India's middle class will hit 250 million or 20 per cent of the country's population in 2015, according to McKinsey and Company. But, what is the middle class? How has it evolved into such a driving force?
However, the myth was soon busted when the 300 million middle-class figure projected in 1991 actually stood at 30 million. According to the standards set by the Asian Development Bank, members of the middleclass consume on average $2- $20 a day.
Twenty years hence, the 2011 census shows that only 4.6 per cent of India's population has ownership of all four assets - television, computer/laptop, scooter/car and telephone/ mobile phone. While the limiting asset is computer with only 9.5 per cent ownership, 21 per cent owns a scooter and 63 per cent owns a phone.
And while roughly 30 per cent of India's population lives below the poverty line, 17.8 per cent owns none of the specified assets in the census chart.
Then, which is the rising middle-class, and which of these middle classes do Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi refer to in their promises of the future?
While there is the so-called affluent belt from Himachal Pradesh through Punjab, Haryana and UP in the north, and a chunk of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra in the south, in Chandigarh, the most affluent state in terms of ownership, this is true for only 28.6 per cent of households.
In contrast, a poverty belt starts from the tribal belt of North-West India, which includes the Central India Tribal Belt, parts of Bihar, Orissa and the North-East. Moreover, inequality is rising both between and within affluent and poor states, for instance, in Maharashtra and Bihar.
The great Indian growth story is not trickling down. So, are we the 4.6 per cent? The 17.8 per cent? The 21 per cent? Or the 63 per cent? Are you the middle-class that the political class is trying to woo?