It is called soft power. Until China develops equivalent cultural power and the ability to speak to and inspire foreign audiences, then it will be this way. China needs to also open up its doors for more foreign elites so they can send their children and families to live in China and own properties.
Why Iran experts are skeptical about the significance of Tehran's new deal with Beijing
- Thread starter Homajon
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It is called soft power. Until China develops equivalent cultural power and the ability to speak to and inspire foreign audiences, then it will be this way. China needs to also open up its doors for more foreign elites so they can send their children and families to live in China and own properties.
Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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As Hollywood becomes crap, US cultural power loses power.
It's still by far the most powerful cultural influence in the world. China's presence is miniscule and non-existent in comparison.
Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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To be honestly I haven't watched anymore Hollywood for a year now. Life has never been so good. American heroism is crap anyway. One man invincible. Ha! Ridiculous.
WudangMaster
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It is being influenced by the Chinese market all the same, though subtly and indirectly by market forces.
ARMalik
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Why Iran experts are skeptical about the significance of Tehran's new deal with Beijing
Tim O'Donnell
Sat, March 27, 2021
China and Iran struck a deal on Saturday that will last for 25 years. On the surface it seems meaningful; in exchange for a steady supply of oil, Beijing agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran, The New York Times reports. But there's skepticism among Middle East experts about whether it actually signals a significant new phase in Tehran-Beijing relations.
Dina Esfandiary, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group and co-author of a book about Iran's relations with China and Russia, told The Wall Street Journal the pact "allows Iran to be a little more intransigent," which could make "Europe and the U.S. a little more nervous because it looks like Iran may have a way out of economic strangulation." But she also tweeted that while it may be a "political and rhetorical win" for Iran, "it doesn't change much in its dealings with China for now." Esfandiary said she concurred with Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, the founder of the think tank Bourse & Bazaar and a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who argued the $400 billion figure is "completely made up" and "illogical."
In a Bourse & Bazaar article published in September, Jacob Scita, a doctoral fellow at the U.K.'s Durham University, wrote that the $400 billion figure — which is not included anywhere in the official text of the public agreement — came from an unreliable source, reasoning "the pattern of China-Iran trade" suggests such an investment was implausible. It's worth noting, however, that the Times is reporting $400 billion would be invested over the full 25 years, while Scita writes the source claimed the investment would take place over the first five years of a 25-year plan.
Either way, Batmangehlidj doesn't think the agreement, which other scholars agree is "vague" and "aspirational," should be overestimated, even if it is "geopolitically significant." "The framing that Iran is pursuing a unique relationship with China, that opens it to dependency, is incorrect," Batmangehlidj tweeted.
Why Iran experts are skeptical about the significance of Tehran's new deal with Beijing
China and Iran struck a deal on Saturday that will last for 25 years. On the surface it seems meaningful; in exchange for a steady supply of oil, Beijing agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran, The New York Times reports. But there's skepticism among Middle East experts about whether it actually...news.yahoo.com
So it remains as before: Only a Resistance economy can save Iran.
Seriously dude, it is from YAHOO news. Do you really expect unbiased reports from these arseholes? If you do believe they are not biased Yankee media then you are living on the wrong planet.
mohsen
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Your interpretation is incorrect cause it's based on a big false element; the independency of gulf states.
But in reality, these states are pure US puppets, and without a regional dominant power like Iran (the imbalanced power as you called it), US wont hesitate a single moment to use them and threaten the China's energy security. Today US has a very aggressive policy against China to prevent it from taking it's place and energy is the ultimate leverage.
You can see somehow similar situation in US relations with UK and Europe, EU countries are US allies but US never wanted a hegemonic EU, and yet simultaneously bolstered it's relations with UK.
Furthermore, there are two more important factors which you missed, first is India, and the second is Pro-west reformists in Iran, China saw how these west arse-lickers in Iran refused to even appoint an ambassador to China, I assure you it was the most frightening scene for Chinese.
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Too bad Zionists wont let stupid Americans to see the real price of their hostilites against Iran!
Iran and China sign 25-year-deal and send a message to the US
Trade and and defence agreement has been signed between Tehran and Beijing
www.independent.co.uk
If it is true that parts of the agreement are kept secret, that could change a lot. I can only judge what is shown to the public, and that is not impressive at all.
That doesn't matter. China will help Iran only as far as to prevent the US from dominating the Middle East, but Iran wants a lot more.
925boy
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ALl you need to know is that Iranian govt didnt sell Iranian nation away for any money. Iranian govt signing this deal is OBVIOUSLY the right move..China cant control IRan- Iranian internal and extrnal security is very strong, so its just paranoia and vulnerability, which i understand, but China is a mostly a strategic trader, not an ideological trader, so China has needs ,and China will exit Iran when the time comes and both sides have fulfilled their commitment.
Actually, Iran cant survive economically if its has problems with both China and US...this is the neo- silk road 2.0 death pill version that Khomeini referenced (vis-a-vis the Iraq war).
raptor22
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Well we should boost relations with both & balance them ..
925boy
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Due to lack of alternatives..
