Will Gwadar Grow to Become a Major Metropolis Like Shenzhen?

[niaz]

I have also come across claims that after it been dredged to 20 meter draft and ability to berth 400 meter long 20,000 TEU class (carrying 20 K, 20 foot containers) container ships, by 2040 Gwadar could have the capacity to handle 400-million tons cargo.

A 20 Ft container can carry maximum of about 21,600 kg or about 21.6- metric ton of cargo. Jebel Ali, largest container port in the region, handles about 14-million TEU or about 302-million tons of cargo. Will Gwadar exceed this level?

Gwadar may expand to having a theoretical capacity of 400-million ton, but even if Gwadar port can actually break 100-million ton barrier by 2040, it would be great. Remember Karachi port current throughput is only about 45-million tons

 

[VCheng]

I have also come across claims that after it been dredged to 20 meter draft and ability to berth 400 meter long 20,000 TEU class (carrying 20 K, 20 foot containers) container ships, by 2040 Gwadar could have the capacity to handle 400-million tons cargo.

A 20 Ft container can carry maximum of about 21,600 kg or about 21.6- metric ton of cargo. Jebel Ali, largest container port in the region, handles about 14-million TEU or about 302-million tons of cargo. Will Gwadar exceed this level?

Gwadar may expand to having a theoretical capacity of 400-million ton, but even if Gwadar port can actually break 100-million ton barrier by 2040, it would be great. Remember Karachi port current throughput is only about 45-million tons

I think it is important to realize that Pakistan's commitment to Gawadar is unmistakable. Therefore, all the claims being made currently, exaggerated as they may seem, must be given some time to be realized. Judgement must be reserved for now.

 

[protest]

#China Turning #Pakistan's #Gwadar Port Into Regional Giant. #CPEC

https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-china-gwadar-port/4084175.html

An unprecedented Chinese financial and construction effort is rapidly developing Pakistan’s strategically located Arabian Sea port of Gwadar into one of the world’s largest transit and transshipment cargo facilities.

The deep water port lies at the convergence of three of the most commercially important regions of the world, the oil-rich Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia.

Beijing is developing Gwadar as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, known as CPEC. The two countries launched the 15-year joint mega project in 2015 when President Xi Jinping visited Islamabad.

Under the cooperation deal construction or improvement of highways, railways, pipelines, power plants, communications and industrial zones is underway in Pakistan with an initially estimated Chinese investment of $46 billion.

The aim is to link Gwadar to landlocked western China, including its Muslim-majority Xinjiang region, giving it access to a shorter and secure route through Pakistan to global trade. The port will also provide the shortest route to landlocked Central Asian countries, including Afghanistan, through transit trade and offering transshipment facilities.

Chinese fuel imports and trading cargo will be loaded on trucks and ferried to and from Xinjiang through the Karakoram Highway, snaking past snow-caped peaks in northern Pakistan.

‘Qualitative change’

Gwadar will be able to handle about one million tons of cargo annually by the end of the year. Officials anticipate that with expansion plans under way, the port will become South Asia’s biggest shipping center within five years, with a yearly capacity of handling 13-million tons of cargo. And by 2030, they say, it will be capable of handling up to 400-million tons of cargo annually.

China has in recent months begun calling CPEC the flagship project of its global Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI. The “qualitative change” from an experimental project to flagship project underscores the importance Beijing attaches to CPEC, said Zhao Lijian, the deputy chief of mission at the Chinese embassy in Islamabad.

Out of 39 “early harvest” projects under CPEC, 19 have since been completed or are under construction with a Chinese investment of about $18.5 billion, Lijian told VOA. The progress makes it the fastest developing of all of at least six BRI’s corridors China plans to establish, added the Chinese diplomat.

How is 13 million tons of cargo, South Asia's largest?

 

[Imad.Khan]

After reading through the posts so far, i can summarize the whole thread below

Pakistanis: our chicken(Gwader) will lay alot of eggs
Indians: No your chicken will not lay eggs

Pakistanis: Our chicken will lay 500 eggs
Indians: No way will your chicken lay 500 eggs, our chicken already lays 400 eggs.

Pakistanis: Our chicken will bring prosperity to our house
Indians: No it will not, it will not even lay eggs, its just for show and will be waste of money just like the other chickens (Reko Dik) and (Thar Coal).

