Why India needs to rethink the Rafale deal

[Burhan Wani]

They don't enter the airspace just to satisfy egos. They enter when they have a reason to enter. Hundreds of flights have been flown by foxbats all over Islamabad for reconnaisance, with PAF unable to do anything about it. These days we have satellites (tiny little artificial moons that India is so good at putting into orbit every now and then, and Pak has no clue how to) that do the job of reconnaisance, not to mention sensor loaded aircrafts of ARC that can collect data whil remaining inside our own airspace.

I don't know if you realize it, but there is no war going on. If there is, the IAF will do what needs to be done, as it did in the previous war. They won't do it simply to score points on PDF to wannabe "engineers".

If you have such advanced technologies then why you are not engaging terrorist camps in Azad Kashmir and stop LOC crossings?

 

[sancho]

@janon

Don't feed the troll, even senior Pakistani memeber trying to make him understand things, but he simply don't want to. So don't bother.

@C130 is right...Why we are not buying F35, if price for a single rafale is more than that....?

Same old question, same old answer, because...

...it is not on offer for licence production under ToT
...the US don't share critical techs, which is why even the F16 and F18SH were not possible choices
...it is far more costly to operate even than the EF
...it comes with a lot of operational restrictions, which we simply can't allow for such an important addition to Indias security
...it doesn't came according to the timelines of the competition
...it doesn't even comply to several of the basic flight performance requirements the IAF had (TWR, G-Limits, twin seat version...)

In short, it never was a choice for the M-MRCA and never will be!

 

[Abingdonboy]

seems kinda unprofessional on the part of the Russians.

They certainly aren't showing any class these days. They have been saying some very questionable things recently after losing deal after deal in India.

it was the cover provided by the MiG-29 that spooked – and demoralised – the PAF pilots. . My question is? Why you didn;t entered our territory. LOL

The real question is, why your air force stood by and let their troops get pounded by the IAF relentlessly. Why the IAF needed to enter Pakistani territory during Kargil is beyond me.....

Honestly speaking then no one knows about cost except negotiating teams. All figures we hear are just wild guesses which vary from 16 Billion USD to 26 Billion USD.
PS: Oh wait, Its 30 billion USD according to this Russian official. LOLs.

The cost is crazy for a stop-gap measure, especially a stop-gap measure that was needed back in 2001.

Why not invest that money in your own indigenous defence industries, imagine how happy they would be to get $30 billion. That would be the better long-term option, but many in India believe they don't have the "time" for that, given their security vulnerability in the present.

Short-termism seriously hurts the long-term prospects for their indigenous defence capabilities, but that is their choice.

The cost, according to the IAF, is $16BN spread out over 10 years. This was stated to the Def Min two months ago, nothing will have changed since then. Any news outlet stating any other figure is either ignorant or working to an agenda- maybe both.

 

[TimeTraveller]

@janon

Don't feed the troll, even senior Pakistani memeber trying to make him understand things, but he simply don't want to. So don't bother.



Same old question, same old answer, because...

...it is not on offer for licence production under ToT
...the US don't share critical techs, which is why even the F16 and F18SH were not possible choices
...it is far more costly to operate even than the EF
...it comes with a lot of operational restrictions, which we simply can't allow for such an important addition to Indias security
...it doesn't came according to the timelines of the competition
...it doesn't even comply to several of the basic flight performance requirements the IAF had (TWR, G-Limits, twin seat version...)

In short, it never was a choice for the M-MRCA and never will be!

Thanks Sir...You are amazing...You have a large storage of information in your mind....

 

[Burhan Wani]

They certainly aren't showing any class these days. They have been saying some very questionable things recently after losing deal after deal in India.


The real question is, why your air force stood by and let their troops get pounded by the IAF relentlessly. Why the IAF needed to enter Pakistani territory during Kargil is beyond me.....




The cost, according to the IAF, is $16BN spread out over 10 years. This was stated to the Def Min two months ago, nothing will have changed since then. Any news outlet stating any other figure is either ignorant or working to an agenda- maybe both.

Because we want to prove something thatswhy we were completely stood quiet.

 

[sathya]

Because we want to prove something thatswhy we were completely stood quiet.

What u wanted to prove ?

 

[Abingdonboy]

Because we want to prove something thatswhy we were completely stood quiet.

Hmmm..... care to explain? I am lost. All it seemed to prove was that the Pak military had very little honour, further demonstrated by the initial refusal to accept the bodies of the brave men that died for your nation.

 

[Burhan Wani]

What u wanted to prove ?

Justify it.
it was the cover provided by the MiG-29 that spooked – and demoralised – the PAF pilots..
Source: Why India needs to rethink the Rafale deal

Hmmm..... care to explain? I am lost. All it seemed to prove was that the Pak military had very little honour, further demonstrated by the initial refusal to accept the bodies of the brave men that died for your nation.

