EyelessInGaza
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2009
- Messages
- 1,378
- Reaction score
- 0
Cheers AM, great post. You analysis appears to be insightful, especially this part which was very illuminating:
I think it was insightful because it makes the choices of GOP (well, PA, actually if we're being realistic) more 'human' from my perspective, instead of the evil/ Machiavellian plans they're represented as from an Indian POV.
In terms of a solution I think both will need to be deployed at some stage, sequentially rather than concurrently.
I am assuming that by "movement on Kashmir" in your # (2), you mean some movement from India. If so I'd agree - it is a a bit of a Gordian knot for both sides, so in all likelihood GOI will have to make some compromise somewhere on Kashmir and sell it to Indians.
However, I'd state that even if there is a agreed compromise on Kashmir, GOP may still need to 'actively' dismantle the armed cells and, at least, make them totally irrelevant.
.............
So based on that I would argue that almost a decade of essentially non-existent Pakistani State support for Kashmiri insurgents does point to a movement away from violent proxies. That said, have all the Kashmiri groups been attacked and dismantled along the lines of the TTP? NO, and there are a few reasons for that.
First, I don't think the GoP saw that as necessary given they believed they had enough control over them to prevent the groups from attacking India. That belief obviously proved wrong with Mumbai, and at least some members of the LeT.
Secondly, without some sort of tangible progress on Kashmir, attacking the Kashmir focused groups is likely to drive them underground and likely link up with the TTP and AQ. These groups would also have a powerful message to continue to appeal to the masses - the GoP sold out Kashmir and Kashmiris at the behest of India - and that appeal could potentially provide resources enough to continue operations, primarily targeted against the Pakistani State, which only adds to terrorism problem being faced by Pakistan.
I think it was insightful because it makes the choices of GOP (well, PA, actually if we're being realistic) more 'human' from my perspective, instead of the evil/ Machiavellian plans they're represented as from an Indian POV.
In terms of a solution I think both will need to be deployed at some stage, sequentially rather than concurrently.
There are two potential ways out of the impasse IMO:
1. Pakistan is able to exert a degree of control over all of FATA and the PA starts handing over responsibilities to the local security forces, and is therefore able to tackle any potential fallout from taking on the Kashmir focused groups.
2. There is movement on Kashmir and the GoP is able to sell that to the people (and the Kashmiri groups) and then be able to act against them if they refuse to disarm.
I am assuming that by "movement on Kashmir" in your # (2), you mean some movement from India. If so I'd agree - it is a a bit of a Gordian knot for both sides, so in all likelihood GOI will have to make some compromise somewhere on Kashmir and sell it to Indians.
However, I'd state that even if there is a agreed compromise on Kashmir, GOP may still need to 'actively' dismantle the armed cells and, at least, make them totally irrelevant.