A Minister of PTI in touch with PMLN leadership for no confidence motion

[Norwegian]

Is there any polling done lately for I.K popularity right now?...and what would likely election result be if held right now etc?

To get elected in Pakistan, you only need popularity with the establishment.

 

[Tameem]

These are all Half Stories. Spread ed by Umpires themselves, luring PMLN to join hands again.
Opposition read PMLN read Nawaz Sharif in no mode to topple this IK Govt.
I will say again toppling this govt is in no interests of PMLN politically.
This Govt should complete it full 5 Years.

Khawaja Asif Denies, Ansar Abbasi Story....as i said the rumor mills operated by 'friends' of Imran Khan, no one else. PMLN have no intrests of pulling this govt down.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1280422290501570562

Is there any polling done lately for I.K popularity right now?...and what would likely election result be if held right now etc?

All previous polls indicating PMLN leading in overall "Votes" and "Seats" Projection. Specially in Pujab where the lead is profound. Today it is becoming more one sided.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/roshan-pakistan-opinion-polling-pmln-is-on-the-rise-again.627924/
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/new-poll-shows-pmln-leading-over-pti-in-seat-projection.624230/

That is why Govt is avoiding Local Bodies Elections in Pakistan for quite sometime.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Khawaja Asif Denies, Ansar Abbasi Story....as i said the rumor mills operated by 'friends' of Imran Khan, no one else. PMLN have no intrests of pulling this govt down.

The 'rumor mills' have functioned in every single government, and largely utilize the same set of journalists.

These rumor mills are more of a reflection on the sorry state of journalism in Pakistan than any 'conspiracies' by 'friends' or 'enemies'.

All previous polls indicating PMLN leading in overall "Votes" and "Seats" Projection. Specially in Pujab where the lead is profound. Today it is becoming more one sided.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/roshan-pakistan-opinion-polling-pmln-is-on-the-rise-again.627924/
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/new-poll-shows-pmln-leading-over-pti-in-seat-projection.624230/

That is why Govt is avoiding Local Bodies Elections in Pakistan for quite sometime.

Any polling at this stage with respect to the elections in 2023 is rather pointless. There are a lot of variables to consider, especially in Punjab, with respect to the creation of a new South Punjab province.

 

[Armchair]

All this is wrong. Establishment's hands all over the place.
Not much at the moment about the dictation to PM IK. But how the elections were conducted.
It is a wrong to think that PTI was brought to the power by Establishment.

On the contrary, the rigging was done other way around and PTI was stopped from getting the clear majority, which would have eliminated the role of the Establishment, which it is still playing behind the scenes.

I am certain, the Generals were very susceptible to Prime Minister Imran Khan's character, fearing he may not listen to them and carry out his own agenda for clearing the deck in Pakistani politics and businesses and getting rid of the criminal and corrupt elements.

I believe this. However, I think IK has now won over the military establishment, the only part of the establishment that really matters. Meanwhile, he is losing support within his own party and within the wider public for a largely mediocre government. Less corrupt surely, but not performing any better than PPP or PMLN in terms of domestic policy.

The fact that PMLN or PPP had almost destroyed Pakistan is too hidden to be a real issue for people. PTI supporters had big dreams. They see their dreams shattered by petty men surrounding IK. With the loss of the dream and motivation among PTI workers, PTI won't be able to perform.

Meanwhile, PMLN and PPP will perform because their politics does not depend on dreams of Naya Pakistan.

Imran Khan is letting himself down and if things keep going the way they are, PTI will lose its government in the next election. We may actually see a PMLN and PPP coalition take over.

with respect to the creation of a new South Punjab province.

Is this still possible with the wafer thin coalition majority PTI has? Can this also include splitting Sindh into two pieces and Balochistan into 4? And perhaps add GB and AK as two new provinces as well?

 

[Jungibaaz]

Although I’m one to point fingers at the army (establishment) interference more than most here. I think people are losing sight of how they operate politically and how they exert influence.

