Winning chance against China is zero, according to Japanese war simulation

[A.P. Richelieu]

If Tokyo is bombed, USA will be deterred by their own survival instinct so they will have a good long debate about whether to help Japan. The war will be over well before any conclusion is reached.

Our General Yin Zhuo already declared on state-owned TV that we will use nuke if any nuclear attack is launched from a naval vessel or aircraft based in Japan or US homeland. This is considered defensive use of our nuclear weapons.

Hitler made the assumption that noone would defend Poland.

How long did it take for NATO to make a statement after the Russian aircraft violating
Turkey's air space and was shot down?

US forces are already in Japan so it is an easy decision to take a defensive pose and shoot down any Chinese
daring to violate Japanese air space.

I doubt that China would want to go to war with any US ally.
So far it has not even tried to invade Taiwan.
Feel welcome to produce more hot air here at PDF.

 

[BuddhaPalm]

Hitler made the assumption that noone would defend Poland.

How long did it take for NATO to make a statement after the Russian aircraft violating
Turkey's air space and was shot down?

US forces are already in Japan so it is an easy decision to take a defensive pose and shoot down any Chinese
daring to violate Japanese air space.

I doubt that China would want to go to war with any US ally.
So far it has not even tried to invade Taiwan.
Feel welcome to produce more hot air here at PDF.

LOL you can produce a statement quite quickly I am sure. You are good at that!

Moreover, you said it yourself just now: a defensive posture around existing USA bases in Japan will be the first reaction. This is a relatively low degree of intervention for USA. We can shower Tokyo with cruise and ballistic missiles with impunity.

Finally, we did try to attack Taiwan in 1996 but USA intervention stopped us. After 20 years, we believe we have the capability to overcome both American and Japanese intervention to prevail in Taiwan so the military action card is very much in Beijing's hand.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

LOL you can produce a statement quite quickly I am sure. You are good at that!

Moreover, you said it yourself just now: a defensive posture around existing USA bases in Japan will be the first reaction. This is a relatively low degree of intervention for USA. We can shower Tokyo with cruise and ballistic missiles with impunity.

Finally, we did try to attack Taiwan in 1996 but USA intervention stopped us. After 20 years, we believe we have the capability to overcome both American and Japanese intervention to prevail in Taiwan so the military action card is very much in Beijing's hand.

Watch Chinas economy go down the drains afterwards regardless of the outcome.
Watch CCP beeing overthrown as a result...
Maybe that would be good for the Chinese.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

the 'we just care about defending ourselves' jsut doesnt work- stepping out and is China's destiny

Sunzibingfa:

An offense is the best defense: a defense is to prepare for an offense.

To concentrate military strategy on just homeland defense is a flawed thinking. Its like the Ming emperor ordering the overseas expeditions to stop after the 7th century.

The best defense is to fight a war on other's turf before they have the chance to come to yours.

Hence, stepping out is China's destiny- both economically n militarily.

Any Chinese military planner that do no plan supply bases/lines right to the doorstep of the US should be stripped of his position or 拉去枪毙。

 

[samsara]

Watch Chinas economy go down the drains afterwards regardless of the outcome.
Watch CCP beeing overthrown as a result...
Maybe that would be good for the Chinese.

Do not exaggerate. No sane nation will go war without strong reasons (except the warmonger!). In particular not the rising China, which is winning economically. Mostly just losers that will resort to war to achieve their objectives, or divert the domestic economic hardships. If China goes war it means its Red Line is crossed by the adversary (not the kind of Obama's red line as drawn in the sand). If nations go war of course all sides will suffer, though the severity of each may differ.

But if any other nation has the tendency to do the bully, it "may" not serve China's own interest to back off nowadays, not even in dealing with the USA. For a retreat may be taken wrongly as a sign of weakness and adversary may even act more reckless and dangerous. It's complicated matter, up to the leadership to decide the proper response, yet the general public attitude/feeling/response will play into factor... we can only guess.

In the case of Japan, as long as Japan don't interfere into the Taiwan's affairs; don't hard occupy or do the constructions on the Diaoyu Islands (just let it be pending issue,maintain the status quo), don't be busy body in the SCS,don't act foolishly in the Miyako Strait/First Island Chain then there won't be war,. Due to the very bitter historical reasons, if Japan acts foolishly to make the 1st salvo, then the island nation will much regret its mistake for long time for China will repay its treatments plus dividends plus interests... from the past unsettled accounts, and they're of huge bills...

The Japanese people should pray that their hawkish ultra-nationalists like Abe, Aso, Inada and their cohort are limited to posturing only, not instigating the real hot exchanges with China, or better again they simply vote this hawkish gang out and replace them with more peace seeking leaders. Japan's future mainly lies in the Asian neighborhood.

