Why 'the war' is not inevitable

[Last Hope]

Why ‘the war’ is not inevitable.

Hassan Adnan
Think Tank Analyst, Pakistan Defence.
31-January 2014.


The war by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was enraged in early 2000s. After over a decade of cruel fighting, we are more or less in the same position we were in 2003. Three different governments, including military dictatorship by General Pervez Musharraf, have focused on insurgency and counter insurgency throughout their tenure but failed to uproot the deeply penetrated terrorism in our society. According to data published by satp.org, 50943 people have been killed in 10 years (including January 2014), of which 18373 are civilians, 5578 security personnel and 26992 miscreants. Since 2001, Pakistan Army has commenced atleast five major operations including Operation Enduring Freedom (2001-02), Operation Al-Mizan (2002-06), Operation Zalzala (2008), Operations Sher Dil, Rah-e-Haq and Rah-e-Rast (2007-09) and Operation Rah-e-Nijat (2009-10), along with countless minor and mild operations. Roughly 89% of all the operations were conducted through 2007-09, the period of which has seen a rise in terrorist activities. Where are we going wrong and what is it we lack to curb terrorism? Maybe our entire stance in the war was wrong from the start?

Of the most difficult warfare is the one among ourselves. The enemy has no identity, no bounded boundaries and no uniforms to distinguish them; which is what makes this hard. They are our own people walking amongst us in the streets and markets. This bloodshed within ourselves has doomed the economy and progress of Pakistan, where billions are spent on wars and no foreign investors are willing to settle in the war-torn country. As per previous government’s remarks of 2012, $80 Billion has been spent in the war, which is about 36% of the GDP of 2012. All the human, financial and fringe sacrifices made in ten bloodied years have not made us any closer to eliminating terrorism. Is it time we start considering and pursing other non-lethal means?

The idea of negotiations and talks with TTP came as a shock when it was Imran Khan, the chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf, who first said it in public statements. However, the idea has grown ever since with more and more military officers supporting this day by day. I had the honors to meet with a serving Major who explained me the situation from another point of view and our government policies which fail to bring army’s operations against miscreant strong bases any significant success. One of such is allowing the NATO supply lines pass through Pakistan and enter Afghanistan. These containers contain the supplies, weapons and ammunition which is taken over by TTP and used to fight against Pakistani forces. Another officer I talked to, a Colonel, commander in one of the most sensitive places, assures me the same thing. Officials and personal friends from ISPR have similar stories to say.

This is a never-ending war, with the pawns spawning over and over from western border, with unlimited supply of ammunition and battlefield supplies. The death of Hakeemullah Mehsud came as tragic news to many, his co-operations for the talks and willingness to end this notorious war was something which half of the 13 groups within TTP were supporting. Actual chances and hopes to finish the war were in sights when he was taken down and succeeded by stronger opponent Fazlullah. Fazlullah, the commander of Swat, has been crushed once before by Major General (R) Haroon Aslam and he will seek revenge against Security Forces and civilians for his past defeats. After the death of senior TTP commander Adnan Rasheed, the TTP higher echelon is weak and vulnerable. Pakistan must act fast and clever against him (Fazlulah), not hoping on counter-insurgency operations yet. Talks must resume, the commanders of the 13 groups individually approached and those who are willing to negotiate and lay down arms must be dismantled from TTP. This is the ultimate weapon that could be used to demolish the basis of terrorism in Pakistan for once and ever and break the backs of other smaller terrorists groups which rely and are afflicted with TTP.


The author of this article is a Think Tank Analyst at Pakistan Defence Forum (defence.pk) and the opinions come after recent development in war on terror and meetings with Army officers.

 

[OrionHunter]

I had the honors to meet with a serving Major who explained me the situation from another point of view and our government policies which fail to bring army’s operations against miscreant strong bases any significant success. One of such is allowing the NATO supply lines pass through Pakistan and enter Afghanistan. These containers contain the supplies, weapons and ammunition which is taken over by TTP and used to fight against Pakistani forces. Another officer I talked to, a Colonel, commander in one of the most sensitive places, assures me the same thing. Officials and personal friends from ISPR have similar stories to say.

The highlighted portion above is debatable. Neither the United States nor ISAF has ever shipped weapons or ammunition via Karachi ports.

US military makes arrangements to bring into Afghanistan through PAKGLOC items necessary to sustain the military presence there - construction materials to house the troops, subsistence items such as food/produce/rations and personal demand items like US commando boots, safety shoes, army uniforms, glasses, knives, torches, tools, socks, beds and night vision goggles, and fuel and energy supplies, medical supplies including hospital facilities, in addition to the unit items of the posted troop formations such as vehicles, communication equipment, etc.

