Wow, an OPPO smartphone factory tour...

[maverick07]

Lee Kuan Yew's view was that India would be lucky to catch up with Brazil in per capita income and no more. But for China, Lee predicated that it could easily surpass Singapore in per capita income in the not too distant future.




To reach China's productivity level in a decade and a half, India needs to grow as fast as China has in the past 15 years, if not faster.

This is a simple matter of arithmetic. India's GDP is about $2 trillion today. Chinese GDP is around $11.4 trillion today. For India's GDP to grow to $11.4 trillion in 15 years, India needs to grow 12% per year every year until 2030.

India's official GDP growth rate is a lie made up by the Statistics Ministry, which miraculously added 3% to her GDP growth rate overnight. India's real growth rate is closer to 5.5%, based on all the component indicators such as service sector growth, industrial production growth, investment levels, etc. The component indicators have only improved slightly from 3 years ago.

At current pace, it will take more than 30 years for India to reach where China is today. Even if India manages a constant 7% annual growth rate, which it has never done before, it would take India 25 years to reach where China is today. If we go by India's average growth rate between 1992 and 2012, which is about 6.5%, it will take India 27 years to reach where China is today.

25 to 30 years is a very long time. Given India's life expectancy is only 65 years, many of our Indian forum members will be dead before India can catch up with China of today.

Good luck!

You are assuming a lot of things in your analysis above..... which is not true. Let me point out the facts:
1. India has been growing at average 7% per annum in the past twenty years since the reforms of the nineties
2. You consider India's stats to be a lie... but would happily buy China's stats of a $11 trillion GDP..... which added miraculously 20% more to its GDP a few years back and which grew phenomenally well during the global financial crisis when its exports markets crashed..... in fact this GDP of USD 11 trillion also a big lie in many ways as this is supplied by China's statistics ministry in a non transparent manner
3. India's life time expectancy will also rise accordingly so I will be able to reaffirm my comments which I make today
4. And India's growth will certainly grow faster than it did in the past as reforms are in the right track and investments are pouring from across the world including China indicating the expectation of faster growth (so they are putting their money where their mouth is)
5. And when I say productivity will catch up with China..... I am talking about productivity and not production (so your comparison of industrial production is not accurate)

Nope, Lee Kuan Yew never said the same thing with India. Here what he says.

I am not quoting Lee Kuan Yew.........What I am saying is what could have been said of China 30 years ago could certainly be said of India today, as we have the resource base and the resolve to achieve it...... no matter what the naysayers say (and we have heard them for too long to be of any use) so if you feel India is not going to grow, why are so many Chinese companies willing to invest in India

As far as the caste system is concerned, it has changed a lot.... we certainly have a long way to go to completely eliminate it. But a kind of caste system exists everywhere (its called a class) in the world including China (the very quotation referred to you above talks about descendants of illiterate farmers from Guangdong & Fujian is a testimony that China certainly was not a meritocracy at that time which if remedied over time means others can also catch up)

India as a nation state has been an inward looking country but that does not mean it will always remain so and certainly the spread of the diaspora changed India's view of the world and will continue to do so

 

[AndrewJin]

You are assuming a lot of things in your analysis above..... which is not true. Let me point out the facts:
1. India has been growing at average 7% per annum in the past twenty years since the reforms of the nineties
2. You consider India's stats to be a lie... but would happily buy China's stats of a $11 trillion GDP..... which added miraculously 20% more to its GDP a few years back and which grew phenomenally well during the global financial crisis when its exports markets crashed..... in fact this GDP of USD 11 trillion also a big lie in many ways as this is supplied by China's statistics ministry in a non transparent manner
3. India's life time expectancy will also rise accordingly so I will be able to reaffirm my comments which I make today
4. And India's growth will certainly grow faster than it did in the past as reforms are in the right track and investments are pouring from across the world including China indicating the expectation of faster growth (so they are putting their money where their mouth is)
5. And when I say productivity will catch up with China..... I am talking about productivity and not production (so your comparison of industrial production is not accurate)


I am not quoting Lee Kuan Yew.........What I am saying is what could have been said of China 30 years ago could certainly be said of India today, as we have the resource base and the resolve to achieve it...... no matter what the naysayers say (and we have heard them for too long to be of any use) so if you feel India is not going to grow, why are so many Chinese companies willing to invest in India

