Who Would Win A Conflict In The South China Sea: The Infographic

[21stCentury]

Who will win in the case that war actually breaks out in SCS will definitely not be Vietnam or Philippines. In most likely scenarios these two will be annihilated right at the beginning pretty quickly. The average Vietnamese and Filipino will suffer the most. The real battle will be against China vs. U.S. should the U.S. go through with their aggressive containment policy. United States as usual the invader will frame China as the aggressors in our own backyard to justify their act of war and to muster support from domestic and international audience, how much of American bullshit people believe these days are up to debate. For China, it will be a matter of national sovereignty, thus will have no choice but to fight to win and since the entire SCS is right in our backyard, it is within range of our missiles, unless the U.S. fleets want to rest at the bottom of the ocean, go for it.

 

[Raphael]

I'm sure dowager empress Cixi had a similar train of thought circa 1894...

The critical difference is that the 'barbarian states' could indeed deliver checkmate back then. At that time, our 'provocations' were forbidding Protestant/Papist missionaries from preaching, and for that, they sent in the cannons and opened fire. Now, we're reclaiming islands, exponentially more 'provocative', yet the most they will do is pen an angry letter. For some reason, when it comes to pulling the trigger, their hands mysteriously tremble and falter National power makes all the difference, it would seem.

You might desperately wish the world was restored to the late 19th century, when Asia was under the Western boot and the PH was being handed around like a slave from Spain to the USA. But the world has moved on. In fact, PH even got its independence, although it has regrettably done nothing useful with its sovereignty and autonomy since then.

 

[Filipino]

The critical difference is that the 'barbarian states' could indeed deliver checkmate back then. At that time, our 'provocations' were forbidding Protestant/Papist missionaries from preaching, and for that, they sent in the cannons and opened fire. Now, we're reclaiming islands, exponentially more 'provocative', yet the most they will do is pen an angry letter. For some reason, when it comes to pulling the trigger, their hands mysteriously tremble and falter National power makes all the difference, it would seem.

You might desperately wish the world was restored to the late 19th century, when Asia was under the Western boot and the PH was being handed around like a slave from Spain to the USA. But the world has moved on. In fact, PH even got its independence, although it has regrettably done nothing useful with its sovereignty and autonomy since then.

Well I take it all back, then -- the hubris shown is more like Japan circa 1937. Come on, guy, step back a bit. We were even on the same side during that war!

 

[Aepsilons]

Well I take it all back, then -- the hubris shown is more like Japan circa 1937. Come on, guy, step back a bit. We were even on the same side during that war!

Same side? There was little to no relationship between Manila and China at that time, since the former was an American Commonwealth. More or less, relations between Manila and Tokyo was stronger -- even during the occupation years -- your president, Jose P. Laurel , was an active collaborator with the Empire of Japan.

Btw, the same man, Jose P. Laurel, would offer amnesty to the very man whom you have on your avatar, Ferdinand E. Marcos. Laurel one commented on Marcos, "This man would change the Philippines and the future of this country."

If i recollect.

 

[GR!FF!N]

The thead is interesting until your unrealistic comments

okkk..lets point out which part of my comment is unrealistic??

The thread started with D!ck measuring..I simply pointed out that the estimates of the ships that USA is going to put in SCS during any conflict is wrongly presented..did you find anything which you can contradict with my post??

Please highlight that part only by not going in any NBC warfare scenario(most of lame members did that..so,its a kind of request).

Buddy that is the PAST, why don't you also bring up the 8-nation alliance that invaded China? What is happening now is a China who is strong enough to stand up to protect its own sovereignty -- not acting tough. Who is acting tough here is the U.S. trying to look like some bravo superman for the world protecting 'helpless innocent victims' lol.

You are Indian, a mental slave, and SCS is none of your business so why bother?

post reported for being abusive..

about "China is Strong",can you point out what is change of scenarios in 3rd Taiwan Crisis and Now??China still possess no carriers(well,Liaoning is a Test carrier,I'd not put it with a real carrier),similar subs and surface warships development(I merely suggesting that the development of Surface Warships and quality increased of both PLAN and USN warships are similar)..could you highlight it with more details??

This is intellectually dishonest. Indians have always held the position that Kashmir issue is between India and Pakistan, and no outside parties, whether it be the UN or US, are welcome.

you interpreted it wrong....

I was mentioning about International Court of Arbitration...SCS comes under this category and Indo-Pak took resort of ICA for several times..all the times,Pakistan lost its case..

Philippines asked China to fight this battle legally..

Philippines Counters China in New South China Sea Case Submission | The Diplomat

China didn't respond..you see,even India-Bangladesh-Myanmar solved its case in ICA..

UN tribunal fixes Indo-Bangladesh maritime border | The Indian Express

when it comes to Maritime Border,ICA is the best authority.

but China prefers it to discuss it bilaterally,while the problem is multilateral.China is never going to risk a multilateral talk as then,Oppositions will be too powerful to counter.