 

[lonelyman]

Lol...I not even gonna waste my time arguing. Seriously delusional bunch of people.

stop wasting time with those Indian jokers

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

stop wasting time with those Indian jokers

Low IQ Indians are constantly praying for china's doomsday to come in order to alleviate their own jealousy.

U nv hear about any Chinese calling for the fall of any Indian parties, yet there are always countless Bharati Sadhus in here constantly praying for/predicting the fall of the China Dream-realising CPC.


F##k chini autocracy!
Long live Hindi chaoticracy!

JAI HIND~

 

[lonelyman]

Low IQ Indians are constantly praying for china's doomsday to come in order to alleviate their own jealousy.

A place 500 million open shit in the air, a place even has to import bullets and rifles, but boasting 'focusing' on high end missiles development and already a supa powa.

Why wasting time with these jokers?

 

[SarthakGanguly]

basrani bjany waly larna kya jany

Is this some new anti Hindu phrase? Me likes.

 

[terranMarine]

Watch Chinas economy go down the drains afterwards regardless of the outcome.
Watch CCP beeing overthrown as a result...
Maybe that would be good for the Chinese.

Now that's a joke, you sound like as if China is trying to provoke a war with Japan first. In case you can't use logic it is Japan who is provoking China in the SCS issue which has nothing to do with Japan. China is the one that is warning US and its dog to stay out of the SCS island disputes. The consequences will rest on Japan's shoulders if Abe wishes to play such dangerous games. China shall defend her territory and won't shy away using force. You think China's economy would collapse and CCP will be overthrown? China's ballistic missiles can easily cover Japan and turn Tokyo into ground zero if Japan doesn't watch out. Japan's economy would be in shreds while China's economy would sustain damage but who is the one gonna suffer the most? You don't have to be Einstein to figure out what the devastating effects for Japan would be if China and Japan would go to war. If you think CCP would be overthrown then clearly you have zero clue about the nationalism and patriotism which harbors inside the people's hearts in Mainland. China doesn't have to capture Japanese land, it simply has to destroy it with our missiles. The question you should be asking are Japs and Yankees brave enough to send troops to China facing the largest army.

 

[anon45]

Let me point out two point between this point you make and the last point you make.

1.) You said in your last point.



But in this post, you said China won't and don't need to conquer Japan, and the main battle ground is SCS and its island, if this is the case, then why would Japanese have to surrender if they want to survive their race as you said? A battle in South China Seas will not make Japanese extinct, unless of course everyone in Japan swam to SCS and fight the Chinese.

2.) Why would Japanese need to fight a war in South China Seas in the first place? They have no strategic interest in it, nor do they need to reach that far to touch China and Chinese Air Force or Navy.

The problem for you again, is that you have simplified the whole battle scenario and willingly think your enemy will follow your move. if the battle ground is in SCS, the only thing Japan need to do is to close off the top part of the japanese home island and do not allow the Chinese to get in, and if the China want t fight the Japanese, The Japanese will probably wait til the Chinese steam up and fight in their turf in japan sea or East China Sea. For which they can bring the combinaton of land, air and sea power on the Chinese.

In a strategic sense, there are no urge for Japanese to start any battle, they are smaller than the Chinese and they don't need to start the battle, let the Chinese take the initiative and engage Japan with the location of their choosing.

And no, even if US is to engage on the Japanese side in the SCS situation (which is odd to have a war in SCS with Japan to begin with) the US will not get into the SCS island chain, they will simply support the Japanese and hold off both Philippine Seas and Japan Seas together, when China can get nothing in and out, they would have to attack, instead of Japan. and since Japan is outside of China, and face an open oceans, China can never blockade Japan, but a combination of JPN and US force, on the other hand, can blockade the Chinese with a choke hold of Japan Seas and Philippine Seas, and it will force China to fight in a 2 pronge war. If US got involved in the SCS with Japan, China cannot win a 2 pronge war with Japan and US seperately.

The article is about a War between China and Japan in East China seas not South China seas, and to engage the Japanese in East China Seas, the Chinese MUST Attack and hold the surrounding Island or else they will pay a high price on winning a war with the Japanese, and that is the reason why I said what I said before. Eventually the China will win a battle in East China Seas, but how much of their ships and aircraft have to lose before it can reach that target is another matter, the same reason why China did not attack and recapture Taiwan for now.

Well said, China and Japan aren't the only players. Even if Japan and China went mano a mano and China wins, If China's navy takes a beating in the process ( There is no reason to believe it wouldn't). The US could and would simply mop it up. The 7th fleet is still in Japan.


