Featured 5 Rounds of Failed Talks & Indian Army Prepares for Long Haul: The Implications

[Joe Shearer]

It is moronic to think that Pakistan can or should take any military advantage of what seems to be a likely prolonged deployment of Indian army at LAC. But I do think that it will relieve some pressure, both military and political, at LOC and hence CPEC. Who knows, maybe that is one of the objectives of the Chinese!?

I think that is a valid point. Yes, that makes sense, otherwise the whole episode is bizarre.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I said in the Kashmir region facing Pakistan you almost have 1M soldiers facing us. The number corps, divisions and brigades it has is of no concern at the moment in my conversation, just the quantity of security forces.

Umm, yes. I said the same thing. Look it up and see for yourself.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Armor around rest of International Border between India and Pakistan.

Good luck with that. With both sides evenly matched, all that will result is a stalemate..

 

[Joe Shearer]

Where did I say one Army Corp has 1M people? I said in the Kashmir region facing Pakistan you almost have 1M soldiers facing us. The number corps, divisions and brigades it has is of no concern at the moment in my conversation, just the quantity of security forces.

OK, I admit I was brusque and abrupt and downright rude. My apologies.

There are in fact not even a quarter of the number that has been mentioned. The Vale is handled by XV Corps defending the border, and approximately 50 Rashtriya Rifles contingents, each of a 1,000 jawans. That gives us two divisions, 19th Infantry Division, and 28th Infantry Division, and an Artillery Brigade, defending Srinagar, and another 50,000 RR formations handling counter-insurgency (the formations mentioned other than RR don't do counter-insurgency, but they do defend themselves if attacked).

Each division consists of two, sometimes three brigades; assuming (this is not true) that each has three brigades, and that each brigade has three battalions, we have a total of 2 Divisions x 3 Brigades x 3 Battalions x 4,000 / 6,000 jawans, taking the maximum possible (the actual figures cannot be revealed on a Pakistani site, but are lower than these). There are less than 200,000 people in the Vale and in the border areas beyond. Not even by adding the personnel of the police forces, the CRPF the BSF, the CISF, and the native J&K police forces does the figure cross 300,000. nob

I have explained these figures again and again and again, and even asked the soldier, PanzerKiel, to corroborate my figures.

The entire head-count of the Indian Army is 1.1 million soldiers. If 1 million had been in the Vale, there would be none in Kargil, none in Siachen, none in and around Daulat Beg Oldie, none in the Galwan River, none in the Pangong Tso, none in Himachal, facing the Pakistan Army, none in Jammu, on the LOC, none on the Punjab frontier, none in Jaipur, and none in Ahmedabad. Even more serious, there would be nobody in Sikkim at Nathu La, no one in Doklam, and nobody in Arunachal Pradesh. Forget about Bangladesh, there would be nobody to breathe down the necks of the Naga.

Trust me on this, the figure of 1 million in Kashmir is concocted, from an entirely rhetorical flourish it has become an established fact.

 

[MilSpec]

OK, I admit I was brusque and abrupt and downright rude. My apologies.

There are in fact not even a quarter of the number that has been mentioned. The Vale is handled by XV Corps defending the border, and approximately 50 Rashtriya Rifles contingents, each of a 1,000 jawans. That gives us two divisions, 19th Infantry Division, and 28th Infantry Division, and an Artillery Brigade, defending Srinagar, and another 50,000 RR formations handling counter-insurgency (the formations mentioned other than RR don't do counter-insurgency, but they do defend themselves if attacked).

Each division consists of two, sometimes three brigades; assuming (this is not true) that each has three brigades, and that each brigade has three battalions, we have a total of 2 Divisions x 3 Brigades x 3 Battalions x 4,000 / 6,000 jawans, taking the maximum possible (the actual figures cannot be revealed on a Pakistani site, but are lower than these). There are less than 200,000 people in the Vale and in the border areas beyond. Not even by adding the personnel of the police forces, the CRPF the BSF, the CISF, and the native J&K police forces does the figure cross 300,000. nob

I have explained these figures again and again and again, and even asked the soldier, PanzerKiel, to corroborate my figures.

The entire head-count of the Indian Army is 1.1 million soldiers. If 1 million had been in the Vale, there would be none in Kargil, none in Siachen, none in and around Daulat Beg Oldie, none in the Galwan River, none in the Pangong Tso, none in Himachal, facing the Pakistan Army, none in Jammu, on the LOC, none on the Punjab frontier, none in Jaipur, and none in Ahmedabad. Even more serious, there would be nobody in Sikkim at Nathu La, no one in Doklam, and nobody in Arunachal Pradesh. Forget about Bangladesh, there would be nobody to breathe down the necks of the Naga.

Trust me on this, the figure of 1 million in Kashmir is concocted, from an entirely rhetorical flourish it has become an established fact.