Same side? There was little to no relationship between Manila and China at that time, since the former was an American Commonwealth. More or less, relations between Manila and Tokyo was stronger -- even during the occupation years -- your president, Jose P. Laurel , was an active collaborator with the Empire of Japan.

Btw, the same man, Jose P. Laurel, would offer amnesty to the very man whom you have on your avatar, Ferdinand E. Marcos. Laurel one commented on Marcos, "This man would change the Philippines and the future of this country."

If i recollect.

If I recall properly,even Emilio Aguinaldo(First President of Philippines) was active collaborator of Japan,if I recall..

 

[sherin616]

The question should be directed to the USA worldwide and to India for your problems that arise internally and in S Asia

Unrealistic propositions
That scenario amounts to a WW3 and a nuclear one
Dont think India will be left unscathed either

Indias problems with neighbours are problem created by brits partition policy
And problems are getting solved with bd
China
Etc

 

[TaiShang]

China issues six-point response to U.S. remark on South China Sea issue
CCTV.com

05-31-2015 10:18 BJT



China has rejected accusations by Ashton Carter that China's actions in the South China Sea are "out of step" with international rules. The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a six-point response on Saturday.

Spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China's sovereignty and rights in the area have a historical foundation, and do not require land reclamation as justification.

Second, construction on the Nansha islands - also called the Spratly islands by some countries- are within Chinese sovereignty and does not target any country. The spokeswoman explained that China is sticking to its path of peaceful development and its defensive security policy.

Third, Chinese construction is based on international needs and fulfils the responsibility and obligation China shoulders as a big nation. Hua Chunying said the construction will better serve regional countries for their sailing, disaster relief and fishing in the area.

Fourth, she noted that construction on islands and reefs have not caused and will not pose problems to air and sea navigation, but warned that countries should not abuse freedom of navigation.

Fifth, Hua explained that the code of conduct in the South China Sea should be negotiated between China and ASEAN nations. She called on countries outside the region such as the US to respect their efforts and not complicate the process.

Lastly, the spokeswoman said the South China Sea issue is not an issue between China and the US, as it does not concern the US. Hua urged the US to keep its promise not to take sides on territorial disputes, and stop making remarks that are harmful both to regional peace and stability AND to US-China relations.

 

[Aepsilons]

The United States has no choice but intervene as it is the Guarantor of peace and stability , preventing any power from enacting policies resemblant of Hegemony. In this regard the United States' presence in the region is as pertinent as the trade traversing through said region.

 

[TaiShang]

China is determined to guarantee peace and stability in the region despite US' relentless efforts to destabilize the region and over-securitize and militarize inter-Asian relationship.

This is a trend the US has no power to stop except writing some angry letters, delivering emotional but unconvincing speeches and watching China as it is busy with order and capacity building.

 

[terranMarine]

The US wants to get itself involved in a matter which doesn't have anything to do with the US in the first place. No legal basis whatsoever thus the only option left is to paint China as the regional threat to her neighbors and using excuses like ensuring the freedom of navigation. China not only has not threaten her neighbors nor has she denied the free access of these busy sea lanes. The US is the destabilizing factor in SCS

 

[Filipino]

Same side? There was little to no relationship between Manila and China at that time, since the former was an American Commonwealth. More or less, relations between Manila and Tokyo was stronger -- even during the occupation years -- your president, Jose P. Laurel , was an active collaborator with the Empire of Japan.

Btw, the same man, Jose P. Laurel, would offer amnesty to the very man whom you have on your avatar, Ferdinand E. Marcos. Laurel one commented on Marcos, "This man would change the Philippines and the future of this country."

If i recollect.

I was just speaking in broad terms, rather than a specific relationship between the two countries. I just think it's hilarious, in the context of the never-ending Chinese grudge against Japan, that some Chinese can fall into the same pattern of thinking as certain members of the IJA high command that led them into over-extending the Japanese Empire.

I meant no slight against Japan in that, I really didn't. Firstly, lots of rising powers have overextended themselves. If I hadn't chosen Japan 1937 (because it was ironic), I could have easily picked Germany 1914 or Paraguay 1864. Secondly, I don't hold any grudges from that era. Yesterday's enemies can be today's friends. I know a lot of Chinese (and even our other neighbors) think it's a sign of weakness that we could be so buddy-buddy with our two former colonizers and our former WW2 occupier. But come on, it's not like we did it opportunistically -- Filipino-Japanese relations started improving as soon as 1946. But I don't think I can convince any Chinese of this -- our mindsets and cultures might just be too different from each other. If we ever resolve the territorial disputes, whether in China's favor, the Philippines' favor, or somewhere in between, the Philippines will extend its hand in friendship, because that's just what we do. Being bitter and vengeful just doesn't suit us.

