Why Economists Are Still Baffled by India’s GDP Growth

[Rasengan]

I already mentioned in a previous post the reason for my family's departure from Pakistan. you don't have to believe me. But tell me, is lying such second nature to you that you take nothing that someone says at face value?

Thank you for leaving Pakistan, because we have no space for wannabe coconut heads who endeavor to act more white than the white man itself. Furthermore, you have no understanding of Pakistani society because the ludicrous statement written by you on admiring the Indian Government does not exists and this will never change until Kashmir is resolved. In addition, you can whine about the Chinese and outdated infrastructure, however this still does not change the fact that China is economic giant. Now go and spit shine some shoes for your white aristocratic masters, otherwise the whip will come out and those southerners have no mercy for the weak.

@Asif Durrani :

At least admit that you are an Indian?

While would Durrani admit to the concept of being an Indian, when the poor juvenile spit shoe shiner is scared of his own shadow

 

[IAmKalam]

@Asif Durrani :

At least admit that you are an Indian?

Just because he said something about CHINA you blamed him to be an Indian?? He may be a Pakistani influenced by American system...

But I am worried why you are so agitated when he said following about China?? Usually My Pakistani frnd get aggitated, when China is targetted? Are u a Pakistani disgusing a Bangladeshi??

Because I saw you no where in that post "Indian BD resolved border dispute"

1. China’s growth model is a fraud. It has achieved high growth by investing in legacy industry that no one in the West wants to have, and in infrastructure it does not itself need. Chinese banks have no oversight. They have no NPA write-off procedure whatsoever. The bad debt situation at Chinese Banks is beyond precarious. By lending profligately to SOEs and infrastructure projects that will never be able to return the money, China has wasted the opportunity it had.
2. China invests NOTHING in R&D. It claims to have all these state-run research labs. All they do is try and hack Western companies for knowhow. Chinese technological education is worth nothing. It has not been able to make anything worthwhile without stealing from the West.
3. Chinese leaders do realize the direction in which the world is headed. They do realize that they have held on to their fascination with heavy, inefficient and polluting industries for too long, when it is ownership of Tech IP that will determine economic outcomes. The Chinese solution to that, as always, has been to try and steal western tech.
4. If China had invested all that money into R&D, instead of building useless infrastructure, it would not be in this precarious situation today. But let’s face it, what is the imagination and innovative abilities of Chinese scientists and technologists?
5. Chinese leaders had held on to their export fascination for too long; given the current economic scenario, domestic demand will contract, not increase. The stock market crash is just the first stage. The Chinese government’s warnings and action against short-sellers cannot continue indefinitely. Eventually there will be a bloodbath on the market, but that will be nothing compared to what is to come. What will come after that will be the NPA avalanche. Chinese banks are already squeezing their lending, and once the free money stops, SOEs will go belly up. Then will come the inevitable run on the banks.
6. At this point, the true story of Chinese growth will emerge. The lies about 11% growth. The fact that the economy has been growing much less than the 7% stated recently (probably contracting) will come out. The sheer scale at which China has wasted the world’s resources in building a non-functioning economy for itself will then fuel outrage.
7. As for China’s rise to super-stardom, I think that will be it. Japan was going to take over the world in the 80s; so what happened? The 90s happened. Before that, the sheer unsustainability of the Soviet spending in the face of a contracting economy was known and understood by only a handful of experts, till the day it collapsed. China combines the worst of Japan’s asset bubble driven by cheap debt characteristics together with total opacity like the Soviets. It is in a much worse position than Japan ever was in 1992. The impending implosion will be devastating.
8. So China has this wise policy of waiting patiently and waiting for the US to make a mistake, is it? The US will not have to do anything to China. China will implode under the weight of its own mismanagement. Trying to curry favors with small nations who go where the money goes will not help China’s cause. China has already bared its fangs to its neighbours. Vietnam, Japan, India, Philippines and Korea have all experienced Chinese belligerence firsthand. America will simply watch the growing understanding develop among these countries that China needs to be contained. It is China that has picked too many fights. It is surrounded by countries who understand that Chinese belligerence needs to be contained.
9. Chinese hypocrisy about the West is well-documented. It has contempt for all things western, expect that anything done in China that is worthwhile is stolen from the west. It steals western tech, its leaders send their children to study in Western universities, it uses western capital, its rich citizens all have homes in the west and are leaving China at an alarming rate.
10. The Chinese regime is a totalitarian dictatorship. It is a rogue regime that proliferates WMDs to North Korea, among other countries. It jails its dissidents. It is undemocratic. It does not allow a free media. It carries on cultural genocide on non-Han minorities. It has reduced the Tibetans, the Ughyurs, etc., to minorities in their own land through aggressive Han resettlement. When faced with these facts, the Chinese regime makes some noise about Confucius /peaceful rise/other nonsense. China’s track record shows that it understands only Sun Tzu, sees the world with an adversarial prism, and relentlessly plays zero-sum-games of deception, proliferation, espionage, misdirection and aggression against its neighbours.