And the df-21 is not a wonder weapon.

Aside from the general difficulty of hitting a ship without a forward spotter and the fact that being unable to differentiate the missile with a nuclear launch making launching them in swarms a very very risky move, The US has proven the capability to shoot them down

http://defense-update.com/20161215_sm6_dual_vs_mrbm.html

 

[ashok321]

Japan is under the US nuclear umbrella protection.

 

[jhungary]

Well said, China and Japan aren't the only players. Even if Japan and China went mano a mano and China wins, If China's navy takes a beating in the process ( There is no reason to believe it wouldn't). The US could and would simply mop it up. The 7th fleet is still in Japan.


And the df-21 is not a wonder weapon.

Aside from the general difficulty of hitting a ship without a forward spotter and the fact that being unable to differentiate the missile with a nuclear launch making launching them in swarms a very very risky move, The US has proven the capability to shoot them down

http://defense-update.com/20161215_sm6_dual_vs_mrbm.html

I remember the first thing they taught us in Officer Candidate School.

"You cannot just think of a single battle, what happens next is as important, sometime more important than the battle itself"

In an academic sense, which means stragetically, a single battle contribute little to a war, You also need to considerthe operational objective and how it would affect the overall strategic objective. And this is the exact topic I am researching for my Master in Philosophy degrees. I may actually use this as an example.

You can I can talk about how a single battle can be won and lose, unless the war ends there (which never happened in history) you will need to think of the next stage of the operational planning. If China can win a quick war with few casualty and a few unit lost, that's great, it will give the Chinese a free hand to plan for or react to whatever comes next. The problem is, if a war is going to be too costly to win. Even if you have won that particular battle, You have no operational strength to go on and other objectives.

Let's say in the best cacse, the lost rate is one on one with Japan, that means the Chiense would have lost about 300 front line aircraft,and that is 1/3 of all deployable Chinese Airpower, and most of them are old F-7,F-8,and only leave 2/3 of the remaining airpower tasked with defending China and as a forward deployable force, no matter how you slice it, It's stratching too thin.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Do not exaggerate. No sane nation will go war without strong reasons (except the warmonger!). In particular not the rising China, which is winning economically. Mostly just losers that will resort to war to achieve their objectives, or divert the domestic economic hardships. If China goes war it means its Red Line is crossed by the adversary (not the kind of Obama's red line as drawn in the sand). If nations go war of course all sides will suffer, though the severity of each may differ.

But if any other nation has the tendency to do the bully, it "may" not serve China's own interest to back off nowadays, not even in dealing with the USA. For a retreat may be taken wrongly as a sign of weakness and adversary may even act more reckless and dangerous. It's complicated matter, up to the leadership to decide the proper response, yet the general public attitude/feeling/response will play into factor... we can only guess.

In the case of Japan, as long as Japan don't interfere into the Taiwan's affairs; don't hard occupy or do the constructions on the Diaoyu Islands (just let it be pending issue,maintain the status quo), don't be busy body in the SCS,don't act foolishly in the Miyako Strait/First Island Chain then there won't be war,. Due to the very bitter historical reasons, if Japan acts foolishly to make the 1st salvo, then the island nation will much regret its mistake for long time for China will repay its treatments plus dividends plus interests... from the past unsettled accounts, and they're of huge bills...

The Japanese people should pray that their hawkish ultra-nationalists like Abe, Aso, Inada and their cohort are limited to posturing only, not instigating the real hot exchanges with China, or better again they simply vote this hawkish gang out and replace them with more peace seeking leaders. Japan's future mainly lies in the Asian neighborhood.

I agree that no nation involved in the current disputes have any real desire to go to war,
but China would, like Russia, suffer from trade sanctions.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

If india will sell LR SAM to Japan, None of their aircraft or cruise missile come closer that 100 KM. They will be shot down with 100% kill accuracy.

Well, I think Japan has the ability to make advanced missiles. Does not need the help of India the “Brown movement” missile.
Prior to this, India should worry about their 20 days of arms inventory...

Watch Chinas economy go down the drains afterwards regardless of the outcome.
Watch CCP beeing overthrown as a result...
Maybe that would be good for the Chinese.

Chinese recession to what extent. I don't know.
But it's not too bad.
1, China is still the world's largest shipbuilding country and exporter.
2, China is still the world's third largest arms exporter.
3, China is still the world's largest high-speed train manufacturers.
4, China's industrial output is still the world's first.
Therefore, the industrial structure is different. Rather than dreaming of the collapse of China, it is better to imagine Russia occupying sweden.