Maira La
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Hold your horses. That (underlined) in itself is a huge deal. Learn to take baby steps before you run.
More like due to the legacy of 300 years of Anglo domination. The British Empire and the US largely created modern entertainment and information so the Anglo narrative has dominated global culture for centuries. It is very hard for any other culture to get any headway because of this.
China and Iran announced a new economic and security partnership. That’s not as alarming as it sounds.
China has similar deals with a number of Middle Eastern countries
By Lucille Greer and Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
April 1, 2021 at 12:30 p.m. GMT+2
On Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Tehran to sign a 25-year partnership deal between China and Iran. The deal, according to a leaked draft, outlines plans for economic, political and security cooperation between the two countries, which are celebrating 50 years of diplomatic ties.
Our research provides some important context to this announcement. Since news of the agreement surfaced in 2016, the prospect of a closer alliance between two U.S. rivals has inspired alarm in the United States. In March, President Biden told a reporter he had been “concerned for over a year” about the partnership.
But media reports tend to exaggerate the nature of the deal — and there are several misconceptions here. For China, “Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships,” or CSPs, are a standard foreign policy tool. By signing road maps for economic and security cooperation with countries across the Middle East, it is seeking to ensure that it does not stoke regional rivalries. China has similar cooperation deals in place with Iraq (signed in 2015), Saudi Arabia (signed in 2016) and the United Arab Emirates (signed in 2018).
Far from signaling a uniquely deep or ambitious alliance between China and Iran, the newly signed CSP reflects Iran’s long-frustrated efforts to get China to provide the same level of economic and security cooperation it offers other countries in the Middle East. In a study we conducted last year of China’s relations with Iran and five other Middle Eastern countries, we found that Iran lags behind its neighbors with regard to both the extent of Chinese economic commitments and the level of bilateral security cooperation. Rather than elevating the China-Iran relationship to new heights, the belated signing of this CSP is probably a clear signal that Iran wants to catch up to its neighbors.
It’s not a “$400 billion deal”
A New York Times headline declared the new deal would amount to $400 billion over the next 25 years — which means China would need to invest $16 billion on an annual basis. That’s an astronomical sum when considering that total foreign direct investment in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer and a country unencumbered by U.S. sanctions, has averaged just $5.1 billion over the past five years.
If the target sounds unrealistic, it’s because it is not real. The $400 billion figure was first cited in 2019 in a poorly sourced article. The fact sheet on the deal published this week by Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry shows that the deal is a road map with no specific financial targets. Likewise, Chinese officials have emphasized that there are no set contracts or goals in this framework.
China-Iran trade and investment have struggled
Even with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, China’s ambitious plan to connect Eurasia through infrastructure investment, Iran was under the strictest sanctions ever levied by the United States. Trade between China and Iran did grow despite the sanctions, but this growth was mostly a reflection of China’s emergence as a major global supplier of industrial goods in the same period. Meanwhile, planned investments in energy and transport infrastructure hit a wall as sanctions risks proved too great for China’s major contractors.
Conditions for bilateral trade and investment improved in January 2016 when the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal lifted international sanctions. That same month, Chinese President Xi Jinping traveled to Tehran and committed to the new CSP. But President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the reimposition of U.S. secondary sanctions complicated China-Iran plans. China-Iran trade has languished since.
Will China get a security dividend?
U.S.-Iran tensions have done more than complicate China-Iran trade. Around 3 million barrels per day of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz en route to China, making it the largest oil customer in this trade route. The prospect of a regional conflict halting the route has spurred Beijing to get more involved in Middle East security, even though it remains hesitant to become entangled in the region’s complex politics.
China has conducted two multilateral naval drills with Iran and Russia under the pretexts of anti-piracy and counterterrorism. China has used its CSP deals to structure security cooperation with countries across the region, including those that count themselves as Iran’s rivals — and partners of the United States. A naval exercise with Iran is usually accompanied by a Chinese drill with the Saudi royal navy within the same few weeks, for instance.
While the newly signed CSP with Iran does portend increased security cooperation, China has in no way promised a steadfast military alliance. Such an agreement would undermine the benefits China draws from the established U.S. security architecture in the region — a set of security partnerships and bases established in the 20th century to protect oil imports from Middle East suppliers.
There also appears to be no incoming flurry of Chinese arms sales to Iran, even with the end of the United Nations arms embargo last fall. China’s nascent Middle East arms trade is directed toward Iran’s neighbors. Beijing’s motive in this market is profit, and cash-strapped Iran is not a lucrative customer. China and Iran are also mismatched in capabilities. Iran seeks air defense weaponry, and China’s main sales in the region are tanks. China struggles to manufacture jet engines, and its new drones have crashed in the field.
China’s support for the Iran deal will continue
Will the CSP compete with, or complement, U.S. interests? It’s important to remember that China, as a permanent U.N. Security Council member, is a signatory to the Iran nuclear deal. And China stands to benefit economically as well from the resumption of this nuclear control measure and from greater regional stability. After all, removing international sanctions would help Chinese trade and investment in Iran.