They were not regulars.They were KAshmiri freedom fighters. We want to kill indian fighters in our territory to show world wide

 

[janon]

Because we want to prove something thatswhy we were completely stood quiet.

They proved that all they can do is sit quietly.

@sancho : I know he is a useless troll, I was simply having some fun myself. He will keep going for 30 pages like this, I only wanted to counter troll him for 3 or 4 posts. Won't be responding further to him.

Hmmm..... care to explain? I am lost. All it seemed to prove was that the Pak military had very little honour, further demonstrated by the initial refusal to accept the bodies of the brave men that died for your nation.

If you are not aware, like sancho points out, he is only here to troll, and will keep repeating the same thing endlessly. If like me, you are trying to counter troll for a while, go ahead. Otherwise, be advised that it is best to ignore him.

 

[TimeTraveller]

MMRCA Delay Raise Hopes For Rosoboronexport, Eurofighter

With no end in sight for the negotiations between the Indian MoD and Dassault over the purchase of the Rafale fighter, Rosoboronexport and Eurofighter have offered price drops to swing the deal their way.Some official word was expected from the Indian MoD about the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) during the last meeting of the Defence Acquisition Council. This has not happened despite the Indian Air Force (IAF) sounding alarm over the depleted fighter strength and the recent grounding of the Su-30MKI fleet over ejection seat issues.

However, the lack of communication has led to speculation that both sides are not able to conclude commercial negotiations with differences hinging on price, transfer of technology and the manufacture of the aircraft in India.The only recent word has come from the French ambassador to India Francois Richier who said, “soon, contract for medium multi role combat aircraft (MMRCA) project will be finalised”.The Ambassador made the statement on October 16 while on a visit to Shimla but did not give any timeframe.

Reports said that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier offered 126 Eurofighter aircraft for US$ 9.8 billion, about 2 billion less than the original $12 billion price tag of the MMRCA. The minister who was visiting Delhi in early September is reported to have offered to significantly drop the price of the Eurofighter. The response of the Indian side to the offer is not known.

Subsequently reports surfaced that the Eurofighter had problems with its fuselage and flight control system. There have been no entreaties from Eurofighter since then.Last week Russian Ambassador in New Delhi Alexander Kadakin claimed that Chinese Sukhoi Flankers will “swat the Rafale like mosquitoes”. The Ambassador claimed that the Su-30MKI in service in India and the Chinese Su-27 were both superior and cheaper than the Rafale.

Rosoboronexport, the Russian arms export agency is expecting India to order more Su-30MKIs and MiG-29s in place of the Rafale.Russian sources indicated that the modernized aircraft, equipped with the AESA radar could be offered at an attractive price should India enter into negotiations to buy them. However, it remains to be seen what impact the grounding of the Su-30MKi fleet will have on future purchases of fighters from Russia.

With over 5 years gone since the MMRCA procurement began, all the contending aircraft may become obsolete. By the time the IAF gets its hands on the plane and it might be time for a mid-life upgrade.


Source : MMRCA Delay Raise Hopes For Rosoboronexport, Eurofighter | Defence News Daily

 

[SR-91]

No, everyone has the right to express their opinions.

One of job as a ambassador is to make relations between his country and ours better. He had no right to bad mouth this deal and that too using China's copycat products. If he compared against su-35, i would have ok, he's selling for his country. But y bring China's dups. in the picture?

 

[KingMamba]

How come every time India tries to purchase something the prices start to go way past initial estimates? Is this something normal or are countries just trying to milk you guys for every cent?

@sancho

 

[sancho]

How come every time India tries to purchase something the prices start to go way past initial estimates? Is this something normal or are countries just trying to milk you guys for every cent?

Depends on the case. M777 howitzers got costlier, because we couldn't fix the deal in time and the production ended. Starting it again, now will logically add costs.

But if you refer to M-MRCA, then it's mainly public speculation that fuels the hype about cost. There is no official statement on the budget of the tender nor on the unit price of Rafale and EF. All speculations are based on estimates, take the doubling of the costs for example. That BS is based on the estimate, that the initial MRCA (which included Mirage 2000-5, Gripen C, F16 B52 and Mig 29SMT) would cost around $10 billion (/ 126 fighters = $79 million each fighter), but that was a decade ago and now we are talking about far different and far more capable fighters, so logic alone must tell us, that the cost will be higher, but people simply ignore that and keep complaining about cost rise above this $10 billion. The fly-away cost of Gripen NG is around $50 million, so how can we honestly expect the system price of a far more capable version of the Gripen with AESA, IRST, advanced avionics... to have a system-cost of only $79 millions? And the Gripen was meant to be one of the cheapest in the competition, so if not even that fits the estimated bill, why are we surprised that Rafale and EF add even more costs?