Pakistan too had made it clear to the US that the supplies will not include weapons or other lethal items.

Weapons, ammo and lethal equipment like tanks etc, are sent to Afghanistan with the help of 618th Air and Space Operations Center's Theater Direct Delivery division at Scott Air Force Base, Ill. As Eighteenth Air Force's hub for global operations, the 618th AOC plans, schedules and directs a fleet of nearly 1,300 mobility aircraft in support of strategic airlifts, air refueling, and aeromedical evacuation operations around the world including Afghanistan.

It is therefore surprising how the PA officers have mentioned that the TTP are taking over containers containing weapons and ammunition and used against Pakistani forces!

 

[Last Hope]

The highlighted portion above is debatable. Neither the United States nor ISAF has ever shipped weapons or ammunition via Karachi ports.

US military makes arrangements to bring into Afghanistan through PAKGLOC items necessary to sustain the military presence there - construction materials to house the troops, subsistence items such as food/produce/rations and personal demand items like US commando boots, safety shoes, army uniforms, glasses, knives, torches, tools, socks, beds and night vision goggles, and fuel and energy supplies, medical supplies including hospital facilities, in addition to the unit items of the posted troop formations such as vehicles, communication equipment, etc.

Pakistan too had made it clear to the US that the supplies will not include weapons or other lethal items.

Weapons, ammo and lethal equipment like tanks etc, are sent to Afghanistan with the help of 618th Air and Space Operations Center's Theater Direct Delivery division at Scott Air Force Base, Ill. As Eighteenth Air Force's hub for global operations, the 618th AOC plans, schedules and directs a fleet of nearly 1,300 mobility aircraft in support of strategic airlifts, air refueling, and aeromedical evacuation operations around the world including Afghanistan.

It is therefore surprising how the PA officers have mentioned that the TTP are taking over containers containing weapons and ammunition and used against Pakistani forces!

Yet containers found targeted and opened have traces of weapons in them. Derra market has weapons and gadgets stolen from the containers including APC computers.

 

[Chak Bamu]

@Last Hope, I find that a number of issues need to be expanded upon.

For example, when you say "Pakistan must act fast and clever against him (Fazlulah), not hoping on counter-insurgency operations yet." what exactly do you mean? Are you supporting surgical strikes, or are you talking about isolating Fazlullah through talks?

Also, some editing might be necessary to clarify the points you are making.

Good effort BTW.

 

[Last Hope]

@Last Hope, I find that a number of issues need to be expanded upon.

For example, when you say "Pakistan must act fast and clever against him (Fazlulah), not hoping on counter-insurgency operations yet." what exactly do you mean? Are you supporting surgical strikes, or are you talking about isolating Fazlullah through talks?

Also, some editing might be necessary to clarify the points you are making.

Good effort BTW.

I'm talking about isolation of Fazlullah from atleast some of the other 13 groups. Dividing them from between. Not all will adhere to peace objectives, if a significant percentage do, it is a win-win for us.

Swat operation was a success. PA had talks and treaties with the TTP (which were eventually broken). But, after they were broken, some of the groups involved in Swat area disavowed those groups which were active and helped army against them. Not only it helps in reduced numbers of opponents, but it breaks their morale support.

A lone wolf is easier to hunt than a pack of them. This is a good time to isolate Fazlullah from the pack.

 

[VCheng]

............. After the death of senior TTP commander Adnan Rasheed, the TTP higher echelon is weak and vulnerable. Pakistan must act fast and clever against him (Fazlulah), not hoping on counter-insurgency operations yet. Talks must resume, the commanders of the 13 groups individually approached and those who are willing to negotiate and lay down arms must be dismantled from TTP. This is the ultimate weapon that could be used to demolish the basis of terrorism in Pakistan for once and ever and break the backs of other smaller terrorists groups which rely and are afflicted with TTP...............

Respected Sir, would you like to revise that assessment after the recent massacre of captured FC personnel? It appears that TTP is not weak or vulnerable and it is Pakistan that is on the verge of losing its game, but I hope to see how you will prove that impression as being mistaken.

 

[Last Hope]

Respected Sir, would you like to revise that assessment after the recent massacre of captured FC personnel? It appears that TTP is not weak or vulnerable and it is Pakistan that is on the verge of losing its game, but I hope to see how you will prove that impression as being mistaken.