In this light, a CSP with China isn’t likely to embolden Iran’s moves away from the nuclear deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif heralded his counterpart as a “friend for difficult times,” but China and Iran both know that their interests are better served by a U.S. return to the Iran nuclear deal.
China has similar deals with a number of Middle Eastern countries
By Lucille Greer and Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
April 1, 2021 at 12:30 p.m. GMT+2
On Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Tehran to sign a 25-year partnership deal between China and Iran. The deal, according to a leaked draft, outlines plans for economic, political and security cooperation between the two countries, which are celebrating 50 years of diplomatic ties.
Our research provides some important context to this announcement. Since news of the agreement surfaced in 2016, the prospect of a closer alliance between two U.S. rivals has inspired alarm in the United States. In March, President Biden told a reporter he had been “concerned for over a year” about the partnership.
But media reports tend to exaggerate the nature of the deal — and there are several misconceptions here. For China, “Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships,” or CSPs, are a standard foreign policy tool. By signing road maps for economic and security cooperation with countries across the Middle East, it is seeking to ensure that it does not stoke regional rivalries. China has similar cooperation deals in place with Iraq (signed in 2015), Saudi Arabia (signed in 2016) and the United Arab Emirates (signed in 2018).
Far from signaling a uniquely deep or ambitious alliance between China and Iran, the newly signed CSP reflects Iran’s long-frustrated efforts to get China to provide the same level of economic and security cooperation it offers other countries in the Middle East. In a study we conducted last year of China’s relations with Iran and five other Middle Eastern countries, we found that Iran lags behind its neighbors with regard to both the extent of Chinese economic commitments and the level of bilateral security cooperation. Rather than elevating the China-Iran relationship to new heights, the belated signing of this CSP is probably a clear signal that Iran wants to catch up to its neighbors.
It’s not a “$400 billion deal”
A New York Times headline declared the new deal would amount to $400 billion over the next 25 years — which means China would need to invest $16 billion on an annual basis. That’s an astronomical sum when considering that total foreign direct investment in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer and a country unencumbered by U.S. sanctions, has averaged just $5.1 billion over the past five years.
If the target sounds unrealistic, it’s because it is not real. The $400 billion figure was first cited in 2019 in a poorly sourced article. The fact sheet on the deal published this week by Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry shows that the deal is a road map with no specific financial targets. Likewise, Chinese officials have emphasized that there are no set contracts or goals in this framework.
China-Iran trade and investment have struggled
Even with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, China’s ambitious plan to connect Eurasia through infrastructure investment, Iran was under the strictest sanctions ever levied by the United States. Trade between China and Iran did grow despite the sanctions, but this growth was mostly a reflection of China’s emergence as a major global supplier of industrial goods in the same period. Meanwhile, planned investments in energy and transport infrastructure hit a wall as sanctions risks proved too great for China’s major contractors.
Conditions for bilateral trade and investment improved in January 2016 when the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal lifted international sanctions. That same month, Chinese President Xi Jinping traveled to Tehran and committed to the new CSP. But President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the reimposition of U.S. secondary sanctions complicated China-Iran plans. China-Iran trade has languished since.
Will China get a security dividend?
U.S.-Iran tensions have done more than complicate China-Iran trade. Around 3 million barrels per day of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz en route to China, making it the largest oil customer in this trade route. The prospect of a regional conflict halting the route has spurred Beijing to get more involved in Middle East security, even though it remains hesitant to become entangled in the region’s complex politics.
China has conducted two multilateral naval drills with Iran and Russia under the pretexts of anti-piracy and counterterrorism. China has used its CSP deals to structure security cooperation with countries across the region, including those that count themselves as Iran’s rivals — and partners of the United States. A naval exercise with Iran is usually accompanied by a Chinese drill with the Saudi royal navy within the same few weeks, for instance.
While the newly signed CSP with Iran does portend increased security cooperation, China has in no way promised a steadfast military alliance. Such an agreement would undermine the benefits China draws from the established U.S. security architecture in the region — a set of security partnerships and bases established in the 20th century to protect oil imports from Middle East suppliers.
There also appears to be no incoming flurry of Chinese arms sales to Iran, even with the end of the United Nations arms embargo last fall. China’s nascent Middle East arms trade is directed toward Iran’s neighbors. Beijing’s motive in this market is profit, and cash-strapped Iran is not a lucrative customer. China and Iran are also mismatched in capabilities. Iran seeks air defense weaponry, and China’s main sales in the region are tanks. China struggles to manufacture jet engines, and its new drones have crashed in the field.
China’s support for the Iran deal will continue
Will the CSP compete with, or complement, U.S. interests? It’s important to remember that China, as a permanent U.N. Security Council member, is a signatory to the Iran nuclear deal. And China stands to benefit economically as well from the resumption of this nuclear control measure and from greater regional stability. After all, removing international sanctions would help Chinese trade and investment in Iran.
In this light, a CSP with China isn’t likely to embolden Iran’s moves away from the nuclear deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif heralded his counterpart as a “friend for difficult times,” but China and Iran both know that their interests are better served by a U.S. return to the Iran nuclear deal.
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