Pakistanis: Yes....................
Indians: No........................

Pakistanis: Yes....................
Indians: No........................

Pakistanis: Yes....................
Indians: No........................

And the story continues...........................

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Imad.Khan

Ha, ha, ... thats a very good summing up.

Regards

 

[Samlee]

I have also come across claims that after it been dredged to 20 meter draft and ability to berth 400 meter long 20,000 TEU class (carrying 20 K, 20 foot containers) container ships, by 2040 Gwadar could have the capacity to handle 400-million tons cargo.

A 20 Ft container can carry maximum of about 21,600 kg or about 21.6- metric ton of cargo. Jebel Ali, largest container port in the region, handles about 14-million TEU or about 302-million tons of cargo. Will Gwadar exceed this level?

Gwadar may expand to having a theoretical capacity of 400-million ton, but even if Gwadar port can actually break 100-million ton barrier by 2040, it would be great. Remember Karachi port current throughput is only about 45-million tons

Sir That Is Because Karachi Only Has A Depth Of Around 12 m (Although There Are Plans To Expand It).This Limits It To A Feeder Port And Our Exports and Imports Have To Be Rerouted Through Dubai Or Singapore.There Is No Way You Can Compare Karachi With Gwadar

The Real Game Changer At Gwadar Would Be An Oil Refinery.You Sir Ships Have To Pass Through A Narrow And At Times Perilous Strait of Hormuz To Get Refueled and/or Repaired.This Takes Them And Extra 5 Days In Total At Least.Considering That The Daily Rates Back in 2012 Were $140000 per Day Which Now Has Fallen To $50000 in 2015.If Such Facilities Are Available in Gwadar These Ships Could Easily Dock There and Get Serviced.(This Is Why Some People Claim That Dubai Is Conspiring Against Gwadar Although I Don't Believe That).

Also Please Understand That As Economies Grow So Does The Demand Hence The Port Traffic Will Naturally Grow

And It's Not Just Transshipment, Gwadar Is A Multidimensional Port It Is Also Meant For Transit Trade For China(esp. Xinjiang) and Central Asia

How is 13 million tons of cargo, South Asia's largest?

You Ignored The 400 Million Figure

 

[protest]

Sir That Is Because Karachi Only Has A Depth Of Around 12 m (Although There Are Plans To Expand It).This Limits It To A Feeder Port And Our Exports and Imports Have To Be Rerouted Through Dubai Or Singapore.There Is No Way You Can Compare Karachi With Gwadar

The Real Game Changer At Gwadar Would Be An Oil Refinery.You Sir Ships Have To Pass Through A Narrow And At Times Perilous Strait of Hormuz To Get Refueled and/or Repaired.This Takes Them And Extra 5 Days In Total At Least.Considering That The Daily Rates Back in 2012 Were $140000 per Day Which Now Has Fallen To $50000 in 2015.If Such Facilities Are Available in Gwadar These Ships Could Easily Dock There and Get Serviced.(This Is Why Some People Claim That Dubai Is Conspiring Against Gwadar Although I Don't Believe That).

Also Please Understand That As Economies Grow So Does The Demand Hence The Port Traffic Will Naturally Grow

And It's Not Just Transshipment, Gwadar Is A Multidimensional Port It Is Also Meant For Transit Trade For China(esp. Xinjiang) and Central Asia



You Ignored The 400 Million Figure

Please, at least read what i qouted.

Gwadar will be able to handle about one million tons of cargo annually by the end of the year. Officials anticipate that with expansion plans under way, the port will become South Asia’s biggest shipping center within five years, with a yearly capacity of handling 13-million tons of cargo.

How does above read differ from what I surmised.