As far as the caste system is concerned, it has changed a lot.... we certainly have a long way to go to completely eliminate it. But a kind of caste system exists everywhere (its called a class) in the world including China (the very quotation referred to you above talks about descendants of illiterate farmers from Guangdong & Fujian is a testimony that China certainly was not a meritocracy at that time which if remedied over time means others can also catch up)

India as a nation state has been an inward looking country but that does not mean it will always remain so and certainly the spread of the diaspora changed India's view of the world and will continue to do so

https://defence.pk/threads/how-soci...meritocracy-shaped-the-middle-kingdom.444685/

Lee Kuan Yew's view was that India would be lucky to catch up with Brazil in per capita income and no more. But for China, Lee predicated that it could easily surpass Singapore in per capita income in the not too distant future.




To reach China's productivity level in a decade and a half, India needs to grow as fast as China has in the past 15 years, if not faster.

This is a simple matter of arithmetic. India's GDP is about $2 trillion today. Chinese GDP is around $11.4 trillion today. For India's GDP to grow to $11.4 trillion in 15 years, India needs to grow 12% per year every year until 2030.

India's official GDP growth rate is a lie made up by the Statistics Ministry, which miraculously added 3% to her GDP growth rate overnight. India's real growth rate is closer to 5.5%, based on all the component indicators such as service sector growth, industrial production growth, investment levels, etc. The component indicators have only improved slightly from 3 years ago.

At current pace, it will take more than 30 years for India to reach where China is today. Even if India manages a constant 7% annual growth rate, which it has never done before, it would take India 25 years to reach where China is today. If we go by India's average growth rate between 1992 and 2012, which is about 6.5%, it will take India 27 years to reach where China is today.

25 to 30 years is a very long time. Given India's life expectancy is only 65 years, many of our Indian forum members will be dead before India can catch up with China of today.

Good luck!

65 years? What?

 

[amused_burger]

Wow, what an imbecile salesman you are! Only the lowly of the lowest in India by your Chinese crap. As we pull up the peasants on our social ladder, the demand for your junk will go down. And the irony is that we lure your CCP idiots to invest in our country so that our poor reach a level where they no longer need to buy your photocopied trash. But till then, "Yes, sir, please have a seat."

 

[Jlaw]

Indians love to express their pride in India, but when given a chance, they'd rather all leave India for a better life.

Since 2006, Indians are the largest immigrants coming into Canada. Our immigration minister is making it harder for them to come over. Most were using fake marriages and defrauding the family reunification law of our immigration laws.

Wow, what an imbecile salesman you are! Only the lowly of the lowest in India by your Chinese crap. As we pull up the peasants on our social ladder, the demand for your junk will go down. And the irony is that we lure your CCP idiots to invest in our country so that our poor reach a level where they no longer need to buy your photocopied trash. But till then, "Yes, sir, please have a seat."

Your indian business leaders love our junk

Trade deficit between India and China has increased to USD 44.7 billion during April-January period of 2015-16, Parliament was informed today.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ion-in-april-january/articleshow/51223260.cms

https://defence.pk/threads/how-soci...meritocracy-shaped-the-middle-kingdom.444685/


65 years? What?

The PDF indians here will die before india can have GDP per capita equal to SS Africa.

 

[maverick07]

https://defence.pk/threads/how-soci...meritocracy-shaped-the-middle-kingdom.444685/


65 years? What?

Do not use strawman arguements..... answer queries to the point

 

[powastick]

I am not quoting Lee Kuan Yew.........What I am saying is what could have been said of China 30 years ago could certainly be said of India today, as we have the resource base and the resolve to achieve it...... no matter what the naysayers say (and we have heard them for too long to be of any use) so if you feel India is not going to grow, why are so many Chinese companies willing to invest in India

As far as the caste system is concerned, it has changed a lot.... we certainly have a long way to go to completely eliminate it. But a kind of caste system exists everywhere (its called a class) in the world including China (the very quotation referred to you above talks about descendants of illiterate farmers from Guangdong & Fujian is a testimony that China certainly was not a meritocracy at that time which if remedied over time means others can also catch up)

India as a nation state has been an inward looking country but that does not mean it will always remain so and certainly the spread of the diaspora changed India's view of the world and will continue to do so

I don't see the prerequisite exist in India. Lee Kuan Yew words weighs as he did what many can't. You can't call India a nation state when there are many races and many spoken languages.