So the public and the media might have issues with the costs, because we werent awar, or simply ignored the obvious facts. But the important point is, MoD and IAF knew about the costs all along and never complained about it, nor did they even modified the tender to benefit only fighters of a certain cost, because that simply did not had priority for them. They wanted a fighter that fulfills the operatonal requirements of IAF and industrial advantages for our industry, way above of what we got through the MKI deal.

Besides that, business is always about getting the best deal for your side. Foreign vendors will try to give as little as possible on ToT, while getting as much money, while our aim is the opposite. That's why India has a stong focus on these competitions, to increase the pressure on the vendors to provide better offers and be in the better position to negotiate.

 

[KingMamba]

Depends on the case. M777 howitzers got costlier, because we couldn't fix the deal in time and the production ended. Starting it again, now will logically add costs.

But if you refer to M-MRCA, then it's mainly public speculation that fuels the hype about cost. There is no official statement on the budget of the tender nor on the unit price of Rafale and EF. All speculations are based on estimates, take the doubling of the costs for example. That BS is based on the estimate, that the initial MRCA (which included Mirage 2000-5, Gripen C, F16 B52 and Mig 29SMT) would cost around $10 billion (/ 126 fighters = $79 million each fighter), but that was a decade ago and now we are talking about far different and far more capable fighters, so logic alone must tell us, that the cost will be higher, but people simply ignore that and keep complaining about cost rise above this $10 billion. The fly-away cost of Gripen NG is around $50 million, so how can we honestly expect the system price of a far more capable version of the Gripen with AESA, IRST, advanced avionics... to have a system-cost of only $79 millions? And the Gripen was meant to be one of the cheapest in the competition, so if not even that fits the estimated bill, why are we surprised that Rafale and EF add even more costs?

So the public and the media might have issues with the costs, because we werent awar, or simply ignored the obvious facts. But the important point is, MoD and IAF knew about the costs all along and never complained about it, nor did they even modified the tender to benefit only fighters of a certain cost, because that simply did not had priority for them. They wanted a fighter that fulfills the operatonal requirements of IAF and industrial advantages for our industry, way above of what we got through the MKI deal.

Besides that, business is always about getting the best deal for your side. Foreign vendors will try to give as little as possible on ToT, while getting as much money, while our aim is the opposite. That's why India has a stong focus on these competitions, to increase the pressure on the vendors to provide better offers and be in the better position to negotiate.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[SrNair]

seems kinda unprofessional on the part of the Russians.

They are exploiting our patience.We understood that when we bought Vikramaditya from them.
T

The cost is crazy for a stop-gap measure, especially a stop-gap measure that was needed back in 2001.

Why not invest that money in your own indigenous defence industries, imagine how happy they would be to get $30 billion. That would be the better long-term option, but many in India believe they don't have the "time" for that, given their security vulnerability in the present.

Short-termism seriously hurts the long-term prospects for their indigenous defence capabilities, but that is their choice.

Wrong .Our aircraft industry is not that matured .Even if we invest 30 billion in our industry the result would be not even come nearer to the Rafale.We are accumulating most advanced western tech .You can see result of this in our future AMCA .probably around 2030.

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Russian Ambassador in New Delhi Alexander Kadakin claims Chinese Sukhoi Flankers will swat the Rafale like mosquitoes, but what’s more worrying is India is willing to spend $30 billion on a stop-gap aircraft.

Fighter planes fall into two categories – the hunters and the hunted. The French are pitching their Rafale as the dogfight duke that is the crème de la crème of jet fighters. But the Russian side disagrees. Alexander Kadakin, Russia's ambassador in India, says Chinese-made Sukhoi-27s would be able to swat the Rafales like “mosquitoes on an August night.”

At this point it’s pointless to deliver the verdict on which aircraft is superior. The Rafale is a largely unknown commodity in aviation circles. Like most French fighters, it is most likely an unassuming, unspectacular but honest aircraft.

But what Kadakin left unsaid is ominous. First up, he said the hundreds of Su-27 Flankers supplied by Moscow to Beijing are much less advanced than the Flankers in India’s inventory. Now forget the Su-27 for a while and let’s talk about the two squadrons of the latest Su-35 Super Flanker that Russia has cleared for sale to China. This new iteration is a huge advancement over the already potent Su-27. If the aircraft's stupendous performance at the 2014 Paris Air Show is any indication then the Rafale is likely to fare even worse against the Su-35.

Costing dogfight

To be sure, the most significant aspect of the Rafale deal is the cost. Originally pegged at $10 billion, the size of the deal has climbed to a stratospheric $30 billion. So instead of bolstering the country’s air power, the Rafale is threatening to blow a gaping hole in India’s overstretched defence budget.