But yes, you are right, we had no direct relationship with either the KMT government in Chonqing or the CPC leadership Yan'an, since our foreign relations were handled by the US State Department. In fact, the direct relationship "we" did have was with Wang Jingwei's government in Nanking (I put 'we' in scarequotes because my family resisted the Second Republic and fought for the Americans)

As for Jose Laurel, he was from my province. Even though my grandfather was on the side of the US in the war, he remained personally devoted to the Laurels despite them being pro-Japanese -- he was a minor elected official from their political machine post-war and stayed loyal to the family for his whole life. He even campaigned for Jose's son Doy against the guy in my avatar (until Doy conceded to Corazon Aquino, that is)

 

[Aepsilons]

I was just speaking in broad terms, rather than a specific relationship between the two countries. I just think it's hilarious, in the context of the never-ending Chinese grudge against Japan, that some Chinese can fall into the same pattern of thinking as certain members of the IJA high command that led them into over-extending the Japanese Empire.

I meant no slight against Japan in that, I really didn't. Firstly, lots of rising powers have overextended themselves. If I hadn't chosen Japan 1937 (because it was ironic), I could have easily picked Germany 1914 or Paraguay 1864. Secondly, I don't hold any grudges from that era. Yesterday's enemies can be today's friends. I know a lot of Chinese (and even our other neighbors) think it's a sign of weakness that we could be so buddy-buddy with our two former colonizers and our former WW2 occupier. But come on, it's not like we did it opportunistically -- Filipino-Japanese relations started improving as soon as 1946. But I don't think I can convince any Chinese of this -- our mindsets and cultures might just be too different from each other. If we ever resolve the territorial disputes, whether in China's favor, the Philippines' favor, or somewhere in between, the Philippines will extend its hand in friendship, because that's just what we do. Being bitter and vengeful just doesn't suit us.

But yes, you are right, we had no direct relationship with either the KMT government in Chonqing or the CPC leadership Yan'an, since our foreign relations were handled by the US State Department. In fact, the direct relationship "we" did have was with Wang Jingwei's government in Nanking (I put 'we' in scarequotes because my family resisted the Second Republic and fought for the Americans)

As for Jose Laurel, he was from my province. Even though my grandfather was on the side of the US in the war, he remained personally devoted to the Laurels despite them being pro-Japanese -- he was a minor elected official from their political machine post-war and stayed loyal to the family for his whole life. He even campaigned for Jose's son Doy against the guy in my avatar (until Doy conceded to Corazon Aquino, that is)

There are various factors that the Philippine Government has to address, some of which include corruption cases within the ranks of the Senate, House of Representatives, the Provincial Level, to the Barangay Level. Specifically I refer to this system of "Hari Hari" that is so prolific in the country , which translates into vote buying and establishment of political dynasties as a source of family income / family businesses. Yes? These are kinds of nepotism that has affected many parts of the world, Asian included, and is not an isolated case in the Philippines. Even in Malaysia's UMNO lead leadership there are prolific cases of nepotism and undang undang culture (in the Malay word Undang means Law or Princehood, in the Filipino Bisaya the word Undang means stop/ cease/ desist).

Now, that said, despite these weaknesses in government transparency policies (tho the Philippines is moving in the right track) , one thing that I can see is the maturity of Filipinos in regards to national recuperative policies. For example, the Marcos Administration that was evicted from power in 1986 eventually was forgiven by the Filipino populace --- seen in the return of the Marcoses in the early 1990s. Not only was Marcos re-interred in Filipino soil, but his son, Ferdinand Marcos Jr (Bong Bong Marcos) is a Senator , and his daughter is the current Governor of Ilocos Norte Province. Yes? Its interesting how the Filipino people have adopted this 'ubuntu' concept , or a forgiveness culture.

 

[Zhukov]

A conflict in South China sea?
Complete destruction of East Asia. Irreparable Damage to Japan, China, South Korea. Almost Complete Destruction of Vietnam, Philipines, Taiwan and North Korea.
And our Beautiful Eastern Side of Asia the only power that rivals the American and European Economic prowess will be lost forever.

Outside Asia Pecific. Demage depends on level of interference from outside.
Like USA, Australia, India, Indonesia.

East Asians should stop behaving like school kids and Unite like Europeans are.

 

[Zhukov]

USA will won on this conflict.

USA will loose its super power status forever. If a war broke out with China. It will severly demage the american and chinese war machine to the extent that it will never be the same. Americans should understand that Rise of USA was a result of WW2 when other superpowers were in tatters due to war. US had time to consolidate itself and rise as the only remaining power. (Soviets never had a real chance to be honest)
And history will repeat itself. Their are lots of powers in the world that are waiting to be unleashed. Dont push them
And that will see the rise of multipolar world with many power centers like Europe, India, South America, Russia and central Asia, Asia Pacific.

 

[Aepsilons]

A conflict in South China sea?
Complete destruction of East Asia. Irreparable Damage to Japan, China, South Korea. Almost Complete Destruction of Vietnam, Philipines, Taiwan and North Korea.
And our Beautiful Eastern Side of Asia the only power that rivals the American and European Economic prowess will be lost forever.

Outside Asia Pecific. Demage depends on level of interference from outside.
Like USA, Australia, India, Indonesia.

East Asians should stop behaving like school kids and Unite like Europeans are.

I doubt a war would turn to nuclear. In a conventional-based apparatus, the conflict would be overwhelmingly one sided. This would lead to status quo ante bellum.