CriticalThought
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Good question.
Lets first understand how an AMRAAM behaves and what are the factors which enable us to determine the Su 30 kill.
There is a concept called 'Kill Validity". Even in flight S/L Hassan didn't know he has shot down a flanker for sure. Or the missile was a hit in other words. He was not certain. But, the air defense controllers confirmed it via the basic indicators such as range, speed, disappearance of the blip etc.
However the question arises. Can the AD guys be wrong? Yes they can be.
What happened next is; PAF's studied the ACMI and FDR data which reveal the actual speed of the AMRAAM at all stages, altitudes, entry and exit velocity and the g's acting on the missile throughout the flight. This is when something interesting came up.
Milliseconds before impact AMRAAM has a behavior of emitting 'cylindrical slugs'. Right before impact, these cylindrical slugs are disbanded and hit the source emitting the radar signals. You will have noticed holes in the aircrafts (similar to those shown in the movie behind enemy lines when F-18 is shot down by a radar guided SAM)
The ACMI and FDR data clearly show that slugs have disbanded and hit the intended target which was emitting the radar waves. Chaff is simply not powerful enough to misguide an AMRAAM to disband its slugs.
Furthermore, it has also been 'heard' the slugs had initially hit the forward section of the Su-30. Disintegrating it from the middle.
Now the final thing.
The claim that 4-5 AMRAAMs were fired is just absurd because. The pieces of AMRAAM shown at the press conference clearly depicts a detonated missile. AMRAAM does not detonate if it doesn't hit the intended target. Had AMRAAM crashed into a village or whatever their claim is. They would have found its warhead as well. In a bent form or whatever. Its not a pathaka which went bad after landing in India. Its $500,000 missile which has protocols to follow.
@MODS: Please tag/highlight this post after scrutiny since it answers a lot of questions. Thanks!
@Armchair @Oscar @The Accountant @Windjammer @Imran Khan @Hodor
@gambit we would be highly obliged if you could comment on this post. Thanks in advance.