 

[maravan91]

You Ignored The 400 Million Figure

Your largest and busiest port in Pakistan annual handling is 26 millions. Karachi port itself is operating with 45% occupancy rate. This is the reason even your traders r not using gwadar port.From where you will get 400 million cargos

 

[Shah Khalid]

Sir That Is Because Karachi Only Has A Depth Of Around 12 m (Although There Are Plans To Expand It).This Limits It To A Feeder Port And Our Exports and Imports Have To Be Rerouted Through Dubai Or Singapore.There Is No Way You Can Compare Karachi With Gwadar

The Real Game Changer At Gwadar Would Be An Oil Refinery.You Sir Ships Have To Pass Through A Narrow And At Times Perilous Strait of Hormuz To Get Refueled and/or Repaired.This Takes Them And Extra 5 Days In Total At Least.Considering That The Daily Rates Back in 2012 Were $140000 per Day Which Now Has Fallen To $50000 in 2015.If Such Facilities Are Available in Gwadar These Ships Could Easily Dock There and Get Serviced.(This Is Why Some People Claim That Dubai Is Conspiring Against Gwadar Although I Don't Believe That).

Also Please Understand That As Economies Grow So Does The Demand Hence The Port Traffic Will Naturally Grow

And It's Not Just Transshipment, Gwadar Is A Multidimensional Port It Is Also Meant For Transit Trade For China(esp. Xinjiang) and Central Asia

So That Is Why Faisal Reza Abidi Talks About "Gwadar Mega Oil City"

 

[Samlee]

Your largest and busiest port in Pakistan annual handling is 26 millions. Karachi port itself is operating with 45% occupancy rate. This is the reason even your traders r not using gwadar port.From where you will get 400 million cargos

Gwadar Is Not Being Used Because The Links With Pakistan's Hinterland Have Not Been Established Yet And Secondly Karachi Is Operating At Less Than Capacity Because The Economy It Is Supposed To Serve Is Operating At Less Than Full Capacity.The Energy Crisis and The Flawed Policies Of The PML N Government Has Lead To Closure of Factories and Many More Industries Operating At Less Than Capacity

Please, at least read what i qouted.



How does above read differ from what I surmised.

The Article You Were Responding To Said The Port Will Become Asia's Largest With 400 Million Ton Capacity By 2030.It Did Not Say That It Is Asia's Largest Right Now

 

[RISING SUN]

One of my biggest concerns about Gwadar and CPEC in general is that there seems to be this underlying tone that the Chinese will do everything and prosperity will jump into our mouths, like a ladoo. The Chinese will do everything that benefits the interests of China and that they have agreed to do to attain that benefit.

The real benefit can only be attained by working just as hard on our side, or even harder to gain benefit.

If the Chinese are building roads, are we only going to provide truck drivers, chai wallas and petrol pumps for those roads? Or will we build industrial parks, link roads to groups of villages near there, start ups to operate at those industrial parks.

If the Chinese build factories will be provide only manual labour and natural resources? Or will we provide companies who provide parts and become part of the supply chains of these factories?

If the Chinese provide electricity will we provide the network to provide supply to rural places, or to ensure uninterrupted supply?

10 years later will we have Pakistani manufacturers making and selling Pakistani goods via Gwadar? What will flow from Pakistan into China? Will it continue to be raw marble, or will we be making goods using that marble? Will we be selling timber or goods made from timber? What Pakistani designed services will Chinese be using?

Will we integrate our universities who have engineering departments with companies who are manufacturing goods in Pakistan? Will those companies have offices in our cities with R&D and office type roles, or simply factories?

How many Chinese will work here? How many Pakistani will we train to do those same jobs?

If we start eating Noodles, will they start eating Biriyani? Will there be cultural exchange? How many Pakistani's will know 50 Chinese words? How many Chinese will know 50 urdu words?

These kinds of questions must be answered by the government, industrialists and people of Pakistan - not by China.

Just one word, "Wowwwww". @Imran Khan @waz there was a thread on rational thinking and how to raise doubts even on pillers of our country, I honestly think this poster does deserves the kudos to point out his doubts in very well mannered way and still comes out "thinker" type which everybody keeps discussing in threads after threads.

 

[Clutch]

I hope it does...

 

[protest]

Gwadar Is Not Being Used Because The Links With Pakistan's Hinterland Have Not Been Established Yet And Secondly Karachi Is Operating At Less Than Capacity Because The Economy It Is Supposed To Serve Is Operating At Less Than Full Capacity.The Energy Crisis and The Flawed Policies Of The PML N Government Has Lead To Closure of Factories and Many More Industries Operating At Less Than Capacity



The Article You Were Responding To Said The Port Will Become Asia's Largest With 400 Million Ton Capacity By 2030.It Did Not Say That It Is Asia's Largest Right Now

Seriously, i quoted directly from the article. Did you even read it?