Accurate but futile.

 

[Shantanu_Left]

Summarised Analysis points copied from the article:

1. India’s newly appointed Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat, along with his top commanders, told an all-party parliamentary Public Accounts Committee (PAC) last week that the military de-escalation process with China would be a long drawn out matter.

Bipin "Butcher" Rawat is still running the show as CDS? Holy ... I thought that post was just a showpiece

 

[Bossman]

India cannot do much against China but it can try capturing Pakistani territory and use it as a leverage for China to withdraw. In view of China’s involvement and dependency on Pakistan for strategic reasons, this scenario is very plausible. It will also help Modi with his base. Whether they can do it or not and how China will react is a different story.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Armor around rest of International Border between India and Pakistan.

On this, truth to tell, the major tank battles between Pakistan and India have always taken place in this area.

In 1965, to give an example, the first clash took place near Khem Karan, after the Indian attack on Kasur was driven back. The retreating Indian forces dug in just north of Khem Karan, that had been quickly captured by the counter-attacking Pakistani 1 Armoured Division, and, reinforced by the Indian 2 Independent Armoured Brigade, held their own against the Pakistani Division. In the north, an attack on Sialkot by the Indian 1 Armoured Division was stopped by a handful of gallant defenders.

To that extent, then, and in 1971, all the significant fighting took part between Kharian and Kasur, except for one odd attack that was mounted in the desert sector in 1971, and was subjected to heavy bombardment and stopped at Longewal. However, their thrust was so unexpected that it completely unbalanced Major General Khambata, who had planned a major offensive of his own into Pakistan, and put it off again and again until it was too late,and the ceasefire had been announced.

Also in 1971, General Eftekhar Janjua mounted a fierce attack at the same spot that Pakistan had attacked six years earlier, at Akhnoor, but achieved far more success than his predecessor. Only his unlucky death in a helicopter crash prevented major calamity from overcoming Indian defences.

So what has India done?

For one thing, defending the northern sector, from Jaurian to Akhnoor, we have two divisions covering the hills (from Rajauri) and the foothills (from Akhnoor); another division is positioned at Yol in Himachal Pradesh to be moved wherever there appeared to be the greatest need.

Further south, the defences against any Pakistani attack through southern Haryana or northern Rajasthan have been strengthened considerably, and the bulk of Indian armour is drawn up against any easy incursions between these two places.

Quite clearly, Pakistan, too, will bring up her best armoured formations, to make the most of any opportunity that might occur. The most likely outcome is, once again, a stalemate.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Accurate but futile.

Not good enough?

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

When everyone assumes that the United States is the most powerful country, the United States cannot afford to fail.
Therefore, the United States will try its best to avoid direct conflict with China, and India is the most suitable American puppet.

Even if India fails, the United States can take the opportunity to create a civil war and division in India. The entire South Asia will be chaotic and the goals of the United States can still be achieved.

Its possible.

 

[MilSpec]

Not good enough?

Absolutely Accurate, but to what end.

 

[Dark1]

Bipin "Butcher" Rawat is still running the show as CDS? Holy ... I thought that post was just a showpiece

He might not be the best but do we put a peacenik as head of the armed forces ?
Also its the first appointment, and he leaves in a few years. The post is important, the man will change. The next guy might be a better professional.
I find rawat to be too personally ambitious.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Absolutely Accurate, but to what end.

LOLOL.

Point taken.

 

[Joe Shearer]

He might not be the best but do we put a peacenik as head of the armed forces ?
Also its the first appointment, and he leaves in a few years. The post is important, the man will change. The next guy might be a better professional.
I find rawat to be too personally ambitious.

More than that, he's the wrong man for the job.

The BJP, with its tin ear for these things, deliberately chose a counter-insurgency specialist for the position of Army chief. Counter-insurgency DOES NOT train you for war; it is a distraction and a blind alley for a soldier. You need a gendarmerie, a formation between an armed police and a military, to do it, and that is something that Pakistan has done pretty well.

It is this skewed orientation of his that makes Rawat a dangerous choice for Army chief. That, and the tail that he will inevitably bring up in his wake.

Not the sort of people we want to see facing the PLA.

 

[Bengal71]

With regret, nothing will change on the LOC. Reinforcing Indian forces on the LAC means at most one division - that's 3% of the Indian Army divisions.

You may, or may not, be aware that the LOC is handled by the XV Corps, the LAC is handled by the XIV Corps; both are independent, both are full-fledged Army Corps. There MAY be a diversion of one division from XVI Corps, that has nothing to do with either the LOC or the LAC, but is positioned immediately to the south of XV Corps.

It is not clear which dimwit started the fairy-tale of tension on the LAC affecting troop deployment on the LOC, unless it is some dimwit dependent on Indian media to do the thinking for him.

@Joe Shearer

Have you been an army officer by career, out of curiosity?