 

[Rasengan]

So, to summarize:

1. China’s growth model is a fraud. It has achieved high growth by investing in legacy industry that no one in the West wants to have, and in infrastructure it does not itself need. Chinese banks have no oversight. They have no NPA write-off procedure whatsoever. The bad debt situation at Chinese Banks is beyond precarious. By lending profligately to SOEs and infrastructure projects that will never be able to return the money, China has wasted the opportunity it had.

The American economic system is a fraud, therefore save your sermons for Sunday on a group of people who actually believe your cesspit of analysis on China. The Chinese have achieved high growth due to its manufacturing sector and their is a good reason why the inflow of FDI in 2014 was $128 billion, because institutional investors and the business community in general believes in the strength of the Chinese economy. The philosophy of investing capital in infrastructure is not considered archaic, because in Great Britain they are spending £14 billion on the HS1/HS2 network. Saudi Arabia alone is spending $22 billion on a mass metro system in Riyadh. Then you have the audacity to criticize Chinese doctrine, when your own Government is considering doing a joint partnership with a Chinese company to build a high-speed railway. I thought you articulate the gibberish nonsense, that America does not need infrastructure investment? You are a hypocrite coconut head, therefore concentrate on the spit shoes shining job. American banks have no oversight because they reckless allowed loans to be given to individuals who did not have the income to pay the amount back. However, this does not concern me because you can enjoy your food stamp grocery shopping.

The US just partnered with China to build a bullet train between LA and Vegas - ScienceAlert

 

[karan.1970]

The ones baffled should be pointed to this news item
India up 16 spots to 55th in global competitiveness

 

[Rasengan]

2. China invests NOTHING in R&D. It claims to have all these state-run research labs. All they do is try and hack Western companies for knowhow. Chinese technological education is worth nothing. It has not been able to make anything worthwhile without stealing from the West..

In response to the 2008 financial crisis the Chinese Government did a fiscal stimulus package of RMB 4 trillion. Technological innovation and structural adjustments comprised 9.3% of this package, therefore China clearly did invest capital in research & development. Every country in this world does espionage and your entire space program was founded by ex-retired Nazi scientists, or did you truly believe in your inert mind that the redneck southerners had the brain cells to achieve such a goal. Chinese technological education must be worth something, if Birmingham University has signed an agreement with Beijing Jiaotong University on increasing research and development of high speed railway technology in which I must say China is at the forefront. Must be the water in America which has made your mind become so stupid, however must be the poor quality of food, because your grocery shopping comes from food stamps or you gauge on fast food chains like most obesity Americans. Forget about competing with China, your fellow countrymen need to go on the treadmill.

China headed to overtake EU, US in science & technology spending, OECD says - OECD

So, to summarize:
3. Chinese leaders do realize the direction in which the world is headed. They do realize that they have held on to their fascination with heavy, inefficient and polluting industries for too long, when it is ownership of Tech IP that will determine economic outcomes. The Chinese solution to that, as always, has been to try and steal western tech.
.

From a clown jester you have become a oracle reader who can understand the thought processes of the Chinese leadership, when the White House and the Pentagon high command itself are second guessing.

The Chinese technology companies poised to dominate the world | World news | The Guardian

 

[Asif Durrani]

Just because he said something about CHINA you blamed him to be an Indian?? He may be a Pakistani influenced by American system...

