistan’s bilateral trade with Afghanistan was US$ 1.4 billion in 2008 and there was a vast economic potential and great opportunities for cooperation. He said the Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement was under negotiations and hoped it would further boost economic interaction.
President Zardari also pointed to the over 3 million Afghan refugees that were still in Pakistan and said an early restoration of peace and normalcy in Afghanistan will enable the return of these refugees to their motherland.
Afghanistan is like ethnically German Austria–German in every way, language, culture, religion and was part of the Austro-Hungarian empire. The Allied powers were bent upon separating it from Germany. Today it is united in the EU with Germany.
Over the centuries, Afghanistan was part of overlapping Pakistani and Afghan empires. The British separated Afghanistan from Pakistan as a beffer between Tsarist Russia and Imperial Britian. IN the Fifties, King Zahir Shah had agreed to a confederation between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In the 90s, the countries had pretty much come together as one–without the formal announcement which was unnecessary and would be seen as provocative. The Indians (aka Bhartis) and others are trying to keep the “inseparable conjoined twins” away from each other.
Millions of Afghans have been born in Pakistan. Today the inevitable union of the two countries will happen as soon as the US forces leave and the foreign influences are defeated.