 

[niaz]

Sir That Is Because Karachi Only Has A Depth Of Around 12 m (Although There Are Plans To Expand It).This Limits It To A Feeder Port And Our Exports and Imports Have To Be Rerouted Through Dubai Or Singapore.There Is No Way You Can Compare Karachi With Gwadar

The Real Game Changer At Gwadar Would Be An Oil Refinery.You Sir Ships Have To Pass Through A Narrow And At Times Perilous Strait of Hormuz To Get Refueled and/or Repaired.This Takes Them And Extra 5 Days In Total At Least.Considering That The Daily Rates Back in 2012 Were $140000 per Day Which Now Has Fallen To $50000 in 2015.If Such Facilities Are Available in Gwadar These Ships Could Easily Dock There and Get Serviced.(This Is Why Some People Claim That Dubai Is Conspiring Against Gwadar Although I Don't Believe That).

Also Please Understand That As Economies Grow So Does The Demand Hence The Port Traffic Will Naturally Grow

And It's Not Just Transshipment, Gwadar Is A Multidimensional Port It Is Also Meant For Transit Trade For China(esp. Xinjiang) and Central Asia

You Ignored The 400 Million Figure

Pardon me but I don’t get the bit about the oil ships.

Having spent all my working life in the petroleum industry, I happen to know a little about oil industry. Most of the vessels anchor at a Fujairah or at Khor Fakkan awaiting fixture. Both of these ports are outside Strait of Hormuz. Having worked and lived at Fujairah for 5 years, I know this for a fact.

For the record current daily rate for VLCC (>200K DWT) is in the $30K range, for Suez Max (160K DWT) about $17K and for AFRA Max (100K DWT) about $12K. http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/WeberWeekly18-17.pdf

Secondly, average sailing time to the northern most gulf ports (Kuwait, Basra, and Kharg Island) from Fujairah is no more than 3 days at 10 knots. Finally, the refinery at Gwadar, if & when it is built would be about 300 K bbl. per day. That is only about 15-million tons per year. We are talking about 400-million tons here.

http://pakobserver.net/china-to-set-up-refinery-at-gwadar/

Gwadar is meant be primarily a shorter route to Chinese Western region. Therefore most of the traffic would be goods traffic that means large number of bulk carriers and container ships.

As of 2011 60% of the bulk carriers were handy size vessels (less than 50K DWT). Additionally total container ships inthe world were 4,677 with carrying capacity of 12.8-million TEU, this gives average container vessel to be 60 K DWT. This means even though Karachi has limited draft, it not necessarily a limiting factor. Given an increase in number of berths, its throughput can increase. Main bottleneck at Karachi port is the congestion on the roads. That is why Port Qasim was developed.

Nameplate handling capacity is quite different from actual throughput. For example Singapore which is one of the busiest ports in the world has handling capacity of 35 million TEU whereas its throughput is actually close to 31-million TEU and total cargo handled was about 590-million tons in 2016.

Salalah of Oman, specially built to rival Jebel Ali because it is oust side the Hormuz Straight. It has 18-meter draft and 19 berths; its current throughput is only about 3-million TEU (about 65- million tons).

I am a Pakistani too and any progress in Pakistan makes me very happy. However, one must be realistic. In this very forum we have been reading and writing about 85-billion ton Thar coal (found in 1979) for the last 10 years, we are still awaiting first power plant to be completed. The $2-trillion Reqo Diq gold mine contract was awarded to the Australians back in 1994. There is zero progress.

There are so many unforeseen factors affecting any project that outcome is beyond control. It would therefore foolhardy to pin too many hopes on Gwadar. No single project can be a game changer for a large country. Having 400-million ton handling capacity does not mean that it will actually handle that much volume. Even if Gwadar actually achieves 5-million TEU per annum (more than 100-million tons), it would be a success story. However if Gwadar could achieve close to its proposed maximum, it would make me ecstatic even though I don't expect to be alive by 2040.

 

[Flash_Ninja]

my post is reply to a particular post by member in which he wrongly claimed gwadar port operationalised only last year

I said that if there is any activities then it is severely limited, I never claimed no ships have been there in the past 10 years.

The presence of ships also doesn't mean this port is operational. It is still under construction.