But I am worried why you are so agitated when he said following about China?? Usually My Pakistani frnd get aggitated, when China is targetted? Are u a Pakistani disgusing a Bangladeshi??

Because I saw you no where in that post "Indian BD resolved border dispute"

I think that's very possible. Seems like the most common thing on PDF - disguising as some other nationality. In any case I am, for most purposes, an internationalist.

The American economic system is a fraud, therefore save your sermons for Sunday on a group of people who actually believe your cesspit of analysis on China. The Chinese have achieved high growth due to its manufacturing sector and their is a good reason why the inflow of FDI in 2014 was $128 billion, because institutional investors and the business community in general believes in the strength of the Chinese economy. The philosophy of investing capital in infrastructure is not considered archaic, because in Great Britain they are spending £14 billion on the HS1/HS2 network. Saudi Arabia alone is spending $22 billion on a mass metro system in Riyadh. Then you have the audacity to criticize Chinese doctrine, when your own Government is considering doing a joint partnership with a Chinese company to build a high-speed railway. I thought you articulate the gibberish nonsense, that America does not need infrastructure investment? You are a hypocrite coconut head, therefore concentrate on the spit shoes shining job. American banks have no oversight because they reckless allowed loans to be given to individuals who did not have the income to pay the amount back. However, this does not concern me because you can enjoy your food stamp grocery shopping.

The US just partnered with China to build a bullet train between LA and Vegas - ScienceAlert

Okay, okay...I get it...China make road and China make rail...fine...now go away autobot!

 

[Rasengan]

Okay, okay...I get it...China make road and China make rail...fine...now go away autobot!

You have no response to my arguments, therefore you can continue to sniff up the rear end of your aristocratic masters and lick their tonsils for all I care.

 

[Bilal9]

The ones baffled should be pointed to this news item
India up 16 spots to 55th in global competitiveness

I can understand that one needs to feel good about their country in some manner. Why don't you highlight the basic issues?

The fact remains that due to rising wage pressures, labor-intensive light manufacturing has begun migrating out of China to elsewhere in Asia, principally Bangladesh,Vietnam and Indonesia. One result has been a great boost for the apparel and footwear industries in Bangladesh. The below report also finds that India, despite its vast reservoir of low-skilled workers, has been left out of this shift.

Why Can’t India Be More Like Bangladesh?

Effectiveness of Bangladeshi RMG workers is better than that of INDIA

We may give ourselves all sorts of credit as (Ninja Turtle) but reality is different.

 

[karan.1970]

I can understand that one needs to feel good about their country in some manner. Why don't you highlight the basic issues?

Where does BD figure in the global competitiveness index again?

 

[CorporateAffairs]

High GDP means change visible on ground reality.
Its not VW emmsion scam using a software. LOL article

 

[Asif Durrani]

No - lying is mostly second nature to the huge number of false-flagger half-educated Indian trolls that infest the PDF forum. At any given time roughly half of the pretend-Bangladeshis and pretend-Pakistanis here are false-flagger Indians. Normal Bangladeshis and Pakistani posters here usually find it beneath themselves to troll in the Indian section of the forum or even lie about their identity. The reverse is however not true.

Logic dictates then that Indian trolls only have one aim - lying about their identity and cause trouble to disrupt the normal functioning of PDF - a Pakistani public forum. This breed of people are only found in India unfortunately.

Indian trolls know that their source IPs will not be detected - and they take full advantage of the situation by willfully causing chaos in mostly the Pakistani and Bangladeshi sections of the forum.

In an ideal situation posters would come here to exchange defense and other related information to enrich themselves. Indian false-flagger trolls however are not interested in that.

They are only intent on trying to turn this forum into the next chest-thumping mouthpiece of the Sangh Parivar with laughably inflated stories of 'Shining India'. Such Sanghis should be banned immediately at the first whiff of such chest-thumping posts because Sanghis are not interested in a normal reasoned discourse about diversity or equality. Sangh Parivar ideals dictate that a Muslim cannot be the equal of a Hindu - much less a Brahmin. That is the baseline for a Sanghi - hence you cannot reason with them.