Let me paint the actual picture as it stands, IK was in their good books, he was their choice since 2013-14. If there’s talk, there’s mostly talk about establishment withdrawing support, not actively undermining him. The reason why people then jump to this minus idea is that they are (IMO wrongly) assuming that if the establishment backs off IK will fall immediately. Yes for sure PMLQ and MQM will desert him, but there’s no guarantee that the opposition will be strong enough to overthrow a minority government, in that scenario anything can happen. IK would still have power but his days numbered.

However, if the army wants IK gone, via in house change, elections, undermining etc. They can do it very easily, it’ll cost them though. In house change is easy as surrounding IK are opportunists within and external vultures without. But make no mistake, establishment aren’t stupid, they don’t blatantly rig elections or use force unless they have to, they prefer politicking and election engineering behind the scenes. For example if they need a certain undesirable party to get fewer seats in Punjab in the next election? Easy... no need to rig, just let another party emerge that will break barelvi vote of that party you want to undermine. You need the stage set politically so awaam can accept a questionable political outcome? Easy, employ your goons in the media, you can even arm twist the judges, courts might fight you but if you have dirt on a judge to blackmail with, who needs institutional complicity? Etc.

 

[Tameem]

The 'rumor mills' have functioned in every single government, and largely utilize the same set of journalists.

These rumor mills are more of a reflection on the sorry state of journalism in Pakistan than any 'conspiracies' by 'friends' or 'enemies'.

And "Minus One" theory too ejaculated by some rouge Journalists...Com'on accept the reality, dont be an ostrich.

Any polling at this stage with respect to the elections in 2023 is rather pointless. There are a lot of variables to consider, especially in Punjab, with respect to the creation of a new South Punjab province.

Again, All Gimmics by 'Friends'.

 

[VCheng]

But make no mistake, establishment aren’t stupid, they don’t blatantly rig elections or use force unless they have to, they prefer politicking and election engineering behind the scenes. For example if they need a certain undesirable party to get fewer seats in Punjab in the next election? Easy... no need to rig, just let another party emerge that will break barelvi vote of that party you want to undermine. You need the stage set politically so awaam can accept a questionable political outcome? Easy, employ your goons in the media, you can even arm twist the judges, courts might fight you but if you have dirt on a judge to blackmail with, who needs institutional complicity? Etc.

Except Sir, as many here would point out, there is no proof of that sort of influence or interference being done as you suggest.

 

[El Sidd]

it’ll cost them though.

you wish it was true

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Although I’m one to point fingers at the army (establishment) interference more than most here. I think people are losing sight of how they operate politically and how they exert influence.

Let me paint the actual picture as it stands, IK was in their good books, he was their choice since 2013-14. If there’s talk, there’s mostly talk about establishment withdrawing support, not actively undermining him. The reason why people then jump to this minus idea is that they are (IMO wrongly) assuming that if the establishment backs off IK will fall immediately. Yes for sure PMLQ and MQM will desert him, but there’s no guarantee that the opposition will be strong enough to overthrow a minority government, in that scenario anything can happen. IK would still have power but his days numbered.

However, if the army wants IK gone, via in house change, elections, undermining etc. They can do it very easily, it’ll cost them though. In house change is easy as surrounding IK are opportunists within and external vultures without. But make no mistake, establishment aren’t stupid, they don’t blatantly rig elections or use force unless they have to, they prefer politicking and election engineering behind the scenes. For example if they need a certain undesirable party to get fewer seats in Punjab in the next election? Easy... no need to rig, just let another party emerge that will break barelvi vote of that party you want to undermine. You need the stage set politically so awaam can accept a questionable political outcome? Easy, employ your goons in the media, you can even arm twist the judges, courts might fight you but if you have dirt on a judge to blackmail with, who needs institutional complicity? Etc.

I don't see the Establishment withdrawing support. They have no other options - the PMLN and the PPP have basically painted themselves as 'anti-Fauj' with their rhetoric. If you thought Nawaz was considered anti Army before, I don't think there's any doubt now.