India may the third largest economy on the planet but in the backdrop of numerous projects requiring bucket loads of cash, New Delhi can’t afford to splurge on weapons, especially when alternatives are available for far less.

The IAF’s requirement of 126 aircraft can be quickly met – at a fraction of the cost of the Rafale – by inducting more numbers of the technologically superior Su-30s, which the IAF described as its “air dominance fighter,” and which is being produced at Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL).

Each Indian made Su-30 costs approximately $75 million per unit. So if the IAF goes for 126 of them, the total cost will come to under $10 billion, which coincidentally is the originally envisaged amount. Plus, the Sukhois will provide more bang for the buck. “These aircraft will be the high end of India’s air power, and can be expected to remain in the force past 2030, and are competitive with or superior to top-end European fighters and American F-15 variants,” says Defense Industry Daily.

Another option is to buy more of the – even more cheaper – MiG-29, which is the mainstay of India’s interceptor force, and which had shattered the morale of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) during the 1999 Kargil War.
With the $20 billion or so saved, India can import leading edge aviation technology – from France, Russia, Germany or even the US to beef up its military aviation. With manufacturing declining in the US and Europe and thousands of defence sector jobs facing the axe, western engineers would be more than happy to work in India.

There is a precedent in this area. After 1991 when elite Soviet weapons engineers and scientists found their jobs gone, many of them found work at Chinese and South Korean companies – both military and civilian. Russian scientists and engineers ended up transforming the defence sector in both these Asian countries.

India too needs to tread the same path. Hiring unemployed or underemployed European defence sector workers would cut the development time frame of Indian defence projects. In fact, even Pakistan has a tenuous Russian connection. An administrator of Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission from 1967 to 1970 was Polish aeronautical engineer air commodore Wladyslaw Turowicz. Born in Siberia, the Pole made significant contributions to Pakistan’s missile programme as an aeronautical engineer.

That brings up the third option. India’s homemade Tejas light combat aircraft (LCA) is being fielded in limited numbers, and further development can easily make it a world class fighter. India can then produce hundreds of LCAs costing around $40 million – for the IAF. For decades, China has adopted this policy of having hundreds of obsolete aircraft because “quantity has a quality all its own”.

Sending hundreds of LCAs swarming into Pakistani air space would completely overwhelm that country’s defences. In effect, the Tejas fleet would kick the door in, allowing the Sukhois to pulverise targets with the supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles.

The LCA even become the military equivalent of India’s $2000 TATA Nano car, for which there was a waiting list in Sri Lanka. Similarly, the LCA could be the ideal export aircraft to small countries with limited budgets. Aircraft such as the Su-30, MiG-29 and F-18 are too expensive and too big for the use of such nations. India could be the first to market a no-frills fighter.


Why Rafale?


When the MMRCA tender was floated over a decade ago, it seemed like a good idea. One, it was aimed at lowering India’s overwhelming dependence on Russia for advanced weapons.

Secondly, India wanted to acquire a medium aircraft that would fill the gap between the low-end LCA and the premium Sukhois.

The third reason was to shore up the IAF's depleting fighter fleet. The IAF’s sanctioned strength is 39.5 squadrons (an IAF combat squadron consists of 18 aircraft in service with another 3-4 in maintenance) but its current fleet is down to 34 squadrons. The air force says it requires 44 squadrons to meet a full-scale war with Pakistan, while also maintaining "a dissuasive posture" against China.

Earlier this year, the IAF told a Parliamentary standing committee on defence that a "collusive threat" from China and Pakistan would be difficult for it to handle. This was played up by the media, which failed to see the fine print: the IAF admitted (in the same statement) China may not pose “a collusive threat” if hostilities were to break out between India and Pakistan.

Indeed, why would the Chinese team up with a rapidly balkanizing Pakistan and attack a fellow BRICS member? It is not only counterintuitive but also a ridiculous idea.

Qualitatively, the IAF is on an upward curve. In fact, in an interview to the media in 2012, former air force chief N.A.K. Browne gave the lie to the claim that the IAF was becoming weaker. According to Browne, the IAF is replacing older MiG-21s with Su-30s. He said once older aircraft are replaced with brand new Sukhois the IAF will have “far greater capability than even what we have today”.

If India and France sort out the numerous issues dogging the MMRCA deal and a contract is signed this year, then the first 18 Rafales will arrive from France in 2016. If all goes smoothly, the rest of the 102 aircraft could start rolling off HAL’s assembly lines by 2018.

But here’s the rub: around 2020 Sukhoi’s stealth fighter, the PAK-FA, in which India is a junior partner, will be ready to join the IAF. Why India is committing itself to a stopgap aircraft is mysterious.


Source : Why India needs to rethink the Rafale deal | Russia & India Report

The author also trolled Pakistan.