In any case discussions are ongoing to pinpoint the worst Sanghi trolls here and they will be dealt with in due time. Don't try to spoof your IPs - it won't work.

Case closed.



Ha ha ha LOL - you said it brother....



You sure are wishing for a lot regarding China's downfall - does your critical thinking lend you the possibility that the reverse could also be true? That growth of the Chinese economy could continue or improve instead of slowing further?

China could leverage a lot of things - not insignificantly the capability to partner with multiple lower cost countries like Bangladesh to easily compete with countries like India on cost. They have been at the top of their game in exports for no small reason. All your hope for China's downfall and your wishing away of China's progress does not take Chinese efficiency, hard work or planning into view.

Even super efficient countries like Japan or Korea are finding it hard to compete with the Chinese juggernaut. The Korean shipbuilding industry is struggling to stay alive in the face of Chinese cost efficiencies. And this scenario is repeated across hundreds of small/large industrial sectors.

See the following video on how the Koreans are trying ever newer niche technology approaches in order to compete with China. They will be priced out of the market just like Japan a couple of decades ago. For China and its industrial size - the same will take a lot of time to happen. The worried tones of the 'experts' here are very telling...

In spite of the doomsday predictions - China's economic momentum and fundamentals are very strong and very real. Going all black-magic and casting bad spells on China only makes you look immature and foolish.

Your being so smug & cock-sure about 'China-doom' scenario is quite amusing - really.

Could, should and ought to are not going to save China. In the 60s, Marxists/Leninists/Maoists around the world were sure that the USSR is the perfect socio-political and socio-economic model. Investing in Potemkin villages, high-visibility projects (using reverse engineered Western tech) and wasteful capital investment in non-profit making projects was thought to be the solution to the world’s economic problems. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the self-evident nature of its unfeasibility became gospel. The same was held true of Japan. Until the collapse of its credit bubble, it seemed that state-directed protectionist capitalism with cheap credit was the way to go. When the Japanese banking/real estate bubble burst in the early 90s, only then did people question the wisdom of lending without oversight.

The thing with China is that it is different, in the worst way possible. It combines ALL of the bad attributes of both the Soviet Union and Japan. Opacity, excessive reliance on generating growth numbers (themselves questionable) through infrastructure projects, trying to compete in high technology using stolen know-how, no respect for IP rights, excessive lending by banks without oversight, allowing for real estate construction without demand, chronic over-capacity in wide variety of industry making them unprofitable, continued state/bank support to SOEs that should be allowed to die, ignoring NPAs, not building sufficient domestic demand in the economy and believing that they can continue to undercut their competition forever – you name it, and China has that problem.

The other major issue is this – if China had been a democracy, it would have only slid into a recession. That’s okay, it happens to the best of us. Stock markets are hit, a few banks and companies collapse, many people lose their jobs and livelihood. In other words, a lot of suffering takes place. I experienced it first-hand in 2009, it was bad. But we grumble and complain and move on. That is because we have a safety valve – called democracy. We can always elect a new government. What options do the Chinese people have when they realize that they have been mislead by their government? Who do they go to?
Already, the stock market situation resulted in widespread anger in Chinese cities. And for once, even their leaders started speaking in different voices. Just over something that is taken for granted in the West. They have no pressure release mechanism. That is why it is more likely than not that events that will only cause misery in another country will lead to the collapse of the totalitarian regime.

And that would be a lovely thing actually, China as a democracy would be Taiwan/Singapore/Hong Kong on steroids. I would love it when the creative energy of the Chinese people is unleashed to its full potential, and all this silly propaganda nonsense is dead. I think the Chinese diaspora, along with places like Taiwan, show what the Chinese are truly capable of if they have democratic governance and are not led by a rogue totalitarian regime.

Now coming to the wishful nature of this undertaking. Let me tell you something. I head the East Asia desk at a Pacific Coast investment firm, dealing primarily in tech. Before that I was in the Asia division of a venture capital firm. In the first half of this year, I alerted investors (FIIs) to exit Asian stocks in general (and China stocks in particular). There are a variety of reasons for this recommendation, but most of them are based around what is going to happen in China. Since then, $70 million (including $42 million from China) have been pulled out of Asian markets by my clients. Some clients decided to stay invested. I have been grilled over this call, and last month when Shanghai took a hammering I was given a champagne toast and a new phone as a gift by my clients. If the Asian markets rebound dramatically, these same people will ask for my resignation. What you think is wishful thinking on my part is my professional assessment on which I have put my immediate career at risk. In my view, you are the armchair general out here who is wishing that the inevitable didn’t happen.