 

[maverick07]

K

I don't see the prerequisite exist in India. Lee Kuan Yew words weighs as he did what many can't. You can't call India a nation state when there are many races and many spoken languages.

Lee Kuan Yew is outdated, many things have changed since then....

 

[powastick]

K

Lee Kuan Yew is outdated, many things have changed since then....

The basics never change.

 

[AndrewJin]

The basics never change.

So they don't like the outdated Lee....And dunno why those tamil in Singapore don't go back.....
And they also like to repeat the "outdated" East Asian way of development.....
That's the real outdated thing, now we are talking about automation and technological revolution in East Asia and Germany.
But they keep repeating the 20/30 years ago nonsense.....
Dunno what they can do with their demographic disaster in the era of the new technological revolution.

 

[maverick07]

So they don't like the outdated Lee....And dunno why those tamil in Singapore don't go back.....
And they also like to repeat the "outdated" East Asian way of development.....
That's the real outdated thing, now we are talking about automation and technological revolution in East Asia and Germany.
But they keep repeating the 20/30 years ago nonsense.....
Dunno what they can do with their demographic disaster in the era of the new technological revolution.

Are the Chinese go back to China? Also is Lee god who can never be wrong?
And what about people like Weber who said China and India will never develop in the 1920s being wronged in the 1990s and 2000s

 

[endyashainin]

Lee's views are hardly outdated. Economic development is Lee Kuan Yew's specialty. He's THE expert on this subject because he has delivered. The same cannot be said for ANY Indian leader. So when Lee talks about economic development and prospects for India, people need to pay attention.

 

[maverick07]

Lee's views are hardly outdated. Economic development is Lee Kuan Yew's specialty. He's THE expert on this subject because he has delivered. The same cannot be said for ANY Indian leader. So when Lee talks about economic development and prospects for India, people need to pay attention.

Was he also a sociologist who could also comment on Indian societal trends?

 

[endyashainin]

Was he also a sociologist who could also comment on Indian societal trends?

One could not have delivered an economic miracle without understanding people. Lee is not an academic, he's a practitioner with common sense. He could not have delivered one of the greatest economic miracles of all time without understanding people, society, and social trends. In fact, he could write books on sociology, and they'd be better than any of the ivory tower nonsense professional sociologists churn out.

 

[maverick07]

One could not have delivered an economic miracle without understanding people. Lee is not an academic, he's a practitioner with common sense. He could not have delivered one of the greatest economic miracles of all time without understanding people, society, and social trends. In fact, he could write books on sociology, and they'd be better than any of the ivory tower nonsense professional sociologists churn out.

That does not mean he is an expert either..... and also it does not mean that society remains stagnant... as I pointed out earlier, Max Weber "father of modern sociology" had written in early 1920s that China and India would never prosper because of their society.... and yet they did..... that itself is a counter example to show that society's never remain constant

In fact Singapore itself is a great example of societal changes...... a country which was inhabited by illiterate peasants in the 19th and early 20th century turned itself around after the Malayan expulsion of the 1960s

 

[endyashainin]

That does not mean he is an expert either..... and also it does not mean that society remains stagnant... as I pointed out earlier, Max Weber "father of modern sociology" had written in early 1920s that China and India would never prosper because of their society.... and yet they did..... that itself is a counter example to show that society's never remain constant

In fact Singapore itself is a great example of societal changes...... a country which was inhabited by illiterate peasants in the 19th and early 20th century turned itself around after the Malayan expulsion of the 1960s

You missed my point. Lee was not a theorist. He was a practitioner. Lee didn't write bullshit books. He didn't like theories. Lee DID it. He DELIVERED. He succeeded because he UNDERSTOOD.

Sociologists are not experts; they are bullshitters. The only thing these liberal arts types are good at is bullshitting.

Nothing in India has changed to the extent that would make Lee wrong about India. Nothing at all. Indians are still argumentative, fragmented, beholden to the caste system, have low literacy and numeracy rates, poor education levels, poor nutrition, and poor health care. All of these things are the same and are unlikely to improve drastically, and therefore India's potential is far inferior to that of China. Lee was and remains absolutely correct in his assessment.