Will US Ground India’s Tejas, C-17, C-130 and P17A stealth frigates?CAATSA sanctions

[punit]

Trump.is crazy but not that crazy.

 

[GodToons]

SOURCE: ABHOY ROY / FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG

India’s defense acquisitions council has given its final approval to an agreement to purchase S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia, despite Washington’s opposition, S-400 procurement most likely will see the wrath of the United States Government on India since no exemptions were given to India not only on procurement of S-400 system but also on existing procurement plans of purchase of frigates and Joint venture with Russian companies on BrahMos-NG and BrahMos-2K .

Under the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) virtually dealings with all Russian defense companies are banned that means even procurement of any new weapons system or additional capabilities to the existing systems will attract US Scanners and it will simply be of no use for India even if it drops plans to procure S-400 from Russia .

One way or the other CAATSA will affect India’s dealing with Russia in support of existing systems in service for decades. Worst case scenarios according to Indian defense analysts are that US Defence Companies might be reframed from participating in Indian tenders clearing paths for European and Russian companies in various defense tenders which New Delhi will float in coming years.

With CAATSA Sanctions, United States wants India to slowly move away from Russia and start procuring US Arms thus boosting its own export of weapons to India but it is unlikely to happen due to trust deficit which New Delhi and Washington have harbored against each other even after both countries have concluded defence deals worth billions of dollars in last two decades .

Under provisions available in CAATSA, US Government can up its heat on India and might even force US-based Defence companies from backing off from on-going contractual obligations with defense contracts signed with New Delhi even risking providing maintenance support for the defense equipment that India has already bought from the US.

Indian Defence analysts call it Doomsdays scenario unlikely to happen but if it does become a reality then US-based Defence companies will not only be kicked out of India and Blacklisted. Angry New Delhi might even allow inspection of this sensitive systems to Russian and Europeans experts to help them manage in absence of US support which US Defence companies fear the most.

It is unlikely that US Government will carry out any such stupid moves which can harm its Interest in India but under President Donald Trump presidency almost all major American allies have seen unwanted heat from US administration and discomfort even when there are clear signs that US actions against its own allies are only helping rise of China in the new global order .

Kite flying

 

[randomradio]

US will not sanctions India over any Indo-Russia deal, whether it's a previously worked on deal or a future deal.

Status quo will be maintained because the Americans know fully well that India will choose Russia over the US when it comes to weapons systems.

In reality, it's a bigger dilemma for the US than it is for India. US will come across as an unreliable arms exporter which will lead to a loss of billions of $s. More importantly, it will lose out on a strategic partner across the Indian Ocean.

The only project that will suffer greatly is Tejas but if this has to happen, it's not a bad time for it, since Tejas Mark 2 has not hit the prototype stage yet. There will be delays but it won't stall the project. AMCA will also take a hit but then again, it is still in the infant stages.

The ball is in US's court.

No, the US will not sanction such small stuff like engines. We are talking about "weapons", stuff that shoots stuff that explodes. So armed drones is one of them.

We will still be able to buy and maintain C-130s, P-8s, M777, Apache etc, since they predate CAATSA. And of course the aeroengines for Tejas and AMCA also.

But if it does happen, it will end US-India defence relations for good, permanently.

 

[faithfulguy]

US will not sanctions India over any Indo-Russia deal, whether it's a previously worked on deal or a future deal.

Status quo will be maintained because the Americans know fully well that India will choose Russia over the US when it comes to weapons systems.



No, the US will not sanction such small stuff like engines. We are talking about "weapons", stuff that shoots stuff that explodes. So armed drones is one of them.

We will still be able to buy and maintain C-130s, P-8s, M777, Apache etc, since they predate CAATSA. And of course the aeroengines for Tejas and AMCA also.

But if it does happen, it will end US-India defence relations for good, permanently.

I agree that US will not sanction India. Because India will eventually terminate all Russian military contracts once Trump give Modi a new nickname.

 

[Ajaxpaul]

When are we getting another nuke submarine from Russia.

 

[MimophantSlayer]

If it ever happens, that is billions lost for the American military industrial complex.
And if we know anything about anything it's that the American military industrial complex has amazing lobbying capability.

 

[Isotope]

US will continue to boost ties with India not hurt its ties with them. India is needed to counter China. Once upon a time Pakistan was US's blue eyed boy in containing communism in that region. Nations are just pawns and minor pieces on a sweeping chessboard for the United States, and for many conservative analysts, India was never seen as a great nation in its own right, but simply as a bulwark against Beijing. Even once Beijing was viewed favorably as a bulwark against the Soviet Union. It's a big chess game which I am sure seasoned Indian diplomats who are very good at international relationships understand too well.