 

[Asif Durrani]

Thank you for leaving Pakistan, because we have no space for wannabe coconut heads who endeavor to act more white than the white man itself. Furthermore, you have no understanding of Pakistani society because the ludicrous statement written by you on admiring the Indian Government does not exists and this will never change until Kashmir is resolved. In addition, you can whine about the Chinese and outdated infrastructure, however this still does not change the fact that China is economic giant. Now go and spit shine some shoes for your white aristocratic masters, otherwise the whip will come out and those southerners have no mercy for the weak.




While would Durrani admit to the concept of being an Indian, when the poor juvenile spit shoe shiner is scared of his own shadow

I was not born in Pakistan. Had I been, it is very likely that I would have left Pakistan just like my father did. Unlike me, who is more ambivalent towards Pakistan, he is downright hostile in his views about the Pakistani state. Your insults mean nothing to me. I earn well, live well, my decisions carry weight. I travel the world for work and for leisure. I am pretty sure I am doing slightly better in life than you are.

What is your notion of courage, by the way?

The American economic system is a fraud, therefore save your sermons for Sunday on a group of people who actually believe your cesspit of analysis on China. The Chinese have achieved high growth due to its manufacturing sector and their is a good reason why the inflow of FDI in 2014 was $128 billion, because institutional investors and the business community in general believes in the strength of the Chinese economy. The philosophy of investing capital in infrastructure is not considered archaic, because in Great Britain they are spending £14 billion on the HS1/HS2 network. Saudi Arabia alone is spending $22 billion on a mass metro system in Riyadh. Then you have the audacity to criticize Chinese doctrine, when your own Government is considering doing a joint partnership with a Chinese company to build a high-speed railway. I thought you articulate the gibberish nonsense, that America does not need infrastructure investment? You are a hypocrite coconut head, therefore concentrate on the spit shoes shining job. American banks have no oversight because they reckless allowed loans to be given to individuals who did not have the income to pay the amount back. However, this does not concern me because you can enjoy your food stamp grocery shopping.

The US just partnered with China to build a bullet train between LA and Vegas - ScienceAlert[/URL]

About the American economic system – unlike you, I don’t have to post individual news items about how America makes one road or is involved in one project somewhere. The dollar is the default currency of the world. Bretton Woods institutions enforce the Washington consensus on the global financial system. The per capita GDP is 9 times that of China’s. In addition, the entire developed world is its ally – economically, politically and militarily.

Every country needs infrastructure, and America’s is overdue for an overhaul. Lots of infrastructure needs to be built there. But true strength in the future comes from intellectual property – in genetics, biotech, medicine, IT, nano-tech, 3D fabrication, robotics. China has none of these. It is nowhere in the picture. Its growth rate, which is already under 4% (now please spare me the hogwash of their pathetically dishonest official numbers), will slide into negative territory within 2 years.

About these individual pieces about China building a road here, a railway line here; please stop posting them. I am sure even the Chinese members in this forum must be cringing at the stupidity of trying to intimidate an American with silly news items about one project here and another one there. It is only because you come from Pakistan, a bedraggled country where one bullet train may seem like a trip to Mars that you find these things impressive.

 

[Asif Durrani]

In response to the 2008 financial crisis the Chinese Government did a fiscal stimulus package of RMB 4 trillion. Technological innovation and structural adjustments comprised 9.3% of this package, therefore China clearly did invest capital in research & development. Every country in this world does espionage and your entire space program was founded by ex-retired Nazi scientists, or did you truly believe in your inert mind that the redneck southerners had the brain cells to achieve such a goal. Chinese technological education must be worth something, if Birmingham University has signed an agreement with Beijing Jiaotong University on increasing research and development of high speed railway technology in which I must say China is at the forefront. Must be the water in America which has made your mind become so stupid, however must be the poor quality of food, because your grocery shopping comes from food stamps or you gauge on fast food chains like most obesity Americans. Forget about competing with China, your fellow countrymen need to go on the treadmill.

