Summarised Analysis points copied from the article:
- India’s newly appointed Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat, along with his top commanders, told an all-party parliamentary Public Accounts Committee (PAC) last week that the military de-escalation process with China would be a long drawn out matter.
- Official sources told The Wire that the PLA has refused to pull back from slivers of territory it occupies along the Pangon Tso (Lake) and the strategically located Depsang Plains to its north to a depth of some 25-30 km in keeping with its 1959 claim line that led to the border war three years later.
- Many senior retired and serving army officers, believe that this upcoming deployment is merely a forerunner to debilitatingly rendering the LAC into another ‘hot’ disputed border, akin to the Line of Control or LoC in Kashmir, that India can ill afford.
Open Points For PDF Members' Discussion:
- Assuming no 'hot war scenario', If PLA decides to stay forever, it will make sure that IA also ante-up on the required infrastructure for LAC. Consequently, it would mean that IA will also stay there forever, digging deep and securing the LAC till Siachen! How would it affect Pakistan in-terms of Siachen dispute?
- Considering the current situation, for IA, LAC turns into another LOC-oriented dispute which will require India to move troops & equipment from LOC to LAC, how can PA take leverage from this situation at LOC?
https://thewire.in/security/ladakh-indian-army-pla-winter-general-rawat
Regardless Modi's lies about Chinese 'expansionist' policies, the Chinese actions in Ladakh and Southern Tibet are indeed a reaction to the Indian expansionist policies against all its neighboring countries. Starting with Sikkim, Indians slowly but consistently encroached into the areas (disputed or otherwise) of their neighboring countries during many past decades. Chinese have been monitoring all that with a deep concern but deliberately having their eyes closed on Indian repeated aggression. Ostensibly, Chinese refrained from making the LAC hot despite all Indian provocations until a proper time arrived.
In the meantime, Chinese have been advising Pakistan to put the Kashmir dispute on the backburner for the sake of regional development. Kashmir being the jugular vein of Pakistan, we did not completely push the issue to the back but tamed our policies in favor of backdoor channels. Indians, however, took it as our weakness and an opportunity for legitimizing their illegal occupation of the state of J&K.
Modi's well-planned move to unilaterally change the status of Indian occupied J&K completely disturbed the regional strategic landscape. The blunder made by Modi provided Chinese with all the reasons and justification to react the way they did. Indians initially thought that Chinese would relent on their move sooner than later especially after Indian convincing (read it as Modi's begging) and the status quo would be restored. The question is which status quo, pre or post Article 370 revocation, Indians wanted to restore? Apparently, Modi wishfully thought it to be the status quo of April 2020 as if nothing had happened on 5 August 2019.
Changing the status of disputed state of J&K (that included the Ladakh region too), Modi tried to impose the traditional Indian expansionist policy onto both Pakistan and China. It was clearly a move that sits in contradiction with international law and norm. A harsh response from both the countries was indeed expected. But how Modi could be so brainless fool expecting that both countries would be unable to effectively react and oppose Modi's illegal move. Chinese decided to do more than just react. They decided to teach the silly Modi a lesson. So they mobilized their forces along the LAC.
Chinese are not there for occupying a few strips here and there along their disputed border with India. Modi's plans to launch an attack on the Gilgit/Baltistan area to disrupt the Karakorum highway, which is the life line for the CPEC project, and then possibly bring in American/Israeli military personal in the vicinity of LAC, presented a far more grave strategic challenge for both China and Pakistan. It will be a self-deceptive thinking on Modi's part to expect Chinese to stay aloof from strategic Chinese interests and advance to no new areas beyond what they have already retrieved from Indian occupation. Given the delusions Indians love to live in, that is not a farfetched possibility though.
However, Chinese are known not to have half-baked plans. They are probably waiting for a suitable time for making their next move. Why should Chinese spend their costly bullets to eliminate Indian troops when the harsh weather can do that for them for free? Indians will have to move their men and equipment at the LAC. In short, Indians are in for a long-haul military campaign at the LAC and that too without proper infrastructure under a harsh weather while facing a mighty enemy. The initiative rests with Chinese and Modi's India can, at best, can only be a reactive weak party at the mercy of the enemy.
Given the Indian psyche, one should not really expect from a coward Modi and his incapable military showing any resistance to Chinese military at all. How can you expect a back-fight from a coward who cannot even publicly mention his enemy by its name just fearing Chinese will get antagonized? The fact is Chinese are already burning in anger against India because of the Modi's actions. Anyhow, attacking Chinese military and pushing them back is the least probable occurrence one can expect from such a spineless coward no matter how much fancy words Indians use to portray Modi as 56" chest Tarzan. In fact, Modi appears to a 56" tall brainless sheep when looked at through the prism of his actions.