Additionally, people are selling the Establishment short in terms of thinking that they've already thrown in the towel. This is the same establishment that patiently worked through decades of chaos, death and destruction of the US invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent issues faced by Pakistan without compromising on its perceived national security goals. I don't think you're going to see them back down from supporting Imran Khan after just 2 years knowing the kind of condition the PPP & PMLN had left the country in.

If the ruling coalition does fall apart, this time it won't be because of Establishment machinations, but because of simple politics, where the coalition members will act to save themselves from a perceived 'sinking ship' and protect their interests. If the Establishment does fail at convincing the coalition to stay together, it will do much the same as the other parties - start working on building bridges and repairing relations with the opposition and other political actors to ensure their interests are protected - but it won't be the one to bring the coalition down.

 

[El Sidd]

Is forum pa to ulti ganga beh rhi ha.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1280135338883719169

ganga china rok dega kuch dino me

 

[El Sidd]

PTI minister is in touch with noon league for no confidence motion against sharif family inside noon league. Pakistan needs noon league minus sharifs + PTI

Pakistan is progressing at her own pace as designed.

Politicians just need to keep pace.

Who cares which one of the 250+ selected parliamentarians become PM?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

And "Minus One" theory too ejaculated by some rouge Journalists...Com'on accept the reality, dont be an ostrich.

Minus one has been thrown around in the media for a long time before Imran Khan mentioned it. Even during the days of the Fazlu dharna, the talk was all about 'Minus one' or 'minus 2' (Remove Imran Khan and Bajwa).

Again, All Gimmics by 'Friends'.

What's gimmicky about South Punjab? That's something the PTI made a part of its election campaign and continues to support and even the PMLN has supported the idea. The PMLN can't afford to backtrack on it now without losing support, and if the new province does get created before the elections, the PTI will reap the rewards. So a bad place for the PMLN to be in.

 

[Tameem]

Although I’m one to point fingers at the army (establishment) interference more than most here. I think people are losing sight of how they operate politically and how they exert influence.

Everheard, The Monkey and Cats story in your childhodd. Its exactly like that.
https://www.moralstories.org/the-monkey-and-cats/

If there’s talk, there’s mostly talk about establishment withdrawing support, not actively undermining him.

Its not that easy my dear to escape now. Its not 60s, 70s in the first place. The time for Monkey to have the full cake as well as trust of quarreling cats long gone.

 

[El Sidd]

Sahi baat ha. Kisi ko kya farq prta ha siwaye kuch fans k. Wo bhi aanso baha kar bhol jayain ga

The only crisis Pakistan has which stops it from progressing is the simple fact of political identity crisis.

The country's foundation lies in matters of pure democracy while the populace does not believe in democracy as viable form of governance.

This is the root cause of all that fails in Pakistan, from security water resources to exploiting the natural geographical trade routes.

Rest is just talk and fan boy stuff to pass the time while things evolve and revolve.

 

[Tameem]

Minus one has been thrown around in the media for a long time before Imran Khan mentioned it. Even during the days of the Fazlu dharna, the talk was all about 'Minus one' or 'minus 2' (Remove Imran Khan and Bajwa).

What's gimmicky about South Punjab? That's something the PTI made a part of its election campaign and continues to support and even the PMLN has supported the idea. The PMLN can't afford to backtrack on it now without losing support, and if the new province does get created before the elections, the PTI will reap the rewards. So a bad place for the PMLN to be in.

Sir, You have no idea what you are talking about.
Let me spoon..........Minus one gets momentum when one Cabinet Minister accuse two other Cabinet ministers for pursuing under this endeavor and that cabinet minister is very close to 'friends' everyone knows.

Secondly, on South Punjab first all political parties have to agree for the make up of Senate as every province have equal votes their. KPK, Baluchistan, Sindh never allow further division of poll to accommodates South Punjab along side western punjab bcz their share of seat would reduce to 1/5 from 1/4 at current. A lot of consensus and understanding needed before even imagine towards this goal, and in current circumstances its impossible.