As mentioned above, TTP is a mere group of deviated militants. The groups involved in active attacks are not willing to negotiate and do not cooperate with the overall TTP seniority. I was expecting this and instead of them venting their rage out on public, I was hoping for a fight among themselves. If this action insists, we must engage with those who are responsible for the inhumane acts. PAF did a good job killing 35 militants in strikes today, those who were involved in Peshawar attacks. We must spare the groups who are willing to negotiate and aren't active, but must attempt to eliminate them when they turn hostile.

 

[VCheng]

As mentioned above, TTP is a mere group of deviated militants. The groups involved in active attacks are not willing to negotiate and do not cooperate with the overall TTP seniority. I was expecting this and instead of them venting their rage out on public, I was hoping for a fight among themselves. If this action insists, we must engage with those who are responsible for the inhumane acts. PAF did a good job killing 35 militants in strikes today, those who were involved in Peshawar attacks. We must spare the groups who are willing to negotiate and aren't active, but must attempt to eliminate them when they turn hostile.

So you think we should continue to pick and choose who are the good, the bad and the ugly Taliban? Or may be we should try for eliminating ALL of them?

 

[DANGER-ZONE]

So you think we should continue to pick and choose who are the good, the bad and the ugly Taliban? Or may be we should try for eliminating ALL of them?

You should rather go and do the business in Afghanistan, there is no WE for US citizens here.

 

[Last Hope]

So you think we should continue to pick and choose who are the good, the bad and the ugly Taliban? Or may be we should try for eliminating ALL of them?

I'm not choosing anyone. All I need is no terrorism, by any means possible. If you want to surrender, I'm fine with it, if your friend wants to engage, I'll be standing in front of him with my rifle on his head. Don't mistake me for applying the notion of good and bad taliban here.

 

[VCheng]

I'm not choosing anyone. All I need is no terrorism, by any means possible. If you want to surrender, I'm fine with it, if your friend wants to engage, I'll be standing in front of him with my rifle on his head. Don't mistake me for applying the notion of good and bad taliban here.

Thank you for that needed clarification Sir.

Terrorism will end only if ALL of the Taliban are eliminated. ALL of them.

 

[third eye]

As mentioned above, TTP is a mere group of deviated militants. The groups involved in active attacks are not willing to negotiate and do not cooperate with the overall TTP seniority. I was expecting this and instead of them venting their rage out on public, I was hoping for a fight among themselves. If this action insists, we must engage with those who are responsible for the inhumane acts. PAF did a good job killing 35 militants in strikes today, those who were involved in Peshawar attacks. We must spare the groups who are willing to negotiate and aren't active, but must attempt to eliminate them when they turn hostile.

My compliments on a fair analysis at Post No 1.

Such vermin are not stamped out easily. Use of AF will not have the desired results unless its done in conjunction with and in the initial stages , as a prelude to a larger multi pronged offensive. An AF can at best isolate, soften or demoralise an enemy. Ground forces need to ' mop up, clear axis of communication and so on - in short establish the law of the land .

The AF is an easy option to use - its gives the semblance of action by not involving boots on the ground. By like a lawn mower does, lets the grass grow back in a while.

Someone has to get his hands dirty. I mentioned multi pronged above because the offensive to be successful has to be physical, psychological & social.

The roots where the enemy draws strength from need to be severed, this can happen only when intel gathering is complete & wholesome.

Thank you for that needed clarification Sir.

Terrorism will end only if ALL of the Taliban are eliminated. ALL of them.

Not necessarily.

Trying to remove all with create more problems than being attempted to solve.

Remember, in most cases those involved are countrymen. Instead of trying to eliminate all , it would be better to destroy the fountain heads where they get nourishment from.

The pawns will fall into place and should be attempted rejoin into society.

 

[VCheng]

..............

Not necessarily.

Trying to remove all with create more problems than being attempted to solve.

Remember, in most cases those involved are countrymen. Instead of trying to eliminate all , it would be better to destroy the fountain heads where they get nourishment from.

The pawns will fall into place and should be attempted rejoin into society.

At what point would you consider the possibility that there are no "fountainheads" of terrorism, but that ideology is as widespread within Pakistani society as mud in a swamp?

 

[third eye]

At what point would you consider the possibility that there are no "fountainheads" of terrorism, but that ideology is as widespread within Pakistani society as mud in a swamp?

Ideologies will remain so long as a human mind thinks.

Its the ability to transform those thought into aggressive actions that needs to be stamped out.