From a clown jester you have become a oracle reader who can understand the thought processes of the Chinese leadership, when the White House and the Pentagon high command itself are second guessing.

The Chinese technology companies poised to dominate the world | World news | The Guardian

The Maglev rail, which seems to be your sole basis for claiming Chinese supremacy over the world, was built by Siemens and ThyssenKrupp - yet more stolen tech. The Chinese are now offering it to the world as if it was theirs in the first place. If Birmingham University (is it in Birmingham?) partnering with Beijing Wanton University shows that China is at the forefront of railway tech, then I guess each of the thousands of such similar inter-university partnerships show that each country where that university is from is the world leader in that area. Oh wait, I forgot to mention the thousands of university – industry partnerships as well. That makes sense to you, doesn’t it?

Oppenheimer and Einstein were not ex-retired Nazi scientists. Does the Little Red Book say so? Well it is wrong then.

When Airbus was opening its assembly plant in Tianjin, Hu Jintao gave the example of the A320 to explain how one A320 is worth in monetary terms as much as 5 million shirts sold by Chinese textile industry, and so the future lies in value addition. Since Chinese leaders do not talk much, that is as good an indication as any about their changing mindset. Also, didn’t you point out that China had done “technological innovation and structural adjustments” (code words for more espionage and stealing of western technology) post 2008? Doesn’t that tell you that the Chinese leaders’ mindset is changing?

By the way, the opacity of the Chinese leadership is what makes that regime a menace to the world. Expect no sudden good news to come out of there. The only sudden news out of that opaque dungeon will be about turmoil and the inevitable collapse of the totalitarian dictatorship.

I also note that you have now stopped trying to mask your true temperament behind a facade of Confucian calm. What would your Chinese handlers say to you exposing your rotten upbringing while acting as their ambassador-at-large (read unwanted and self-appointed brother)?

You have no response to my arguments, therefore you can continue to sniff up the rear end of your aristocratic masters and lick their tonsils for all I care.

Have your Chinese handlers approved your posts here? The Chinese officials I have known are quite wary of picking arguments because they don't like their reputation being torn to shreds. Those from the Mainland usually withdraw once the conversation goes beyond their standard rehearsed propaganda (the diaspora is, of course, much more diverse). Now just because you being a Pakistani is used to being insulted and the country being called a disaster, doesn't mean that the Chinese approve of their dirt being exposed on a public forum.

 

[Bilal9]

OK Rasengan I give up.

Pages after pages of China hating posts from this brainwashed Coconut guy - of the off-topic kind. This guy has clearly gone off the deep end and needs to enroll in a sanatorium - no offense. He needs 'intervention' LOL. Someone call the HR folks and his HMO/PPO because he really needs their services. Boy - someone in China 'serviced' you well, otherwise how could so much unrequited and unresolved anger exist.

I can see how years of being treated like a second class citizen in the US has taken the toll on this poor guy. A bit anal -aren't we?

The topic of the thread was skepticism at India's GDP numbers - now it has turned into a ten page diatribe against and comparison between the 'Lily-white Pure Western World' vs. 'Evil China'.

Stay on topic otherwise its adios.....

 

[Dungeness]

OK Rasengan I give up.

Pages after pages of China hating posts from this brainwashed Coconut guy - of the off-topic kind. This guy has clearly gone off the deep end and needs to enroll in a sanatorium - no offense. He needs 'intervention' LOL. Someone call the HR folks and his HMO/PPO because he really needs their services. Boy - someone in China 'serviced' you well, otherwise how could so much unrequited and unresolved anger exist.

I can see how years of being treated like a second class citizen in the US has taken the toll on this poor guy. A bit anal -aren't we?

The topic of the thread was skepticism at India's GDP numbers - now it has turned into a ten page diatribe against and comparison between the 'Lily-white Pure Western World' vs. 'Evil China'.

Stay on topic otherwise its adios.....

I told you so! Some diseases in this world have no cure, and sinophobia is one of them.