TankGirl
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The RD-93 engine for the FC-1 has very interesting implications for the Indo-Russia relationship. Was it a diplomatic victory for China and Pakistan or quite the opposite? The entire rational for Pakistan going for the RD-93 is that they could not depend on American F-16s as they were prone to sanctions. The JF-17 was touted as a much more dependable and cheaper sanction proof alternative. But all of that seems to have gone down the drain with the use of the Russian RD-93 engine in the platform. Was the entire episode a diplomatic loss for India or did Delhi actually think that the deal could be used to India's advantage at a later point.
The entire quagmire hinges on the replacement of engines and maintenance during times of crisis. The first thing to note is that jet engines are not as dependable as a layman would think. The Rd-93 engine has a serviceable life of just around 2000 hours and is much more prone to burning out compared to Western engines. The most likely tactic used by Pakistani pilots against numerically and technically superior Indian fighters would be bait and run. But in the process of "running" the Russian engines might be pushed to the limits and would have to be replaced before the Jet can be used again. Now comes the real problem; will Russia allow huge quantities of the engine to be exported to Pakistan or China during times of crisis with India? Even now the engine is only being purchased by China in limited quantities and will not account for spares in the long run.
Of course the standard retort to any such questions will be the use of a Chinese engine whenever such a situation arises. But then, that also has it's own issues. The WS-9 and the WP-14 are out of the question, which only leaves the WS-13 which is specifically developed for the FC-1. But the failure of the Chinese to develop a reliable jet engine is well known and the WS-13 has just started flying according to some accounts. Even western manufacturers with decades of experience take at least 10 years to flight test an engine till it is considered mature enough to be used in serial production aircraft. Will the Chinese managed to do so in the same time frame and more importantly, will the engine be a reasonable replacement for the RD-93. Not to mention that re-engining the JF-17 is not simply a matter of taking out the old engine, putting in a different one and connecting all the wires. China would be able to adapt another engine for the FC-1 without much trouble, but Pakistani technicians will face serious issues if they attempt to do this by themselves with a different engine.
Another question that comes to mind is whether the Chinese will be willing to spend a huge amount of money on the WS-13 when the engine might not have any role in the PLAAF's future fighters. If the FC-1 does not garner a significant export market, will the Chinese spend a considerable amount of their own money just to ensure that the Pakistani's are not dependent on the Russian engine? And of course in the worst case scenario of Sino-Pakistani relations souring, the JF-17 may become a white elephant and the Pakistani air-force will be instantaneously crippled.
In it's attempt to insulate itself from US technology sanctions, did Pakistan just jump from the frying pan into the fire? Will the Russian engine be the Achilles heel of the Pakistan's ambitious JF-17 program? If the Chinese miraculously manage to perfect the WS-13 in a short time-frame and transfer the technology to Pakistan, then it would not be an issue. However, if this does not happen, the Indians and the Russians might just have the last laugh.
